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The 2011 American Idol #10 HTF TOP TEN CHALLENGE: All details here....


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#1 of 93 OFFLINE   RAF

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Posted March 17 2011 - 01:18 PM

We're baaaaaack............


Actually, I've been away for a bit thanks to this lousy pancreatic cancer that I'm tangling with.  Because of the Chemotherapy and other complications I didn't feel that I could provide adequate moderation of one of our more popular contests.  But member Yee-Ming has graciously volunteered to take over that task so we WILL be having a contest with a nice Blu-ray DVD prize package to the winner as in years past!  Owner Adam Gregorich will be putting together that package as we get closer to the final week of the competition.


But let's talk a bit about how this is going to work.  Because of the delay in getting this started we have decided to open the contest the minute that Contestant #11 is eliminated most likely on Thursday March 24, 2011 and close entries the moment that the competition begins with 10 remaining contestants (most likely on 8:00pm EDT sharp on Tuesday March 29, 2011 or Wednesday March 30, 2011).


If you are new to these contests check out last year's competition thread HERE.  There you will find the rules and other particulars that will get you up to speed.  The only major difference in the structure of the competition this year (because we are starting so late compared to last year) is that you will already know who the top ten contestants are (in former years you had to choose them from the top 12) but that will make for an interesting slightly different challenge in some aspects.  Of course the goal remains the same - to try to figure out the correct order of finish and if you think that limits the competition be aware that there are well over 3 million unique combinations of ten names used once each (known as permutations to the mathematicians out there).


At this point I will turn this competition over to Yee-Ming who will organize the contest as he sees fit.  Once again I wish to express my appreciation to him for offering to oversee this very enjoyable contest.




Let the games begin!



Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image


RAF
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#2 of 93 OFFLINE   Yee-Ming

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Posted March 17 2011 - 06:34 PM

Well whaddya know, I'm well and truly on the spot now!  Heh... Posted Image


Many thanks Robert and Adam for still sorting out a prize, I was expecting to organise a challenge just for the fun of it.


For ease of reference, I've cut/paste the rules (as necessarily amended due to our late start this year), see below:-


The "Rules":

When the number of contestants is whittled down to 10 entries will officially open.
At that time you will be asked to submit a list of the order in which these top ten entrants will finish. Entries will close when the "Final 10" start to perform (at 8pm EDT on Wednesday March 30, 2011). Only ONE entry per member.

  • List your top ten in numerical order (1-10). Please use the names as listed on the roster below (when posted).
  • Your list must be unique. No duplicate lists allowed. For duplicate lists, first submission gets that list.
  • Once you submit a list, it is FINAL. No edited lists are allowed (unless your original list is invalid due to a mistake or a duplication.)
  • Scoring is as follows: You are assigned 1 point for each position that your prediction is away from the final position of each contestant. For example, if you predict a contestant to come in 3rd and he or she comes in 7th you get 4 points. If that contestant comes in 12th you get 9 points. A 2nd place finish gets you 1 point. And so forth.
  • [*] Lowest total points wins (with a score of 0 points being the best possible score.)
  • In the event of a tie the contest winner will be the entrant who was the fewest spots away from picking the winner. If it's still a tie, then we'll move down the list and determine who was closest to predicting the second spot, and so on, until the tie is eventually broken.
  • Members of the HTF staff and their significant others are eligible to participate, but only for glory and not for the prize package. All other members of the HTF community in good standing may enter and compete for the prize.

Entries close at 8:00p.m. EDT on Wednesday March 30, 2011. No exceptions please.

Here are a couple of words of explanation regarding this particular contest and the rationale behind the setup.

  • American Idol, as many of these reality shows, is known for its unpredictability so it is quite possible that an ousted "survivor" might return. This is quite possible, with the Judge's Save rule being in force, and having been used previously.  One season, two contestants were voted off the same night so instead of a "5th" and "6th" position we decided to assign two "5.5" positions for the purposes of scoring. That's why the rules clearly specify the "final" position of ouster for each contestant. It's not over until it's over, and who knows what twists this season will bring? And if there are unforeseen circumstances we will make a determination that will be fair to all entrants as much as possible. (Otherwise we will return your entry fee Posted Image ).

There are probably other things that we haven't thought of but we can deal with them as the show progresses. The one thing that I ask of all entrants (other than making sure that their list is unique) is that you follow the following format when submitting your entry:

01. Contestant
02. Contestant
03. Contestant
04. Contestant
05. Contestant
06. Contestant
07. Contestant
08. Contestant
09. Contestant
10. Contestant


--------------------------------------------------


Some specific caveats this year because I'm organising and not RAF as in years past:-


1. As is obvious from my "location", I don't live in the US; my timezone is 13 hrs ahead of EST, and AI is broadcast "the next day" at prime time here, in effect during the morning after each show has already been aired in the US.  So as not to spoil my enjoyment of the show (such as it is), I trust you will not begrudge allowing me to view the shows spoiler-free in my timezone, but this means I cannot compile results until the next day after I have viewed the results show Friday night my time.  Fridays being what they are, occasionally I may have a late evening out with the missus in which case I might not compile results until Saturday morning my time (Friday evening EST).


2. I am clueless with Excel.  I will try and modify Robert's older spreadsheets to see if I can get them to work, but if I can't, I'll simply compile results manually and post them.  It shouldn't take that much effort if we have about 20 participants, if last year's number is any guide.


3. I am not a moderator so I can't 'acknowledge' receipt of your predictions by editing your post to mark them as having been submitted (since I can't edit other members' posts).  What I'll do instead is keep a list of participants in the next post, which I will edit as we go along once entries have been recorded by me, by noting that the participant's entry has already been entered.


I think that covers it, but if there's anything I'm sure we can reach a consensus as to how to deal with unforeseen issues.  And if we can't, HTF moderators have the final say.


Added as at March 26, 2011 00:48 GMT+8 (a.k.a. EDT+12):-


At present we have a still Final 11 (because of the judge's save), who will all perform on March 30 and which will be reduced to 9 next week with 2 eliminations on the results show of March 31.  Unless there is a strong consensus otherwise, Robert's Choice #3 below in post #16 (which matches my earlier "prediction" in post #11) applies, i.e. select your Top 10 before March 30 8pm EDT, which leaves one unpicked contestant, and when two are eliminated on March 31 (as announced by Seacrest), both will be scored at 10.5, unless it is crystal clear one was bottom (scored as 11) and the other was second-bottom (scored as 10).  Entries with either 10 or 11 picks will be considered valid (I can fill in #11 by elimination) and recorded as such, but it is expected that #11 will simply be ignored if Robert's and my preference prevail.



#3 of 93 OFFLINE   Yee-Ming

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Posted March 17 2011 - 06:40 PM

Contestants as at March 25-30, 2011 alphabetically:-


Casey

Haley

Jacob

James

Lauren

Naima

Paul

Pia

Scotty

Stefano

Thia


----------------------------------------


Participants (as at closing):-


Yee Ming (entry submitted)

RAF (entry submitted)
NYSandy (entry submitted)

Carl Miller (entry submitted)

Elizabeth S (entry submitted)

gregstaten

TonyD (entry submitted)

Phil Taylor (entry submitted)

NolanJ (entry submitted)

Patrick Sun (entry submitted)

Dheiner (entry submitted)

Jeffrey_H (entry submitted)

Russel G (entry submitted)
pitchman (entry submitted)

Bryan X (entry submitted)

Aaron Silverman (entry submitted)

Lucy S (entry submitted)


Fifteen participants with entries submitted by closing!


#4 of 93 OFFLINE   Carl Miller

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Posted March 18 2011 - 06:21 AM

Yee-Ming, I'm in....and thank you for organizing this for us!


Carl

#5 of 93 OFFLINE   Elizabeth S

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Posted March 18 2011 - 07:16 AM

Thank you, Yee-Ming.  I will play.  Posted Image



#6 of 93 OFFLINE   gregstaten

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Posted March 18 2011 - 09:08 AM

I'm in as well. Thanks for helping out here!



#7 of 93 OFFLINE   RAF

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Posted March 18 2011 - 04:36 PM

I'll be in (RAF) as well as my "significant other, "NYSANDY"


Good luck all!


RAF
[Demented Video Dude since 1997]
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["PITA" since 1942]
CLICK HERE to visit My HT HTF Rules and Regulations

#8 of 93 OFFLINE   TonyD

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Posted March 19 2011 - 01:27 PM

oops. coming soon.
facebook.com/whotony

#9 of 93 OFFLINE   Phil Taylor

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Posted March 19 2011 - 08:00 PM

I'm in. I can't be as terrible as last year ... or the year before that ... or the year before that ..... ..... .... at least that's what I'm going to keep telling myself.


 

#10 of 93 OFFLINE   NolanJ

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Posted March 19 2011 - 08:00 PM

I'm in!



#11 of 93 OFFLINE   Yee-Ming

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Posted March 20 2011 - 06:11 PM

We have 9 participants so far.  Keep it coming folks!


Tony D, your "entry" is a bit early, entries open only when the Final 10 are actually known (which should be the end of this week), which is different from previous years when we predicted a Top 10 once the Final 12 was known.  So I'm disregarding your entry for now, in case Haley makes the Final 10, but if she does turn out to be the next one eliminated, I will assume you stand by your existing predictions; if she does make Final 10 you'll have to change your predictions.


As an aside, I think it unlikely that the save will be used so early, since the judges will want to 'save' the save for use closer to the Top 5, in case one of the favourites has a really bad week.  However, if it is in fact used this week, we'll still have a Final 11, but if past years are anything to go by, two will be eliminated the following week, creating a Final 9 with no Final 10 week in between.  If this really does happen, I then propose that we therefore predict a Top 10 at Final 11 stage, with one unpicked contestant.  This would probably be more consistent with past years where we picked Top 10 at Final 12, rather than truncate the competition by picking only a Top 9 out of the Final 9.



#12 of 93 OFFLINE   RAF

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Posted March 20 2011 - 06:59 PM

I had Ron Epstein put up a banner publicizing the contest and I assume that as soon as people find out that the winner will get a nice bundle of Blu-ray and other DVDs the number of entries will grow.

In the past the "Package" has had a retail value of somewhere in the neighborhood of $100 to $200 - depending upon what Adam Gregorich can get from the studios.)    Of course, the DVD package is nice but the real challenge and honor is to become the king (or queen) of the hill in achieving the lowest score.  

Keep up the good work, Yee Ming!


RAF
[Demented Video Dude since 1997]
[Computer Maven since 1956]
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#13 of 93 OFFLINE   Aaron Silverman

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Posted March 22 2011 - 05:33 AM

I'll play.  And I'll see if I can convince the Mrs. to come back and defend her title. :)



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#14 of 93 OFFLINE   NolanJ

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Posted March 24 2011 - 12:58 PM


01. Scotty 02. Lauren 03. James 04. Jacob 05. Pia 06. Casey 07. Paul 08. Thia 09. Haley 10. Naima 11. Stefano

#15 of 93 OFFLINE   Carl Miller

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Posted March 24 2011 - 01:39 PM

01.  Pia            
02.  James           
03.  Jacob                 
04.  Scotty                   
05.  Lauren             
06.  Paul            
07.  Thia              
08.  Naima               
09.  Casey                
10.  Stefano               
11.  Haley                     

Carl

#16 of 93 OFFLINE   RAF

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Posted March 24 2011 - 02:07 PM

Spoiler Alert **********************  If you haven't watched the results show yet then please don't read the rest of this message.  I'll unspoilerize it tomorrow morning (3/25/11)  Note: Spoiler removed the afternoon of 3/25/11


Yee-Ming, if by chance you are online you might want to read what I've written because we have to make a decision ASAP.  And for other members who will be submitting lists you might want to quickly watch the show and then read what I've written spoilerized.



O.K. Houston we have a problem here. Casey was saved with the one "save" that the judges can use this or in any season. I think that we have three choices to consider.


Choice #1: Everybody submits their TOP ELEVEN List in order (as NolanJ has already done) and we score the lists accordingly. Since they have already announced that TWO people will go home next week and since they don't usually spell out who was #11 and who was #10 that means that each of the contestants who is voted off next Thursday will receive a score of 10.5 (the average of 10 and 11). We have done it that way in the past - although it never occurred at such a dramatic moment. All the deadlines remain the same (no lists can be submitted after 8:00pm EDT on Wednesday 03/30/11).


Choice #2: We wait until next Thursday, 03/31/11 for entries to be submitted. At that time you submit a TOP NINE once the top nine contestants left has been identified. Entries would open at the conclusion of the results show on Thursday 03/31/11 and entries would close at 8:00pm EDT sharp on Wednesday 04/06/11 (assuming that they stay with the Wednesday and Thursday format. If for some reason they go to a Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday format then entries would close at 8:00pm EDT sharp on Tuesday 04/05/11.


Choice #3: We open the entries right now with everybody submitting a TOP TEN list from the current field of 11. Entries would close at 8:00pm EDT sharp on Wednesday 03/30/11 as the programming guide indicates that's when the next show begins to air. I will strongly lobby for Choice #3 because it's neat and clean and brings back a bit of the flavor of last year's contest when entries had to choose a TOP TEN from a field of 12. Choosing a TOP TEN from a field of 11 makes things a bit more challenging (this is a "challenge" after all) and everyone has the same handicap in this case. Interestingly, assuming the 10.5 scoring for the two contestants who leave next week would guarantee that there will be no Perfect Scores of "0" (not that we really expected such perfection. The record by Dheiner a few years ago remains at 9.0 and will be hard to beat.) We have to act fast on this because there are only five days from tomorrow until entries close. And remember that Yee-Ming is on the other side of the planet and will probably not see this until tomorrow. I would suggest that we anticipate that Choice #3 is the best format and in the spirit of that I would suggest that people start submitting their top ten NOW. If a list of 11 or a list of 9 is decided upon (mostly by Yee-Ming and myself although we will listen to suggestions from others) then those people who submitted their list of ten would be allowed to drop the bottom name from their list of 10 or add in the 11th contestant at the bottom of their list to create a list of 11. It sounds complicated but it really isn't. The only important thing here is not to draw this thing out beyond tomorrow because then things tend to get dicey. So for those of you who choose to read this spoilerized text right now and who want to submit a list of your TOP TEN now feel free to do this. Remember, no two lists submitted may be identical (for obvious reasons) and the first submitted list takes precedence. OK. Back to the show.


RAF
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#17 of 93 OFFLINE   RAF

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Posted March 24 2011 - 02:20 PM

01. Jacob

02. Pia

03. Scotty

04. Thia

05. Casey

06. Haley

07. James

08. Naima

09. Paul

10. Lauren


RAF
[Demented Video Dude since 1997]
[Computer Maven since 1956]
["PITA" since 1942]
CLICK HERE to visit My HT HTF Rules and Regulations

#18 of 93 OFFLINE   Phil Taylor

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Posted March 24 2011 - 02:20 PM

OK - here's my 10 -- from winner to loser


1. Jacob

2. James

3. Pia

4. Scotty

5. Lauren

6. Haley

7. Naima

8. Casey

9. Paul

10. Stephano


(11) Thia






 

#19 of 93 OFFLINE   NYSandy

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Posted March 24 2011 - 02:32 PM

01. Lauren

02. Stefano

03. Paul

04. Pia

05. Thia

06. Scotty

07. Jacob

08. James

09. Haley

10. Casey


(11) Naima



#20 of 93 OFFLINE   Patrick Sun

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Posted March 24 2011 - 02:39 PM

01. Lauren
02. James
03. Pia
04. Scotty
05. Jacob
06. Casey
07. Naima
08. Thia
09. Paul
10. Stefano
11. Haley



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