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Analysts say UHD will be the norm in 2018


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#1 of 8 OFFLINE   Kevin Collins

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Posted November 08 2013 - 09:09 PM

ABI research came out with a report predicting that even with limited 4K content, declining 4K prices will start the expansion of a UHD installed base via normal upgrade cycles.

 

Hmmmm.  "normal upgrade cycles"?  What is the "normal" upgrade cycle for a TV?  There was a forced upgrade cycle in the US because NTSC analog format was forced over to ATSC digital format.  Cable providers were tripping over themselves to move everything to digital so that they could save bandwidth space over copper to free up more lucrative space for high speed internet. 

 

Selling TVs was a great business when the transition from the bulky, low definition CRT to the high-definition flatscreen began. Consumers were upgrading en masse and they paid premium prices to do so. However, even as TV manufacturers invested in factories to produce LCD and plasma panels, a price war broke out.

 

The result was a bloodbath in the industry. Sony’s TV division has lost money for eight straight years and Panasonic is now exiting the plasma TV business altogether. An attempt to convince consumers to pay premium prices for 3D TVs failed to catch on.

 

Before HDTV came out, how often did you replace your TV?  I certainly don't believe the mass public in the US is on a 5yr TV upgrade cycle.

 

At any rate, ABI believes that outside of price the major selling points for UHD will over-the-top (OTT) services like Netflix's 4K streaming content and Sony's Video Unlimited 4K services.  Personally, I think the 4K content will shift primarily to streaming content vs. optical media.  This will primarily be the same reason that consumers switched from CD's to the iPod.  The difference here is that streaming is even more convenient that what the iPod offered in the fact that you never have to put the content on the device.  However, diehards like us, will still want optical media to satisfy our demanding criteria of ensuring we have the video and sound that was represented on the original movie.  We are kind of the "show me" types of folks that need to see this streaming stuff and validate that is matches the quality of optical disc.  Unfortunately, we are in the minority.

 

ABI also believes that upscaling will be a selling point for UHD.  They equate this to the wave of products from phones, tables and latest generation of game consoles that support 4K resolution.  If I put a 4K pixel test pattern on a 4K Smartphone screen, you will NOT be able to see those pixels.  However, the general public has been trained to believe that the mere mention of higher resolution equates to better product.

 

ABI ends with that mainstream UHD adoption could be as early as 2018.

 

To give their report some credence, practice director Sam Rosen said "Many consumers will have 4K panels without 4K content, or 4K game consoles without a 4K display, and will claim a superior 4K experience even though the technical merits are not quantifiable,"  My thoughts exactly.  If there are going to be technical merits that are quantifiable, read my What's going on with the BDA and 4K? thread. 


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#2 of 8 OFFLINE   schan1269

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Posted November 09 2013 - 05:44 AM

Just like cameras. MP war took center stage when it is the least important thing.

#3 of 8 OFFLINE   Jim Mcc

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Posted November 09 2013 - 05:29 PM

I'll believe it when I see it. Fox, ABC and ESPN are still broadcasting in 720p for goodness sake.

#4 of 8 OFFLINE   schan1269

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Posted November 09 2013 - 05:36 PM

I'll believe it when I see it. Fox, ABC and ESPN are still broadcasting in 720p for goodness sake.

720P/1080i is all broadcast will be.By the time we get to OTA 1080P, flying pigs will replace dogs as man's best friend.

#5 of 8 OFFLINE   Stephen_J_H

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Posted December 18 2013 - 01:38 PM

4K is a solution in search of a problem for the home market. When people are replacing TVs and the price differential between 1080p and 4K is negligible, that's when people will buy 4K. 2018 is a pipe dream.


"My opinion is that (a) anyone who actually works in a video store and does not understand letterboxing has given up on life, and (b) any customer who prefers to have the sides of a movie hacked off should not be licensed to operate a video player."-- Roger Ebert

#6 of 8 OFFLINE   Cinescott

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Posted December 18 2013 - 02:06 PM

I think we're hitting a wall with regard to image quality. 1080p is actually very, very good when done right and consumers are going to need a major selling hook to change. I've seen 4K on large 100+ inch displays and it's great, but what percentage of the population has a 100+ inch display? I have a 55" display and unless I was`3" from the screen, I doubt if I'd see much difference. Consumers balked at 1080p/digital hi definition until it was shoved down their throats by the FCC.  I don't see 4K having the same mandate.

 

Even the thought of a 4K phone makes me laugh. What's the point? Even 1080p with 5.8" to work with is useless.

 

I see major enthusiasts paying a premium for 4K, but with 1080p being the defacto standard for at least another decade.

 

Until then, I'd like to see existing technology made better. Make displays that are even lighter, cooler, and more durable.


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#7 of 8 OFFLINE   Chuck Anstey

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Posted December 19 2013 - 01:08 PM

To me and pretty much everyone I know, a normal "upgrade cycle" for TVs is 'use it til it breaks or is completely worn out'.  Now manufacturers may have already built in a seriously short lifespan into TVs sold in the last 10 years but 4K and 2018 is just silly.  Sure, maybe 2-5% of US households might have a UHD TV by 2018 but certainly not an install base that drives anything.



#8 of 8 OFFLINE   schan1269

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Posted December 19 2013 - 01:28 PM

I'm going to laugh when Samsung and Vizio get cornered when time comes to buy their OLED.S/V reps..."You must buy this because it is better than LED".Consumer"But you said LED was the next best thing to OLED"S/V rep"We were lying to the entire Joe Idiot marketplace. Buy the new TV cause, now, we are telling the truth"




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