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NY post says Blu ray winning and will win


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#21 of 39 Jason Seaver

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Posted March 09 2007 - 04:30 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnPhi
I am really curious as to how it may be at all possible for HD DVD to win, I just don't see it now.
HD DVD's best chance right now is to get player prices down to where they're not a huge premium over upscaling players. That's the $200-250 price range, and I suspect that's not possible right now

The other is to somehow convince Universal, Weinstein, Warner, and Paramount to give up separate SKUs for DVD and HD DVD, and release everything as combo discs. Do that, and a year from now someone looking to buy a next-gen DVD player may go for HD DVD because they already have a dozen movies in that format.

But, the hardware manufacturer(s) have little incentive to do the first and the studios have nearly as little to the second.

The other alternative, I imagine, would be to decide that the prize isn't being the next DVD, but the next LaserDisc, and start taking steps to own that niche - play up that it's region-free, make subtitle tracks available for foreign discs (there's a few Japanese discs I'd have already purchased if this were the case), provide incentives for the likes of Criterion, Anchor Bay, and Tartan to join up. Of course, no-one's likely to admit that until it's too late.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnPhi
Seriously, HD DVD is dead, it just doesn't know it yet...I am someone who tired of the bs and wants a winner, so I can buy in.
If you're so certain, why don't you put your money where your mouth is? I don't say this sarcastically, but if you really figure there's nothing HD DVD can do to win, why are you waiting for them to officially throw in the towel rather than enjoying 1080p movies with lossless sound?
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#22 of 39 DaViD Boulet

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Posted March 09 2007 - 04:49 AM

Quote:
If you're so certain, why don't you put your money where your mouth is? I don't say this sarcastically, but if you really figure there's nothing HD DVD can do to win, why are you waiting for them to officially throw in the towel rather than enjoying 1080p movies with lossless sound?

Good point!

That's what I did (I've felt certain BD will be the winner, so once the PS3 came along and offered an affordable/high-quality player option, I bought in).
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#23 of 39 Grant H

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Posted March 09 2007 - 05:12 AM

Well, I for one am only waiting for there to be a player that actually CAN decode all the lossless formats (not just provide the high-res flavor) and has 7.1 analog outs. There are a lot of promises out there, but so far no definites that I've seen. All those Fox titles with tracks no one can get the full benefit of? And while I'm at it I might as well wait for one with Internet connectivity (why all this Ethernet port jazz; why not Wi-Fi like the PS3 and even the $250 Wii game system; don't they realize wires are yesteryear? And with firmware updates seemingly needed with each new wave of titles, it sure would make updates a lot less painless. Consumers need products they don't have to think about--a live Internet connection with automatic updates sure seems like the way to go. I can download, burn and install firmware from disc, but I shouldn't have to. I don't bother getting music that way--I'd rather just buy a CD than waste time dowloading it to disc or some tiny gadget begging to break.) I don't want something I have to replace in a few months time. I would suspect there are many others like me (maybe not who care about the 7.1 outs).

Until then, I get to sit back and watch the show play out much the way I anticipated. I do have a few friends I could say "I told you so" to, but I might as well wait until such time as I actually have the player I want and am watching a BD copy of Batman Begins. Posted Image

But I do have 5 BDs on my shelf that I scored for only about $15/pop. Not too much to lose if the tide suddently shifted, but I don't see that happening. Depending on the deals available next week, I may add another--Casino Royale. When sales of that title soar, you can bet it will fuel Sony to prep the ultimate Bond collection for BD. With the last overhaul for DVD they're pretty much ready to be ported over. Would make a nice Christmas gift wouldn't it?

I just wish I could have bought massive amounts of stock in Blu-ray when both formats launched and everyone was trying to paint HD-DVD as the winner and Blu-ray DOA.
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#24 of 39 Dave H

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Posted March 09 2007 - 05:22 AM

I just don't see anyway HD DVD can pull this thing out. Despite disappointing sales, the PS3 is still going to sell at least five million units this year in the U.S. At a 20% attach rate (as being reported today), that's still one million units not even counting standalone Blu-ray units - which will include a new Sony unit at $599 in June for those who don't like the PS3. There is no way HD DVD can match anywhere near these numbers as far as hardware sold. Considering that the HD-A2 will be marked down to $399, it's now a $200 price difference between standalone units between the formats; down from last year's $500 difference. Obviously, we're coming to a point soon where there will be no price difference in hardware. When this point happens, there will be NO advantage for HD DVD. And before you think about those HD DVD chinese players coming - well, they're going to be coming for Blu-ray too.

From a software perspective, it's even going to be worse for HD DVD. Only having three major studios supporting the format is now being felt and will continue to be - especially considering the big Blu-ray exclusive titles coming out. In addition, I think Universal can only go so long without supporting Blu-ray based on the increased BD sales.

Finally, from a media perspective, it's very obvious. Most of the entire mainstream and technical media outlets overwhelmingly support Blu-ray and/or want Blu-ray to win. This IS going to make an impact on new, potential HD buyers.

HD DVD is a great format and I would have NO problem with it - but looking at all of this from a business and marketing perspective, there's just too much against it.

#25 of 39 DaViD Boulet

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Posted March 09 2007 - 06:10 AM

Quote:
Considering that the HD-A2 will be marked down to $399, it's now a $200 price difference between standalone units between the formats; down from last year's $500 difference.

Toshiba also stands to hurt themselves financially by pricing their hardware at a loss to try to maintain market share. At least with the PS3, sony eventually makes up the lost profit by software (game) sales. But the slim profit margin on movie-software doesn't provide the same return and with the tide moving the way it is, Toshiba's under-pricing strategy, which worked early on to bring on many HD DVD consumers, will grind to a financial hault.
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#26 of 39 Zack Gibbs

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Posted March 09 2007 - 06:33 AM

"HD DVD's best chance right now is to get player prices down to where they're not a huge premium over upscaling players. That's the $200-250 price range, and I suspect that's not possible right now"

"If you're so certain, why don't you put your money where your mouth is? I don't say this sarcastically, but if you really figure there's nothing HD DVD can do to win, why are you waiting for them to officially throw in the towel rather than enjoying 1080p movies with lossless sound?"

(haven't bought a format yet) Here's the thing; I know HD-DVD can't win, they haven't a leg to stand on. That being said it's true the war isn't over yet and even if Universal hurried up and supported Blu-ray (inevitable) it still doesn't fully secure the format. DVD came out in '97, you didn't see a DVD player in every home by '98. Or '99. New formats take time and they don't get accepted faster when theres a F-war on.

So for me and many others the time isn't right to buy into a new format. I don't know when I will exactly, I don't know if Blu-ray will be the next big media (although it seems likely), but as I said I do know it won't be HD-DVD, they lose in every important way imaginable by a large margin. I just can't see how anyone can honestly still support them outside of political reasoning or foolish "I already bought it so I'm supporting it till the end" attitude. What if Toshiba releases a $50 HD-DVD player? I won't buy it, waste of 50 bucks.
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#27 of 39 Jason Seaver

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Posted March 09 2007 - 07:28 AM

Well, there's the whole "being able to watch great-looking/sounding movies NOW" thing.
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#28 of 39 thalazy

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Posted March 09 2007 - 07:30 AM

HD DVD has more than a leg to stand on. First it more affordable and will be the first to reach that mass market price point. Second of all it's 100% complete there is no "well we are almost there with BD-J". People will flock to the most inexpensive format and currently that will remain HD DVD. HD DVD is actually doing very well considering it has fewer studios and fewer player's in homes than BR (if you count PS3, which is debatable). Sony has an uphill battle with this format as people are still reeling over Betamax, Minidiscs and UMD to name a few of the failed format Sony has tried to introduce, as well as BR currently being an unfinished format. Studio support can change in an instant. People stick with HD DVD because the quality is there and always has been, unlike BR which came out of the gate crippled. The format war is far from over and if people believe BR is going to be victorious I have a bridge for sale.

#29 of 39 PeterMano

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Posted March 09 2007 - 07:43 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet
Toshiba also stands to hurt themselves financially by pricing their hardware at a loss to try to maintain market share. At least with the PS3, sony eventually makes up the lost profit by software (game) sales. But the slim profit margin on movie-software doesn't provide the same return and with the tide moving the way it is, Toshiba's under-pricing strategy, which worked early on to bring on many HD DVD consumers, will grind to a financial hault.

Sony loses an estimated $200 plus on production costs alone on their ps3 units. This is unprecedented for a video game console. Your analysis is naive and simplistic , toshiba will be losing their shirts, but, sony won't, because EVENTUALLY they'll make up for the hardware losses on the games front. Care to speculate a time frame, since you seem to be speculating on everything else.

Sony stands to make more money on first party titles, but they also stand to lose more. Sony is doing all right with Resistance sales. NBA 07 and Genji 2 sales are horrible. In japan sony has a software to hardware attach ratio of slightly more than one. At this pace, they will never at any point in time make up for the losses on the hardware in their home territory. It simply will not happen.

The other very simplistic part of your argument is this. Toshiba doesn't sell enough hd-dvd players for losses on the units to ever become a major cash drain on the company as a whole. Sony on the other hand is looking to sell say, 10 million ps3s this year. 10 million ps3s at a conservative $200 loss a piece on production costs alone is a whopping $2 billion in losses. That's a big nut.

What happened in the past with the ps2 is not necessarily what will happen with the ps3. The dynamics of the market are different, the price poins are different. You paint this rosy picture for sony financially, but doom and gloom for toshiba without any real hard evidence to back up your viewpoint. You are and will remain imo, a classic FUDster.

#30 of 39 Adam_R

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Posted March 09 2007 - 07:57 AM

I am a bad, bad boy who is supporting both formats at the moment with my $ because I am weak willed.
Guess what...

#31 of 39 BrettB

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Posted March 09 2007 - 08:03 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterMano
The other very simplistic part of your argument is this. Toshiba doesn't sell enough hd-dvd players for losses on the units to ever become a major cash drain on the company as a whole.

So HD DVD scraps back and wins via Toshiba not selling very many players?

#32 of 39 DaViD Boulet

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Posted March 09 2007 - 08:20 AM

Sony will recoup, in time, the losses on the PS3 via games. It's their profit model and it's worked time and time again. The profit on game sales exponentially exceeds the revenue from movie discs. That's what makes it possible to lose so much money on the hardware but float the costs via software (over time, it may take a few years for the PS3's software sales to offset the losses, and Sony is prepared for that).

Quote:
HD DVD has more than a leg to stand on. First it more affordable and will be the first to reach that mass market price point.... People will flock to the most inexpensive format and currently that will remain HD DVD.

Uh, no mass-market consumer is going to adopt an HD format, even an affordable one, until the war is over. Comments like this don't reflect the reality that low prices won't win the war, though once the war is over, lower prices will certainly help the remaining format to gain a stronger consumer base.

Quote:
Second of all it's 100% complete there is no "well we are almost there with BD-J".

By the time the war is over, which is the only point that mass-market consumers will be ready to consider getting into HD, BD will be fully realized.

Personally, I'd rather have a format delivering 50GB with lossless 24-bit audio and AVC peaking at over 40 mbps today knowing PIP will come along this summer, than a format with PIP today but that can't even provide the bandwidth for 24-bit Dolby True HD on demanding titles....ever.
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#33 of 39 Edwin-S

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Posted March 09 2007 - 02:20 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterMano


The other very simplistic part of your argument is this. Toshiba doesn't sell enough hd-dvd players for losses on the units to ever become a major cash drain on the company as a whole. Sony on the other hand is looking to sell say, 10 million ps3s this year. 10 million ps3s at a conservative $200 loss a piece on production costs alone is a whopping $2 billion in losses. That's a big nut.


Well I think it is simplistic to think that the loss per unit is some static number. In other words, the idea that SONY will lose 200 dollars on the first unit sold and 200 dollars on the 10 millionth unit sold just doesn't wash. Unit cost of production is going to fall as the total number of units produced rises. If SONY can maintain the present price level and sell 10 million units then they are eventually going to be making money on the last unit sold or at least be losing far less than 200 dollars a unit. I'm sure that SONY has calculated the point at which their production costs vs sales revenue on the PS3 results in red ink turning to black. I'm also fairly sure that that point will be reached much sooner than the 10 millionth unit sold.

Part of SONY's problem with the "sluggish" sales is the lack of a must have game that is available only for that system. Once a game like that appears...and sooner or later it will appear........then the sales of PS3s will increase rapidly. The high price that gamers are whining about will suddenly become a lot less important. The other upside of falling production costs due to rising production of PS3s is that components for standalone players will also become increasingly cheaper. In turn, this will allow the cost of standalone players to be rapidly decreased.
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#34 of 39 Tim Glover

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Posted March 09 2007 - 03:11 PM

It's hard to ignore parts of the Paramount's guys quotes though Brett...Posted Image

I agree he makes 2 rather different statements but I guess both camps can take these and run with it....

#35 of 39 todd s

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Posted March 09 2007 - 03:30 PM

Quote:
HD DVD has more than a leg to stand on. First it more affordable and will be the first to reach that mass market price point.... People will flock to the most inexpensive format and currently that will remain HD DVD.

That would be true if the ALL the studios were releasing for it. But, unless Disney decides to all of the sudden release for HD-DVD. Their is no way people will "flock" to hd-dvd.
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#36 of 39 Edwin-S

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Posted March 09 2007 - 03:33 PM

Where did that second quote from Mandato come from? I didn't see it in the original article that was linked.
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#37 of 39 Ryan-G

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Posted March 09 2007 - 05:10 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by thalazy
HD DVD has more than a leg to stand on. First it more affordable and will be the first to reach that mass market price point. Second of all it's 100% complete there is no "well we are almost there with BD-J". People will flock to the most inexpensive format and currently that will remain HD DVD.

No it won't. BR will hit mass-market price point a very long time before HD-DVD can.

BR currently has production parts for it's players being ramped up beyond BR demand by PS3 production, while HD-DVD parts remains limited solely by HD-DVD demand. Additionally, the PC market will soon be faced with the choice between the two, and the PC market is fairly educated. The PC market's going to look at 15gigs a layer vs 25 gigs a layer and conclude that BR is the more economical choice as a back-up medium, especially as drive are around the Terra level.

It's a difference of 69 HD-DVD's to back up, or 41 BRs. Dual Layer discs halves that. A difference of 28 discs is a fairly major difference for the PC market, especially once you consider the time investment as well the extra discs require as well.

So BR will have PC and PS3 ramping production of BR parts at a faster pace than HD-DVD will have. As such, BR will have a faster and steeper price curve downwards.

BR will be the cheaper format very quickly.

Edit: It's also important to note that the discs themselves will have a faster price curve as well, because PS3 disc production and eventual PC demand will drive down manufacturing costs.

#38 of 39 Chris Gerhard

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Posted March 09 2007 - 11:35 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gabe D
I think that what they really need to do is to lower the price of a combo to a level that is an acceptable (if slightly higher than usual) price for a new SD DVD, and then eliminate SD-only releases. If people who only buy SD DVDs gradually build up a collection of 10 or 20 or 30 HD-DVDs, they will be more likely to buy an HD-DVD player. It would also force stores to put the HD-DVD combos where SD DVD shoppers would see them. If Universal is serious about backing HD-DVD only (a big if, maybe?), then I think that this is their best bet to turn the tide.

Nice in theory but can't possibly fly, the manufacturing cost is too great and DVD's sell at too low a price. DVD will continue on for a long time, probably the same length of time as Blu-ray and HD DVD. Trying to force consumers to pay extra for something they don't want trying to force acceptance is never a good idea in my opinion.

The NY Post is correct, Blu-ray is winning, but Blu-ray is not the clear winner and we don't know yet if there will be one, both or neither of these formats survive.

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#39 of 39 Austan

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Posted March 10 2007 - 02:01 AM

Here's some more stats, too bad they still dont include hard numbers...
Nielson VideoScan


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