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Universal VP predicts Blu-ray sales lead to continue


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#1 of 39 BrettB

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Posted April 20 2007 - 05:41 AM

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Quote:
Ken Graffeo, Universal executive VP of marketing and head of high-definition, said that until the fourth quarter, Blu-ray is likely to continue its sales lead, though HD DVD will still to grow. Consumer electronic sales are slow outside of the holiday season, and the summer’s blockbuster sequels will reach disc then, helping to drive new sales.

“Fourth quarter is really going to be a telling time,” he said.

also...

Quote:
Warner has grabbed an exaggerated share of the high-def market by releasing movies in both formats.

“We’ve been asked, doesn’t it cost more to produce in both formats, which is so much the wrong question,” Warner president Ron Sanders said. “If we were only releasing in Blu-ray, you would just off the top take 30% to 40% of revenue out of the titles. For us, it’s paying off nicely.”

Apparently Warner Blu-ray titles are outpacing the HD DVD version by as much as 2:1 matching the year-long* trend since Jan. 2007* indicated by the Neilsen numbers.

Edited for accuracy.

#2 of 39 ppltd

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Posted April 20 2007 - 08:05 AM

The only point I see here is that if you want to increase revenue, release in both formats. Now that was hard to figure out.
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#3 of 39 Dave H

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Posted April 20 2007 - 08:11 AM

It will be interesting to see if Universal changes their current stance next year.

#4 of 39 ppltd

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Posted April 20 2007 - 08:21 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave H
It will be interesting to see if Universal changes their current stance next year.
As it will be interesting if Fox and Disney change theirs.
Thomas Eisenmann(Last updated 09/30/11)

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#5 of 39 Shane Martin

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Posted April 20 2007 - 09:34 AM

Going on Thomas's post, I wonder how this Walmart deal will affect studio loyalty.

#6 of 39 Steve Schaffer

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Posted April 20 2007 - 09:42 AM

WalMart sells more Disney stuff than Disney does, it's profits are more than than the GDP of some countries. They've come down firmly on the side of HD DVD with their order for 2 million players. Cheap Chinese players were the impetus behind dvd overtaking VHS, HD-DVD is a lot cheaper to replicate than BD and all the features work NOW, having been finalized before the format was released, a much better strategy than selling $1k players that will be obsolete after BD Java is finalized in October.
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#7 of 39 Tim Glover

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Posted April 21 2007 - 05:00 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave H
It will be interesting to see if Universal changes their current stance next year.

I don't think many HD DVD backers doubt at some point, possible early 2008, Universal could go neutral. Just way too much revenue to throw away. I also think that's the same situation for other exclusive studios too. There does seem to be alot of $$ not being taken in from both camps...Time will tell.

Thanks for the link Brett. If anyone ever needs to get the latest scoop on HD DVD, Brett B is your man. Posted Image Posted Image

#8 of 39 John Berggren

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Posted April 22 2007 - 01:28 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Glover
I don't think many HD DVD backers doubt at some point, possible early 2008, Universal could go neutral. Just way too much revenue to throw away. I also think that's the same situation for other exclusive studios too. There does seem to be alot of $$ not being taken in from both camps...Time will tell.

Thanks for the link Brett. If anyone ever needs to get the latest scoop on HD DVD, Brett B is your man. Posted Image Posted Image

When Universal goes neutral, the war is over.
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#9 of 39 Darren Pillans

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Posted April 22 2007 - 02:42 AM

Forgive my ignorance, but why doesn't Universal support Blu-Ray?

Do they have a vested interest in Toshiba? Or is there another reason?

I feel they're the only thing keeping the format war alive, and it's not helping anyone.

The sooner it's over, the sooner all of us can enjoy Hi-Def DVD.

I'm finding it really difficult to resist Blu-Ray, but I will until there is one definite format.

#10 of 39 Dave H

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Posted April 22 2007 - 02:46 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by ppltd
As it will be interesting if Fox and Disney change theirs.

Given Fox's very strict views with copy protection (supposedly BD+ being created for them), I would doubt they'd support HD DVD. Disney would be more open to HD DVD IMO.

#11 of 39 Dave H

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Posted April 22 2007 - 02:51 AM

What got me most about Graffeo's comments is he didn't sound real confident in HD DVD by saying, “Fourth quarter is really going to be a telling time."

#12 of 39 JackKay

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Posted April 22 2007 - 03:15 AM

It's starting to look as if the main front of this format war is moving to the Hardware side rather than the Software. We all bought players despite Studio's taking sides or going neutral. There's plenty of Software out there for both. I always liked the Blu-ray specs better than HD-DVD's, but then Bill Gates said plug this into the 360 for $199 and start watching High Def movies NOW!
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#13 of 39 Edwin-S

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Posted April 22 2007 - 03:52 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by JackKay
I always liked the Blu-ray specs better than HD-DVD's, but then Bill Gates said plug this into the 360 for $199 and start watching High Def movies NOW!

HD DVD backers like to downplay the impact of the PS3 on the format war. In fact, they like to continually state that a couple of million PS3s are a completely inconsequential factor when it comes to the adoption of single HD movie format. If that is the case then a few hundred thousand HD DVD drives for the XBOX360 are below inconsequential, regardess of price.

It is interesting that Graffeo is predicting that Blu-ray will continue to outsell HD DVD until at least the fourth quarter. When would Wal-Mart's Chinese junk HD DVD players start arriving on store shelves? Around and about the fourth quarter of this year?
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#14 of 39 JackKay

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Posted April 22 2007 - 04:30 AM

I didn't mean to down play PS3's impact. I was trying to make the point that Studio exclusivity will have less an influence than awash of inexpensive HD-DVD players this Holiday Season.

Dosen't Sony have PS3 factories in China?
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#15 of 39 Vincent_P

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Posted April 22 2007 - 04:55 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Edwin-S
HD DVD backers like to downplay the impact of the PS3 on the format war. In fact, they like to continually state that a couple of million PS3s are a completely inconsequential factor when it comes to the adoption of single HD movie format. If that is the case then a few hundred thousand HD DVD drives for the XBOX360 are below inconsequential, regardess of price...

The difference, Edwin, is that the HD-DVD add-on would have been specifically purchased for the purpose of viewing HD-DVDs, whereas most PS3s were bought as gaming consoles, not to watch Blu-ray discs.

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#16 of 39 Edwin-S

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Posted April 22 2007 - 04:57 AM

Whoops! My post wasn't meant to be a comment about your viewpoint or lack of viewpoint on the impact of the PS3. The post was directed more towards the impact or lack of impact on the format war by the XBOX360 add-on drive.

You are correct. PS3 is entirely built in China, but there is a difference between a no-name Chinese branded item and an item made in China under strict quality controls. Corners are being cut somewhere if a player sells for 100 bucks. There is no way that a 200 dollar player is going to have the same build quality as a more expensive player. I still believe, in general, that you get what you pay for.
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#17 of 39 ppltd

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Posted April 22 2007 - 05:04 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Edwin-S
There is no way that a 200 dollar player is going to have the same build quality as a more expensive player. I still believe, in general, that you get what you pay for.
While you are of course right is you get what you pay for, that does not play a part in the average buyer decision when purchasing a Walmart Apex DVD players because they are 29.00 dollars, not the 200.00 dollars of a quality unit. Cheap HD players, in either format, will sell very well, especially since they are backward compatible.
Thomas Eisenmann(Last updated 09/30/11)

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#18 of 39 Paul_Scott

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Posted April 22 2007 - 05:23 AM

on the one hand I think HD DVD supporters are going to be disappointed when it becomes apparent that the majority of people just don't care about the extra percentile of resolved a/v detail this stuff offers- regardless of how cheap the hardware gets- in other words I expect the players to by and large stagnate on the shelves
But then, forget about the 'masses'- think about all those PS3 owners, who have come to appreciate HD content. The ones that don't have a 360 and its add-on, will now be able to go format neutral for almost pocket change.
Assuming BD-J+ or whatever it is, is still in need of work by the time these cheaper players are on the shelves, there might still be some 'big' titles that are still only on HD DVD that might prompt the BD supporter to pick up the cheap player as an adjunct.

I think given that there is, relatively speaking, little profit to be made in HD discs at this point on either side- that there isn't going to be a big pull by either sides exclusive studios to go anywhere else just yet.
I think the bigger pull will be for more enthusiasts to go format neutral, and disavow the fanboy mentality.

#19 of 39 Sanjay Gupta

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Posted April 22 2007 - 05:41 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darren Pillans
Forgive my ignorance, but why doesn't Universal support Blu-Ray?

Do they have a vested interest in Toshiba? Or is there another reason?

I feel they're the only thing keeping the format war alive, and it's not helping anyone.

The sooner it's over, the sooner all of us can enjoy Hi-Def DVD.

I'm finding it really difficult to resist Blu-Ray, but I will until there is one definite format.
I too have wondered all along as to what could be the reasons for Universal to be the only major studio to be HD-DVD exclusive, specially considering that even Warner, which has a vested interest in the success of HD-DVD, is releasing to both formats. Ofcourse that is leaving aside my theory regarding Warner that they are HD-DVDs 'Trojan Horse'. In fact all the studios have at some time or the other made their reasons known for their choice of format except for Unviersal. Why do they not at least give a reason for their choosing to be HD-DVD exclusive. Anyhow, the fact remains that Universal is the studio that is single handedly keeping the format war alive.
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#20 of 39 JackKay

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Posted April 22 2007 - 08:47 AM

Like I said before, I think the format war's main front is now Hardware not Software. All of us made a format choice despite any Studio's exclusivity or neutrality. IMHO Sony Pictures will stay exclusive, for obvious reasons, the longest. I don't know why Universal is sticking to HD-DVD, but I would bet they will through the rest of the year to see what influence Walmart brings. Disney and/or Fox will go neutral first as they both hate to leave money on the table.
"I believe in censorship. After all, I made a fortune out of it." -Mae West


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