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More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge


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#1 of 337 OFFLINE   Mark Talmadge

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Posted May 15 2008 - 03:26 PM

Thought I'd pass this along, which could explain why there haven't been a lot of titles coming out since Blu Ray won the battle.

Quote:
Don't freak out, you're not experiencing any weird case of déjà vu -- reports are simply continuing to come out that suggest that Blu-ray adoption isn't taking off. The newest of the bunch comes to us from Harris Interactive, which surveyed upwards of 2,500 individuals in mid-April. Results showed that 87% of those polled owned a DVD player, but just 4% owned a dedicated Blu-ray deck while 5% owned a PlayStation 3. Comically enough, 6% claimed that they had an HD DVD player, while another 1% owned an Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on. Most notably, just 9% of respondents stated that they were "likely" to purchase a BD player within the next year, even when made fully aware that BD was the victor in the now-concluded format war. Of course, just 35% of those polled owned an HDTV, which is certainly worth considering, but even analysts at Harris agreed that getting BD player prices well below $300 was necessary for adoption to surge. Hit the read link for lots more stats.


More research asserts that Blu-ray adoption isn't apt to surge soon - Engadget HD

#2 of 337 OFFLINE   RickER

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Posted May 15 2008 - 03:44 PM

Course none of it would have anything to do with the fact that it is summer, and people dont buy many "indoor" toys this time of year. Also, the fact that once again, because its summer, and that means its time for gas prices to surge out of control. That wouldnt have anything to do with it either. Posted Image

All old news, talked about in a few other threads. Doesnt mean Blu is dead. But i see enough titles coming out later this summer to keep me poor! Posted Image

#3 of 337 OFFLINE   TravisR

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Posted May 15 2008 - 03:59 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by RickER
But i see enough titles coming out later this summer to keep me poor! Posted Image
Same here. Everyone would love the BIG titles to come out but I'm reasonably happy and reasonably poor with new releases on Blu Ray and what I'd consider some fairly decent second tier catalog titles.

Quite frankly, I still don't care if Blu Ray catches on with the public like DVD did.

#4 of 337 OFFLINE   MatthewA

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Posted May 15 2008 - 05:22 PM

Would it be better for the overall quality of the discs if it remained a large niche? No MAR jobs, no excessive DVNR, no sub-EPK extras. Unfortunately, it would prevent a lot of worthy titles from getting released.

Enough is enough, Disney. No more evasions or excuses. We DEMAND the release Song of the South on Blu-ray along with the uncut version of Bedknobs and Broomsticks on Blu-ray. I will not support anything your company produces until then.


#5 of 337 OFFLINE   Danny_N

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Posted May 15 2008 - 06:49 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by MatthewA
Would it be better for the overall quality of the discs if it remained a large niche? No MAR jobs, no excessive DVNR, no sub-EPK extras. Unfortunately, it would prevent a lot of worthy titles from getting released.

Depends on the people who make up that large niche. If I look at all the complaints about a little grain in a movie, I'd say that the current niche is not averse to excessive DVNR.

I doubt BD will ever overtake DVD but I'd like to see it grow to the point that releasing classic movies will be profitable for studios and that smaller companies like Criterion and Blue Underground can release their catalogue and make a profit. Otherwise we might be stuck with a format on which only last year's hit from Hollywood that looks like a video game gets a release and that does not interest me at all.

#6 of 337 OFFLINE   troy evans

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Posted May 15 2008 - 07:05 PM

So, when you combine the Blu-ray player and PS3 you get about 10% of 2500 surveyed? That's about right at this stage and not too bad really. 250 out of 2500 want or own a player and if we multiply that number it gets even better. The survey, the way I read it, is in Blu's favor. I don't even think dvd had this penitration when it was launched and I heard all the same surveys then as I do now. Blu-ray is here to stay and only going to grow stronger as everything makes it's move to Hi-Def.
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#7 of 337 OFFLINE   troy evans

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Posted May 15 2008 - 07:07 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny_N
Depends on the people who make up that large niche. If I look at all the complaints about a little grain in a movie, I'd say that the current niche is not averse to excessive DVNR.

I doubt BD will ever overtake DVD but I'd like to see it grow to the point that releasing classic movies will be profitable for studios and that smaller companies like Criterion and Blue Underground can release their catalogue and make a profit. Otherwise we might be stuck with a format on which only last year's hit from Hollywood that looks like a video game gets a release and that does not interest me at all.
Criterion and Blue Underground ARE releasing titles to Blu-ray this year. Check it out: Blue Underground Launches Blu-ray Support | High-Def Digest
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#8 of 337 OFFLINE   Danny_N

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Posted May 15 2008 - 08:43 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by troy evans
Criterion and Blue Underground ARE releasing titles to Blu-ray this year. Check it out: Blue Underground Launches Blu-ray Support | High-Def Digest

I know that, but will they sell enough copies of their releases to make it profitable for them? I don't want this to be a one time appearance of these companies on BD.

#9 of 337 OFFLINE   Ronald Epstein

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Posted May 15 2008 - 10:18 PM

Bottom line....

These BR players and software need to come down in price if you want
to entice the common consumer into purchase.

Now that the format war is over there seems to be no incentive
for many of the major companies to drop prices.

Ronald J Epstein
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#10 of 337 OFFLINE   Robert Crawford

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Posted May 15 2008 - 10:38 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronald Epstein
Bottom line....

These BR players and software need to come down in price if you want
to entice the common consumer into purchase.

Now that the format war is over there seems to be no incentive
for many of the major companies to drop prices.
There is an incentive, but the economic state including the devalue of the dollar has played a part in this pricing issue. The real test will come this Fall and holiday season.

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#11 of 337 OFFLINE   PaulDA

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Posted May 16 2008 - 12:05 AM

Don't underestimate the effect of the devalued dollar (essentially a form of inflation) on pricing. A dropping dollar and soaring oil prices do not make for a good combination for items with large quantities of plastic in them. It is not the only reason, of course, but it is a factor.
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#12 of 337 OFFLINE   Travis Brashear

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Posted May 16 2008 - 12:08 AM

Did anyone else get hung up on this line: "Of course, just 35% of those polled owned an HDTV"? Well, who gives a rip about the other 65%?! How is Blu-ray gonna take off with non-HD consumers? Hey, here's another factoid for ya--out of 2,500 people surveyed, only 10% were interested in funding advanced space research; of course, 2,250 of the people surveyed were members of the ancient Umbutu tribe of darkest East Africa, so that's worth considering. This means that only 875 members of this polling pool are even viable candidates right now (the others can be shunted off to a "More Research Asserts that HDTV Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge" article). So now we're talking about 9% of 875, with that number likely to jump up by at least 4%-5% in short order since it's clear than many HD-DVD owners are actively prepared to go Blu any moment now. I think those are swell numbers at this stage of the game. I still think 2009 (the year entire) will be the true measuring stick of what the future will hold re: the level of success for Blu-ray. For now, I'm with many of the rest of you--hell, I'm spending over $200 on Blu-ray titles just next Tuesday alone.
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#13 of 337 OFFLINE   Robert Crawford

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Posted May 16 2008 - 12:41 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulDA
Don't underestimate the effect of the devalued dollar (essentially a form of inflation) on pricing. A dropping dollar and soaring oil prices do not make for a good combination for items with large quantities of plastic in them. It is not the only reason, of course, but it is a factor.
It is becoming a large factor with HT equipment that is mostly imported and the effects of the dropping dollar and soaring oil prices is affecting everything from groceries to vehicle purchases.

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#14 of 337 OFFLINE   Marc Colella

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Posted May 16 2008 - 02:07 AM

While the economy does play a factor in sales of many things, I don't think we can use this as a major factor in the slow adoption of Blu-Ray.

Many entertainment products are still selling well - even if they've dropped off a bit. The Wii is still selling great, GTA IV sold in monsterous numbers, HDTVs are selling very well also, etc.

At first many were saying the format war was killing the adoption rate because there were many fence-sitters. I always disagreed with that. Now that the war is over and sales are barely moving upwards, we use the economy as the excuse. What we're actually seeing is that Blu-Ray is and will continue to be a niche product. The majority of people are happy with DVD. Even price drops will only help so much.

#15 of 337 OFFLINE   Jesse Blacklow

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Posted May 16 2008 - 02:39 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronald Epstein
Now that the format war is over there seems to be no incentive
for many of the major companies to drop prices.
Because of course this historically being the slowest time of the year for electronics and media sales has nothing to do with it...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Colella
Many entertainment products are still selling well - even if they've dropped off a bit. The Wii is still selling great, GTA IV sold in monsterous numbers, HDTVs are selling very well also, etc.
Wrong.

Perhaps you haven't read reports from NPD and Nielsen, but all of the consoles experienced a drop-off. On the other hand, the PS3 has managed to outsell the 360 several times, and in terms of software, is doing a good job of keeping up when hardware ratios are taken into account. Yes GTAIV sold great, but it was expected to. I'd love to see your evidence of HDTV sales growing, as well.
Quote:
At first many were saying the format war was killing the adoption rate because there were many fence-sitters. I always disagreed with that. Now that the war is over and sales are barely moving upwards, we use the economy as the excuse. What we're actually seeing is that Blu-Ray is and will continue to be a niche product. The majority of people are happy with DVD. Even price drops will only help so much.
As mentioned above, this is generally one of the slowest times of the year for electronics and media sales, and this has been borne out in console sales, player sales, and disc sales for both DVD and Blu-ray.

Saying that something is failing without providing context--especially when that context explicitly says that everything else is experiencing a bit of a slowdown--strikes me as a little bit disingenuous.
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#16 of 337 OFFLINE   Patrick_S

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Posted May 16 2008 - 03:38 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jesse Blacklow
On the other hand, the PS3 has managed to outsell the 360 several times...
That's wrong according to the NPD numbers I've seen. The PS3 has managed to outsell the 360 just twice and has lost the last two months.

#17 of 337 OFFLINE   Maxpower1987

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Posted May 16 2008 - 03:39 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Crawford
It is becoming a large factor with HT equipment that is mostly imported and the effects of the dropping dollar and soaring oil prices is affecting everything from groceries to vehicle purchases.

Indeed, HT is going to suffer more than other areas in the US as so many companies are based in Japan (Sony, Pioneer, Panasonic etc...) and the Yen's rise against the USD is causing a lot of these companies to raise retail pricing. I know for a fact that the Panasonic BD50 was going to launch at a much more reasonable price in the US, but the need to keep investors in Japan happy meant that a higher price was slapped on at the last minute.

I think it will be a miracle if Sony's two players the S350 and S550 launch at their given prices, no doubt that Sony will have factored in the weakening of the USD, but I doubt they figured it would be by this much.


#18 of 337 OFFLINE   Maxpower1987

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Posted May 16 2008 - 03:42 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick_S
That's wrong according to the NPD numbers I've seen. The PS3 has managed to outsell the 360 just twice and has lost the last two months.

If you take each month as a seperate entity, then sure they are both even, but put them all together, and it paints a (slightly) different picture, the PS3 is ahead buy around 50,000 units. It's not really a very big deal, 50,000 is pretty poor compared to how badly they are both being beat by the Wii.

#19 of 337 OFFLINE   Goko

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Posted May 16 2008 - 03:58 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by TravisR
Same here. Everyone would love the BIG titles to come out but I'm reasonably happy and reasonably poor with new releases on Blu Ray and what I'd consider some fairly decent second tier catalog titles.

Quite frankly, I still don't care if Blu Ray catches on with the public like DVD did.
You should care. Mass adoption equals lower prices and more titles. It's as simple as that.

#20 of 337 OFFLINE   Patrick_S

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Posted May 16 2008 - 05:17 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxpower1987
[size=2] If you take each month as a seperate entity, then sure they are both even, but put them all together, and it paints a (slightly) different picture, the PS3 is ahead buy around 50,000 units.
I was just responding to correct an incorrect statement.

I guess the only fair comparison would be to look at total units sold while both were on the market but I'm not going to go back and look at all of those numbers. Considering the last holiday season numbers I would guess that the 360 has outsold PS3 in head to head competition but I could be wrong.

I think it is probably safe to say that the PS3 people are a little troubled to see the PS3 once again trending behind the 360. Considering all things they probably expected the PS3 to out sell the 360 each and every month.

As for the original topic about Blu-Ray sales, hardware sales will ebb and follow during the year but I figure there should be a nice increase during the holiday season just as you would expect.


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