2007 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[WadeLil]

The more i look outside aswell as inside trends affecting the movie industry.Im leaning in one direction more and more......THIS WILL BE THE SUMMER OF DISSAPOINTMENTS AT THE BOXOFFICE.Its just a feeling i have that wont go away.There wont be any 400 mill grossing movies this summer.Its just way too congested for that.Im also getting to the point that there wont be anymore 300 mill grossings after spidey.Im probally wrong but thats what word of mouth is leading me to believe.

 

[TerryRL]

I think there will be a $400 million-plus earner this summer. If Spidey 3 had been more universally loved, it would've had no problem clearing that amount. Still, despite a mixed reception the movie will still easily clear $300 mil (maybe even $350 mil). Shrek 3 will probably clear $350 mil, becoming only the second animated feature to do so (joining "Shrek 2"). I saw it yesterday with my kids and theater was packed with kids and they absolutely ate it up.

I think if any movie is going to clear $400 mil, it'll be Pirates 3. I also think this summer will see more $300 million-plus earners than any summer before it. I think Spidey 3, Shrek 3, Pirates 3, Harry Potter, and "Transformers" will all clear that amount. People were talking about the "Transformers" trailer as they were leaving the theater. The last time I saw that was when the 'Phantom Menace' trailer debuted.

So far, this summer has gotten off to a blistering start and next weekend looks to be the biggest Memorial Day frame in history. I think Summer '07 will definitely be one for the books, but that's just me.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

All Star Wars years will be off years; there are no more films. And they'll rerelease the DVDs with Indy IV...it's a significant revenue stream. And an untapped one for decades. I believe they are hoping to reinvigorate it.

So it seems Shrek 3 (which will make in the mid-40's on Sat, and Fri numbers for Sunday) will make about $110M. Quite a big opening, and what they expected. I wonder how it'll hold, with Pirates opening in a week.

 

[DavidPla]

It's interesting the amount of sequels that are also MANY years later from when the last film in the series was released. We've got the Star Wars prequels coming off of a 16 year gap, Rocky with a 16 year gap, Die Hard with a 12 year, Living Dead with a 20 year, Indiana Jones with a 19 year, Rambo with a 20 year, Dark Crystal with a 26 (!) year gap... any I'm forgetting? Has there ever been this many franchises resurrected after so many years? I can only really remember Psycho with its 23 year gap.

 

[MikeRS]

Watch Lucasfilm release 3-D Star Wars in cinemas right on the eve of the live action TV premiere.

It ain't over yet.

Synergy baby!

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Does anyone think 'Pirates' has a shot at the opening weekend record? It is rumored to have a longer running time than the already pretty long 'Dead Man's Chest'.

 

[Patrick H.]

Does it strike anybody else that there seems to be a strange lack of hype for 'Pirates', considering it's less than a week away? It seems like I've only seen one trailer and a teaser poster, and that's it. No early reviews...not much promotional stuff floating around online.

Is Disney hedging its bets that the franchise is still fresh on everybody's minds following last year? Because the current level of buzz feels like the movie is still a couple of months off, not a couple of days...

 

[Nathan V]

Pirates III is 168 minutes and 23 seconds (Courtesy of the BBFC).

Do we know the runtime for Transformers?

By the way the new Yahoo trailer for Transformers is beyond astounding. 2 hours of camera angles, baby!

Regards,
Nathan

 

[TerryRL]

Reviews for Pirates 3 should begin flooding the net during the next few days. The television spots are now running in heavy rotation and Disney probably feels that they don't need to do much in the way of hyping the movie. The awareness for Pirates is extremely high. We'll see how right they were when it opens on Thursday night.

The final run time for "Transformers" won't be revealed until Bay delivers his final cut. From what I understand he's still doing some tweaking to the material and ILM still has some FX shots to deliver.

 

[Patrick Sun]

It's weird, but everytime I've seen the trailer for Transformers at the theaters, there's always someone clapping in enthusiasm or cheering for it.

 

[TerryRL]

Same here. All three trailers have received great ovations every single time I've seen them on the big screen. This latest trailer got a great reaction from the "Shrek the Third" audience I saw it with on Friday, rivaling the teaser's reaction at the Pirates 2 midnight premiere last year. The shot of Starscream transforming and flying away, as well as the hero shot of Optimus Prime drew the biggest "oohs", "aahs" and "yeahs!".

Like I said before, a lot of the crowd was buzzing about that trailer as they were leaving the theater.

I think this movie is going to be huge.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

That Starscream shot (actually, all THREE of his money shots) is a thing of kinetic beauty. My wife loves his "flying in and turning before crashing into the cars" shot. It's the best trailer I've seen since the youtube 300 that used NIN music, and that didn't hit theaters. I assume this trailer was with Shrek 3, so it should have wide exposure. I can't imagine being a typical Shrek audience age and not completely losing my shit over the trailer.

 

[TerryRL]

Well said.

The trailer will be seen by millions this weekend and next as it will also run with Pirates 3. There is talk at DreamWorks and Paramount that "Transformers" could seriously challenge the first "Spider-Man" for the record of biggest non-sequel (or prequel) opening. The buzz is that high on the movie right now.

Even if it doesn't match Spidey's $114.8 million launch, studio execs are still expecting"Transformers" to become only the second non-sequel (or prequel) to open with more than $100 million. Of the eight films (counting Shrek 3) that have opened with more than $100 million, the first Spidey adventure remains the only one that isn't a sequel or prequel.

I think this is why DreamWorks and Paramount are a little hesitant to open the movie on July 3rd, which is what Bay has been insisting on for a while now. They REALLY want Spidey 1's record. Opening a day early might hurt the film's chances at it. Many point to 'Revenge of the Sith' opening on a Thursday instead of Friday. Had it opened on Friday it would've easily snagged Spidey's then-record opening. Remember, Sith pulled in more than $124 million during its first three days (Thursday-thru-Saturday) in theaters.

The studio will probably relent a little and have shows beginning at 8 PM, much like Disney is doing with Pirates 3. At the end of the day I don't think its going to really matter. The movie is going to have a huge opening regardless if it debuts on Thursday or Friday.

 

[Malcolm R]

July 3 is a Tuesday, so whether it opens on July 3 or July 4 neither would be part of the weekend gross which would accumulate over July 6-8.

 

[Tim Glover]

I was thinking about this earlier this month regarding the gigantic box office expectations for this summer. Granted, Spidey 3 was HUGE in it's opening, and Shrek 3's appears to be strong too. But anytime the expectations are that high, there's bound to be some of those films disappointing. If I remember right, 2005 was said to be one that would break records and eventhough the years's biggest gave us huge hits like:

Revenge of the Sith: $380 M
Narnia: $292 M
Goblet Of Fire: $290 M
War Of The Worlds: $234 M
King Kong: $218

And other solid hits in Batman Begins, Charlie & The Chocolate Factory, & Mr. & Mrs. Smith....2005 didn't meet expectations.

Such is the life of big budget films and hype.

 

[Kevin Grey]

That's my point- I bet that Star Wars will still outsell Indy merchandise even with a new Indy film in the marketplace. I don't think there's much to reinvigorate- none of the Indy tie-in products have had much traction in the marketplace at least since Temple of Doom. Just look at the summer of '89- it was Batman T-Shirts, posters, soundtracks, etc that permeated everything, not Last Crusade stuff.

There were a lot of Indy books for a time but they never stuck like SW novels do so everything was dropped. Same for comic books. There have been periodic videogames but, again, nothing has stuck since Fate of Atlantis. Sure the DVDs will get a nice boost but nothing to the point where Lucas *needed* Indy IV.

Again, if Lucas is really that desperate for licensing revenue then he should be fast tracking the various TV series that have been discussed. But he's not even doing that- they're still in development but seemingly at least two years off.

 

[TerryRL]

Malcolm, my bad. Wrong Spidey flick. The studio wants the record of Spidey 2 (being the biggest Independence Day opening in history). Regardless, I'm still of the opinion that "Transformers" will have a fat showing during the three day portion of its opening.

And if Lucas was so desperate for more merchandise money, he'd just continue to do Star Wars films. The Indy franchise, while huge, has never moved a lot of merchandise. Lucas just really enjoys making those movies. He's said in the past that his time making the Indy films was far more enjoyable than when he did the original Star Wars movies.

With 'A New Hope', he had constantly had the crew, as well as the studio, second guessing him. He had EVERYTHING on the line with Empire, and his marriage fell apart during the making of Jedi. I read once that he considered the making of the Indy movies to be "paid vacations".

 

[Chuck Mayer]

I didn't say he was desperate for revenue (so please stop using that word in refutations), but I don't think he wanted every LFL egg in one (Star Wars) basket. The fans have gotten older, and he wants to see what is up with their interest. Another Indy DVD release won't do much. I bet SW merch goes up in 2008 as well...a rising tide lifts all boats. That's part of the decisionmaking. He has a large company to run, and SW annual revenue is on the decline (not drastically, but 2005 was the peak).

 

[Shawn.F]

According to Showbizdata.com $48 mil on Saturday for Shrek 3.

 

[Kevin Grey]

The way you highlighted needs makes desperate a perfectly suitable substitute.

If you really didn't mean that then, fine, but I certainly think it was a fair interpretation of your original comments.

EDIT- So let me see if I can clarify- are you saying that it's Lucas, not Spielberg, that is the prime driver for a new Indy film?

 

[Holadem]

Chuck, I can't muster the drive to engage in this argument, but for what it's worth, I entirely agree with you (though I seem to be the only one ).

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H