After reading this news I was surprised I couldn't find a thread about this story. What's up? Everyone in shock? You know Universal is thinking the same thing.
Different DreamWorkses - Katzenberg, I believe, runs DreamWorks animation, which was spun off from DreamWorks SKG (which Paramount purchased), and DWA has no current HD plans.
I suspect he may be right, but only because direct downloading is likely to take hold and render these disc formats irrelevant before they have a chance to fledge.
I agree with him, and I don't really think it's a bad thing. LD was a niche market, and it did alright. I have no problem with HD/BD being the next LD. If it is, it'll have a long, productive life-span. I'm more worried about what the next format will be, particularly if it takes the form of downloadable content, which is what Katzenberg argues. While it won't happen anytime soon (which guarantees BD/HD a long life-span once they carve their niche), there's no doubt that the technology will be there in about 5-7 years. One thing BD/HD have in their favors in the comparison to LD is that they were released 9 years after DVD (kind of hard to believe isn't it?), whereas LD was released a mere two or three years after VHS/Beta (if I have my history correct).
So, given all that, I'd say BD/HD will be at least as succesful as LD, if not more so, which is not a bad thing at all.
I know it's still early but it is kind of puzzling how much mainstream America has been so slow adopting to HDTV. I know sales are going pretty good now...but even the programming is rather weak for this.
Re: HD DVD/BD....I myself have underestimated how much folks love their dvd quality. Some dvds do look fabulous. Just think before last year how much we all here went bonkers over our faves on dvd.
Just not happening with HD software yet. People can blame the format war but I don't. Right now, most people are content with sd dvd.
Hope it changes so we early adopters DON'T have a niche market. Niche markets like laserdisc were pretty damn expensive.
Still remember paying $60 for the LD for The Rock (Sean Connery) back in early November 1996. Drove 45 miles to my nearest Suncoast Motion Picture location to pick up my pre-order.
Niche markets can get away with charging too much. Hopefully, prices for HD content will continue to drop, advertising will rise, Walmart and Target will up their displays and awareness....and that would certainly help.
I tend to agree with Katzenberg and it certainly doesn't bode well for seeing Dreamworks animation making it to either format any time soon (hope I am wrong here).
I tend to agree with Mr K, HD DVD and Blu Ray are a niche, a large and pretty vocal niche if you happen to be in the right arena to hear it, but niche nonetheless.
J6P doesn't really care about HD content, especially if it is a lot of trouble to get. Sure, he knows that football looks better (or whatever) in HD but is he going to pay extra for it?
The TV will be the big "Wow" purchase, the content on said TV is not nearly as important. Right? Who goes, "I got a 42" LCD TV and you should see X on it" . Everyone goes "I got x TV", what is on it is somewhat irrelevant. And DVD on it already looks better than TV so it is a step up in quality right there (although boy will J6P be pissed when all his Full Screen movies have large black bars down the side or Jessica Simpson's ass looks huge because it has been stretched to fit the 16X9 screen!)
Until HD content becomes mainstream TV then HD is a niche at best.
Honestly, I think everyone thinks DVD is hi def as it is. I certainly did before the advent of HD DVD and I like to think I am pretty knowledgable about this stuff....
I've said it before and I will say it again. If it remains a niche product I am very ok with it. like others said before, LD was and that was fine.
The only set back to niche product is the price. If neither format goes mainstraim then prices stay were they are, maybe go up, and will never reach $5 Wal mart cheapie bin status in the next 3-5 years.
However it means a small percentage of the population, the hardcore fanatics like me , help push studios in the right direction. having DVD like penetration means you get Wal-Mart lady complaining about blackbars all over again. It means Pan and Scan 2.35 movies like Star Wars to 16:9 or Tilt and Scan of 4:3 movies like Gone with the wind. It's scary.
It would also mean Disney movies have more Kiddie games than making of documentaries. It means multiple releases in fullscreen and widescreen and single disc and double disc SE and being only able to find the one disc Fullscreen version at your local store.
It means that if there is a problem disc missing a promised soundtrack or edited when uncut was advertised than we get faster action. If 1000 people complain out of the 10 000 copies sold it has bigger impact than those same 1000 complaning when the item sold 2 million copies on release week.
I also remember those days, with little fondness. My first LD purchase was $125 for Criterion's special edition of The Adventures of Baron Munchausen. I thought it was worth it, as the film is one of my all-time favorites. But I'm glad that pricing has gone the way of the dodo. Remember $250 for the CAV boxed set of the Star Wars Trilogy? Whew! The QC on laserdiscs was terrible too. It was rare to find a disc that didn't have some kind of nasty, rolling drop-out on it.
Thank God for DVD, which got the pricing for special editions down to a more reasonable level. If HD discs remain a niche and never gets any cheaper, I won't be crying too hard. They're pretty affordable as it is, IMO. Or at least they should be, to anyone who had the disposable cash necessary to get high-def equipment in the first place.
Most people still don't even have the widescreen sets necessary to enjoy current anamorphic DVD to its fullest. They won't be ready or interested in HD for a while. And even with a high-def monitor, the quality bump between a well-upscaled standard DVD and a high-def DVD is pretty subtle until you get to screen sizes of 50" and up.
Katzenberg also thinks that 3d movies will become the norm. Unfortunately, none of the things that prevented it from being the norm 30 years ago have been corrected. Until it can be presented without a pair of glasses, and done so in a manner that doesn't give some portion of the viewers a migrane, it'll never be anything more than a gimmick.
That article is like concluding that Windows Vista will be niche because most computers can't run it right now.
HD programming and HD-Media demand is a function of HDTV installation and clear and easy to obtain HD Providers. Since Providers make no effort to advertise HDTV it's no surprise that people aren't interested/don't know how to get it.
There wasn't any huge demand for Digital Cable either until Providers pushed it, and that didn't offer any advantage over normal cable.
Not directed at the poster, but it just amazes me how many people(Reporters) look at one set of numbers and completely ignore all of the dependent variables. Then go for "Shock" reporting.
Seriously, if the drop in flat panel pricing yielded double digit sales growth, then it can't be concluded that there's no market for HDTV's. If Providers bury their HD offerings and don't advertise it, then it can't be concluded there's no demand. Especially since there's absolutely no intuitive way for people to know they need extra stuff to get HDTV, expecting people to automatically know how an entire new product line works is lunacy. Especially since there hasn't been a change in the product line in 50 years, and there's never been a need to sign up for a special delivery system to get better quality. TV has always been TV, there's never been a "Better" parallel cable system before, and expecting people to inherently know they need something extra to get the benefits isn't realistic.
I wouldn't presume to debate you, as you seem to know more about it than I do. But it still wouldn't surprise me if HD media are still a niche at that point. Obviously I hope that won't be the case.
Six months ago I would have said that hd on disk was going to do really well. But now I am also beginning to think that both blu-ray and hd-dvd will be niche formats as well. I can't believe how low the sales figures are - I mean plenty of releases haven't even sold 2000 copies eg Chicago, best picture oscar winner selling a total of 924 copies! Jawdroppingly bad. Or phone booth selling a grand total of 289 copies!
Selling quanties this low means loses when you take in to consideration the production costs to make the high def dvds, and distribution etc.
The studios must be shocked at how bad things are doing. There are after all a few millions PS3 owners out there with access to bluray, and a decent quantity of xbox360 hd drives.
Basically people aren't buying.
Whenever I show people blu-ray they all say 'oh it looks good'. But if I ask them if they would buy into it - they all say 'yeah it looks good but frankly dvd is fine for my needs and I like movies too!'.
So long as the movies I want are available I'm happy enough. I did plan to upgrade most of my 400 dvd collection as I am a videophile, but after my initial experience with blu-ray even I would only upgrade my favs - probably 100 or so of them. I've seen a few movies that don't look massively better than dvd because of the source material eg Lethal Weapon and Mission impossible. So only those titles that have a good upgrade will be worth replacing.
If in 1 years time, both blu-ray and hd-dvd are widely perceived as niche products - what do you think will happen? - will the studios abandon the formats, release less, or just think 'well at least its another source of income no matter how small relatively speaking well release as normal', or release more to try and push it ?
Personally I can see prices staying high, it becoming a niche that only people on forums like this, and avsforum talk excitedly, and everyone else sticks with dvd.
On a final note, I keep reading about how 'well all these high def sets are being sold and people will want high def content to show it off on to'. I actually think thats not right either. People are buying the high def sets because they are priced at reasonable levels, and look smart, and dvds look good on them too! Most people's screen size is 42" or lower, and dvds will look great on them. Thats why most people are happy with dvds on their recently bought high def sets.