Jump to content



Sign up for a free account to remove the pop-up ads

Signing up for an account is fast and free. As a member you can join in the conversation, enter contests and remove the pop-up ads that guests get. Click here to create your free account.

Photo
- - - - -

Blu-ray growth by the numbers. How do you think its doing as a format?


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
22 replies to this topic

#1 of 23 OFFLINE   Adam Gregorich

Adam Gregorich

    Executive Producer



  • 14,916 posts
  • Join Date: Nov 20 1999
  • LocationThe Other Washington

Posted April 29 2011 - 09:40 AM

Its interesting to ready the threads here and see the difference in optinion members have as to how Blu-ray is doing.  Here are some actual numbers.  Personally the one I find most encouraging is that sales are increasing and that packaged media is still much stronger than streaming media.


Here are some of the numbers:




·         According to IHS Screen Digest, household penetration of dedicated Blu-ray set-top players nearly doubled as compared to the first quarter of 2010. 

 

·         FutureSource forecasts wider Blu-ray Disc sales growth in 2011 on the strength of hardware penetration - estimating nearly 50 million Blu-ray playback devices in U.S. homes by year's end with Blu-ray Disc sales exceeding 120 million units, up from 85 million sold in 2010.

 

·         The NPD Group reported April 18 that consumers are spending more on the purchase and rental of Blu-ray Disc and DVD packaged media.

 

·         Comparing the first nine months of 3D TV sales to the first full year of HDTV sales, HIS Screen Digest noted that 3D TV adoption is outpacing HDTV adoption by 50 percent.

 

·         FutureSource projects that by 2015, 3D TVs will be in more than 60% of US households and 3D Blu-ray players will be in more than 75% of US households.

 

Numbers at a Glance


Hardware

Source

93% increase in number of households with BD set-top play at end of Q1 2011 as compared to end of Q1 2010

IHS Screen Digest

Nearly 50 million playback devices in US homes by end of 2011

FutureSource

Software

 

26.5% increase in Q1 software unit sales as compared to Q1 2010

IHS Screen Digest

Software sales projected to reach 120 million in 2011 as compared to 85 million sold in 2010

FutureSource

3D

 

Combined 533% increase in 3D spending in US, UK Germany & France for 2011

IHS Screen Digest

Nine month adoption rate of 3D TV outpacing first year HDTV adoption by 50%

IHS Screen Digest

More than 60% of US households projected to have 3D TV by 2015

FutureSource

More than 75% of US households projected to have 3D Blu-ray player by 2015

FutureSource

Packaged media versus Streaming/VOD

 

78% of home video budgets spent on Blu-ray & DVD versus 22% on streaming/subscription services

The NPD Group

77% of consumers watched a movie on DVD/BD (in the past 3 months)

The NPD Group

68% of consumers watched a movie on TV/cable (in the past 3 months)

The NPD Group

49% of consumers watched a movie in the theater (in the past 3 months)

The NPD Group

21% of consumers watched a movie on VOD through their TV (in the past 3 months)

The NPD Group

 



#2 of 23 OFFLINE   benbess

benbess

    Screenwriter



  • 1,853 posts
  • Join Date: Sep 07 2009

Posted April 29 2011 - 09:47 AM

This all seems like very good news. Unless I'm missing something, it looks to me like the format it thriving. That's good, because it means more movies will be coming out on blu...



#3 of 23 OFFLINE   Cinescott

Cinescott

    Supporting Actor



  • 838 posts
  • Join Date: Nov 02 2010
  • Real Name:Scott
  • LocationMilwaukee, WI

Posted April 29 2011 - 10:52 AM

This is very good news indeed. Long term, the money's definitely following streaming to increase and Blu-ray/DVD to flatline at a higher level. However, this is very encouraging for the long-term prospects for Blu-ray. With so many great titles in the pipeline, market penetration for Blu-ray will undoubtedly increase.


"There are two types of people in the world, my friend. Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."


#4 of 23 OFFLINE   JoHud

JoHud

    Screenwriter



  • 2,728 posts
  • Join Date: Sep 11 2007
  • Real Name:Joe Hudak

Posted April 29 2011 - 11:38 AM

Very interesting to see that Bluray/DVD movies outpaces watching movies on TV.  Thought TiVo and such helped level that playing field.  Did not expect DVD/Bluray to be king of the roost.


I'm not sure if this is related to streaming, but Warner recently announced very large profits for its internet sector over its TV/cable sector.  Its sort of got me thinking that streaming is more of a competition for TV subscription than the purchase of individual movies on Blu-ray/DVD.


Though I wounder what a Blu-ray/DVD combo package is tallied as?


Also, is it possible to stream 3D movies through VOD?



#5 of 23 OFFLINE   Ethan Riley

Ethan Riley

    Producer



  • 3,394 posts
  • Join Date: Oct 12 2005

Posted April 29 2011 - 02:06 PM

"More than 60% of US households projected to have 3D TV by 2015. More than 75% of US households projected to have 3D Blu-ray player by 2015" --FutureSource


Okay, I believe everything in the original post, but these projections from "FutureSource" seem more like wishful thinking than anything else. 75% in four years??? No. Uh-uh. No way. IF the format takes off, IF it's more wildly popular than people think, IF the studios standardize 3D television...then, yes. But that's a LOT of "ifs." Half the people you'll talk to don't like 3D, have zero interest in it, and another probably 25% aren't going to want to spend that kind of money. Another 25% will be interested, but only a small percentage of THEM will be able to afford 3D. Four years is just not enough time to resolve all those "ifs," and it makes me think the studios or tv manufacturers are paying big $$ to get "FutureSource" to skew some numbers their way. THAT's what I think.


 

 


#6 of 23 OFFLINE   Ryan-G

Ryan-G

    Supporting Actor



  • 621 posts
  • Join Date: Oct 13 2005

Posted April 29 2011 - 06:30 PM



Originally Posted by Ethan Riley 

"More than 60% of US households projected to have 3D TV by 2015. More than 75% of US households projected to have 3D Blu-ray player by 2015" --FutureSource


Okay, I believe everything in the original post, but these projections from "FutureSource" seem more like wishful thinking than anything else. 75% in four years??? No. Uh-uh. No way. IF the format takes off, IF it's more wildly popular than people think, IF the studios standardize 3D television...then, yes. But that's a LOT of "ifs." Half the people you'll talk to don't like 3D, have zero interest in it, and another probably 25% aren't going to want to spend that kind of money. Another 25% will be interested, but only a small percentage of THEM will be able to afford 3D. Four years is just not enough time to resolve all those "ifs," and it makes me think the studios or tv manufacturers are paying big $$ to get "FutureSource" to skew some numbers their way. THAT's what I think.



I agree completely,  there's no way 3D TV's going to make any significant pentration by 2015 without major changes.


1.  Glasses.  The glasses are a major problem,  people do not want to have to wear glasses to watch things on TV.  It's a massive inconvience and self-image problem.

2.  Cost.  Even if the glasses are overcome,  we're still talking another TV purchase,  and people just bought into HDTV.  People aren't going to go but another new TV without a major hook,  and TBH,  I'm not convinced 3D is a hook,  I still think it's a fad.  Mainly because so many movies are trying to do the 1970's "Oooohhh!  Look,  something flew out of my TV at me!" instead of using the added depth of image to do something never-before-seen.


I just don't see it happening right now.  The only thing that might change things is if someone manages to develop a solid glassesless 3DTV,  and even then it'll take a few "Killer app" movies.



#7 of 23 OFFLINE   Cinescott

Cinescott

    Supporting Actor



  • 838 posts
  • Join Date: Nov 02 2010
  • Real Name:Scott
  • LocationMilwaukee, WI

Posted April 30 2011 - 12:11 AM

There is no way 3D will have 75% by 2015. The main reason it's gone as far as it has is because many larger HDTVs aren't offered with non-3D versions. The large factors driving sales right now (anemic as they are from the recession) are bigger screens, lower prices, and thinner/lighter designs.


"There are two types of people in the world, my friend. Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."


#8 of 23 OFFLINE   Ethan Riley

Ethan Riley

    Producer



  • 3,394 posts
  • Join Date: Oct 12 2005

Posted April 30 2011 - 09:47 AM



Originally Posted by Cinescott 

There is no way 3D will have 75% by 2015. The main reason it's gone as far as it has is because many larger HDTVs aren't offered with non-3D versions. The large factors driving sales right now (anemic as they are from the recession) are bigger screens, lower prices, and thinner/lighter designs.



I can't even believe that a majority of filmmakers want to present their movies in 3-D. I mean, can you imagine "The King's Speech" in 3-D or something like that. Nope--! 3-D is fun for silly summer popcorn entertainments but would look ridiculous for serious films. That said, if the majority of films are not done in 3-D, then why the big push for 3-D televisions??


And, call me crazy, but I like to see movies in actual color, not blue and red. There's still a lot of blue/red 3-D films out there. And something else we rarely touch upon--who's to say that watching 3-D all the time doesn't screw up your eyes, big time? That's something we don't really know. I worry that people's visions will suddenly start going blurry.


 

 


#9 of 23 OFFLINE   Ryan-G

Ryan-G

    Supporting Actor



  • 621 posts
  • Join Date: Oct 13 2005

Posted April 30 2011 - 04:09 PM



Originally Posted by Ethan Riley 





I can't even believe that a majority of filmmakers want to present their movies in 3-D. I mean, can you imagine "The King's Speech" in 3-D or something like that. Nope--! 3-D is fun for silly summer popcorn entertainments but would look ridiculous for serious films. That said, if the majority of films are not done in 3-D, then why the big push for 3-D televisions??


And, call me crazy, but I like to see movies in actual color, not blue and red. There's still a lot of blue/red 3-D films out there. And something else we rarely touch upon--who's to say that watching 3-D all the time doesn't screw up your eyes, big time? That's something we don't really know. I worry that people's visions will suddenly start going blurry.



I actually have to disagree with you here.


We've been trained to assume that 3D = stuff flying out of the screen,  but that isn't the only door it opens.  3D can be used simply to add a depth facet to a screen,  the actors taking on rounded appearance instead of flat 2D imagery.  It can also be used simply to add layers to an image,  much like what occurred with Avatar's "Recording sessions" where the computer overlays appeared as just a layer.  It has more uses,  many more.


A large part of how we perceive things is through the images our eyes transmit,  with 2D imagery,  it's very likely the impact of any given scene is lessened by the fact that as the brain processes it,  the brain instinctively recognizes it as false imagery.  It's entirely possible that just by shifting to "Natural 3D" (Meaning just adding the depth to the movie) we could heighten the emotional impact and thusly the experience.  Much like Surround Sound improves the experience by becoming more immersive.


As far as the health effects,  you bring up a good point.  Many of the current approaches manipulate the way we see things in order to trick the brain into processing images differently.  Red/Blue,  Shutter glasses,  those seriously manipulate the way the brain is processing images.  It isn't impossible that it might,  over time,  have negative impact.  I'm not well versed in the polarized implementations to make any kind of statements.


Other techniques may prove to be less of an issue,  if we don't have to trick the brain into processing things in a strange manner,  we should be ok.  Unfortunately,  I'm not aware of any implementations that are ready for prime time at the moment.



#10 of 23 OFFLINE   Brent M

Brent M

    Producer



  • 4,486 posts
  • Join Date: Oct 15 2001

Posted April 30 2011 - 07:02 PM



Originally Posted by Cinescott 

There is no way 3D will have 75% by 2015.


I'm with you there. Those numbers are absolutely ridiculous. At this moment, I know exactly ONE person with a 3D TV and he just bought it because he has more money than he knows what to do with it.


"If you're good at something, never do it for free."

#11 of 23 OFFLINE   dmiller68

dmiller68

    Supporting Actor



  • 667 posts
  • Join Date: Sep 29 2009

Posted May 01 2011 - 04:30 AM


Originally Posted by Brent M 




I'm with you there. Those numbers are absolutely ridiculous. At this moment, I know exactly ONE person with a 3D TV and he just bought it because he has more money than he knows what to do with it.


I think you may mis-understand how this works... If all the manufactures start producing 3D devices then 2015 should be no big deal, it is 4 years after all. This is how we finally ended up with HDTV. Finally after years it is the fact all manufactures produced them (and a little government help) that people stopped buying 4:3 analog TV's. The real question well people use 3D, I love 3D movies. There are so many examples of good 3D. The only thing that drives me crazy is the exclusivity we are seeing.



Equipment: Panasonic TC-P65VT25, Panasonic DMP-BDT100, Pioneer Elite SC-37, TiVo Premiere XL, Limited Edition MW3 XBOX 360s with Kinect, Apple TV
Speakers: Definitive Technology Mythos XTR60 (3), Definitive Technology Mythos XTR20BP (4), Definitive Technology SuperCube II


#12 of 23 OFFLINE   Cinescott

Cinescott

    Supporting Actor



  • 838 posts
  • Join Date: Nov 02 2010
  • Real Name:Scott
  • LocationMilwaukee, WI

Posted May 01 2011 - 04:34 AM

3D's penetration will get a lot higher than now. Maybe not the 60-75% figure, but higher simply because every TV will start to have it and every Blu-ray player will have it. Whether it's used or not is a more important concept.


"There are two types of people in the world, my friend. Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."


#13 of 23 OFFLINE   ahollis

ahollis

    Producer



  • 5,839 posts
  • Join Date: Mar 01 2007
  • Real Name:Allen
  • LocationNew Orleans

Posted May 01 2011 - 04:50 AM




Originally Posted by dmiller68 

I think you may mis-understand how this works... If all the manufactures start producing 3D devices then 2015 should be no big deal, it is 4 years after all. This is how we finally ended up with HDTV. Finally after years it is the fact all manufactures produced them (and a little government help) that people stopped buying 4:3 analog TV's. The real question well people use 3D, I love 3D movies. There are so many examples of good 3D. The only thing that drives me crazy is the exclusivity we are seeing.




I'm going to have to disagree with that statement.  Most everyone in the country just upgraded and purchased HD flat screen TV's the past three years in anticipation on the HD change.  They are not going to purchase another one in four years, it will more likely be ten to fifteen years, especially if the economy does not turn around in the next couple of years.



"Get a director and a writer and leave them alone. That`s how the best pictures get made" - William "Wild Bill" Wellman


#14 of 23 OFFLINE   dmiller68

dmiller68

    Supporting Actor



  • 667 posts
  • Join Date: Sep 29 2009

Posted May 01 2011 - 05:30 AM


Originally Posted by ahollis 






I'm going to have to disagree with that statement.  Most everyone in the country just upgraded and purchased HD flat screen TV's the past three years in anticipation on the HD change.  They are not going to purchase another one in four years, it will more likely be ten to fifteen years, especially if the economy does not turn around in the next couple of years.



That's the fun of these conversations we can agree to disagree... :)


Let's use for example all new Denon receivers support 3D, Most of the mid level or better Bluray players support 3D now. I would bet 50% or more of the 2011 TV's support 3D. The question is will people buy them given the limited material out there. I think the tide will change. As far as the economy goes it is what it is but people still buy hometheater gear or this site would have no reason to be around. I also disagree that all the HDTV's have been bought already given the millions of converter boxes the government had to send out. So... Only time will tell.



Equipment: Panasonic TC-P65VT25, Panasonic DMP-BDT100, Pioneer Elite SC-37, TiVo Premiere XL, Limited Edition MW3 XBOX 360s with Kinect, Apple TV
Speakers: Definitive Technology Mythos XTR60 (3), Definitive Technology Mythos XTR20BP (4), Definitive Technology SuperCube II


#15 of 23 OFFLINE   Cees Alons

Cees Alons

    Executive Producer



  • 18,662 posts
  • Join Date: Jul 31 1997
  • Real Name:Cees Alons

Posted May 01 2011 - 06:18 AM

But... back to Blu-ray proper,.... those figures are impressive and correspond with what I think I see around.


The format is here to stay, me-thinks.



Cees



#16 of 23 OFFLINE   Cinescott

Cinescott

    Supporting Actor



  • 838 posts
  • Join Date: Nov 02 2010
  • Real Name:Scott
  • LocationMilwaukee, WI

Posted May 01 2011 - 09:42 AM



Originally Posted by Cees Alons 

But... back to Blu-ray proper,.... those figures are impressive and correspond with what I think I see around.


The format is here to stay, me-thinks.



Cees


Yeah, I don't think it's going anywhere anytime soon.



"There are two types of people in the world, my friend. Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."


#17 of 23 OFFLINE   Stephen_J_H

Stephen_J_H

    Producer



  • 4,074 posts
  • Join Date: Jul 30 2003
  • Real Name:Stephen J. Hill
  • LocationNorth of the 49th

Posted May 01 2011 - 11:33 AM

I also think that the spike in Warners' internet division numbers have more to do with the Warner Archive BOD sales than streaming video. Think about it.


"My opinion is that (a) anyone who actually works in a video store and does not understand letterboxing has given up on life, and (b) any customer who prefers to have the sides of a movie hacked off should not be licensed to operate a video player."-- Roger Ebert

#18 of 23 OFFLINE   Jeffrey Nelson

Jeffrey Nelson

    Screenwriter



  • 1,066 posts
  • Join Date: Sep 04 2003
  • Real Name:Jeffrey Nelson
  • LocationSeattle, WA

Posted May 01 2011 - 12:52 PM



Originally Posted by Ethan Riley 





I can't even believe that a majority of filmmakers want to present their movies in 3-D. I mean, can you imagine "The King's Speech" in 3-D or something like that. Nope--! 3-D is fun for silly summer popcorn entertainments but would look ridiculous for serious films. That said, if the majority of films are not done in 3-D, then why the big push for 3-D televisions??


And, call me crazy, but I like to see movies in actual color, not blue and red. There's still a lot of blue/red 3-D films out there. And something else we rarely touch upon--who's to say that watching 3-D all the time doesn't screw up your eyes, big time? That's something we don't really know. I worry that people's visions will suddenly start going blurry.


Here we go with the red/blue nonsense again.


Most 3D theatrical presentations were/are polarized 3D, even in the '50s.  NOT the red/blue anaglyph format, which was mainly used as a low-cost (and lousy) conversion alternative for theaters that couldn't afford to install the special screens, or for television presentations.




#19 of 23 OFFLINE   Scott Merryfield

Scott Merryfield

    Executive Producer



  • 10,649 posts
  • Join Date: Dec 16 1998
  • LocationMichigan

Posted May 02 2011 - 04:12 AM



Originally Posted by ahollis 






I'm going to have to disagree with that statement.  Most everyone in the country just upgraded and purchased HD flat screen TV's the past three years in anticipation on the HD change.  They are not going to purchase another one in four years, it will more likely be ten to fifteen years, especially if the economy does not turn around in the next couple of years.




While I cannot produce any market data to back this statement up, I do agree. Just about everyone I know has purchased a "big screen" HDTV in the past  few years. Of my circle of family and friends, I am by far the biggest home theater geek and I have absolutely zero interest in replacing my 30-month old Samsung 67-inch LED DLP set just to get 3D. If I'm not going to do this, I am quite certain that none of our family or friends will be doing so.


The numbers on BD market penetration are encouraging, though. I have certainly been helping those numbers. Posted Image



#20 of 23 OFFLINE   hampsteadbandit

hampsteadbandit

    Stunt Coordinator



  • 155 posts
  • Join Date: Aug 24 2009

Posted May 02 2011 - 07:03 AM

I can only look at my immediate circle of friends and family here in the UK


I am the only one to have invested in a Blu-Ray player, we all earn good money and like watching films, but they have not seen the need to make the investment?



the rest of my friends and family have purchased HD displays in the past 2 years, simply because their CRT display wore out, and the new HD displays were larger in screen size and cost less, it was a no brainer and actually all that the electrical stores were selling


but they have not invested in HD sources like Blu-Ray or Sky HD (subscription TV) simply because they don't see any need...they are still using DVD players (some using upscaling DVD players because their old DVD player wore out) and are viewing regular TV channels


I've tried to convince them, when they visit by putting on a great Blu-Ray movie, but they seem to have other priorities than investing in HD systems