2007 at the Box Office

TerryRL

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Weekend Actuals

(3-day)
#1 "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" $114.7 million ($129.0 million)
#2 "Shrek the Third" $53.0 million ($203.4 million) -56%
#3 "Spider-Man 3" $14.3 million ($304.0 million) -51%
#4 "Bug" $3.2 million
#5 "Waitress" $3.1 million ($5.6 million) +184%
#6 "28 Weeks Later" $2.5 million ($23.7 million) -53%
#7 "Disturbia" $1.9 million ($74.4 million) -48%
#8 "Georgia Rule" $1.8 million ($16.3 million) -50%
#9 "Wild Hogs" $1.4 million ($163.3 million) +241%
#10 "Fracture" $1.3 million ($36.8 million) -44%

(4-day)
#1 "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" $139.8 million ($153.0 million)
#2 "Shrek the Third" 67.0 million ($217.3 million) -45%
#3 "Spider-Man 3" $18.1 million ($307.7 million) -38%
#4 "Bug" $4.01 million
#5 "Waitress" $4.00 million ($6.5 million) +270%
#6 "28 Weeks Later" $3.3 million ($24.4 million) -40%
#7 "Disturbia" $2.43 million ($74.9 million) -35%
#8 "Georgia Rule" $2.41 million ($16.8 million) -36%
#9 "Fracture" $1.6 million ($37.2 million) -28%
#10 "Wild Hogs" $1.5 million ($163.4 million) +276%

TOP TEN WORLDWIDE GROSSERS OF 2007 (thus far)...
#1 "Spider-Man 3" (Sony) $808.8 million
#2 "300" (WB) $440.2 million
#3 "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Disney) $404.0 million
#4 "Shrek the Third" (DreamWorks/Paramount) $239.3 million
#5 "Wild Hogs" (Disney) $238.3 million
#6 "Ghost Rider" (Sony) $224.8 million
#7 "Mr. Bean's Holiday" (Universal) $178.6 million
#8 "Norbit" (DreamWorks/Paramount) $158.0 million
#9 "Meet the Robinsons" (Disney) $148.2 million
#10 "Music & Lyrics" (WB) $144.6 million

"Spider-Man 3" has now tallied $501 million overseas, easily making it the biggest international performer of the franchise. With $808 million already in the bank, Spidey 3 is headed for a final global mark of more than $900 million. "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's World" pulled in $404 million worldwide during its first six days in theaters, which is a new record (besting the $382 million haul of Spidey 3). Pirates 3 is also expected to end up earning north of the $900 million plateau.

Overall, I think "Transformers" has a very good shot at taking the domestic crown this summer, but don't be surprised if "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" ends up putting up a very strong challenge for the worldwide trophy. Not only could this be the first year ever to have two films earn more than $900 million worldwide, it could also be the first to see three releases top the $800 million plateau globally. The summer of 2007 could definitely end up being one for the record books, despite what the "doom and gloomers" are saying.
 

Adam Lenhardt

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And Warner Bros. just declared war on Transformers:

Harry Potter 5 Moved Up Two Days!

Not only will this substantially drop the number of theaters Transformers has before it even makes it through a complete week, it positions Order of the Phoenix for a very strong early push to counter the inevitable drop off when Book 7 is released the following Saturday.
 

TerryRL

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The gamesmanship between the studios continues. Domestically, the Harry Potter franchise has been extremely successful, averaging about $280 million per-movie. Globally is really where the power of the series is most evident as the movies average out to $886 million worldwide per-movie in box office earnings.

If I was a betting man (thankfully I'm not
), I'd say that Harry Potter 5 will be the victor globally, but "Transformers" will earn more domestically. Again, I've been wrong before.
 

Adam Lenhardt

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It all depends if the movie feeds off the publicity for the book or is diluted by it. If there's a really Harry Potter feeding frenzy in July, I could see it doing the best yet. At the same time, I could see the book stealing the film's thunder domestically — especially if something unpopular happens like Harry dying.
 

DavidPla

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I know Michael Bay was aiming to push "Transformers" up 2 days and maybe now the studio will consent to that.
 

Kevin Grey

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I don't really see Warner's move as anything directed at Transformers. Steeling away theaters during two days in the middle of the week really isn't going to have much, if any, impact on Transformers' gross. It was going to lose those theaters anyway during weekend when it really counts.

I see the HP move in severalways:

1) Warners wants to remove themselves from this opening weekend madness. Move to a five day opening and you don't risk perception of disappointment if the movie doesn't challenge Spidey 3 for a 3 day opening crown.

2) They think the movie is really strong and want to get as much postive word of mouth going into the weekend. The fact that Yates has already been signed for HP6 also speaks to Warner's confidence in this installment.

3) As Adam points out, try to make as much money as possible before the seventh book hits.
 

Adam_S

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Kevin nailed the reasons on the head with his three points I think.

To me Transformers is coming across alot like Godzilla, I keep looking for a little robot mexican dog on taco bell commercials. I think it can still make a lot of money, but I don't see it winning the summer, and I think folks are setting themselves up for dissappointment if the movie doesn't make 350+

On the other hand at my Pirates screening there was applause after the trailer (also for Ratatouile but more forced) and a black kid behind me said, "Damn! when they applaud previews you know da movie is gonna be fuckin' tight."

I've been expecting Harry Potter to move up a couple days for a while now, I'm surprised they waited so long to do so.

And as Adam suggested, perfect storm conditions are possible for Potter 5 that could result in it surprising everyone and outgrossing the first film. What would be truly unexpected is if it won the summer. If that happens, expect WB to sign Yates for movie seven within weeks of movie six starting shooting.
 

Robert Anthony

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I don't see how. That'd make it a Monday opening. He's already opening ON 4th of July. Maybe some midnight screenings Tuesday night, or an 8pm screening, but there's really nowhere for him to MOVE BACK TO.

July 4th is historically (but not money-wise anymore) the prime seat for the summer movie season. He's right where he wants to be. Moving it back makes no sense and there's nowhere to move it to.
 

TerryRL

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Bay actually wants the movie to be moved up to the 3rd, the day before the 4th of July, but the studio is so far not going for it. DreamWorks and Paramount are after Spidey 2's Independence Day opening records.

I also agree that "Transformers" feels a lot like ID4 in how many people are excited for it. Every time I've seen the trailer on the big screen, there has been a very positive reaction to it. Not only could this end up being the top domestic performer of the summer, but will no doubt become the biggest hit Bay has ever had.

As for Harry Potter, the movie is going to have a fat opening. Where things will get interesting is if this one has legs. Of the four previous outings, two of them had solid legs ('The Sorcerer's Stone' and 'The Goblet of Fire'), while the other pair ('The Chamber of Secrets' and 'The Prisoner of Azkaban') fell off at faster than expected rates. Other than gigantic openings, the most consistent thing about the franchise is how well each film performs overseas.

Whether or not 'Order of the Phoenix' earns more than $250 million domestically, its going to do obscene business internationally. I fully expect Harry Potter 5 and Pirates 3 to join Spidey 3 in earning well north of the $500 million mark in overseas box office receipts.

By the way, Harry Potter 5's worldwide earnings could push the series past James Bond as the biggest franchise in Hollywood history. Bond is currently sitting on a worldwide haul of $4.3 billion from its 21 film cycle, followed by Star Wars with $4.2 billion in global earnings from its 6 movie arc. If HP5 earns a little more than $800 million worldwide, it will give the series the crown of biggest Hollywood movie franchise.
 

Holadem

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The way these guys are redefining "opening", we could soon be hearing stuff like "Spiderman 4 made a staggering $342 during it's 19-day opening".

Evidently these guys try to make as much coin as possible, but I am getting the impression that there is an active drive to beat records now? Is this a relatively new phenomenon or am I just projecting my new found interest in these matters?

--
H
 

TerryRL

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Nope, you're right. This is relatively new.

It heated up last year when Disney took the top spot with 'Dead Man's Chest'. Sony and Disney have had a sort of pissing contest with one another for year, but that (the opening of Pirates 2) sort of took things to a new level.
 

Kevin Grey

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This stuff gets a lot of coverage in the mainstream news media. And if the perception gets out there that an opening was a disappointment then it can hurt a film's second weekend just as much as poor word of mouth. The flip side is that "record breaking opening" makes people want to see what all of the fuss is about.
 

Adam Lenhardt

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The problem is that this summer has six or seven movies that would automatically inherit the "king of the summer" title in other years. They're doing better than ever before but thus being labelled disappointments.
 

TerryRL

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Fox is expecting big numbers with "The Simpsons Movie". Fox execs will be pleased with anything over $100 million domestically.
 

Pete-D

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I think there Simpsons will have a big opening weekend, because the show has amassed a lot of fans over its tenure.

But probably a sharp drop-off after that. Knocked Up again is my pick for the surprise hit of the summer, I expect a reasonable opening frame followed with good legs.
 

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