2003 Oscar Predictions (1 Viewer)

[Lou Sytsma]

OK - we're almost halfway through the year again.

Even worse than last year - there haven't been any films released yet that have been getting any Oscar buzz as far as I am aware of.

I'm sure the more devout movie goers will be glad to pipe in with their picks.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

I'll dance.

Nemo will walk with the animated Oscar feature.

Other than that, we haven't seen much that will play on Oscar night...maybe a few technical nods for X2 and Reloaded (though even Reloaded will be traded in for Revolutions in a few months). I assume Seabiscuit is the first (and only?) "contender" to be seen this summer. I also predict, based on previous experience, that The Last Samurai will be up for cinematography. Ed Zwick always does very well with that (Glory, Legends of the Fall).

More as we know more,
Chuck

 

[ThomasC]

Two posts and no mention of Return of the King?! It's a lock for the Best Picture and Best Director nominations, and probably everything else the other two films were nominated for.

A little bird told me that The Alamo is a lock to win best cinematography :wink:, so we can at least expect a nomination.

Possible Best Picture nominations: The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, Cold Mountain, The Company, Mona Lisa Smile, and The Statement.

 

[Craig S]

Chuck pretty much covered it. I'll add that the extremely well-reviewed City Of God could pull a screenplay or directing nod (see Y Tu Mama Tambien & Talk To Her last year).

Seabiscuit is looking to me to be this year's Road To Perdition - a high-pedigree drama that would normally be a fall or Christmas film released in the summer. I expect it will have about the same box office success (around $100 million), will garner good (but not ecstatic) reviews, and will be the de facto front-runner until the fall. Note that Randy Newman is writing the score. Unless he completely falls on his face (not likely) he WILL be nominated, and I'll even go out on a limb and predict (without hearing a note) that he'll win. I think the Academy will be ready to make up for not giving him the Oscar for The Natural.

Finding Nemo may be the earliest lock in history for Best Animated Feature. The only question is will there be enough animated releases (I believe 7 are required) for the Academy to even give the award?

 

[Lou Sytsma]

I've heard Gus Van Sants - Elephant is a powerful film.

 

[Lew Crippen]

Craig, I was pretty impressed with the cinematography in City of God. But I’ve read nothing that might indicate that it is a possibility.

 

[Christopher Bosley]

Seabiscuit if it's good enough to overcome being released in the summer.

Presumably Cold Mountain if it lives up to the source material.

Peter Jackson possibly for Best Director but I still think the Academy looks for reasons not to award big fx pix with non-technical awards.

Dunno what this year's arthouse "Pianist" type will be though.

 

[Nick Sievers]

I think chances are good for The Brown Bunny to at least get nominations in Best Director & Picture with a slight possibility of gaining a screenplay nod.

 

[John^Lal]

I remember Roger Ebert saying that half the people in the oscar screening of City of God got up and walked out before the movie was over. so i thought that City of God could only be up for nominations last year.
After i saw City of God i was surprised it got no nominations and was also wondering about whether it was an '02 film or an '03 film. but if oscar sceenings were done for it last year, i don't know how it could be an '03 film.

Finding Nemo is obviously one of the best animation nominations, but i found it rather disappointing.

Return of the King, is the movie i am praying to blow people away and win every oscar .

 

[John^Lal]

Dunno what this year's arthouse "Pianist" type will be though

i thought The Hours was the arthouse last year

 

[Brook K]

Would be great if Dogville garnered a director nom for Lars Von Trier but he's a favorite whipping boy of critics for supposed "anti-Americanism". I'm sure it will be bashed resoundingly and people will be falling all over themselves to call it pretentious and arty as if creating art on film is somehow a bad thing.

How about George Clooney or Catherine Zeta-Jones for Intolerable Cruelty? The Coen's have been good for a nom or two lately. I'm trying to stay as virginal as possible on the movie so I have no clue if it has any buzz or not.

Would like to see The Shape of Things get screenplay recognition, but it's come and gone with no critical or commercial impact.

 

[Craig S]

so i thought that City of God could only be up for nominations last year.

CoG was up for Best Foreign Language Film last year (those were the screenings Ebert reported walkouts on). They way I understand it, if CoG had snagged a BFLF nod for 2002, it would NOT have been eligible for awards this year. Because it was passed over for BFLF last year, it is now eligible for all other awards this year.

 

[Craig S]

Would be great if Dogville garnered a director nom for Lars Von Trier but he's a favorite whipping boy of critics for supposed "anti-Americanism".

Dogville was an early Oscar possibility but in my view its shutout at Cannes has taken it out of the running.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

I'll have to disagree with Craig. I was looking at a 2001 article on Cannes, and I didn't even RECOGNIZE the names of the films that won. I think Cannes is a non-factor for the Oscars. Nicole is still the dujour girl, and the country will be far more tolerant of less-than-positive views on the USA by the time the Oscars roll around. I expect Dogville to be OK, if the film holds up.

Take care,
Chuck

 

[Jason Seaver]

Dunno what this year's arthouse "Pianist" type will be though

Well, Fox Searchlight has already bumped In America from April/May to October/November, presumably because they smell awards on it. It's a great, great movie.

 

[Arman]

"2003 Oscar Predictions"

- at least a Best Cinematography nominations for City of God
(if COG will not be nominated for Best Picture, no great & deserving foreign language film will be nominated again for 2003 . If COG will get the Best Picture nominations, I predict that another foreign language film will be nominated and for the first in the Oscar's history, one of them will win)
- I have'nt seen either of them but once again, Sundance biggest winner (American Splendor ... even if it is really that good) will not be nominated for Best Picture but Cannes biggest winner (Elephant) possibly (if it is really that good) will be
- Best Animation winner : Finding Nemo
- shutout :frowning: for one my top favorite 2003 films so far, Raising Victor Vargas (I'm hoping/pushing for a Best Picture/Director/Screenplay nominations)
- none of the leading performances (including Kidman's performance in Dogville ... even if it is that good ) so far will be nominated for Best Actor or Best Actress
- Best Foreign Film nomination for Italy's Angela (once again, I have'nt seen it but I'm hoping that my top favorite so far, At First Breath of The Wind will get the recognitions that it deserves. Am I the only who likes At First Breath of The Wind? I'm not sure if Angela is 2003 eligible though or if it was already bypassed last year )
- no musical three-peat (after Moulin Rouge and Chicago)

 

[Christopher Bosley]

Brown Bunny may sweep the Razzies but Vincent Gallo couldn't get into the Oscars even as an usher

 

[Mikel_Cooperman]

Ebert and Roepper last night said that Charlize Theron deserves best Actress for Monster. They say if she doesnt get it they should retire the award.