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2006 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

TerryRL

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Friday Estimates

#1 "Hostel" $7.5 million
#2 "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe" $3.9 million ($236.0 million) 59% Friday-to-Friday drop
#3 "Fun with Dick and Jane" $3.7 million ($72.9 million) 38% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "King Kong" $3.4 million ($183.4 million) 61% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "Cheaper by the Dozen 2" $2.3 million ($60.4 million) 58% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Munich" $2.2 million ($20.0 million) 50% Friday-to-Friday increase
#7 "Rumor Has It" $1.83 million ($31.3 million) 43% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Memoirs of a Geisha" $1.80 million ($35.5 million) 35% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Brokeback Mountain" $1.7 million ($18.4 million) 36% Friday-to-Friday increase
#10 "The Ringer" $1.4 million ($24.9 million) 40% Friday-to-Friday drop

As predicted, Lions Gate's "Hostel" will become the first 2006 release to capture the top spot at the box office. The film got off to a great start yesterday as it pulled in $7.5 million. An opening weekend tally in the area of $20 million is expected.

'Narnia' took a 59% hit off of its Friday-to-Friday numbers, but still captured the #2 slot. The film has so far snagged $236 million, passing the $234.2 million tally of "War of the Worlds" to become the third biggest domestic performer of 2005. This one should be in for a fifth weekend mark of $12-$15 million.

Sony's "Fun with Dick and Jane" took the third slot with a modest decline of 38%. After a so-so start, this one has found its legs and will become the tenth $100 million performer for star Jim Carrey. The film has currently earned about $73 million.

Taking a steep 61% slide off of its pace last weekend was Universal's "King Kong", while Fox's "Cheaper by the Dozen 2" was off by 58%. 'Kong' should have a fourth weekend mark of $10-$11 million, while Cheaper 2 should take in about $6-$8 million.
 

Patrick Sun

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Doesn't look like KK is going to have that Titanic-like run, does it? I doubt it's going to see over $10 million in a weekend ever again.

I would have thought Hostel would have easily been able to hit $25 million (people love their gore), we'll have to see if word of mouth sinks its chances to take in more than $20 million. Having now seen it, I think word of mouth will be average to above average for Hostel.

Munich opened wider in 1485 theaters, and averaged $1,535. The average is better than Narnia and KK, but not all that great for its opening wide(r) release. Can't see it being a big money earner.
 

mattCR

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While people sweat the performance of Kong relative to cost, the one that strikes me right now is Memoirs of a Geisha. Great, great book.. loved the book, had no interest in the movie. The same feeling seems to be going around. I was thinking it was a very expensive film (not Kong expensive, but fairly expensive) for what it's taking in.

While people worry about Kong, it seems to me that the financial "big busts" were "Rent" and "Memoirs" which just seemed to have tanked off the bat; "The Producers" not breaking the Top10.. ooch, also.
 

Jason Harbaugh

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And how can you skip Bloodrayne pulling in a whopping $400,000 on Friday with high hopes of breaking $1m! Will someone please take the camera out of Uwe Boll's hands, and any actor that gets a script from his office should immediately fire their agent.
 

David Wilkins

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Pardon if I sound piffy and mean...but, it's nice to see that there's room for "Big Momma's House 2", but no mention of Terrence Malick's "The New World", with Colin Farrell, Christian Bale, Christopher Plummer and Jonathan Pryce. Release date is 01/20/06.

But then...some consider me "uppity" and artsy-fartsy.
 

Chuck Mayer

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I agree with Patrick. Kong will be seen as a mild success or a mild disappointment. NO failure or blockbuster, but it'll make SOME money for Universal. Not as much as they were hoping.

I expected a $75M opening for Bloodrayne.

David, The New World is a 2005 film, not a 2006 film. That's why Terry didn't mention it. It goes WIDE on 1/20...but opened on Christmas Day for release purposes.

I am shocked at the lukewarm Bloodrayne reception,
Chuck
 

Colin Jacobson

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But did anyone EVER anticipate Munich would earn tons of money? It's not the kind of movie that screams "blockbuster"...
 

ChrisMatson

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htf_images_smilies_smiley_jawdrop.gif
 

Malcolm R

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Uwe Boll may be the only director's name known far and wide as box office poison. I'm sure most of the target audience for this film is fully aware of that, being familiar with his past "work."

It blows my mind that this man continues to be hired by anyone.
 

DavidPla

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Not only that, but each of his films get higher and higher budgets while they make less and less at the Box Office.
 

Tino

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That's a joke, right Chuck??

And if not....for God's sake..WHY?????;)

Btw, whats' the record for a January opening (not a December release going wide)?
 

Kevin Grey

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Boll really isn't hired. There was a loophole in German law that basically allowed people to write off money invested in the making of movies, or something to that effect. So basically Boll has this whole little enterprise where he buys the rights to videogames for cheap and uses this venture capital to fund his movies (and line his pockets a bit). Since the whole basis for investing in the films is tax shelter, the investors really aren't looking to make a profit.

Supposedly this "loophole" has since been closed but Boll has at least three future projects already funded before it expired.
 

Malcolm R

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I wonder what he expects to do after that? Anyone with any sense would stay far, far away from him.
 

TerryRL

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Weekend Estimates

#1 "Hostel" $20.1 million
#2 "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe" $15.4 million ($247.5 million) -40%
#3 "King Kong" $12.4 million ($192.5 million) -49%
#4 "Fun with Dick and Jane" $12.2 million ($81.3 million) -26%
#5 "Cheaper by the Dozen" $8.3 million ($66.4 million) -42%
#6 "Munich" $7.4 million ($25.2 million) +56%
#7 "Memoirs of a Geisha" $6.0 million ($39.7 million) -22%
#8 "Rumor Has It" $5.8 million ($35.3 million) -37%
#9 "Brokeback Mountain" $5.7 million ($22.4 million) +59%
#10 "The Family Stone" $4.6 million ($53.1 million) -43%

On the first weekend of the new year, a 2006 release claimed the top spot at the box office. I believe this marks the first time that a new year release won the first weekend of its respective year since the 1970s. In years past, the first weekend of January is usually dominated by holdovers from the previous year or late year releases going wide. The $20.1 million debut of "Hostel" also gives the film the eighth best opening mark ever for the month of January, earning a stellar $9,157 per-theater average from its 2,195 locations (the second best of the top ten).

Most box office watchers expected this one to open at #1 (with a few exceptions, most notably Brandon at Box Office Mojo), but didn't expect it to top the $20 million mark. Most thought it would earn in the area of $15-$17 million. Lions Gate did a great job marketing the movie and adding Quentin Tarantino's name to the ads also didn't hurt.

"Hostel" cost the studio a very modest $22.8 million (a meager $4.8 million to make and $18 million to promote), so expect the studio make serious plans for a sequel. Even if the movie has short legs, Lions Gate will see a nice return on their investment. This could also give the studio another horror franchise (joining the "Saw" series) to hang their hat on.

'The Chronicles of Narnia' took the second slot this weekend as it was off a moderate 40%. The movie has so far tallied $247.5 million and will pass the $250 million mark before next weekend. Right now, the movie is pacing toward a final mark in the neighborhood of $285-$295 million. If 'Narnia' shows stronger legs over the coming weeks, it has a good shot at hitting the triple-century mark.

'Narnia' also has put itself in position to challenge "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire" as the second biggest hit of 2005. Disney execs have to be ecstatic because the movie wasn't expected to do this sort of business. Expect the sequel to hit theaters within the next three years.

"King Kong" took third as it lost nearly half of its business from last weekend. The movie has so far tallied $192.5 million and will pass the double-century mark next weekend. Look for Universal's $200 million-plus opus to top out with $225-$230 million, making it fifth biggest domestic earner of 2005. Including marketing costs, Universal spent about $260 million to make 'Kong' and it is now expected to top out with a worldwide mark of about $600 million.

Though much more was expected from 'Kong', (many believed its worldwide cume would top the $1 billion mark) Peter Jackson will become only the second director to helm four consecutive films that earned more than $200 million, joining George Lucas on that short list. Lucas remains the only director to helm four consecutive $300 million-plus performers, as well as the only man to have helmed two films that took in more than $400 million (thank you Star Wars).

Sony's "Fun with Dick and Jane" had an excellent hold this weekend as it was off by only 26%. The comedy has so far earned more than $81 million and is headed for a final tally in the vicinity of $115-$125 million. As was stated yesterday, 'Dick and Jane' will become the tenth $100 million-plus earner for star Jim Carrey since 1994's "Ace Ventura: Pet Detective" made him a headlining star at the box office.

Fox's "Cheaper by the Dozen 2" came in fifth as it saw a moderate decline of 42%. With more than $66 million in the bank thus far, expect this one to end its run with between $80 and $90 million.

Universal's "Munich" saw a huge 56% jump in business this weekend as it went into wide release. The Oscar hopeful's per-theater average of $5,020 was the third best of the top ten. At this point, I'd say the $70 million film is on its way to about a $50 million haul at the box office. It could make more depending on how well it does when the Oscar nominations are announced at the end of the month.

Sony's "Memoirs of a Geisha" saw only a 22% slide in business this weekend as it neared the $40 million mark. The $85 million movie should end its run north of the $60 million mark. WB's "Rumor Has It" was off a modest 37% this weekend and is still on course for a final mark of $50-$55 million.

Focus Features' "Brokeback Mountain" saw a massive 59% increase in business this week. The film earned a whopping $11,904 per-theater average from its very modest 483 locations (the best of the top ten). With more than $22 million already in the bank from its limited play, the $14 million Oscar favorite is looking more and more like its going to be a major hit when it goes wide next week.

Fox's "The Family Stone" rounds out the top ten as it took a moderate 43% dip in business. The $18 million film has so far tallied a spectacular $53.1 million and still seems to be headed for a final mark of $65-$70 million.

In other box office news, both "BloodRayne" (Romar Entertainment) and "Grandma's Boy" (Fox) crashed and burned upon release, while "Walk the Line" (Fox) is now less than $5 million away from becoming the 18th release of 2005 to pass the century mark. The film will become the fifth $100 million-plus earner for star Joaquin Phoenix (the second for him as the headlining star) and the second for Best Actress favorite Reese Witherspoon.

Behind "Hostel" and 'Narnia', overall business was up 5% compared to this point last year (when "Meet the Fockers" finished at #1 for the third straight week), and up an even more impressive 18% compared to this same weekend in 2004 (when 'The Return of the King' also pulled a threepeat).

Next weekend will see the releases of Disney's "Glory Road", Paramount's "Last Holiday", and Fox's "Tristan and Isolde" all challenge "Hostel" for the top spot at the box office. "Glory Road" has emerged as the favorite to win next weekend (especially considering that next weekend is the Martin Luther King four-day holiday frame), but all three films are expected to do strong business.
 

DavidPla

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I'm pretty impressed with the numbers for "Fun with Dick and Jane". For a movie that was so critically panned and had such a soft opening, it's really shown some legs. Never underestimate the power of Jim Carrey, I guess.
 

TerryRL

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With 10 $100 million-plus earners out of his last 16 films, expect Jim Carrey to become the sixth A-Lister to command a $25 million salary with the next movie he negotiates a deal to headline in. He will be joining Tom Cruise, Tom Hanks, Mel Gibson, Arnold Schwartzenegger, and Will Smith on that short list.

Carrey was only the second actor in history to earn a $20 million salary (behind Sylvester Stallone) for his role in "The Cable Guy" back in 1996 (a year earlier, Stallone got $20 mil to do "Judge Dredd"). A year after that, The Arnold became the first actor to get a $25 million payday for his six weeks worth of work in "Batman & Robin".
 

Edwin Pereyra

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According to the Wall Street Journal, it appears that $500M is the threshold number in worldwide box office receipts that King Kong has to achieve before it starts making any money for the studio.


Currently, its worldwide gross stands at $465M.

~Edwin
 

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