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Discussion in 'Movies' started by TerryRL, Nov 2, 2006.
Its OK Tim, you are allowed the occasional SW prequel flashback.
It's interesting that the actuals were lower. $58 million was right around what many on here were predicting.
It dropped 62 percent this weekend with no competition. Shrek 3 will definitely hurt it next weekend (especially the pivotal Saturday gross). And then 'Pirates' enters the following weekend. It won't be any kind of walk in the park. I personally don't see Spidey3 matching it's predecessor's domestic gross. My forecast is 320-330 million (which is obviously still great). The Clash of The Titans has only begun!
Yeah, and most of it is probably still in its original packaging, stored away in nerds' basements.
That's a slanderous comment - they're in the attic!
Adam, I am no expert, but the minute I saw the estimate of $60.0M, I knew they had slightly overestimated (they won't push it 4 million for a round number, but 2...easy choice for them). It never rounds that smooth, unless they are slighting tweaking the numbers. Same for whatever was #2, when it was estimated at 10.0M, actual was single digits.
"Shrek the Third" will open in 4,122 locations this weekend representing the sixth widest release in history behind "Spider-Man 3" (4,252), "Shrek 2" (4,163), "Spider-Man 2" (4,152), Pirates 2 (4,133), and "Madagascar" (4,131). DreamWorks and Paramount are said to be unleashing about 9,000 prints this weekend as Shrek 3 looks to break the record of its predecessor by becoming the biggest opening animated film in history. Even if the movie doesn't snag the record (which stands at $108 million), its still expected to open with no less than $100 million. Spidey 3 is expected to take another steep decline this weekend and pull in between $25-$28 million. By the end of this weekend, the movie will have pulled in more than $275 million.
Prediction: The next opening weekend record will be set by Indy 4 next year. -- H
Not sure I agree. Lucasfilm (at least with the PT) doesn't seem to open their pictures on enough screens to generate that kind of dough. Plus, I think many people will stay away from Indy 4 until they hear good word of mouth. Just today, some work colleagues were bemoaning the fact that Harrison was too old, etc. I can't even get these people to watch Rocky Balboa because they think there's no way they'd like it. I can see the same thing happening with Indy 4.
If Indy IV did break the record it would be in keeping with the previous two films of the franchise. 'Temple of Doom' set the opening record in '84 (becoming the first movie in history to debut with more than $25 million), before "Beverly Hills Cop II" dethroned it three years later. 1989 saw 'The Last Crusade' set the opening mark before being dethroned by "Ghostbusters II" a mere two weeks later (by only $118K). "Batman" would take the record the following week with its then-unheard of $40 million launch.
Indy IV will open huge, but I don't see it breaking the record. It doesn't have traction with the prime moviegoers this generation. Not like Pirates or Spidey do. I don't think it matters how many screens it's on. It'll have a BIG opening, but nothing insane. Chris, I whine about Indy IV (because it's a waste of time and talent for Spielberg), but I'll still go with an open mind. I don't whine because I don't think it'll be good. I think it'll be good enough, and it can't be worse than a lot of what hit theaters in summers. But I don't see it beating $148M (or whatever). Not even 70% of that.
With this summer having a record of sequels being released, would 1989 be a record of sequels as well?
1989 had ten high profile sequels (seven of which were summer releases)... -"Back to the Future Part II" -"Christmas Vacation" -"Fletch Lives" -"Ghostbusters" II -"Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade" -"The Karate Kid Part III" -"Lethal Weapon 2" -"License to Kill" -"A Nightmare on Elm Street 5: Dream Child" -"Star Trek V: The Final Frontier" This year has 20 high profile sequels (12 of them being summer releases)... -"28 Weeks Later" -"Alien vs. Predator: Survival of the Fittest" -"Are We Done Yet?" -"The Bourne Ultimatum" -"Evan Almighty" -"Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer" -"The Golden Age" -"Hannibal Rising" -"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" -"The Hills Have Eyes 2" -"Hostel 2" -"Live Free or Die Hard" -"National Treasure: Book of Secrets" -"Ocean's Thirteen" -"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" -"Resident Evil: Extinction" -"Rush Hour 3" -"Saw IV" -"Shrek the Third" -"Spider-Man 3" This is the year of the sequel. 1989 was big for its time, but nothing compared to this.
Well, I sure don't think it's a waste of time for Lucas, Ford or Spielberg, because if they get it right it will be a great film. My concern is that they won't get it right. But it's definitely worth the time and effort.
Crazy..! Thanks Terry. As a fan of sequels, I like this year and 1989 quite a bit! Agreed. If there wasn't more to tell, I don't think Spielberg would be wasting his time. I mean, he sure as hell doesn't need the money or the accolades anymore.
1989 is also my favorite years for movies. everytime I went to the movies, I would see a better movie then the one before.. that was how great it was. Jacob
That's my biggest source of optimism for the project. Of the three the only one who arguably needs a hit is Ford and even then he is financially set for the rest of his life. And it's been, what, half a decade since they seriously started talking the project? So it's not some on a whim flight of fancy either. Hopefully they are only moving forward now because all of the elements finally into place.
This weekend Shrek 3 opens. I had said a few pages back what I think, but I will state this clearly: yes, it should win the weekend.. maybe it will have big numbers, but I expect MONUMENTAL dropoffs day by day as word gets out about the quality of this film.
Didn't people say the same thing about Spiderman 3 two weeks ago? Big line at the local theater as I was driving home tonight.
Kirk and Michael Douglas used to get asked all the time "Do you ever have any plans to do a movie with your son/father?" and the answer was always "We would love to, but we just haven't found a script yet that was quality" So eventually they made It Runs In The Family. While Neither Ford, Spielberg or Lucas need the money on paper, it could be that they all have individual motives to co-align around this- Maybe Spielberg enjoys working with Ford and wants to do another 'light' quick and dirty film for a change- Maybe Ford feels he needs a career boost and sees this as a ticket to getting better projects later, and Lucas needs revenue (and a new game tie-in) for Q3/4 '08 to keep his new Presidio Empire functioning. I could be wrong though- maybe its a truly wonderful script. Then again, noted dramatist Lucas was the only one who didn't like the last script- wonder what the reason were- poor character motivation? contrived plotting? Maybe, just maybe, it was actually the opposite - and what he didn't like was the dearth of opportunities to merchandise tie-in? Cynical, I know...but with his track record- Y'know I just remembered one of the great things about the original Raiders- it was under-merchandised. Even at the time I realized how little 'stuff' there was to get- and that was probably what prompted me to start collecting movie memorabilia (one sheets/glossys/etc). I think the situation will probably be a bit different this time...just a hunch.