2007 at the Box Office (3 Viewers)

[Jose Martinez]

1. POTC: AWE $112M 3-day weekend $126M total gross so far
2. Shek the 3rd $51M 3-day weekend $201M total so far
3. SM3 $13.7M 3-day weekend $303M total so far


I don't think I can remember seeing the top 3 have those kind of total grosses!

 

[Lou Sytsma]

Tsk, tsk. Come on guys, you continue to underestimate the power of family movies!

 

[TerryRL]

The full list of 3-day and 4-day studio estimates will be posted tomorrow.

Pirates 3 pulled in $112.5 million during the Friday-thru-Sunday portion of its opening, good enough for fifth on the all-time list behind Spidey 3 ($151.1 million), Pirates 2 ($135.6 million), Shrek 3 ($121.6 million), and the first Spidey flick ($114.8 million). Counting the Thursday night previews, the movie has so far tallied $126.5 million, earning a stellar per-theater average of $25,801 from its whopping 4,362 locations. Had Disney not opted for the Thursday night previews, the movie would've earned the third best opening in history instead of placing fifth.

Pirates 3 opened about as strong as many predicted Pirates 2 would last year. I do think its a bit odd how some are trying to paint the opening as "disappointing". When you open with one of the top five biggest opening weekends in history, there's nothing at all disappointing about that. The movie did fail to meet the inflated expectations of some in the industry, but I seriously doubt Disney is shedding any tears over the film's performance this weekend, especially considering that it is now the biggest Memorial Day Weekend opening in history. Given the very strong exit polling (grades ranging from A- to B+), look for Pirates 3 to have a solid run in theaters during the coming weeks.

Overseas, Pirates 3 pulled in $205.5 million since its Wednesday opening, giving it a worldwide tally of $332 million. By the end of Monday, the film will have passed the $350 million mark in global earnings. The first Pirates movie ('Curse of the Black Pearl') pulled in nearly $654 million worldwide, while Pirates 2 ('Dead Man's Chest') earned a phenomenal $1.06 billion globally. Pirates 3 is expected to end up earning very close to what Pirates 2 pulled in internationally.

Despite taking a steep 58% hit in business, "Shrek the Third" posted the fastest time to the double-century mark for an animated movie. The CG animated comedy took just ten days to do it, a day faster than the previous record-holder "Shrek 2". Shrek 3 also became the 13th film in history to post second weekend earnings of more than $50 million.

While Shrek 3 won't have the legs that "Shrek 2" had, the movie is still well on its way to becoming only the fourth animated flick in history to earn more than $300 million domestically, joining "Shrek 2" ($441.2 million), "Finding Nemo" ($339.7 million), and "The Lion King" ($328.5 million).

"Spider-Man 3" was third as it saw another 50%-plus decline this weekend (53%). Still, the movie became the first '07 release to top the triple-century mark as it looks headed for a final mark in the area of $330-$340 million. Worldwide, Spidey 3 has tallied a mammoth $802.4 million and is days away from passing the $821.7 million haul of the first Spidey flick to become the biggest global performer of the franchise. The movie is still on pace to become the first movie of the series to top the $900 million mark in worldwide box office earnings.

 

[TheBat]

it was a tough call with 3 big movies in may.. on which film would do the best. I guess since spidey 3 opened first and had two weeks of no real competition.

I am thinking there is going to be some movie that will be the surprise hit of the summer.. maybe the simpsons movie or something.

Jacob

 

[TerryRL]

Don't overlook "Transformers". I think that flick is going to be huge.

 

[MikeRS]

When you have Drudge linking to Sony puppet Nikki Finke (she claimed it might be the first 200 million weekend ever ), that's what you get.


I haven't seen Pirates 3, but I'm not as optimistic as Terry seems to be about it's boxoffice prospects. Oh, it's gonna do well. But I believe there is a Pirates fatigue in full effect (Saturday and Sunday numbers foreshadow, IMHO. Saturday, particularly, dropped from Friday even when you don't take midnights into account. Not good.).

This isn't really a bold prediction, but I'll say it anyway.

Pirates 3 will fall way short of Pirates 2..


And movie gods exist if Ratatouille beats any of the May titans in the long run.

 

[TerryRL]

"Ratatouille" will do really well and is already the favorite to snag Pixar their third Oscar for Best Animated Feature Film (joining past winners "Finding Nemo" and "The Incredibles") early next year. To date, Pixar's lone $300 million-plus performer is "Finding Nemo". Most pundits think "Ratatouille" will end up becoming Pixar's fourth $250 million-plus earner (joining "Finding Nemo", "The Incredibles", and "Monsters, Inc."), but not a lot think it will have enough juice to top the triple-century mark.

As always, we won't really know until the movie hits theaters and see what kind of legs it has after its initial opening weekend. Still, no one predicted that "Finding Nemo" would end up being the biggest summer release of '03, topping the likes of "The Matrix Reloaded" and 'X2'.

As for Pirates 3, while I do think the movie will have a solid run in theaters, there's no way it'll come close to what Pirates 2 earned domestically, but I do think it will earn more than Pirates 1 did ($305.4 million). I'm thinking something in the neighborhood of $325-$350 million depending on its legs. Overseas is another story though, I think Pirates 3 will be as successful as Pirates 2, if not more.

I think Pirates will perform much like Spidey 3 currently is overseas. While Spidey 3 won't come close to either Spidey 1 ($403.7 million) or Spidey 2 ($373.6 million) domestically, it is going to become the biggest worldwide hit of the franchise. Becoming the first Spidey flick to top the $900 million mark worldwide. I think Pirates 3 could also end up earning north of the $900 million plateau based on its performance overseas. I could be way off, but that's what the numbers are telling me thus far.

 

[Ray Chuang]

Like I said earlier, if it looks anything like a decent movie, Transformers could make way over US$275 million, if only for the "cool" factor of seeing a "live" version of them.

 

[DavidPla]

Which would be an achievement in of itself. Considering that the other two franchises that filmed their second and third back to back and released them in less than a year apart were "Back to the Future: Part III" and "The Matrix Revolutions" which both failed to top their original or their sequel.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

If my personal experience was any case, definitely. But it's tracking an A- from exit polling, which is phenomenal. I could see it shedding theaters fast though because of the long running time.

 

[TerryRL]

That's a good point David, but with a 4.5 day start of about $150 million, Pirates 3 is in a much stronger position than either "Back to the Future Part III" or "The Matrix Revolutions". Next weekend will be very telling in how strong a run Disney can expect from the movie.

 

[DavidJ]

Ditto for me, but the fate of one of the mains was my least favorite thing about the movie. I had a ton of fun watching this.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Yup - it has that Independence Day slam-bang must-see feel about it. Heck, I couldn't care less about the Transformers toys - in fact, the subject is a turn-off for me - but I'm looking forward to the flick!

 

[Colin Jacobson]

It's not that I underestimate the family movie audience, it's just that I don't get a lot of buzz from this one. Of course, I wouldn't have thought Finding Nemo would've done so well either, so I could be wrong. I still just don't think Rat will challenge for the year's BO crown...

 

[Kevin Grey]

It's not underestimating- it's looking at Pixar's track record. Right now Finding Nemo is the anomaly at $340 million- the rest of their catalog has been grossing in the $200s. And even should Ratatouille do Nemo type numbers, it's questionable whether that would even put it on top this summer.

 

[Robert Anthony]

Transformers does MINIMUM 145 over the 5 day 4th of July weekend. Whoever compared it to Independence Day is right on. Hell, it's almost 10 years exactly SINCE Independence Day, right?

Adam: It's Knocked UP, not Knocked OUT.

 

[Adam_S]

I also think the actuals for today will also be telling for how Pirates' legs perform. If it outdoes expectations by performing significantly above average in terms of Memorial day percentage fall off then that could indicate a much longer run than the other two of the trips.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Whoops! Must have had boxing on the brain...

 

[TerryRL]

Memorial Day Holiday Estimates

(3-day)
#1 "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" $115.1 million ($129.1 million)
#2 "Shrek the Third" $53.0 million ($203.3 million) -56%
#3 "Spider-Man 3" $14.2 million ($303.8 million) -51%
#4 "Bug" $3.3 million
#5 "Waitress" $3.1 million ($5.6 million) +184%
#6 "28 Weeks Later" $2.5 million ($23.7 million) -54%
#7 "Disturbia" $1.9 million ($74.4 million) -48%
#8 "Georgia Rule" $1.8 million ($16.3 million) -50%
#9 "Fracture" $1.2 million ($36.7 million) -47%
#10 "Wild Hogs" $1.1 million ($162.9 million) +159%

(4-day)
#1 "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" $142.1 million ($156.1 million)
#2 "Shrek the Third" $69.1 million ($219.4 million) -43%
#3 "Spider-Man 3" $18.0 million ($307.6 million) -38%
#4 "Bug" $4.2 million
#5 "Waitress" $4.0 million ($6.5 million) +270%
#6 "28 Weeks Later" $3.3 million ($24.4 million) -39%
#7 "Disturbia" $2.4 million ($74.9 million) -36%
#8 "Georgia Rule" $2.3 million ($16.8 million) -36%
#9 "Fracture" $1.6 million ($37.1 million) -30%
#10 "Wild Hogs" $1.4 million ($163.3 million) +241%

The studios enjoyed the biggest Memorial Day holiday frame the industry has ever seen this weekend. The top ten films pulled in nearly $250 million, resulting in a 8% increase in business over last year's Memorial Day frame which saw "X-Men: The Last Stand" get out of the gates with its then-record haul of $122.9 million. Business was also up 11% over 2005's holiday weekend where "Star Wars: Episode III- Revenge of the Sith" repeated as the nation's top box office draw (with a four-day mark of $70 million) despite powerful openings by both "Madagascar" ($61 million) and "The Longest Yard" ($58.6 million). This weekend also marks the first time in history the industry has had back-to-back weekends where the top film pulled in more than $100 million.

2007's year-to-date mark now stands at a scorching $3.655 billion, representing a 7% increase over '06 ($3.412 billion), an impressive 12% stronger than '05 ($3.253 billion), 5% stronger than '04 ($3.476 billion), and a nearly 9% improvement over '03 ($3.369 billion).

In terms of overall ticket sales, '07 has so far sold about 546 million theater admissions. Compared to past years at this point, '06 had moved 518 million admissions, '05 had sold 508 million, '04 had moved nearly 560 million, while '03 had sold about 559 million.

The industry believes that this summer could be the first that earns over $4 billion. 2004 currently holds the record at $3.95 billion (selling 636 million admissions during the May-to-Labor Day frame). There is also hope that this summer tops 2002's record number of summer admissions sold. That year sold an incredible 653.4 million tickets (earning $3.796 billion for the summer), if '07 were to sell that amount its summer tally would translate to a whopping $4.378 billion. It'll be very interesting to see if '07 can top the $4 billion mark.

This weekend saw Disney earn the biggest Memorial Day frame opening in history as "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" easily dominated the marketplace. The movie pulled in a four-day tally of $142.1 million, besting last year's record by close to $20 million. The movie's $27 million estimated booty on Monday will also give the film the best mark ever for a Memorial Day, passing the $23.4 million haul of "Shrek 2" three years ago.

For the Friday-thru-Sunday portion of the weekend, the film pulled in $115.1 million, giving it the fourth best debut mark in history behind "Spider-Man 3" ($151.1 million), "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" ($135.6 million), and "Shrek the Third" ($121.6 million), while coming in just ahead of "Spider-Man" ($114.8 million).

Counting Thursday night previews, the movie earned $129.1 million through Sunday, which would've been good enough for third all-time had Disney not opted to move the film's release up by four hours. In four-and-a-half days, Pirates 3 has amassed a whopping $156.1 million, selling an impressive 23.3 million theater admissions. The movie's stellar per-theater averages came in at $26,377 for the three-day portion of the weekend, and $32,566 for the four days. The movie opened in a record-shattering 4,362 locations, translating to more than 11,000 prints.

Pirates 3's four-day holiday mark of $142.1 million (21.2 million admissions) ranks as the as fourth best four-day tally in history behind "Spider-Man 3" ($161.4 million/24.1 million admissions), 'Revenge of the Sith' ($158.5 million/24.8 million admissions), and Pirates 2 ($153.8 million/23.4 million admissions). Here is a daily breakdown of Pirates 3's grosses...

Thursday: $14 million (thirteenth best all-time)
Friday: $43 million (fourth best all-time)
Saturday: $38.2 million (seventh best all-time)
Sunday: $33.8 million (sixth best all-time)
Monday: $27 million (second best all-time/best all-time for Memorial Day)

Initially, some were calling the opening "disappointing", but the movie's exit polling (ranging from grades of A- to B+) indicates that the movie may end up having slightly stronger legs than either Spidey 3 or Shrek 3 (both films ranged from grades of B+ to B). Next weekend will give a clearer indication of how strong the film will play in the coming weeks. If the $300 million-budgeted flick can avoid a 60%-plus decline, than it should be in decent shape. We'll see what happens.

Overseas, Pirates 3 earned the best worldwide launch in history, amassing a whopping $401.1 million tally during its first six days (besting the $382 million mark of "Spider-Man 3"). The movie has already earned $245 million overseas (passing the $232 million tally of Spidey 3 after six days) and Disney execs are expecting a very healthy run from international markets. Pirates 2 pulled in an overseas mark of $642.3 million, earning $1.06 billion worldwide.

While Pirates 3 likely won't come near Pirates 2's $423.3 million domestic haul, it has a better shot at matching (or even bettering) that film's overseas earnings. A final worldwide booty north of $900 million could be in the cards for Pirates 3. If that happens, Pirates would join The Lord of the Rings as the only other film franchise to have two movies earn more than $900 million worldwide (LOTR saw both 'The Two Towers' and 'The Return of the King' accomplish that feat). Disney's theme park attraction has turned into one of the most lucrative franchises the film industry has ever seen.

DreamWorks/Paramount's "Shrek the Third" earned a four-day haul of $69.1 million, giving the film a stellar mark of $219.4 million after 11 days in theaters. The movie passed the double-century plateau in only 10 days, establishing a new record for animated movies, passing the mark a day faster than previous record-holder "Shrek 2". The movie's three-day haul of $53 million was 56% off from last weekend's record mark of $121.6 million, but this was to be expected. Shrek 3 has fallen behind the pace of "Shrek 2", but remains ahead of the first one.

DreamWorks/Paramount execs are now expecting "Shrek the Third" to have little difficulty in becoming only the fourth animated film in history to top the $300 million domestic mark, joining "Shrek 2" ($441.2 million), "Finding Nemo" ($339.7 million), and "The Lion King" ($328.5 million).

Sony's "Spider-Man 3" pulled in $18 million during the holiday weekend, giving it a whopping $307.6 million tally after 25 days in theaters. The movie passed the triple-century mark on its 24th day in theaters, which is sixth best all-time behind Pirates 2 (16 days), 'Revenge of the Sith' (17 days), "Shrek 2" (18 days), Spidey 2 (19 days), and Spidey 1 (22 days).

After the movie's record-shattering debut, it has fallen off at a much faster rate than either of its two predecessors. Still, a final tally of $335-$345 million is now expected. Where the movie is really making a killing is overseas. Spidey 3 has so far tallied just under $500 million overseas, the most of the franchise, giving it a worldwide haul of $806.7 million. Spidey 3 is now days away from passing the $821.7 million global gross of the first Spidey flick to become the most successful movie of the franchise in worldwide box office receipts. The movie is expected to eventually top the $900 million mark.

Lionsgate's "Bug" tallied $4.2 million over the holiday, earning only a $2,528 per-theater average from its 1,661 locations. This one will probably fade very fast from theaters.

Fox Searchlight's "Waitress" saw a massive 270% increase in business as it entered 394 more theaters. The film's impressive per-theater average of $7,843 (from only 510 locations) was the third best of the top ten behind Pirates 3 and Shrek 3 ($16,559 for the holiday frame). The comedy has now earned $6.5 million and could be on course to becoming a sleeper hit for its studio.

Fox Atomic's "28 Weeks Later" is sitting on a domestic haul of $24.4 million. DreamWorks/Paramount's "Disturbia" has tallied just under $75 million. Universal's "Georgia Rule" has so far pulled in only $16.8 million. New Line's "Fracture" has now earned $37.1 million. Disney's "Wild Hogs" amazingly re-enters the top ten. The comedy smash saw a whopping 241% increase while losing 86 theaters. Its theater-count is currently only 426. The film has now earned $163.3 million.

Next weekend Pirates 3 will face challenges from Universal's "Knocked Up" and MGM's "Mr. Brooks" for the top spot, while Picturehouse's "Gracie" launches in about 1,000 theaters. The big question is how fat a percentage decline Pirates 3 will have in weekend #2? Both "Knocked Up" and "Mr. Brooks" are expected to have solid debuts and challenge for the #2 slot.

 

[Jonathan_]

Close. ID4 launched in July '96. I remember my local theater did 24 hour showings for the first week. It was the must see movie that summer.