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The official 83rd Academy Awards Nomination and Predictions Thread


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#1 of 155 OFFLINE   Ronald Epstein

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Posted January 25 2011 - 01:07 AM


 

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#2 of 155 OFFLINE   TravisR

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Posted January 25 2011 - 01:09 AM

HOW COULD THEY LEAVE OFF... Just kidding. I like the nominations more than the awards because you get a nice array of quality movies rather than saying that X is better than Y.

#3 of 155 OFFLINE   Patrick Sun

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Posted January 25 2011 - 01:30 AM

Kind of a weak year in terms of performances and films. Julianne Moore got the short end of the stick (meaning, she did a lot of heavy lifting in "TKAAR" and probably just missed out on a best supporting actress nomination.  But that's the more competitive acting category, as I would be very surprised if Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, and Christian Bale did not win their categories. The main contest will be between "The Social Network" and "The King's Speech" for best picture, though I really hope Fincher gets the Directing oscar (not sure if Aronofsky has a shot this year, but I can't really see Hooper taking prize).  Poor Christopher Nolan, got the Oscar snub for directing. I think Sorkin is a shoo-in for his adapted screenplay for "The Social Network", while the race is closer for original screenplay between "The King's Speech" and "The Kids are All Right".  But was surprised to see no adapted screenplay nomination for "Black Swan" (I think it'd fall under adapted, but perhaps it would go towards original screenplay, but it wasn't going to beat "The Social Network" anyway). I'll be curious to see if Cinematography goes to Matthew Labatique for "Black Swan", or if Pfister or Deakins walks away with the oscar. Editing is a toss-up between "Black Swan" and "The Social Network".  But "The King's Speech" could sneak in there.  "Inception" got snubbed in this category, perhaps. While I think "Toy Story 3" gets best animated feature, "How to Train Your Dragon" was a better time at the movies for me. No love for Clint Mansell's work in "Black Swan", or Daft Punk in "Tron Legacy".  (I've since been informed that neither had enough original musical content to the scoring, so there you go.)
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#4 of 155 OFFLINE   Ronald Epstein

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Posted January 25 2011 - 01:41 AM

My interest lies in the BEST ACTRESS categories which is

sort of odd since I never have rooted for a particular actress

in the past.


I really didn't care much for Black Swan but I thought
Natalie Portman gave an outstanding performance for which

I hope she wins Best Actress.


I wasn't big on True Grit either, but Hailee Steinfeld was

remarkable.  Unfortunately, they usually don't give Oscars

to newcomers.


Loved The King's Speech, thought the honor should go

to Geoffrey Rush whose performance overshadowed that

of Colin Firth.


Best Picture?  It will go to The Social Network though
The Fighter and The King's Speech were marginally better,

in my opinion.


 

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#5 of 155 OFFLINE   Patrick Sun

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Posted January 25 2011 - 01:49 AM

The old guard of the academy love a film like "The King's Speech", which is what "The Social Network" has to overcome to win BP. As far as I'm concerned, "The Fighter" was an incomplete film, so it's in the lower half of the top 10 nominees.
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#6 of 155 OFFLINE   Adam Lenhardt

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Posted January 25 2011 - 02:01 AM

Judging by the way True Grit sprung forward, you've got to watch out for a sweep there.

#7 of 155 OFFLINE   Patrick Sun

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Posted January 25 2011 - 02:03 AM

I'd be truly shocked if "True Grit" got any of the major awards (acting, directing, BP, editing).
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#8 of 155 OFFLINE   Walter Kittel

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Posted January 25 2011 - 02:26 AM



 

I wasn't big on True Grit either, but Hailee Steinfeld was

remarkable.  Unfortunately, they usually don't give Oscars

to newcomers. 


Based purely on my recollection, I would suggest that Supporting Actress is one of the most generous categories with regards to first time nominees and may bode well for Hailee Steinfeld.  I have no statistics to back up that claim, just my impressions from watching the Awards through the years.  (Tatum O'Neal - Paper Moon, Marissa Tomei - My Cousin Vinny, Anna Paquin - The Piano, Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls; were all first time nominees who won the Award for their respective years.)


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#9 of 155 OFFLINE   Michael Elliott

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Posted January 25 2011 - 02:31 AM

There's nothing here horribly bad like last year but I do think it shows that 2010 was a fairly weak year. The fact that TRUE GRIT is getting all this attention to me is somewhat funny but a director's nod over Christopher Nolan and INCEPTION?  I didn't find INCEPTION to be the masterpiece that many did but its direction was certainly a lot more important factor than that in TRUE GRIT. The Supporting Actress does seem to be the big one.  No Mila Kunis.  No Moore.  The Supporting Actor race is also missing the likes of Timberlake and Douglas who many thought was going to get noms.  I don't mind Douglas missing out on WALL STREET as I thought his performance in SOLITARY MAN was a lot better.

#10 of 155 OFFLINE   Aaron Silverman

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Posted January 25 2011 - 02:50 AM

I have a lot of movie-watchin' to do. . .


(Not to mention someone just spoiled the end of Inception. :( :( :( )


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#11 of 155 OFFLINE   mattCR

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Posted January 25 2011 - 03:00 AM

Dissappointments: I admit, I didn't care for "The Fighter" nearly as much as the academy, and while I'm not surprised, just "eh".   It's good to see Michelle Williams nominated for her fantastic turn in "Blue Valentine", which I thought was sensational.  I have mixed feelings on how 10 nominated films will work out, just as I did last year.   I think it divides the vote and makes it easier for a film to win without a real overwhelming feeling of "this is it" which is maybe what they want.  On the plus side, while there is all this fury about The Social Network and The Kings Speech, I'd love to see the vote divided an an outsider win  ( I will root for the "has no chance, but will be the film longest remembered from this year, TS3") Despite my dismiss of "The Fighter", Christian Bale should walk with his category, he was fantastic.  How Mark Ruffalo got nominated over Justin Timberlake is crazy.. "The Kids are All Right" could get him a nod but not Moore?   I thought Ruffalo's character was basically scenery - he did a managable job, but the script wasn't really written to give him much, and he did what was there - which is what he should do.   But it wasn't the kind of performance that you waited for when he was onscreen.. Timberlake made the restaurant scenes in "The Social Network" some of the best moments, guiding the characters to conclusions in his strange world.  In fact, at the end, I was shocked and immediately went home to google to find out how much stock his real-life model owned in Facebook, etc. I don't know, just that.. Good to see the academy remember "Winter's Bone"...
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#12 of 155 OFFLINE   TravisR

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Posted January 25 2011 - 03:22 AM

Originally Posted by mattCR 

Dissappointments:


I admit, I didn't care for "The Fighter" nearly as much as the academy, and while I'm not surprised, just "eh".



That's sort of how I felt about The King's Speech. It's certainly a good movie and while it has great performances, I still don't think it's deserving of a BP win.



#13 of 155 OFFLINE   Steve Christou

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Posted January 25 2011 - 04:10 AM

I've seen 7 of the Best Film nominees and the only one I'm rooting for is Inception but without a director nod it hasn't got a chance.


I'm rooting for Jeff Bridges and Natalie Portman though I'm not a huge fan of either film.


It's good to see Tron Legacy get some recognition, not a great film but I did like the sound and the visuals.


Best animated film for me was How to Train Your Dragon but Pixar has a lock on that category. :)



Biggest upset was Chris Nolan being left out of the directing noms. Oh well.


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#14 of 155 OFFLINE   Chris Will

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Posted January 25 2011 - 04:18 AM

Isn't it kind of obvious that based on the directing noms, those are really the only true contenders for BP?  Should Directing be expanded as well?  Or, does this just point out how ridiculous 10 BP noms really is? Other then that, I think it is a decent list of noms in every category.  The only thing I disagree with is Inception getting a score nom.  I thought that score was one of Zimmer's most boring efforts to date, he really just seems to be going through the motions these days.  I know they were disqualified but, the scores to Black Swan or True Grit deserve to be there more then Inception IMO.  I guess Zimmer is the new John Williams, meaning he will get a nom every year he does a score, deserving or not. I know it probably will not win but, I think True Grit is the best movie of the year.

#15 of 155 OFFLINE   Steve Christou

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Posted January 25 2011 - 04:19 AM



Originally Posted by Michael Elliott 


The fact that TRUE GRIT is getting all this attention to me is somewhat funny but a director's nod over Christopher Nolan and INCEPTION?  I didn't find INCEPTION to be the masterpiece that many did but its direction was certainly a lot more important factor than that in TRUE GRIT.


Exactly what I was saying in another thread.


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#16 of 155 OFFLINE   Steve_Tk

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Posted January 25 2011 - 05:10 AM

At first glance I actually thought the title of this thread was "pretentious thread" instead of predictions.

#17 of 155 OFFLINE   Russell G

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Posted January 25 2011 - 05:21 AM

I'm disappointed that "Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World" got completely ignored in technical areas.  Most of the rest of the list is the usual "ho hum" for me. I'd be shocked too if "True Grit" got anything.  I really liked the movie, but there were some truly original movies this year that deserve it more.

#18 of 155 OFFLINE   Adam Lenhardt

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Posted January 25 2011 - 06:37 AM

Originally Posted by Michael Elliott 

The fact that TRUE GRIT is getting all this attention to me is somewhat funny but a director's nod over Christopher Nolan and INCEPTION?  I didn't find INCEPTION to be the masterpiece that many did but its direction was certainly a lot more important factor than that in TRUE GRIT.


While I agree that Nolan was robbed of a Best Directing nod, I think the Coens work on "True Grit" is underestimated. When you consider that both Portis's novel and the Coens' screenplay use a completely different pattern of speech than contemporary American English, it's amazing that they were able to get realistic and natural delivery and performances from the entire cast. The direction is less flashy than other works this year (or even others of their own films) but it, for the most part, does exactly what it needs to.

Originally Posted by Russell G 

I'm disappointed that "Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World" got completely ignored in technical areas.  Most of the rest of the list is the usual "ho hum" for me.

The visual effects and sound work were creative and well-rendered, but they didn't really break new ground. I think that's why "Scott Pilgrim" just barely missed the cut. The V/FX nominees each achieved something we've never seen before.

#19 of 155 OFFLINE   Dave B Ferris

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Posted January 25 2011 - 09:34 AM

I hope Banksy wins - could be the most interesting moment of the telecast!

#20 of 155 OFFLINE   Brandon Conway

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Posted January 25 2011 - 09:48 AM

True Grit won't win Best Picture because it was not nominated for Film Editing. The last Best Picture without a Film Editing nomination was Ordinary People in 1980. My list of "snubs": Christopher Nolan - Directing Daft Punk - Original Score Inception - Editing Shutter Island - Editing (and some others but I know it had no chance due to the February release) Ted Levine - Supporting Actor - Shutter Island (see above; if there was ever a one-scene performance that deserved a Supporting Acting nom, it was Ted Levine in the Jeep Scene in Shutter Island) Waiting for Superman - Feature Documentary Otherwise I think it's a good slate of nominees. Some early thoughts on who I think will win: Picture & Director  - Race is clearly between The Social Network and The King's Speech, with the latter gaining traction as time goes on. Same with Director (Fincher and Hooper). I can see a split there - Fincher w/ Director, King's Speech w/ Picture. Other nominees need not apply Acting awards  - They're getting more and more predictable every year. Firth/Portman/Bale/Leo are the clear favorites. However, I could see Bening getting Actress since she's "due" and has been overlooked before. I also think Supporting Actress is more of a two-way race between Leo and Steinfeld (the Academy loves to reward young first-nominee actresses in the Supporting Actress category). This makes me wonder - when was the last legitimate major upset in an acting category? Adrien Brody for The Pianist in 2002? It's been a while, and it's starting to get a bit boring because of it. Screenplays - The King's Speech and The Social Network. Major, major upset if either of these do not win. Cinematography - I think Deakins finally gets his Oscar for True Grit. However, if King's Speech or Social Network start sweeping, look out. Film Editing - 127 Hours deserves it the most of the nominees, but it won't win. Social Network / King's Speech, sweep dependent. Art Direction - Probably King's Speech. Academy loves period pieces in this category. Costume Design - See above. Makeup - Eh, toss up. Score - The Social Network. Unless King's Speech sweeps. Maybe Zimmer since the music of Inception is so integral to the story. Song - Another toss-up. Sound Editing - TRON: Legacy should win, but it won't. Probably Inception. Sound Mixing - Whichever is sweeping - Social Network or King's Speech Visual Effects - Inception Documentary Feature - Exit Through the Gift Shop Short categories - No one ever knows. Day and Night was excellent, though. Foreign Language Film - Biutiful has the edge over Dogtooth. But since those who vote must see all the films, one never knows. Animated Feature - A closer race than probably suspected, but Toy Story 3 will win.

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