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Should we worry?


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199 replies to this topic

#1 of 200 OFFLINE   Bryan^H

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Posted December 30 2008 - 11:54 AM

Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony! | Storage Bits | ZDNet.com

It's from October, but I found that piece a little unsettling.

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#2 of 200 OFFLINE   Brandon Conway

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Posted December 30 2008 - 12:17 PM

The article is, IMO, bunk. Sales paces are beyond DVD in the timeline, and the Holiday sales point to a rather good success, even despite the economy.

We'll know more with CES in a few days, but I see the outlook as rather positive, all things considered.

"And now the reprimand, from an American critic. He reproaches me for using film as a sacred & lasting medium, like a painting or a book. He does not believe that filmmaking is an inferior art, but he believes, and quite rightly, that a reel goes quickly, that the public are looking above all for relaxation, that film is fragile and that it is pretentious to express the power of one's soul by such ephemeral and delicate means, that Charlie Chaplin's or Buster Keaton's first films can only be seen on very rare and badly spoiled prints. I add that the cinema is making daily progress and that eventually films that we consider marvelous today will soon be forgotten because of new dimensions & colour. This is true. But for 4 weeks this film [The Blood of a Poet] has been shown to audiences that have been so attentive, so eager & so warm, that I wonder after all there is not an anonymous public who are looking for more than relaxation in the cinema." - Jean Cocteau, 1932


#3 of 200 OFFLINE   CraigF

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Posted December 30 2008 - 12:24 PM

Sure the article may be (is!) bunk.

But a caveat: you ought to look at DVD adoption rates. It was far higher/faster and has greater penetration than any major consumer entertainment device going back to at least the B&W TV. Yes, DVD player penetration even surpassed that of CD-only players by a significant amount. So comparing with DVD is not exactly the best example, if you want to show the success of BD at this point.

#4 of 200 OFFLINE   Scott-S

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Posted December 30 2008 - 01:10 PM

I would let the data speak for itself. Not some angry HD-DVD supporter.

The December market share of Blu-Ray versus DVD was 14%
Blu-ray.com - Over $60M Spent on Blu-ray Last Week

The number 1 selling movie on Amazon for the last month has been a Blu-Ray disc. (Dark Night)

Concidering this is the first year, Blu is doing great. Don't let sour the sour grapes folks get you down.

My only worry is that if a lie is repeated often enough, people start to believe it (mis-quote from Babylon 5 Posted Image )
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#5 of 200 OFFLINE   Douglas Monce

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Posted December 30 2008 - 01:18 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott-S

Concidering this is the first year, Blu is doing great. Don't let sour the sour grapes folks get you down.


First year for what?
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#6 of 200 OFFLINE   TravisR

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Posted December 30 2008 - 02:10 PM

No.

#7 of 200 OFFLINE   Scott-S

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Posted December 30 2008 - 02:43 PM

First year of Blu-Ray sales, post format war.
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#8 of 200 OFFLINE   Bryan^H

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Posted December 30 2008 - 03:15 PM

I read in another post that for every Dark Knight, or Iron Man that does great, many other releases will never recoup their production cost. Those "other" releases are the majority.
And there is one valid point to this: Price.
Lets face it Blu-Ray discs are not cheap. Times are troublesome, and even I'm picking my titles carefully these days. This can hurt sales even more.
I'm not playing chicken little here. Given Sony's massive financial woes, I am a bit worried.

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#9 of 200 OFFLINE   Travis Brashear

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Posted December 30 2008 - 03:47 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by CraigF
So comparing with DVD is not exactly the best example, if you want to show the success of BD at this point.

When Blu-ray is equalling, or even surpassing, DVD's adoption numbers? Why would that be a bad example???
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#10 of 200 OFFLINE   Scott-S

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Posted December 30 2008 - 04:09 PM

LOL, this thread, like the others that came before, is turning into the same old stuff.

Everything said here was said many times before whenever someone says that Blu-ray is failing.

I am just as guilty. Posted Image

Look, it is just too early to tell. The studios obviously don't feel like Blu is doomed. They are pumping out titles faster than I ever dreamed they would. I wouldnt think they would be doing this if they were not making money.
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#11 of 200 OFFLINE   JonZ

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Posted December 30 2008 - 05:14 PM

I went to pick up Kung Fu Panda and JFK on saturday and have to say I was suprised how many blurays were on the shelves at Best Buy. The shelves were packed.

I almost didnt go because I figured their stock would be low right after Xmas.

Glad I did.

#12 of 200 OFFLINE   troy evans

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Posted December 30 2008 - 07:11 PM

I read this artical before. This artical was posted back durning the end of summer. The date on the artical has changed, but, the content remains the same. When this artical was posted before I particularly made note of the "smoking dope" line. That's not something a respectable reporter says. Like Scott-S said, we're rehashing months old arguments. Blu-ray is doing damn well.
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#13 of 200 OFFLINE   CraigF

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Posted December 30 2008 - 07:20 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Brashear
When Blu-ray is equalling, or even surpassing, DVD's adoption numbers? Why would that be a bad example???

Well, those numbers are all over the place as reported, depending by who and where. So we *don't really know*, because we don't believe everything posted on the web/newspapers/etc. since they are usually trite little bites for easy consumption with few pertinent facts as to the raw data.

What I meant was, JIC it's not as good as the most optimistic numbers suggest right now, comparing with DVD is not the greatest comparison because I doubt many people will say color TV, CD, cassette, VHS etc. were "failures" and they weren't adopted nearly as quickly as DVD (as measured on a timeline by % household penetration in the U.S.). IOW *speed* of adoption can't be directly tied to "success".

So I'm not worried, some things just take longer to catch on. In the case of BD, it could reasonally be expected to lag penetration by HDTV, and that is not even 25% in the U.S. yet based on Oct./08 numbers (if we believe they're in the ballpark).

#14 of 200 OFFLINE   RickER

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Posted December 30 2008 - 07:32 PM

I was in Best Buy the other day, and i was NOT alone in looking at Blu-ray discs. I didnt buy anything, but others were.

I am not worried.

#15 of 200 OFFLINE   Edwin-S

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Posted December 30 2008 - 08:44 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryan^H
I read in another post that for every Dark Knight, or Iron Man that does great, many other releases will never recoup their production cost. Those "other" releases are the majority.

The same argument could be applied to DVD. I doubt the majority of DVDs released recover their production costs either, even with their lower price point.
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#16 of 200 OFFLINE   Southpaw

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Posted December 31 2008 - 01:03 AM

If there was one thing that Ron, myself and others who attended the HTF Hollywood event learned, it was that studios are behind Blu-ray 100%+. It's not going anywhere any time soon. Tons and tons of effort, manpower and dollars are being used and spent every day to ensure the format succeeds.
I have no worries.

#17 of 200 OFFLINE   Paul Arnette

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Posted December 31 2008 - 02:30 AM

Don't worry, be happy.

Posted Image
Universal Blu-ray Discs I will not be buying while they're offered only as Blu-ray + DVD 'flipper' discs:

The Jackal
, Out of Africa, and Traffic.

#18 of 200 OFFLINE   Loregnum

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Posted December 31 2008 - 02:30 AM

Anyone who says blu-ray is dead is well, insane.

Obviously it won't take off like DVD did but nobody should expect that since lu-ray requires an HD display and many people are just generally content with DVD regardless if they can get better. Still, that doesn't mean the format is a failure or is going to die.

Catalog titles on blu are obviously not going to sell that great since they cost more and many have no desire to upgrade their DVD copies but new movie sales on blu clearly show there is a good demand for the product.

If people want to compare blu says they should be doing only so on new titles and not factoring in catalog sales.

#19 of 200 OFFLINE   Rolando

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Posted December 31 2008 - 03:32 AM

Great point about catalog sales.

I have no doubt BD will be around for a while. I would be ok with niche but I know it will definitely go mainstream. might be 3-4 years rather than next year but it will be around under one form or another.
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#20 of 200 OFFLINE   frankie108

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Posted December 31 2008 - 04:32 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryan^H
I read in another post that for every Dark Knight, or Iron Man that does great, many other releases will never recoup their production cost. Those "other" releases are the majority.
And there is one valid point to this: Price.
Lets face it Blu-Ray discs are not cheap. Times are troublesome, and even I'm picking my titles carefully these days. This can hurt sales even more.
I'm not playing chicken little here. Given Sony's massive financial woes, I am a bit worried.
Don't let yourself get into a tizzy worrying about such matters.
I mean, really...what's the worst case scenario; that Hollywood abandons Blu-ray??? Well, if they do, it's because another and better form of HD technology has simply displaced it. That doesn't sound too bad does it especially if it means more titles and cheaper prices for the same goods???


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