2005 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Jason Harbaugh]

So just like last week with Transporter 2, the weekend numbers will double most predictions.

I am surprised though. Probably just because Emily wasn't a film I was interested in and so I haven't paid attention to the marketing campaign, other than making fun of the lame tv spots with the cheesy faces. But that's neither here, nor there. Kudos to Emily.

 

[ChrisBEA]

The marketing for Emily is awful, it doesn't represent the film well at all, and I see a sharp decline from week 1 to week 2 as more word of mouth filters out from those expecting a horror film.

That said, I enjoyed it a lot more than I thought I would and am glad to see it do well, for at least this weekend.

 

[Ray H]

Haven't seen the movie, but I'll agree that the ads don't seem to represent the film. I was reading Ebert's review yesterday and thinking it sounded nothing like the tv spots looked like.

 

[Pete-D]

The thing is "The Excorcist" has such an iconic status with teens/20 somethings and the whole "based on a true story" was a very smart marketing angle. So rather than it being a "make believe" horror movie ala "House of Wax", this one had decent word of mouth among its core audience because that audience loves to be scared.

I was chatting with a few of my cousins who are basically in the prime demographic for this film, and they brought it up as a movie they wanted to see about a week ago. Also with other friends I talked to, they knew about this film ... the topic kind of invites a word of mouth discussion ("are you going to see that excoricism movie about that girl? I heard it really happened" ... all the billboards and TV spots in the world can't buy you that kind of marketing).

The problem I see though is the movie isn't really as much of a straight out horror film as I think a lot of people are expecting so I think that will hurt its legs. But really the distributors have to be extremely happy even if the film suffers sharp declines from here on out.

 

[Sean Laughter]

I agree, there was a ton of people for showings of Emily at my local multiplex Friday night - but I think it presents a problem because a great many of those going to see it were teenagers whom, after having seen the film, I'm sure will have no interest in the film whatsoever. This is partly the fault of the marketing that really misrepresents the tone and structure of the film. However, there were at least six people I saw leave before the end of the film, mainly teenagers, and I certainly do see this having a steep decline next week.

I liked the film, I just think it was marketed the way it was to pull in a demographic on the opening weekendwho wouldn't otherwise have gone to see it and thus boost the box-office. It will give the impression it has horrible legs, but for the kind of film it is I think the audience and haul size for this weekend are abnormal.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "The Exorcism of Emily Rose" $30.2 million
#2 "The 40-Year-Old Virgin" $7.9 million ($82.3 million) -40%
#3 "Transporter 2" $7.2 million ($30.1 million) -56%
#4 "The Constant Gardener" $4.8 million ($19.1 million) -44%
#5 "Red Eye" $4.6 million ($51.3 million) -39%
#6 "The Man" $4.0 million
#7 "The Brothers Grimm" $3.3 million ($33.2 million) -54%
#8 "Wedding Crashers" $3.2 million ($200.0 million) -32%
#9 "Four Brothers" $2.9 million ($68.2 million) -41%
#10 "March of the Penguins" $2.5 million ($56.8 million) -37%

Sony's horror flick, "The Exorcism of Emily Rose", blew away expectations this weekend and earned the third best September debut in history, trailing 2002's "Sweet Home Alabama" ($35.6 million) and 1998's "Rush Hour" ($33.0 million). The film took in $30.2 million and more than doubled industry expectations.

'Emily Rose' is now only the third film ever to open to more than $30 million in the month of September. The film has received decent reviews and if it has sturdy legs in the coming weeks, it'll end up joining this year's $100 million club.

Universal's "The 40-Year-Old Virgin" repeats as the nation's #2 grosser as it took a moderate 40% dip this weekend. The $26 million film has so far tallied $82.3 million and is now a lock to end its run with more than $100 million in the bank.

Fox's "Transporter 2" took a 56% slide at the box office, but the sequel has already proved to be a bigger hit than its predecessor. In two weeks the film has earned $30.1 million, while the original grossed $25.2 million during its entire run. With a modest budget of $32 million (compared to the $21 million the original film cost), this one will end up being a profitable hit for Fox as its on course for a final mark in the area of $45-$50 million, more than doubling the haul of the original film.

Focus Features' Oscar hopeful, "The Constant Gardener", was off by 44% this weekend and has earned just over $19 million thus far. Right now the $25 million film is headed for about a $35 million finish, but if it does well come nomination time than expect the studio to re-launch it more theaters.

"Red Eye" continues to do strong business as it took a moderate 39% drop this weekend (the third best hold of the top ten). The $26 million film has so far taken in $51.3 million and should top out in the neighborhood of $65 million.

New Line's action/comedy "The Man" was D.O.A. this weekend as it debuted with a paltry sum of $4 million. This one will disappear pretty fast.

Miramax's "The Brothers Grimm" took another steep decline this weekend (to the tune of 54%). The $90 million film has so far earned only $33.2 million and should top out with a little over $40 million.

This weekend saw New Line's comedy smash, "Wedding Crashers", become only the second R rated comedy in history to pass the double-century mark. The film joins 1984's "Beverly Hills Cop" ($234.7 million) on that very short list. Overall, "Wedding Crashers" is now the seventh film with an R rating to pass the $200 million plateau. Here are the films on that exclusive list...

#1 "The Passion of the Christ" (NewMarket) $370.7 million
#2 "The Matrix Reloaded" (WB) $281.5 million
#3 "Beverly Hills Cop" (Paramount) $234.7 million
#4 "The Exorcist" (WB) $232.6 million
#5 "Saving Private Ryan" (DreamWorks/Paramount) $216.5 million
#6 "Terminator 2- Judgment Day" (Carolco/Tri-Star) $204.8 million
#7 "Wedding Crashers" (New Line) $200.0 million

Paramount's "Four Brothers" also continues to do strong business as it was off by 41% this weekend. The $45 million film has so far tallied $68.2 million.

Warner Independent's "March of the Penguins" rounds out the top ten. The documentary took a 37% slide in business (the second best hold of the top ten behind "Wedding Crashers") and has pulled in $56.8 million thus far.

This marks the second straight weekend that 2005's grosses were far and away better than the marks for this same point last year. This weekend was to the tune of 21%. September has a pretty strong lineup and should get the fall season off to a great start heading into the final few months of the year.

Next weekend will see the releases of "Cry Wolf" (Focus Features), "Just Like Heaven" (DreamWorks), "Proof" (Miramax), and "Kiss Kiss Bang Bang" (WB) in limited release. Expect "Just Like Heaven" to put up the strongest challenge to 'Emily Rose' for the top spot as 'Heaven' star Reese Witherspoon will try to repeat the success of her last September release, 2002's "Sweet Home Alabama".

 

[Joel C]

I wouldn't be surprised if Emily Rose tops out at around $65 million; WOM will be pretty bad, I judge, based on the misleading marketing. Most of the audience I saw it with was made up of group of teens with no parents in tow, and most left saying it sucked. Though I did hear one boy, maybe 12 or 13, say it was "like a documentary, except not boring."

 

[Alex Spindler]

I don't understand the negativity. My audience actually clapped afterwards. And the lines were (for a September) massive on Saturday.

What's really going to cripple it will be a feel good Witherspoon movie and another horror film, although Cry Wolf looks like a pretty tepid movie. But, like this one, it might just take off.

Also Terry,
Shouldn't Lord of War be on your list of possible contenders on Friday? I think it might just have a surprising showing.

 

[TerryRL]

My bad.

I forgot to add both "Lord of War" and "Venom". Nicolas Cage is a proven star and his name alone can easily "open" a movie in most cases and next week could end up being a tight race for the top spot between "Lord of War" and "Just Like Heaven". Still, the battle for #1 next weekend also depends on how big a percentage hit 'Emily Rose' takes.

The WOM I've heard thus far on 'Emily Rose' has been very mixed, but the movie is already a hit because it cost only $19 million to make. Sony can also expect strong DVD sales since they'll no doubt release an "unrated director's cut" of the PG-13 flick.

Speaking of Sony, all the execs are probably breathing a big sigh of relief because 'Emily Rose' ends a long streak of box office duds for the studio. The film represents the biggest opener Sony has had since the February release of "Hitch".

 

[Matt Stone]

Wow. I didn't realize that.

 

[TerryRL]

With "The Corpse Bride" going wide in a couple of weeks, it should be noted that star (voice) Johnny Depp has become the 26th performer to join the "20/20 club" ($20 million salary against 20% of the profits).

He earned a career high $18 million for "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory" (director Tim Burton pocketed $10 million) and will receive $35 million combined for the two 'Pirates of the Caribbean' sequels (he inked those deals prior to signing on for the Willy Wonka film). Depp earned $10 million for the first 'Pirates' flick and he also pocketed $5 million for his voice work on 'Corpse Bride'.

Depp's first $20 million paycheck will come from WB's action/drama "Shantaram", which is expected to hit theaters in 2007.

 

[Rakesh.S]

Lord of War looks like a pretty cool movie, although it's hard to see it passing $50-60 million.

The trailer sells the movie --

"1 out of every 12 people own a firearm. The question is....How do we arm the other 11?"

and

"I supply to guns to every army except the Salvation Army."

or something to that effect

 

[Chris_T]

After 119 days in release, ROTS has now grossed more than $380 million domestically. One of seven movies to do so. Congrats to GL.

Chris

 

[Adam_S]

Corpse Bride is only scheduled for TWO theatres in all of LA, at the Grove, which is the second best multiplex in LA (next to Arclight) imo on Two screens and in three screens in Santa Monica craptacular theatre on the promenade--still I shudder to think of what the per theater average will be. Forty thousand? fifty thousand? it'll be interesting. The Grove will easily sell out every showing but probably the 10:30 AM one.. too bad I'm too busy with classwork, photolab and opening game to get out to it this weekend.


I'm still reeling from the sense of dejavu I got when seeing 'opening at select cities... opening everywhere' on a TV spot for a major release. Haven't seen that sense the early nineties. In fact I can't think of many releases that did that after Jurassic Park's success.

I always remember how frustrated I'd be at the select cities/everywhere split. I never understood why my city wasn't selected for the honor of a movie early.



Adam

 

[Adam_S]

saw Corpse Bride, big big crowd pleaser it will make lots of money.

Lots.

damn damn damn good film.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Just Like Heaven" $16.5 million
#2 "The Exorcism of Emily Rose" $15.3 million ($52.0 million) -49%
#3 "Lord of War" $9.2 million
#4 "The 40-Year-Old Virgin" $5.8 million ($90.6 million) -24%
#5 "Cry Wolf" $4.5 million
#6 "Transporter 2" $4.0 million ($36.5 million) -45%
#7 "The Constant Gardener" $3.6 million ($24.3 million) -21%
#8 "Red Eye" $2.9 million ($55.2 million) -35%
#9 "March of the Penguins" $2.55 million ($70.4 million) -3%
#10 "Wedding Crashers" $2.52 million ($203.6 million) -22%

DreamWorks saw their romantic comedy, "Just Like Heaven", debut in the top spot this weekend with $16.5 million. A good, but not spectacular, opening especially considering that the studio was expecting the film to earn in the area of $20 million this weekend. The debut of 'Heaven' didn't come close to the $35.6 million opening of star Reese Witherspoon's last September opener, "Sweet Home Alabama".

Still, the $58 million film ($15 mil of which went to Witherspoon) got off to a good start and should have a leggy run in theaters. If Witherspoon scores an Oscar nod for her next flick, "Walk the Line" (which she is expected to), and that film also goes on to become a solid performer at the box office, than the actress could become only the third female performer to command a $20 million per-film salary, joining Cameron Diaz and Julia Roberts on that very short list.

Sony's thriller, "The Exorcism of Emily Rose", didn't see the bottom fall out of its numbers this weekend as many had predicted. The $19 million film took a moderate drop of 49% (a solid hold for a film of this genre) and has so far tallied an impressive $52 million since its release. This one is definitely going to flirt with having a final mark in the neighborhood of $100 million. If the film passes that mark, it will be only Sony's second $100 million performer of the year behind "Hitch" ($179.4 million).

Lions Gate's $42 million flick ($20 mil of which went to star Nicolas Cage), "Lord of War", got off to a so-so start this weekend as it pulled in a little over $9 million. The studio is hoping WOM will eventually propel this one to a solid final haul.

"The 40-Year-Old Virgin" continues to show strong legs as it saw only a 24% dip in business this weekend (the fourth best hold of the top ten). The $26 million comedy from Universal has so far snagged more than $90 million and will pass the century mark within the next couple of weeks.

Rogue Pictures' thriller, "Cry Wolf", earned only $4.5 million in its debut this weekend. This one isn't expected to have the strongest of legs during the coming weeks.

Fox's "Transporter 2" took a 45% hit in business and has so far earned $36.5 million. Focus Features' Oscar hopeful, "The Constant Gardener", was off by only 21% this weekend (the second best hold of the top ten) and has earned $24.3 million thus far.

DreamWorks' "Red Eye" was off by 35% and has taken in a solid haul of $55.2 million since its release. Warner Independent's "March of the Penguins" had the best hold of the top ten, off by only 3%. The film has earned a stellar $70.4 million so far. New Line's "Wedding Crashers" continues to show stellar legs as it was off by only 22$ this weekend (the third best hold of the top ten). The $40 million film has so far tallied a whopping $203.6 million.

WB released "Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride" in only five theaters this weekend and the film snagged $411K. The movie earned a whopping $82,200 per-theater average, indicating that it will have a very solid haul when it goes wide next weekend.

For the third consecutive week, 2005 had a significant increase in business compared to this point last year. Next weekend will not only see 'Corpse Bride' go wide, but will also see the releases of Disney's "Flightplan" and Fox Searchlight's "Roll Bounce". Warner Independent's "Everything is Illuminated" and Miramax's Oscar hopeful, "Proof", will both debut in limited release.

Look for 'Corpse Bride' and "Flightplan" to battle it out for the top spot next week.

 

[Malcolm R]

I don't see this coming close to $100M. Perhaps $80M...and I think that's generous.

 

[TerryRL]

Right now its on pace to top out in the area of $90 million. If it shows solid legs over the course of the next month or so than it has a shot at the century mark. Even if it doesn't make it, the film has already proven to be a big hit for Sony since it cost less than $20 million to make.

 

[Jesse Blough]

So I guess absolutely NOBODY saw Venom. Can't say I blame them, but I personally think it looks better than Cry_Wolf. Which, of course, isn't saying much.

 

[ChrisBEA]

It only opened on like 400 screens....

It is playing near me and I am thinking of checking it out sometime this week.