2007 at the Box Office (2 Viewers)

[Tarkin The Ewok]

I'm predicting that National Treasure: Book of Secrets will get $35 million this weekend, I am Legend will get slightly less, and Charlie Wilson's War and Sweeney Todd will battle it out for third place.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

I really enjoyed the first one. It reminded me of the children's movies of the 80s, like The Goonies and Explorers, in that it was earnest in tone but light-hearted as well.

 

[JediFonger]

i totally forgot about new releases =P.

it's kinda' all out there who knows what's going to happen, but tom hanks+julia roberts is huge. i think i'm legend+charlie will both duke it for #1. dunno how it'll work out in the end. is smith a bigger star than hanks AND roberts?

 

[Patrick Sun]

I'm predicting $50 million for National Treasure 2 this weekend.

 

[Malcolm R]

Cruise + Streep + Redford couldn't drag people into theaters. I'm not sure Hanks + Roberts is any more compelling, especially for yet another talky "war" film which people have avoided like the plague so far this fall.

 

[Pete-D]

Well the good thing for Charlie Wilson and Sweeny Todd is that they've both been very well reviewed and look to be good movies.

And both have A-list star power. Usually that's not a bad combo, but yeah both films are difficult to market too. Political dramedy and gothic musical aren't traditional blockbuster fare. The audience has to take a bit of a leap of faith.

 

[Shad R]

Sweeney Todd isn't wide release yet. It may do well per theater, but I don't think it will be anything above #4. Big movies! Don't forget the power of Judd Apatow-association either. Walk Hard touts that it's "the same guys" who brought us Knocked Up and Superbad. Just my guesses, though anything goes this weekend.

1. National Treasure - 40 mil
2. I Am Legend - 35
3. Walk Hard - 25
4. Charlie Wilson - 20
5. Sweeney Todd - 16

Maybe even a surprise showing by Juno?
It's going to be a HUGE weekend at the BO. This could possibly be the biggest weekend of the year. Maybe I'm wrong though.
Atonment , AVPR, Waterhorse...all open on Xmas day too!

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Just got back from the midnight show for National Treasure about an hour ago. The theatre was 90 percent empty. It was a pretty good time at the movies though. I would be surprised to see this have a similar run as the first one.

 

[Todd H]

I'm there for Walk Hard, which is at 80% on rottentomatoes.com at the moment. Looks hilarious.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

They had a midnight show for that last night too, and I'd say 80 percent of the people flowing in at midnight were for the Cox.

 

[JediFonger]

anyone see walk hard yet?

 

[TerryRL]

The early estimates are in and Oscar-winner Nicolas Cage looks to be on his way to posting the best opening weekend haul of his career. "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" posted in the neighborhood of $15-$18 million yesterday and looks headed for a debut tally of more than $50 million (the first of Cage's career).

"I Am Legend" took about a 55% Friday-to-Friday drop (a more moderate decline than many thought). "Alvin & the Chipmunks" was off by only about 32% in its Friday-to-Friday numbers. 'Sweeney Todd' pulled in close to $4 million. "Charlie Wilson's War" tallied a little over $3 million.

Both "P.S. I Love You" and 'Walk Hard' drew lukewarm receptions from moviegoers as they earned an estimated $2.25 million and $1.4 million respectively. Both were expected to perform to stronger numbers, especially 'Walk Hard'.

'Book of Secrets' will likely give Cage his second $100 million-plus domestic performer of the year (joining "Ghost Rider"). I wouldn't be at all surprised if a third 'National Treasure' is now in the cards for Cage, Disney, producer Jerry Bruckheimer, and director Jon Turteltaub.

"I Am Legend" looks headed for a second weekend fall in the neighborhood of 45-50% for the weekend, indicating that this one may be headed for a final domestic mark of more than $200 million (the third of Smith's career). The chipmunks could be in store for a final haul of more than $150 million.

Overall, this could end up being the biggest three-day weekend showing ever at the box office for the month of December. Ironically, the stars of the top two films (Cage and Smith) are slated to star opposite one another in the comedy "Time Share" currently slated for a 2009 release.

 

[Shawn.F]

We went to the 10:15 show of 'Walk Hard' last night and there couldn't have been no more than 15-20 people in the theater, tops.

The film itself was decent. The first half hour or so was a bit on the meh side, but once it got going, it was pretty damn funny.

 

[DavidPla]

WOW at I Am Legend. People were predicting that it was just an opening weekend picture but it's actually showing some legs for a big blockbuster.

Sweeney Todd was amazing! I hope it does well this holiday season. I know it'll be a tough sell over Christmas (the crowd I was with seemed so shocked when Johnny Depp started slashing). Terry, how well is the 4 milllion in regards to the amount of theatres it opened in?

 

[TerryRL]

Considering 'Sweeney Todd' opened in only 1,249 theaters a $4 million opening day tally is excellent. The movie should earn in the area of $10-$12 million for the weekend. Many are now predicting a very leggy run for this one as it goes wider in the coming weeks during the height of awards season.

 

[Chris]

I caught "I am Legend" far better then I expected. Not great, but I enjoyed it a good deal, and I thought Will Smith was very good in it.

"Walk Hard" has a very weak first act :frowning: It gets going, but it really takes it's own sweet time to get going.

 

[Todd H]

The wife and I saw Walk Hard today in an empty theater. We were literally the only two people in the place. And while we both thought it was pretty funny, it looks like this thing is going to "flop hard."

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" $17.1 million
#2 "I Am Legend" $11.0 million ($114.3 million) 63% Friday-to-Friday drop
#3 "Alvin & the Chipmunks" $8.5 million ($64.4 million) 36% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" $3.85 million
#5 "Charlie Wilson's War" $2.8 million
#6 "P.S. I Love You" $2.4 million
#7 "Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story" $1.5 million
#8 "Enchanted" $1.25 million ($95.4 million) 24% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "The Golden Compass" $1.20 million ($45.6 million) 54% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Juno" $970K ($4.0 million) 138% Friday-to-Friday increase

'National Treasure' should open with between $45-$50 million, "I Am Legend" will pull in a second weekend haul of about $30-$35 million, and look for the chipmunks to earn in the area of $25 million.

'Sweeney Todd' will open with more than $10 million, "Charlie Wilson's War" will debut with about $9 million, while both "P.S. I Love You" and 'Dewey Cox' brought in disappointing numbers.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" $45.5 million
#2 "I Am Legend" $34.2 million ($137.5 million) -56%
#3 "Alvin & the Chipmunks" $29.0 million ($84.9 million) -35%
#4 "Charlie Wilson's War" $9.6 million
#5 "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" $9.4 million
#6 "P.S. I Love You" $6.5 million
#7 "Enchanted" $4.2 million ($98.4 million) -25%
#8 "Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story" $4.1 million
#9 "The Golden Compass" $4.0 million ($48.4 million) -55%
#10 "Juno" $3.4 million ($6.4 million) +138%

Business was booming this weekend as the numbers for the top ten were up a spectacular 45% compared to this frame last year. Compared to '05, business was up a whopping 58%. Moviegoers spent $153.5 million on the top twelve movies, translating to about 22.4 million admission as well as the third best three-day haul ever for the month of December. The $153.5 million mark trails the holiday frames of 2002 ($155.9 million/26.8 million admissions) and 2003 ($165.8 million/27.5 million admissions).

2007's year-to-date domestic total now stands at an impressive $9.219 billion, which is up 5% compared to last year's totals ($8.807 billion), 9% stronger than '05 ($8.472 billion), a slight 2% bump over '04 ($9.027 billion), and a 4% improvement over '03 ($8.869 billion).

In terms of ticket sales, '07 has now sold about 1.346 billion theater admissions. At this point '06 was sitting on a total of 1.338 billion, '05 moved 1.324 billion, '04 sold a stellar 1.454 billion, while '03 had sold a whopping 1.471 billion tickets.

Disney's "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" topped the box office as it gave star Nicolas Cage the biggest opening weekend mark of his career (if the estimate holds), as well as the eighth best ever for the month of December. NT2 earned about $45.5 million, edging the $45.4 million start of "Ghost Rider" earlier this year. The opening also bettered the $35.1 million launch of the first 'National Treasure' flick. NT2 sold about 6.6 million admissions this weekend compared to the 5.3 million the first film moved during its opening weekend.

NT2's impressive per-theater average of $11,873 from its massive 3,832 locations was easily the best of the top ten. With such a potent start, NT2 looks headed for a final mark well beyond the century mark, giving Cage the seventh $100 million-plus performer of his career.

Don't be surprised if Disney and mega-producer Jerry Bruckheimer decide to bring everyone back for a third NT adventure within the next few years.

WB's "I Am Legend" fell to second place this weekend taking a more moderate 56% dip (some expected a fall of more than 60%). The film has so far tallied $137.5 million which is the eleventh $100 million earner of Smith's career. This one looks poised to top out north of the double-century mark, giving WB their third such hit of the year (behind Harry Potter 5 and "300"). This will be the third time star Will Smith has seen one of his films top the $200 million mark, joining ID4 and the first "Men in Black" adventure.

Fox's "Alvin & the Chipmunks" was off by only 35% this weekend as it pulled in $29 million. The family flick has so far netted nearly $85 million at the box office. This one should have little difficulty ending its run with more than $150 million in the bank. Looks like Fox is targeting a sequel for a holiday release in either 2009 or 2010.

Universal's Oscar-hopeful "Charlie Wilson's War" got off to a so-so start as it debuted more than $9.6 million. The film's softer-than-expected average of $3,735 from its 2,575 locations was only the sixth best of the top ten. 'Charlie' now ranks as star Tom Hanks' worst opening weekend (wide release) haul since 1996's "That Thing You Do!" ($6.2 million). Both films sold about 1.4 million theater admissions.

DreamWorks/Paramount's Oscar-hopeful "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" got off to a fantastic start as it pulled in nearly $9.4 million from its modest 1,249 theaters, representing a scorching $7,485 average (the fifth best of the top ten). The sixth collaboration between star Johnny Depp and director Tim Burton (third consecutive for Burton) looks poised to have a very leggy run in theaters during awards season. Both are expected to snag Oscar nods for their work here.

WB's "P.S. I Love You" drew lukewarm results from theater patrons as it pulled in $6.5 million. The film earned a disappointing average of $2,650 from its 2,454 theaters. Look for this one to fade fast. Disney's "Enchanted" is nearing the $100 million mark. Sony's "Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story" also drew disappointing results as it debuted with only $4.1 million. The film's meager average of $1,547 from its 2,650 locations indicates a very short run in theaters. New Line's "The Golden Compass" is sitting on a disappointing haul of $48.4 million.

Fox Searchlight's Oscar hopeful "Juno" entered 264 more theaters this weekend, translating to a massive 138% bump in business. The flick earned a stellar average of $11,184 from its 304 locations, which was the second best of the top ten. The movie has so far tallied $6.4 million.

Next weekend marks the final frame of 2007. Five films will hit theaters on Tuesday (Christmas Day), one opens on Wednesday in limited play, and two others open on Friday, also in limited play.

Tuesday will see the launches of Fox's "Alien vs. Predator: Requiem", Sony's "The Water Horse", MGM's "The Great Debaters", WB's "The Bucket List" (in about 16 theaters), and Sony Classics' animated "Persepolis" (also in very limited play). Wednesday will see the Oscar hopeful "There Will Be Blood" open in two locations, while Friday will see the releases of Picturehouse's "The Orphanage" and Emerging Pictures' "Honeydripper".

Of the wide releases, look for AVP2 to make the most noise. Regardless, this should be an extremely busy week in theaters nationwide as the year comes to a close.

Have a safe holiday everybody.

 

[Chris]

I'll say this.. for all the Kudos that are thrown at, I thought this was the weakest film I saw released this weekend. Putting politics aside, this film couldn't find it's own tone.. whether it be sarcastic, goofy, or straightforward, the film just seemed lost. I can't picture this being a film that generates any really positive or negative word of mouth, it just "is"