2003-2004 NBA Season

Seth Paxton

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you still predicted a Laker win
Yeah, its sports. Stats show you the GENERAL IDEA, not the whole story. Otherwise they wouldn't bother playing. I also predicted that Prince and Rip would score more, LA would score less, that DET would at the very least be extremely competitive, and I even suggested that DET might win.

All of those things were correct. IMO I was far less "shocked" than many posters here who couldn't fathom how an East team could compete. I'd been saying for months that the STATS and performance indicated that the top East teams were in no way 2nd rate to the West, and I was most certainly justified in that respect.

It's true that the stats did not suggest that DET would thump LA, but they did suggest that DET could beat LA or at least come close (like losing due to home court).

My problem is that you and others did, and even still are, denying those indicators even if now they have proven to be less in magnitude than they should have been. Casinos do not lose their shirt at the sports book, and you or I can't make a living there either.

Why? Because of STATS. The casino would never make LA 8-1 underdogs, even though in reality that would have been more accurate. If the casino was always way off on odds then smart betters like you and I would take advantage of them.

A casino would NEVER set the Expos as the favorite to win the World Series, despite the fact that the oddsmaker most certainly HAS NOT SEEN all their games, maybe any of their games. They are looking at the STATS and they recognize that they are more accurate than not. Cripes, you know they utilize stats because how else could they set bets like the over/under or points per quarter, etc.

Of course casinos also get their odds adjusted by people betting their heart which is where a level-headed gambler can take advantage. Sentimental favs or over-hyped favs can throw the odds out of whack...see the LA odds or the Funny Cide odds last year.


But would you ever bet on a #8 seed to win the Finals? Why not, because of their W/L STAT, their OFF STATS, their DEF STATS? How does someone like Jan know that Indy or DET are better than BOS when he admits to not watching the East? Perhaps the W/L STAT again?


So let's not act like I was pulling up the FG% of the road team on Thursdays following a home and home series during March or something. I was running out W/L records and OFF/DEF allowed numbers, not exactly twisting stats. After all, W/L is how the NBA seeds teams so it seems as though people think they mean something, and so do I.



I'd say the most convoluted stat might have been which seed wins, and that only tied to the idea that the teams with the best records usually really are the best teams, or at least good enough to win with home court for most of the post-season. This year was different, though not nearly as much as the Knicks strike season or HOU in 95.

I'll still stick to betting on the top 2-3 records every season and you can have all the rest. In fact if you really do want to bet and really do think my stats are all twisted then why don't we make just that bet.

For the next 5 years we'll put down $20 per year. I get any team with a top 2 record (including ties for top 2) and you get all the rest. I feel very good that I will at least make $60 without even knowing the circumstances of those 5 years.

I can't possibly know the teams with the best records yet, I have not seen them play, nothing, so this is purely a statistical bet.
 

Seth Paxton

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The T-Mac to Indy rumors have hit the airwaves here, too. Supposedly the Pacers have told Orlando that the only untouchable player on their roster is O'Neal.
Yes, this has been said by Donnie Walsh in the local media I believe.

Hearing that is what made the T-Mac thing start to sound possible. I mean an All-Star and a top 6th man is a pretty damn good offer and the salaries work, although I have heard some say that Bender would also go and that would still work apparently.

Of course Orlando forced the issue with T-Mac tonight/yesterday by now, and his response was to verify that he would leave after his final year. That's certain to be the starter's pistol on any trade activity for him. I'm not sure what the rules are regarding trades or trading periods surrounding the expansion draft and the rookie draft, but it could be crazy.



Phil quitting. I was a little surprised that he gave his statement so quickly, though it seems tied to Kobe I think. It's like the minute Kup said "Kobe stays" everything else went to shit. Jax mad and leaving so Payton decides to stay, Shaq mad and wants out. I think that's affecting Fisher's take on the situation as well.

Shaq wants out, but as it's been said, who can take him? The biggest laugher I've heard in recent days was that there was talk in LA of a Shaq for Jermaine trade. Man, that is so not going to happen.

I wonder if Rudy T would really take the job. If it's Bibby is he really ready to tackle an NBA situation that involves Shaq forced to deal with Kobe with Payton thrown into the mix?

I don't quite think it is the "dark days" just yet, but it does look to be kinda messy.


Personally I think Kobe is the better bet in terms of health and age obviously. Of course Shaq creates a lot of problems for teams and makes basically all his NBA teams winning ones, if not championship teams.



BTW, I finally got the stomach to watch the end of game 6 IND/DET...yes, Rip flopped and it wasn't a flagrant foul. Rip does slam his butt hard back into Ron who immediately goes down, he appears to have taken a real groin shot. So as Rip tries to run through him for his screen Ron puts his forearm up at his head, but he does NOT extend it more than maybe an inch. He basically creates a body contact point up at head level so when he and Rip collide Rip will get some of it in the head too, which he does.

It's nothing like Karl's shoulder or the arm punch by Peeler. Worse yet is you can see the contact reaction by Rip (minimal) and then the delayed "oh I got hit, suddenly I'm reeling" reaction to exaggerate it for the refs, he even has turned and seen the ref before going into the fall in the wrong direction. Definitely a bad call, but one that Ron could have avoided by not trying to retaliate at all.

It's just funny to me that anyone seeing the replay doesn't see how much Rip is clearly flopping. I mean the game is long since over and I wasn't watching it with the emotion of hoping my team would win. I even like Rip as I've said. But this was vintage NBA flop and had it been Reggie Miller doing it to Sheed Piston fans would have rioted (no Kimmel pun intended). And Reggie has done more than his share of these so I know what they look like.


Anyway, the blocks by Prince are what really won the game. He blocked Artest at the rim, he totally shut down Harrington on a dunk attempt...amazing effort in both cases and what to me won the game for DET.
 

Seth Paxton

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The T-Mac to Indy rumors have hit the airwaves here, too. Supposedly the Pacers have told Orlando that the only untouchable player on their roster is O'Neal.
Yes, this has been said by Donnie Walsh in the local media I believe.

Hearing that is what made the T-Mac thing start to sound possible. I mean an All-Star and a top 6th man is a pretty damn good offer and the salaries work, although I have heard some say that Bender would also go and that would still work apparently.

Of course Orlando forced the issue with T-Mac tonight/yesterday by now, and his response was to verify that he would leave after his final year. That's certain to be the starter's pistol on any trade activity for him. I'm not sure what the rules are regarding trades or trading periods surrounding the expansion draft and the rookie draft, but it could be crazy.



Phil quitting. I was a little surprised that he gave his statement so quickly, though it seems tied to Kobe I think. It's like the minute Kup said "Kobe stays" everything else went to shit. Jax mad and leaving so Payton decides to stay, Shaq mad and wants out. I think that's affecting Fisher's take on the situation as well.

Shaq wants out, but as it's been said, who can take him? The biggest laugher I've heard in recent days was that there was talk in LA of a Shaq for Jermaine trade. Man, that is so not going to happen.

I wonder if Rudy T would really take the job. If it's Bibby is he really ready to tackle an NBA situation that involves Shaq forced to deal with Kobe with Payton thrown into the mix?

I don't quite think it is the "dark days" just yet, but it does look to be kinda messy.


Personally I think Kobe is the better bet in terms of health and age obviously. Of course Shaq creates a lot of problems for teams and makes basically all his NBA teams winning ones, if not championship teams.



BTW, I finally got the stomach to watch the end of game 6 IND/DET...yes, Rip flopped and it wasn't a flagrant foul. Rip does slam his butt hard back into Ron who immediately goes down, he appears to have taken a real groin shot. So as Rip tries to run through him for his screen Ron puts his forearm up at his head, but he does NOT extend it more than maybe an inch. He basically creates a body contact point up at head level so when he and Rip collide Rip will get some of it in the head too, which he does.

It's nothing like Karl's shoulder or the arm punch by Peeler. Worse yet is you can see the contact reaction by Rip (minimal) and then the delayed "oh I got hit, suddenly I'm reeling" reaction to exaggerate it for the refs, he even has turned and seen the ref before going into the fall in the wrong direction. Definitely a bad call, but one that Ron could have avoided by not trying to retaliate at all.

It's just funny to me that anyone seeing the replay doesn't see how much Rip is clearly flopping. I mean the game is long since over and I wasn't watching it with the emotion of hoping my team would win. I even like Rip as I've said. But this was vintage NBA flop and had it been Reggie Miller doing it to Sheed Piston fans would have rioted (no Kimmel pun intended). And Reggie has done more than his share of these so I know what they look like.


Anyway, the blocks by Prince are what really won the game. He blocked Artest at the rim, he totally shut down Harrington on a dunk attempt...amazing effort in both cases and what to me won the game for DET.
 

Scott Merryfield

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So as Rip tries to run through him for his screen Ron puts his forearm up at his head, but he does NOT extend it more than maybe an inch.
Sorry, Seth, but any player who extends his forearm in that situation is more likely than not to get that flagrant foul call. It was a poor decision by Artest.

As for a possible Shaq trade, I cannot imagine another team being able to fit his salary for the next two years into their cap space without completely dismantling their team. ESPN stated this morning that he has $58 million due in the final two years of his contract. What team could possibly absorb that and have enough talent to offer the Lakers in return?
 

Scott Merryfield

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So as Rip tries to run through him for his screen Ron puts his forearm up at his head, but he does NOT extend it more than maybe an inch.
Sorry, Seth, but any player who extends his forearm in that situation is more likely than not to get that flagrant foul call. It was a poor decision by Artest.

As for a possible Shaq trade, I cannot imagine another team being able to fit his salary for the next two years into their cap space without completely dismantling their team. ESPN stated this morning that he has $58 million due in the final two years of his contract. What team could possibly absorb that and have enough talent to offer the Lakers in return?
 

Shane Martin

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As for a possible Shaq trade, I cannot imagine another team being able to fit his salary for the next two years into their cap space without completely dismantling their team. ESPN stated this morning that he has $58 million due in the final two years of his contract. What team could possibly absorb that and have enough talent to offer the Lakers in return?
Maybe he is forcing their hand a bit to get what he wants. This is just a guess though. Perhaps he wants Kobe gone? Perhaps he wants Phil back? Apparantly from what I can read, the whole deal with Phil not coming back is money.
 

Shane Martin

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As for a possible Shaq trade, I cannot imagine another team being able to fit his salary for the next two years into their cap space without completely dismantling their team. ESPN stated this morning that he has $58 million due in the final two years of his contract. What team could possibly absorb that and have enough talent to offer the Lakers in return?
Maybe he is forcing their hand a bit to get what he wants. This is just a guess though. Perhaps he wants Kobe gone? Perhaps he wants Phil back? Apparantly from what I can read, the whole deal with Phil not coming back is money.
 

Scott Merryfield

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Apparantly from what I can read, the whole deal with Phil not coming back is money.
I think money is only part of the reason that Jackson will not be back. He and Kobe did not get along, and the Lakers are trying to set things up to convince Kobe to return next season. That includes not paying Jackson what he wants so that he will leave.
 

Scott Merryfield

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Apparantly from what I can read, the whole deal with Phil not coming back is money.
I think money is only part of the reason that Jackson will not be back. He and Kobe did not get along, and the Lakers are trying to set things up to convince Kobe to return next season. That includes not paying Jackson what he wants so that he will leave.
 

Brandon_T

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I know that when I flop on the court, I often bleed from the face...


Anyways, I am pretty much done with this season, am happy the Pistons won, and am now focusing on the off season. I think that trade for Indy with Orlando would be giving up to much. I have heard, Artest, Bender, Harington and Tinsley, wow, way to much. As a Detroit fan though, I say please pull the trigger on that.

Brandon
 

Brandon_T

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I know that when I flop on the court, I often bleed from the face...


Anyways, I am pretty much done with this season, am happy the Pistons won, and am now focusing on the off season. I think that trade for Indy with Orlando would be giving up to much. I have heard, Artest, Bender, Harington and Tinsley, wow, way to much. As a Detroit fan though, I say please pull the trigger on that.

Brandon
 

Sebastian

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I think the Lakers will remain intact for the most part. The funny thing is, we all know now who teams it really is, Kobes. That fact alone will be hard for Shaq to swallow considering all his remarks that it is his team. LOL.
Anyway what is the deal with Hamiltons mask?
 

Sebastian

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I think the Lakers will remain intact for the most part. The funny thing is, we all know now who teams it really is, Kobes. That fact alone will be hard for Shaq to swallow considering all his remarks that it is his team. LOL.
Anyway what is the deal with Hamiltons mask?
 

Michael D. Bunting

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I don't recall RIP bleeding from the devastating arm raise by Artest? Any bleeding was probably caused by the bad flop.

I'm 50/50 on giving up Artest in any deal to get T-Mac. But I think getting T-Mac would be a good move for the Pacers either way.

I would rather the trade be: Harrington and Bender for T-Mac, but that might not be enough....I think adding Artest in that and making it a 3 for 1 deal is giving up too much though honestly...

No matter what they do, I still think the Pacers should add Brent Barry, too
 

Michael D. Bunting

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I don't recall RIP bleeding from the devastating arm raise by Artest? Any bleeding was probably caused by the bad flop.

I'm 50/50 on giving up Artest in any deal to get T-Mac. But I think getting T-Mac would be a good move for the Pacers either way.

I would rather the trade be: Harrington and Bender for T-Mac, but that might not be enough....I think adding Artest in that and making it a 3 for 1 deal is giving up too much though honestly...

No matter what they do, I still think the Pacers should add Brent Barry, too
 

Robert Anthony

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In the interview where Shaq revealed he wants a trade, the writer put forth the possibility that he's going to Orlando. They'll send draft picks (including the number 1) a starter and a bench player for O'Neal.

Apparently this is an actual possibility. He wants to go back to Orlando as well, it was said.

O'Neal/McGrady. Interesting.
 

Robert Anthony

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In the interview where Shaq revealed he wants a trade, the writer put forth the possibility that he's going to Orlando. They'll send draft picks (including the number 1) a starter and a bench player for O'Neal.

Apparently this is an actual possibility. He wants to go back to Orlando as well, it was said.

O'Neal/McGrady. Interesting.
 

Scott Merryfield

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Anyway what is the deal with Hamiltons mask?
Rip broke his nose twice during the season. He wore the mask after the second break to avoid further injury, since doctors told him a third blow could put him out for the remainder of the season.

There is an artice on ESPN.com regarding the Shaq to Orlando rumors. The speculation is that the Magic have a couple of huge contracts that they could send to the Lakers to make things work under the cap -- Juwan Howard and Grant Hill. I can't see LA taking Hill and his three-year old injury, though.
 

Scott Merryfield

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Anyway what is the deal with Hamiltons mask?
Rip broke his nose twice during the season. He wore the mask after the second break to avoid further injury, since doctors told him a third blow could put him out for the remainder of the season.

There is an artice on ESPN.com regarding the Shaq to Orlando rumors. The speculation is that the Magic have a couple of huge contracts that they could send to the Lakers to make things work under the cap -- Juwan Howard and Grant Hill. I can't see LA taking Hill and his three-year old injury, though.
 

Chris

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O'Neal desperately wants to play with O'Grady, as they have become very good friends. Both have put themselves on the block, in hopes that either one will go the other direction.. ie,

Kobe Goes, Grady comes in to LA
Shaq Goes, Grady stays in Orlando

It would be good, in some ways, for Shaq to go back to Orlando.. where he started... back in the day, when he and Anfernee Hardaway were a team.. anyway. We'll see. Realistically, that would make more sense "on the books".. especially if Orlando can as some believe, get out from under the Grant deal this year..
 

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