Senior HTF Member
- Nov 5, 1998
you still predicted a Laker winYeah, its sports. Stats show you the GENERAL IDEA, not the whole story. Otherwise they wouldn't bother playing. I also predicted that Prince and Rip would score more, LA would score less, that DET would at the very least be extremely competitive, and I even suggested that DET might win.
All of those things were correct. IMO I was far less "shocked" than many posters here who couldn't fathom how an East team could compete. I'd been saying for months that the STATS and performance indicated that the top East teams were in no way 2nd rate to the West, and I was most certainly justified in that respect.
It's true that the stats did not suggest that DET would thump LA, but they did suggest that DET could beat LA or at least come close (like losing due to home court).
My problem is that you and others did, and even still are, denying those indicators even if now they have proven to be less in magnitude than they should have been. Casinos do not lose their shirt at the sports book, and you or I can't make a living there either.
Why? Because of STATS. The casino would never make LA 8-1 underdogs, even though in reality that would have been more accurate. If the casino was always way off on odds then smart betters like you and I would take advantage of them.
A casino would NEVER set the Expos as the favorite to win the World Series, despite the fact that the oddsmaker most certainly HAS NOT SEEN all their games, maybe any of their games. They are looking at the STATS and they recognize that they are more accurate than not. Cripes, you know they utilize stats because how else could they set bets like the over/under or points per quarter, etc.
Of course casinos also get their odds adjusted by people betting their heart which is where a level-headed gambler can take advantage. Sentimental favs or over-hyped favs can throw the odds out of whack...see the LA odds or the Funny Cide odds last year.
But would you ever bet on a #8 seed to win the Finals? Why not, because of their W/L STAT, their OFF STATS, their DEF STATS? How does someone like Jan know that Indy or DET are better than BOS when he admits to not watching the East? Perhaps the W/L STAT again?
So let's not act like I was pulling up the FG% of the road team on Thursdays following a home and home series during March or something. I was running out W/L records and OFF/DEF allowed numbers, not exactly twisting stats. After all, W/L is how the NBA seeds teams so it seems as though people think they mean something, and so do I.
I'd say the most convoluted stat might have been which seed wins, and that only tied to the idea that the teams with the best records usually really are the best teams, or at least good enough to win with home court for most of the post-season. This year was different, though not nearly as much as the Knicks strike season or HOU in 95.
I'll still stick to betting on the top 2-3 records every season and you can have all the rest. In fact if you really do want to bet and really do think my stats are all twisted then why don't we make just that bet.
For the next 5 years we'll put down $20 per year. I get any team with a top 2 record (including ties for top 2) and you get all the rest. I feel very good that I will at least make $60 without even knowing the circumstances of those 5 years.
I can't possibly know the teams with the best records yet, I have not seen them play, nothing, so this is purely a statistical bet.