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OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT...


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#1 of 2232 OFFLINE   Dana Fillhart

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Posted April 09 2002 - 03:01 AM

Well, I figured that before any of these films comes out, I should start this thread and try my hand once again at guesstimating the domestic grosses for the upcoming blockbusters. So without further ado, here we go:

1. Attack of the Clones - $380 million. Despite the certainty of being far superior to its predecessor, I don't think this one will do as well this time around -- partly because of Joe Q's jaded expectations caused by TPM, and partly because DVD has become the prime home video format of choice and a LOT of those who don't want a second letdown will take this route.

2. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - $300 million. Okay, Tino, is this prediction more in line? Posted Image Seriously, I think that this go-round will equal the previous film: Those who won't see this one because they were not impressed with the first one will be a minority, although there will be new folk who might not want to see it because they hadn't seen the first one. The movie promises to be more dramatic and more epic (if that's possible) than the first, so this should bring even more repeat business from fans than the previous.

3. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets - $275 million. This is the one sequel that will probably suffer the most from the Jaded-Joe Q factor. Combined with a weaker (but still enjoyable) plot, I believe this one won't make the $300 million mark.

4. Spiderman - $200 million. So many factors are affecting my predictions on this one, but I think that, if it passes the fan muster, or if it has a Mummy-like feel for Joe Q to "appreciate", it could break $200 million. I don't see it doing anything close to $300 million, though.

--

There are a couple other movies coming out this year that may affect the list: The Sum of All Fears (May 31st), Minority Report (June 21st), Scooby Doo (June 14th)...just kidding on that last one Posted Image

It looks like this year promises to be another recordbreaker for Hollywood. Regardless of box office revenues, though, the movie fan sure has a lot to be happy for this year!

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#2 of 2232 OFFLINE   Don

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Posted April 09 2002 - 03:17 AM

yes i agree there will be a lot of good movies coming out country bears for family type movie changing lanes, frailty, and triple x might do good have only seen trailers of these so far i'm not going to guesstimate on the price of the movie but how good they will be there is a lot of good ones coming out this year Don,

#3 of 2232 OFFLINE   Quint van der Vaart

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Posted April 09 2002 - 04:18 AM

Ok let's do my predictions for the movies of 2002.

1. Star Wars Episode 2 : Attack Of The Clones (350.00)

I think this one will most curtainly do very good in the beginning but will fade away quite soon because most fans
of Star Wars will want to see this as soon as they can.
After that it's finished.
It will not do so great in the numbers like Phantom Menace did because the hype behind AOTC is not as big as that of
Phantom Menace was.
Still it will be a beter movie (I hope) Posted Image

2. Lord Of The Rings : The Two Towers (325.00)

The Two Towers will overcome Fellowship because many people
now know what these series stand for.
Also there will be greater things to be seen in this movie.
The path is prepaird for this one to be huge !!

3. Harry Potter And The Chamber Of Secrets (300.00)

The second installment of Harry Potter is a better story than the first one is, it has more suspence in it.
All the fans will show up again to join Harry in his next
adventure and will do big business at the boxoffice both domestic and internationally.
I am thinking it will do a little bit more or less.

4. Spiderman (225.00)

The first weeks before Attack Of The Clones opens will be great and it will prove to have legs untill the summer is at its peaking point (with Minority Report and MIB2).
It will fade away in the weeks when Star Wars is released.
Many fans of the comics will go and have a peak and will
bring in the most of the business.

5. Minority Report (around 200.00)

Steven Spielberg and Tom Cruise are names that draws money like a magnet.
The trailers look great (we are treated to a 3rd trailer when Star Wars is released) and many people will want to
see this movie.
This will bring massive boxoffice numbers on release but with the summer being crowed as it is Minority Report will have trouble staying on the highest regions of the boxoffice.

Other movies that will do great business with at least $ 100 Million + gross are :

Spirit : Stallion Of The Cimarron (DreamWorks)
The Sum Of All Fears (Paramount)
XXX (Revolution/Columbia Tristar)
007 : Die Another Day (MGM/UA)
Austin Powers 3 (New Line Cinema)
Lilo & Stitch (Disney)
Men In Black 2 (Columbia Tristar)
Signs (Buena Vista)
Scooby Doo (Warner Bros)

It does not matter which way it goes this year at the boxoffice , 2002 will be a GREAT movieyear Posted Image
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#4 of 2232 OFFLINE   William Ward

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Posted April 09 2002 - 04:57 AM

AOTC: 400M
TTT: 310M
HP2: 295M
Spiderman: 190M(but may be claimed at 200M by studios a la Pearl Harbor)
William

#5 of 2232 OFFLINE   Craig S

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Posted April 09 2002 - 05:08 AM

The number one movie of the year, with a record-shattering $780 million, will be....

The Powerpuff Girls Movie!!!

Just kidding... Posted Image

OK, here's the way I see it:
    [*]Attack Of The Clones - $400 million. Despite the TPM backlash, it's still Star Wars, and it'd be foolish to bet against it. It won't do quite as well as TPM, but it will be the 5th film in history to crack the $400 million barrier.[*]Harry Potter & The Chamber Of Secrets - $320 million. I can't see Harry losing much of his audience, and whatever is lost will be made up by ticket prices being a bit higher a year later. CoS barely squeaks by TSS on the all-time list.[*]The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers - $290 million. TTT will pick up some audience from the FotR video release, but I believe it will lose much more from the people who gave FotR a try and didn't like it for whatever reason (i.e., the Richard Roepers of the world). Still, not a bad haul, and enough to leave both LotR films in the top 15 when the dust settles.[*]Spider-Man - $220 million. Tough to call, because there's as yet no real advance word on how well the film works. If it's good, it could do as well or better than the 1989 Batman ($250 million). If it's a stinker, it'll open big and drop fast, probably ending in the $170-$180 million range. So I'll split the difference. Either way, Spidey's going to make the bulk of his money in the 2 week window he has before AotC descends on the nation's screens.
All of the other big "tentpole" films (Minority Report, Spirit, Lilo & Stitch, Die Another Day, Signs, Austin Powers III, Men In Black II) I see coming in between $150 and $200 million. All will open big and fade fast, continuing the trend we've seen in the past few years. If any of these are real stinkers, they'll end closer to $100 million; if they turn out to be exceptional, they'll power past $200 million.

There will be a third group of films which will do in the $80 - $150 million range. These include titles like Sum Of All Fears and Star Trek: Nemesis, and a couple of the big "Oscar bait" titles with bankable stars (Road To Perdition - Tom Hanks, Gangs of New York - Leonardo DiCaprio).

It looks like it's going to be another good year for Hollywood box-office wise - now let's hope most of these films are actually worth going to the theaters to see!!

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#6 of 2232 OFFLINE   Matthew Chmiel

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Posted April 09 2002 - 05:17 AM

Attack of the Clones: Around $350 - 400 million.

TPM was a major hit (even if it sucked). One of the major factors for that was that nobody has ever seen a new Star Wars film in almost twenty years. Attack of the Clones might be a better movie, but it doesn't have all the buzz that TPM did.

The Two Towers: Around $280 - 320 million.

It could have a bigger gross than Fellowship of the Ring, especially since the film is more action oriented or it could do less than Fellowship of the Ring. Nobody knew that the first Lord of the Rings movie would pass the $300 million mark, so this is a hard guess.

Harry Potter And The Chamber Of Secrets: Around $275 - 310 million.

The first one was the hit, so I'm sure the second one will be a hit too. The only question is will the second one be able to pass the $300 million mark?

Spiderman: Around $210 - 240 million.

It'll make $200 million easily (especially when AOTC opens up), but can it make more than that? Hopefully Raimi will direct one of the best comicbook movies of all time, and it can't hurt to have Bruce Campbell in it Posted Image (hopefully that brother Ted of his is in it too Posted Image).

Scooby Doo: Around $45 - 80 million.

Big opening weekend, then people might realize the film sucks, and then nobody will go see it after opening weekend. Posted Image

Minority Report: I have no clue.

Spielberg's last film was a disaster at the box office (A.I.) and this is another sci-fi heavy film just with a bigger star (Cruise) and more action. I'm sure it'll be a hit, but I don't know.


#7 of 2232 OFFLINE   Paul W

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Posted April 09 2002 - 05:33 AM

SW:AOTC $375m
HP:COS $315m
LOTR:TT $310m
Spidey $220m
Minority Report $125m
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#8 of 2232 OFFLINE   Terrell

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Posted April 09 2002 - 05:48 AM

AOTC - 375 million
TTT - 300 million
Harry Potter - 310 million
Spiderman - 240 million

#9 of 2232 OFFLINE   Chuck Mayer

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Posted April 09 2002 - 06:14 AM

I skipped down to avoid others interpretations so I could go with the gut. None of this is mathematical or based on research...that is what Edwin P is for:p)

Spider-Man: $250 million (I agree less than three, but it has 13 solid days THEN the overflow...I expect it will do quite well).

Star Wars: Attack of the Clones: Even with not matching the fervor of 1999 and the expected enjoyment increase, and the letdown factor, this movie will JUST clear $400 million

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets: Built-in fanbase, plus new fans...this was never a Joe 6 Pack movie really. I will make almost what the first one made - $310 Million

And the hardest one...and the one I am most biased for:
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers. I don't think it will match FOTR, but I expect it will come close. Like SW, the eventual final tally keys a lot on repeat viewings by fans. I have every confidence that TTT can pull in new viewers with the battle scenes and the DVD super edition that people check out. But some won't come again. Call it a wash...$300 Million. This movie is the one that could be the hardest to call...it could go as low as $200M or as high as $375 M though. The others seem fairly fixed, except SW.

Tough to call, but I'm willing to eat it if I am wrong. They are safe predictions. I'll revise as info becomes availablePosted Image

Take care,
Chuck

EDIT: Amazing how close we all are so far, hedging our bets a little around the current numbers. It makes sense, though.
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#10 of 2232 OFFLINE   Terrell

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Posted April 09 2002 - 06:22 AM

Are we allowed to discuss it, or is this a predictions only thread?

#11 of 2232 OFFLINE   Dana Fillhart

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Posted April 09 2002 - 06:24 AM

I think we should discuss it. Otherwise it'd be a polls-type question.
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#12 of 2232 OFFLINE   Terrell

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Posted April 09 2002 - 06:42 AM

Well, if AOTC is as good as I believe it to be, I think it could surpass TPM. I don't think that will happen. But positive word of mouth, if it indeed is positive, may push it beyond 400 million. Right now I'm sticking with 375 million. I may have to revise that down to 350 million.

Harry Potter is not going to lose it's fans. I think the first one was good enough to get most everyone back. So it will come in around the same.

TTT will also be around the same, maybe slightly less or more. It may lose some people who didn't care for FOTR, but then it might gain some people who were pleasantly surprised.

The wildcard is Spiderman. All of the other films have sequels and a built-in fanbase. So we know pretty much how they're going to do, provided they don't stink, and I don't think they will. But Spiderman, even though there are comic book fans, that doesn't necessarily translate to film fanbase. I expect it to do very well. It will make a lot of money fast, until AOTC comes in. I don't expect it to make a lot on overflow. Mainly because in most big theaters, AOTC will probably be on 3-6 screens 24 hours a day. So I feel that people who want to see AOTC, will be able to get in. Certainly, Spiderman won't just up and disappear. But it's box office will sink in my opinion. Also, a lot will depend on how good of a film it is. The only review so far says it's fun, but flawed. So we'll have to wait. But then we do that with every film.

#13 of 2232 OFFLINE   Paul_D

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Posted April 09 2002 - 06:43 AM

Star Wars Episode 2: Attack of the Clones
$385million

Spider-Man
$190million

Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
$290million

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
$225million

Scooby Doo
$7.50. Posted Image

Minority Report
I'm with Matthew. This one's impossible to predict.
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#14 of 2232 OFFLINE   Matt Stone

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Posted April 09 2002 - 07:51 AM

SW:AOTC - $375 Million. Can't Wait for it, and think it's going to be better than TPM. I don't think it has a chance at 400 mil, but this might require an upward adjustment of ~50 mil depending on word of mouth. (This reflects an upward adjustment of $50 Million)

LOTR:TTT - $305 Million. Seems to have the potential to do as good as FotR based upon word of mouth. Many of the people that trashed FotR because they didn't know about sequels might give this one a shot.

HP:COS - $250 Million. Will do well, but won't bring on the same insane numbers that TSS did.

Spidey - $250 Million. ALA X-Men, will open huge and then drop off. Especially with AOTC being released shortly after. (This reflects an upward adjustment of $55 Million)
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#15 of 2232 OFFLINE   Malcolm R

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Posted April 09 2002 - 10:51 AM

*see ring, toss hat*

1. LOTR: The Two Towers $330M. The fanbase will repeat on this more than FOTR. Potential new audience from the HV release in the fall. Minimal fall-out from disgruntled/disappointed FOTR audience members.

2. SW: Attack of the Clones $320M. Too many people disappointed with TPM will wait for the DVD (I will be one). Fifth film in the series; how much innovation can be left? Trailers seem to have a "been there, done that" vibe to me. Fanbase will turn out, but casual viewers will be much more cautious.

3. HP: The Chamber of Secrets $250M. Weakest of the books to date. Everyone's anticipation to see HP and Hogwarts on screen for the first time has been sated. Families will have the first DVD at home, some may wait for second movie on DVD as well given fairly fast release schedule of first movie (November to May). "Sorcerer's Stone" didn't hold it's magic in repeated viewings.

4. Men in Black 2 $200M. No one else thinks this will be a hit? Fourth of July weekend? I think audiences are ready for a second helping of J & K. The first was cheezy, special-effects filled fun. The second should do as well.

5. Austin Powers 3 $185M. Trailer looks very funny. Publicity over the fight for the title cannot hurt. Should play nearly as well as the second film.

6. Spider-Man $170M. Will go fast out of the gate, but may not have long legs. Anticipation seems pretty weak and even the fanbase seems disappointed with what's been seen/heard so far in photos/trailers/interviews. Perhaps Columbia jumped the gun on sequel talk?

7. Minority Report $155M. Tom Cruise and Steven Spielberg. Either alone could guarantee a sizeable BO. "A.I." was a disappointment, but still made $80M. "Vanilla Sky" overcame bad word of mouth to go over $100M. Together they should ensure a sizeable hit, though the trailers are still more style over substance and I'm still not sure what exactly the story is about.

And, of course, there's bound to be a sleeper or two that will jump into the Top 5 at some point. Very hard to predict this early, not knowing the full scope of releases into the fall and holiday seasons.
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#16 of 2232 OFFLINE   Randall Z

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Posted April 09 2002 - 11:01 AM

Star Wars :AOTC - $365 million, i think this has the potential to be a great film, but with such a busy summer filmwise it could hurt Episode II's performance. Also the bad taste TPM left in everyone's mouth could hurt it.

Lord of the Rings: TTT - $320 million, with FOTR being nominated for best picture, TTT should have no problem dominating at the box office, especially considering it is being released after all the much-hyped summer films (spiderman, starwars, sum of all fears, minority report, etc.) have duked it out.

Harry Potter: COS - $250 million, considering how well the first one was received, i'd be shocked if the 2nd one didn't do as well.

Spiderman - $ 185 million. Unfortunately for Spiderman, I agree with most people who think that no matter how good it is, AOTC will knock all the wind out of its sails when it is released.

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#17 of 2232 OFFLINE   Terrell

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Posted April 09 2002 - 11:08 AM

Interesting! We have our first member predicting TTT wins this year's box office, which is ultimately what we're talking about. I like the going against the consensus aspect Malcolm. Makes for great conversation.

#18 of 2232 OFFLINE   Kami

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Posted April 09 2002 - 11:16 AM

SW: AOTC: $380m - Everyone I know will see it, and so will I (several times in fact) but I don't see it passing $400m.
LOTR: TTT: $320m - Everyone who even remotely enjoyed the first will see it, those who hated it because of the ending will most likely see it when they find out the story continues. Not only that, but many new LOTR fans are being created after the first movie. How long have the books been on the top 10 best sellers list? Quite a while, especially after the movie came out. This is going to create a whole new breed of fanatics who will most likely see it multiple times. I wouldn't be surprised if TTT could pull out $350m when all is said and done. This movie is going to be huge. Don't even get me started about the dramatic closing to the story in 2003, but that's another whole thread. Posted Image
HP: COS: $300m - not much to say here, it'll do good because of the large fan base.
Spiderman: $225m - Picked a bad time for an opening IMO, but it should do quite well I think.
Minority Report - No clue, but I am looking forward to this one with low to moderate expectations Posted Image


#19 of 2232 OFFLINE   Terrell

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Posted April 09 2002 - 11:24 AM

All I know is between LOTR and Star Wars, there's gonna be a lot of raving fanboys running around the next three years.Posted Image

#20 of 2232 OFFLINE   Malcolm R

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Posted April 09 2002 - 11:46 AM

I'm not afraid of George Lucas. Bring him on!

Seriously, though, I think SW is getting kind of stale. I know there's a huge fanbase, and I know there will be lots of repeat viewings, but I think the general public is starting to get a bit weary. I've never been a huge SW fan, though I own the first three on laserdisc, VHS, and will likely buy the DVD's when released, yet I grudgingly dragged myself to the theater for TPM and was severely disappointed. I'll be waiting for the DVD rental, I think, for AOTC and feel others will too unless GL has pulled a fantastic film out of his nether-regions and good word-of-mouth spreads beyond the fanbase.

I am a bit sad, however, that most all the films we're talking about here are series/sequels. I certainly hope there are a couple of original, below-the-radar sleepers to prove us all wrong. Posted Image
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