2006 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "Casino Royale" $4.6 million ($105.3 million) 64% Friday-to-Friday drop
#2 "Happy Feet" $4.3 million ($108.3 million) 71% Friday-to-Friday drop
#3 "Deja Vu" $3.5 million ($36.5 million) 57% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "The Nativity Story" $2.4 million
#5 "Deck the Halls" $1.8 million ($20.1 million) 64% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Borat" $1.4 million ($112.9 million) 67% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Turistas" $1.2 million
#8 "The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause" $1.1 million ($69.3 million) 71% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Stranger Than Fiction" $950K ($34.5 million) 61% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "National Lampoon's Van Wilder: The Rise of Taj" $925K

"Casino Royale" led the field Friday as all the holdovers from last weekend saw the expected post-Thanksgiving Weekend steep percentage drop. While 'Casino' led Friday, "Happy Feet" is expected to win the weekend and become the first flick since Pirates 2 to hold the weekend crown for three consecutive weeks.

"The Nativity Story", "Turistas", and 'The Rise of Taj' didn't register much interest from moviegoers as all three are on course for disappointing box office returns.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Happy Feet" $17.0 million ($121.0 million) -54%
#2 "Casino Royale" $15.1 million ($115.9 million) -51%
#3 "Deja Vu" $11.0 million ($44.0 million) -46%
#4 "The Nativity Story" $8.0 million
#5 "Deck the Halls" $6.6 million ($25.0 million) -44%
#6 "The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause" $5.0 million ($73.1 million) -49%
#7 "Borat" $4.8 million ($116.3 million) -53%
#8 "Turistas" $3.5 million
#9 "Stranger Than Fiction" $3.4 million ($36.9 million) -40%
#10 "National Lampoon's Van Wilder: The Rise of Taj" $2.2 million

The industry endured the customary post-Thanksgiving drop (losing 45% of its business from last weekend), but studio execs still had something to crow about as this weekend saw improvement over both last year (to the tune of 4.5%) and 2004 (up nearly 2%). 2006 has now tallied $8.350 billion, which is up 4% from last year ($7.999 billion), and down nearly 3% to 2004's year-to-date haul of $8.587 billion. 2006 has so far sold an estimated 1.268 billion theater admissions compared to the 1.249 billion and 1.382 billion 2005 and 2004 sold respectively.

WB's "Happy Feet" made it three-in-a-row this weekend as it became the first film since "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" to reign as the top earning film in the land for three consecutive weeks, as well as only the second movie of 2006 to hold the top spot three times. The CG animated flick's per-theater average of $4,480 from its 3,804 locations was once again the best of the top ten. The film has so far tallied $121 million and WB execs are expecting it to top out with more than $185 million, easily clearing the studio's hoped for mark of $150 million. A Best Animated Feature Oscar could also be in store for WB this year, thanks to the film's massive success.

Sony's "Casino Royale" finished as the #2 earner in the land for the third consecutive week. The 21st 007 adventure has now tallied $115.8 million, which is down slightly to the $120.2 million that the previous Bond flick, "Die Another Day", had earned, though the $15.1 million weekend mark of 'Casino' did better the $12.8 million third weekend showing of 'Die'. A final tally north of the $150 million mark is still expected, making it second only to 'Die' as the biggest domestic hit of the Bond series. Worldwide, 'Casino' has already passed the $300 million plateau and looks to have little difficulty in eventually topping the $432 million tally of 'Die' to become the biggest global hit of the 007 franchise.

Disney's "Deja Vu" was off a moderate 46% this weekend and has so far pulled in $44 million. This one looks headed for a final tally of more than $70 million. New Line's "The Nativity Story" debuted with $8 million this weekend, earning a very soft per-theater average of $2,521 from its 3,183 locations. This one will probably have very short legs.

Fox's "Deck the Halls" has now earned just under $25 million and looks headed for a final mark in the neighborhood of $35-$40 million. Disney's 'The Santa Clause 3' is sitting on a domestic haul of $73.1 million. Fox's "Borat" has now pulled in a stellar $116.3 million.

Fox Atomic's "Turistas" crashed and burned upon release as it tallied only $3.5 million. The horror flick's per-theater average of $2,254 from its 1,570 locations indicates a very short run in theaters. This one will likely have much better luck on DVD.

Sony's "Stranger Than Fiction" has so far earned just under $37 million, MGM's "National Lampoon's Van Wilder: The Rise of Taj" rounds out the top ten. 'The Rise of Taj' really bit the dust upon release as pulled in only $2.2 million. The comedy had a disastrous per-theater average of $1,159 from its 1,979 locations. As with "Turistas", this one will probably fare much better on home video.

Next weekend will see four new releases challenge the dominance of "Happy Feet" and "Casino Royale". Disney's "Apocalypto", WB's "Blood Diamond", Sony's "The Holiday", and WB's "Unaccompanied Minors" all hit theaters. Will any of them have enough steam to topple those CG animated penguins and 007? We'll see what happens.

 

[JediFonger]

does box office track he # of tix sold vs. dollar amount? dollar amount is not always the best indication of movie economy because of price increases, inflation and so on.

the real question is the # of tix sold.

 

[Patrick Sun]

It's still more about total revenue a film makes, not how many butts are in the seats. If a movie is made for X million of dollars, you want to at least break even, regardless of attendance. If the ticket price goes up but enough people buy tickets to break even, all is good. Sure, ticket prices can have an effect on who will see a film, but in the end, people who want to see a film will see it (be it in a matinee or in the evening).

The number of tickets helps in figuring which films are more popular in terms of attendance, but not always the requirement if enough attend to make the film a lucrative venture.

 

[Malcolm R]

And once again, all those folks incessantly whining about the lack of wholesome, family films at the multiplex fail to show up to support yet another wholesome, family film.

 

[Patrick Sun]

Perhaps Keisha Castle-Hughes's own impending maculate conception at the age of 16 and unwed to the father has made "The Nativity Story" a tough sale to the christian/family crowd.

 

[Chris Atkins]

Maybe it just didn't look like a very good movie.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Bingo! I mean, just because someone bemoans the lack of family flicks doesn't mean they should automatically flock to something that isn't good. I love burritos, but if the only burrito place within 100 miles sucks, I'm not gonna eat there...

 

[Patrick Sun]

The snow in the midwest is being blamed for the poor showing by "The Nativity Story" by New Line's head of distribution.

 

[Adam_S]

and there definitely is a crapload of snow everywhere. And an inch of ice under the snow in a lot of places. On the other hand, maybe some people are waiting to see Nativity until Christmas is closer. It's kinda amazing they didn't release on the 25th, because with this opening, they'll be lucky to still be in more than 1000 theatres by the 25th.

that and the movie doesn't look that good, there's nothing unique about it (ie it's in English and the actors have teensy "accents", so it can't use the authenticity card like Passion did) to energize the target demographic and it just feels like a TV production every time you see it. the project had potential but they ran it through the studio 'make it safe' machine and got exactly the dull response a dull product generates.

And it doesn't help there wasn't 18 months of public carping about the 'folly' of making the movie followed by 3 months of extensive controversy generating massive buzz.

I don't think anyone cared that Hughes is pregnant though. that had much less of an impact than the snow, which probably had a pretty small impact, not enough to make it underperform half of what box office estimates were calling for on MCN.

Adam

 

[Larry Sutliff]

I agree. I love the Biblical film genre, but to me this one looks like it can wait for a Netflix rental.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "Apocalypto" $4.9 million
#2 "The Holiday" $4.4 million
#3 "Happy Feet" $3.0 million ($128.1 million) 28% Friday-to-Friday drop
#4 "Blood Diamond" $2.67 million
#5 "Casino Royale" $2.63 million ($122.7 million) 43% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Deja Vu" $1.8 million ($48.8 million) 47% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Unaccompanied Minors" $1.5 million
#8 "The Nativity Story" $1.4 million ($11.6 million) 41% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Deck the Halls" $1.0 million ($27.1 million) 43% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Borat" $790K ($118.4 million) 47% Friday-to-Friday drop

Mel Gibson's "Apocalypto" took the top spot at the box office yesterday as it got out of the gates with nearly $5 million. "The Holiday" was close behind so expect a tight race for #1 this weekend. Both films look headed for openings in the area of $15 million. "Blood Diamond" debuted in the fourth slot and should earn about $9-$11 million this weekend. "Unaccompanied Minors" opened in the seventh slot and looks headed for a debut mark of about $5 million.

 

[Pete-D]

Looks like we're heading into a brutal weekend.

 

[Kevin Grey]

Personally, I think that's a pretty strong opening for Apocalypto. I have no idea if it will end up being profitable or not but I'd be hard pressed to think of too many movies that were less marketable (cast of unknowns, foreign language, period of history many aren't very familiar with) even discounting Gibson's recent troubles.

 

[Tim Glover]

After just seeing Apocalypto, I can't imagine this being a big hit. Don't get me wrong, I thought it was great....just really different and kind of bizarre. Hope I'm wrong...

 

[Nathan V]

It's just a matter of getting people to see it. It's immensely entertaining. Anyone who likes dramas, or action, or both, will likely be blown away. I knew I would like it, but I frankly never thought it'd be this incredible. It manages to be entirely new and different, and yet completely comprehensible and hugely satisfying.

Regards,
Nathan

 

[Chris]

I greatly enjoyed Apocolypto. I thought it was original, involving.. and the storyline was fast paced.

 

[Chris]

Apocolypto wins the weekend at 14.2M, and exit tracking shows it got high marks amongst audience goers, which may help it get some word of mouth. Not bad for a foreign language film on a portion of history most people have no connection to.

Glad to see it perform so well. Putting all the contemporary stuff aside, it really is an incredibly well crafted film.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Apocalypto" $14.2 million
#2 "The Holiday" $13.5 million
#3 "Happy Feet" $12.7 million ($137.7 million) -27%
#4 "Casino Royale" $8.8 million ($128.9 million) -42%
#5 "Blood Diamond" $8.5 million
#6 "Unaccompanied Minors" $6.2 million
#7 "Deja Vu" $6.0 million ($53.0 million) -44%
#8 "The Nativity Story" $5.0 million ($15.5 million) -32%
#9 "Deck the Halls" $3.9 million ($30.0 million) -41%
#10 "The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause" $3.3 million ($77.2 million) -32%

While a pair of new releases topped the box office this weekend, the industry had to endure a significantly down period compared to both last year and 2004. Business was down nearly 28% compared to this period in 2005 when 'The Chronicles of Narnia' blew away industry expectations and debuted with more than $65 million. Compared to 2004, business was off by 16% when "Ocean's Twelve" got out of the gates with more than $39 million.

The year-to-date domestic tally of 2006 now stands at $8.380 billion, which is up 3% compared to 2005 ($8.135 billion), but down 4% to 2004 ($8.716 billion). 2006 has so far sold an estimated 1.273 billion theater admissions, compared to the 1.271 billion and the 1.403 billion that 2005 and 2004 had sold by this point respectively.

Disney snagged the top spot at the box office this weekend with director Mel Gibson's $40 million epic, "Apocalypto". The R-rated film pulled in more than $14 million and earned a per-theater average of $5,746 from its 2,465 locations, which was the best of the top ten. Bolstered by generally solid reviews, Disney is hoping for a very leggy run out of this one during the next several weeks.

Sony's "The Holiday" debuted in the second slot with a haul of $13.5 million. The $85 million romantic/comedy earned a per-theater average of $5,172 from its 2,610 locations. Sony execs are confident that "The Holiday" will have a very solid run in theaters thanks to great word-of-mouth, as well as the fact that there currently are no other films in the marketplace right now competing for the romantic/comedy crowd.

WB's "Happy Feet" continues to display solid legs as it lost only 27% of its audience this weekend. The film has so far tallied close to $138 million. Sony's "Casino Royale" is also displaying strong staying power as it was off a moderate 42% this weekend. The 21st entry of the now 43-year-old franchise has now pulled in just under $129 million, which now makes it the second-biggest domestic performer of the series.

WB's "Blood Diamond" disappointed many upon its debut this weekend as it pulled in $8.5 million, earning a so-so per-theater average of $4,458 from its 1,910 locations. Much more was expected from the latest flick starring megastar Leonardo DiCaprio, which also is said to carry a production budget north of the $90 million mark.

The news didn't get much better for WB as their family film, "Unaccompanied Minors", also had a pretty soft opening weekend. The movie brought in $6.2 million, pulling in a per-theater average of only $2,236 from its 2,775 locations. The film cost only $25 million to make, so the studio will very likely get their investment back thanks to home video.

Disney's "Deja Vu" has now tallied $53 million. New Line's "The Nativity Story" was off by only 32% and the $35 million budgeted film has now earned $15.5 million. Fox's "Deck the Halls" hit the $30 million plateau, and Disney's 'The Santa Clause 3' rounds out the top ten. While some have painted the third film of the 'Clause' series as a disappointment, the movie has so far tallied more than $77 million. The movie will end up with a final haul in the neighborhood of $85-$90 million.

Next weekend should be a busy one at theaters as Paramount's "Charlotte's Web", Fox's "Eragon", and Sony's "The Pursuit of Happyness" all hit theaters. "Dreamgirls" and "The Good German" both begin playing in L.A. and New York, while "We are Mashall" sneaks in about 1,000 locations.

Expect the battle for #1 to come down between "Charlotte's Web" and "Eragon". Both films are burdened with very high expectations so it'll be interesting to see what happens next week.

 

[JediFonger]

niiiice. i see you've included admissions, that's very interesting #'s. 2005 has star wars ep3, so it's a bit "inflated" so to speak.

i don't predict anymore smash hits from here til new years. in fact i think the next big hit would be 300 in march, i hope it is =). if it's a good movie, it deserves success.