Blu-ray growth by the numbers. How do you think its doing as a format? (1 Viewer)

Adam Gregorich · Apr 29, 2011

Its interesting to ready the threads here and see the difference in optinion members have as to how Blu-ray is doing. Here are some actual numbers. Personally the one I find most encouraging is that sales are increasing and that packaged media is still much stronger than streaming media.

Here are some of the numbers:

· According to IHS Screen Digest, household penetration of dedicated Blu-ray set-top players nearly doubled as compared to the first quarter of 2010.

· FutureSource forecasts wider Blu-ray Disc sales growth in 2011 on the strength of hardware penetration - estimating nearly 50 million Blu-ray playback devices in U.S. homes by year's end with Blu-ray Disc sales exceeding 120 million units, up from 85 million sold in 2010.

· The NPD Group reported April 18 that consumers are spending more on the purchase and rental of Blu-ray Disc and DVD packaged media.

· Comparing the first nine months of 3D TV sales to the first full year of HDTV sales, HIS Screen Digest noted that 3D TV adoption is outpacing HDTV adoption by 50 percent.

· FutureSource projects that by 2015, 3D TVs will be in more than 60% of US households and 3D Blu-ray players will be in more than 75% of US households.

[FONT= 'Calibri']Numbers at a Glance[/FONT][FONT= 'Calibri'][/FONT]

Hardware

Source

93% increase in number of households with BD set-top play at end of Q1 2011 as compared to end of Q1 2010

IHS Screen Digest

Nearly 50 million playback devices in US homes by end of 2011

FutureSource

Software

26.5% increase in Q1 software unit sales as compared to Q1 2010

IHS Screen Digest

Software sales projected to reach 120 million in 2011 as compared to 85 million sold in 2010

FutureSource

3D

Combined 533% increase in 3D spending in US, UK Germany & France for 2011

IHS Screen Digest

Nine month adoption rate of 3D TV outpacing first year HDTV adoption by 50%

IHS Screen Digest

More than 60% of US households projected to have 3D TV by 2015

FutureSource

More than 75% of US households projected to have 3D Blu-ray player by 2015

FutureSource

Packaged media versus Streaming/VOD

78% of home video budgets spent on Blu-ray & DVD versus 22% on streaming/subscription services

The NPD Group

77% of consumers watched a movie on DVD/BD (in the past 3 months)

The NPD Group

68% of consumers watched a movie on TV/cable (in the past 3 months)

The NPD Group

49% of consumers watched a movie in the theater (in the past 3 months)

The NPD Group

21% of consumers watched a movie on VOD through their TV (in the past 3 months)

The NPD Group

benbess · Apr 29, 2011

This all seems like very good news. Unless I'm missing something, it looks to me like the format it thriving. That's good, because it means more movies will be coming out on blu...

Cinescott · Apr 29, 2011

This is very good news indeed. Long term, the money's definitely following streaming to increase and Blu-ray/DVD to flatline at a higher level. However, this is very encouraging for the long-term prospects for Blu-ray. With so many great titles in the pipeline, market penetration for Blu-ray will undoubtedly increase.

JoHud · Apr 29, 2011

Very interesting to see that Bluray/DVD movies outpaces watching movies on TV. Thought TiVo and such helped level that playing field. Did not expect DVD/Bluray to be king of the roost.

I'm not sure if this is related to streaming, but Warner recently announced very large profits for its internet sector over its TV/cable sector. Its sort of got me thinking that streaming is more of a competition for TV subscription than the purchase of individual movies on Blu-ray/DVD.

Though I wounder what a Blu-ray/DVD combo package is tallied as?

Also, is it possible to stream 3D movies through VOD?

Ethan Riley · Apr 29, 2011

"More than 60% of US households projected to have 3D TV by 2015. More than 75% of US households projected to have 3D Blu-ray player by 2015" --FutureSource

Okay, I believe everything in the original post, but these projections from "FutureSource" seem more like wishful thinking than anything else. 75% in four years??? No. Uh-uh. No way. IF the format takes off, IF it's more wildly popular than people think, IF the studios standardize 3D television...then, yes. But that's a LOT of "ifs." Half the people you'll talk to don't like 3D, have zero interest in it, and another probably 25% aren't going to want to spend that kind of money. Another 25% will be interested, but only a small percentage of THEM will be able to afford 3D. Four years is just not enough time to resolve all those "ifs," and it makes me think the studios or tv manufacturers are paying big $$ to get "FutureSource" to skew some numbers their way. THAT's what I think.

Ryan-G · Apr 29, 2011

Originally Posted by Ethan Riley

"More than 60% of US households projected to have 3D TV by 2015. More than 75% of US households projected to have 3D Blu-ray player by 2015" --FutureSource

Okay, I believe everything in the original post, but these projections from "FutureSource" seem more like wishful thinking than anything else. 75% in four years??? No. Uh-uh. No way. IF the format takes off, IF it's more wildly popular than people think, IF the studios standardize 3D television...then, yes. But that's a LOT of "ifs." Half the people you'll talk to don't like 3D, have zero interest in it, and another probably 25% aren't going to want to spend that kind of money. Another 25% will be interested, but only a small percentage of THEM will be able to afford 3D. Four years is just not enough time to resolve all those "ifs," and it makes me think the studios or tv manufacturers are paying big $$ to get "FutureSource" to skew some numbers their way. THAT's what I think.

I agree completely, there's no way 3D TV's going to make any significant pentration by 2015 without major changes.

1. Glasses. The glasses are a major problem, people do not want to have to wear glasses to watch things on TV. It's a massive inconvience and self-image problem.

2. Cost. Even if the glasses are overcome, we're still talking another TV purchase, and people just bought into HDTV. People aren't going to go but another new TV without a major hook, and TBH, I'm not convinced 3D is a hook, I still think it's a fad. Mainly because so many movies are trying to do the 1970's "Oooohhh! Look, something flew out of my TV at me!" instead of using the added depth of image to do something never-before-seen.

I just don't see it happening right now. The only thing that might change things is if someone manages to develop a solid glassesless 3DTV, and even then it'll take a few "Killer app" movies.

Cinescott · Apr 30, 2011

There is no way 3D will have 75% by 2015. The main reason it's gone as far as it has is because many larger HDTVs aren't offered with non-3D versions. The large factors driving sales right now (anemic as they are from the recession) are bigger screens, lower prices, and thinner/lighter designs.

Ethan Riley · Apr 30, 2011

Originally Posted by Cinescott

There is no way 3D will have 75% by 2015. The main reason it's gone as far as it has is because many larger HDTVs aren't offered with non-3D versions. The large factors driving sales right now (anemic as they are from the recession) are bigger screens, lower prices, and thinner/lighter designs.

I can't even believe that a majority of filmmakers want to present their movies in 3-D. I mean, can you imagine "The King's Speech" in 3-D or something like that. Nope--! 3-D is fun for silly summer popcorn entertainments but would look ridiculous for serious films. That said, if the majority of films are not done in 3-D, then why the big push for 3-D televisions??

And, call me crazy, but I like to see movies in actual color, not blue and red. There's still a lot of blue/red 3-D films out there. And something else we rarely touch upon--who's to say that watching 3-D all the time doesn't screw up your eyes, big time? That's something we don't really know. I worry that people's visions will suddenly start going blurry.

Ryan-G · Apr 30, 2011

Originally Posted by Ethan Riley

I can't even believe that a majority of filmmakers want to present their movies in 3-D. I mean, can you imagine "The King's Speech" in 3-D or something like that. Nope--! 3-D is fun for silly summer popcorn entertainments but would look ridiculous for serious films. That said, if the majority of films are not done in 3-D, then why the big push for 3-D televisions??

And, call me crazy, but I like to see movies in actual color, not blue and red. There's still a lot of blue/red 3-D films out there. And something else we rarely touch upon--who's to say that watching 3-D all the time doesn't screw up your eyes, big time? That's something we don't really know. I worry that people's visions will suddenly start going blurry.

I actually have to disagree with you here.

We've been trained to assume that 3D = stuff flying out of the screen, but that isn't the only door it opens. 3D can be used simply to add a depth facet to a screen, the actors taking on rounded appearance instead of flat 2D imagery. It can also be used simply to add layers to an image, much like what occurred with Avatar's "Recording sessions" where the computer overlays appeared as just a layer. It has more uses, many more.

A large part of how we perceive things is through the images our eyes transmit, with 2D imagery, it's very likely the impact of any given scene is lessened by the fact that as the brain processes it, the brain instinctively recognizes it as false imagery. It's entirely possible that just by shifting to "Natural 3D" (Meaning just adding the depth to the movie) we could heighten the emotional impact and thusly the experience. Much like Surround Sound improves the experience by becoming more immersive.

As far as the health effects, you bring up a good point. Many of the current approaches manipulate the way we see things in order to trick the brain into processing images differently. Red/Blue, Shutter glasses, those seriously manipulate the way the brain is processing images. It isn't impossible that it might, over time, have negative impact. I'm not well versed in the polarized implementations to make any kind of statements.

Other techniques may prove to be less of an issue, if we don't have to trick the brain into processing things in a strange manner, we should be ok. Unfortunately, I'm not aware of any implementations that are ready for prime time at the moment.

Brent M · Apr 30, 2011

Originally Posted by Cinescott

There is no way 3D will have 75% by 2015.

I'm with you there. Those numbers are absolutely ridiculous. At this moment, I know exactly ONE person with a 3D TV and he just bought it because he has more money than he knows what to do with it.

dmiller68 · May 1, 2011

Originally Posted by Brent M

I'm with you there. Those numbers are absolutely ridiculous. At this moment, I know exactly ONE person with a 3D TV and he just bought it because he has more money than he knows what to do with it.

I think you may mis-understand how this works... If all the manufactures start producing 3D devices then 2015 should be no big deal, it is 4 years after all. This is how we finally ended up with HDTV. Finally after years it is the fact all manufactures produced them (and a little government help) that people stopped buying 4:3 analog TV's. The real question well people use 3D, I love 3D movies. There are so many examples of good 3D. The only thing that drives me crazy is the exclusivity we are seeing.

Cinescott · May 1, 2011

3D's penetration will get a lot higher than now. Maybe not the 60-75% figure, but higher simply because every TV will start to have it and every Blu-ray player will have it. Whether it's used or not is a more important concept.

ahollis · May 1, 2011

Originally Posted by dmiller68

I think you may mis-understand how this works... If all the manufactures start producing 3D devices then 2015 should be no big deal, it is 4 years after all. This is how we finally ended up with HDTV. Finally after years it is the fact all manufactures produced them (and a little government help) that people stopped buying 4:3 analog TV's. The real question well people use 3D, I love 3D movies. There are so many examples of good 3D. The only thing that drives me crazy is the exclusivity we are seeing.

I'm going to have to disagree with that statement. Most everyone in the country just upgraded and purchased HD flat screen TV's the past three years in anticipation on the HD change. They are not going to purchase another one in four years, it will more likely be ten to fifteen years, especially if the economy does not turn around in the next couple of years.

dmiller68 · May 1, 2011

Originally Posted by ahollis

I'm going to have to disagree with that statement. Most everyone in the country just upgraded and purchased HD flat screen TV's the past three years in anticipation on the HD change. They are not going to purchase another one in four years, it will more likely be ten to fifteen years, especially if the economy does not turn around in the next couple of years.

That's the fun of these conversations we can agree to disagree...

Let's use for example all new Denon receivers support 3D, Most of the mid level or better Bluray players support 3D now. I would bet 50% or more of the 2011 TV's support 3D. The question is will people buy them given the limited material out there. I think the tide will change. As far as the economy goes it is what it is but people still buy hometheater gear or this site would have no reason to be around. I also disagree that all the HDTV's have been bought already given the millions of converter boxes the government had to send out. So... Only time will tell.

Cees Alons · May 1, 2011

But... back to Blu-ray proper,.... those figures are impressive and correspond with what I think I see around.

The format is here to stay, me-thinks.

Cees

Cinescott · May 1, 2011

Originally Posted by Cees Alons

But... back to Blu-ray proper,.... those figures are impressive and correspond with what I think I see around.

The format is here to stay, me-thinks.

Cees

Yeah, I don't think it's going anywhere anytime soon.

Stephen_J_H · May 1, 2011

I also think that the spike in Warners' internet division numbers have more to do with the Warner Archive BOD sales than streaming video. Think about it.

Jeffrey Nelson · May 1, 2011

Originally Posted by Ethan Riley

I can't even believe that a majority of filmmakers want to present their movies in 3-D. I mean, can you imagine "The King's Speech" in 3-D or something like that. Nope--! 3-D is fun for silly summer popcorn entertainments but would look ridiculous for serious films. That said, if the majority of films are not done in 3-D, then why the big push for 3-D televisions??

And, call me crazy, but I like to see movies in actual color, not blue and red. There's still a lot of blue/red 3-D films out there. And something else we rarely touch upon--who's to say that watching 3-D all the time doesn't screw up your eyes, big time? That's something we don't really know. I worry that people's visions will suddenly start going blurry.

Here we go with the red/blue nonsense again.

Most 3D theatrical presentations were/are polarized 3D, even in the '50s. NOT the red/blue anaglyph format, which was mainly used as a low-cost (and lousy) conversion alternative for theaters that couldn't afford to install the special screens, or for television presentations.

Scott Merryfield · May 2, 2011

Originally Posted by ahollis /forum/thread/311028/blu-ray-growth...-you-think-its-doing-as-a-format#post_3806656

hampsteadbandit · May 2, 2011

I can only look at my immediate circle of friends and family here in the UK

I am the only one to have invested in a Blu-Ray player, we all earn good money and like watching films, but they have not seen the need to make the investment?

the rest of my friends and family have purchased HD displays in the past 2 years, simply because their CRT display wore out, and the new HD displays were larger in screen size and cost less, it was a no brainer and actually all that the electrical stores were selling

but they have not invested in HD sources like Blu-Ray or Sky HD (subscription TV) simply because they don't see any need...they are still using DVD players (some using upscaling DVD players because their old DVD player wore out) and are viewing regular TV channels

I've tried to convince them, when they visit by putting on a great Blu-Ray movie, but they seem to have other priorities than investing in HD systems

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