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Blu Ray delivers another blow to hd.


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#1 of 125 OFFLINE   Greg T

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Posted January 25 2006 - 06:04 AM

With Disneys purchase of Pixar, B/R has such a studio support advantage as well as hardware support advantage, that they have zero incentive to back a universal player, and seem to be on there way to a win in this so called format war.
No amount of discounting of hd players is going to make up for the lack of studio support from MGM,Columbia Tri Star, Lions Gate, Miramax, Disney, Fox, and now Pixar imo.

It looks as if the majority studios have picked Blu Ray for its tighter security and of course the huge Ps3 sales.

The long term looks to favor Blu Ray by quite a bit at this point imo.

#2 of 125 OFFLINE   Jim Smith

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Posted January 25 2006 - 07:11 AM

Until a Pixar title is announced for the format I am not bying this as an advantage.

#3 of 125 OFFLINE   Greg T

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Posted January 25 2006 - 08:20 AM

My list of no hd studio support is lacking Sony Pictures.
So the list should read.
Sony Pictures
Columbia Tri Srar
Fox
MGM
Miramax
Disney
Lions Gate
Pixar

This is more half of the studios, and will be the end of hd dvd imo.

#4 of 125 OFFLINE   Jim Smith

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Posted January 25 2006 - 08:25 AM

Pixar isn't really a studio on the level of the others. It has only 6 freaken movies. True every single one of them has been a sucessful classic but still just six movies.

#5 of 125 OFFLINE   Ken_F

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Posted January 25 2006 - 08:30 AM

There are still far too many variables to predict a winner.

Aside from Sony and Fox, none of the other BD studios have any real investment or loyalty to BD. They'll take their content wherever the market is. Sony promised studios widespread availability of the PS3 starting this spring, and if the PS3 isn't out this year, or is only available in limited quantity at a high price, then the picture could change. If the $400-$500 HD-DVD players (2nd generation expected at $300-$400 this fall) really catch on, then you'll almost certainly see more studios announcing support for HD-DVD.

It's interesting to note that each studio who signed on to Blu-ray committed to releasing just 15 titles for that format. That's right, 15 titles. In order to be a launch partner for Blu-ray, and to receive the most favorable BD pricing from Sony, a studio had to commit to releasing 15 titles for the format. Any studio that doesn't sign up for Blu-ray launch is in real trouble if that format wins, because then they will be paying more on every disk sold than their competition. In contrast, HD-DVD has no such support-us-now-or-pay-more-later provision -- it doesn't matter whether a studio announces support for the format now or later, they'll be paying the same amount.

Disney helped to design the interactivity technology (iHD) used by HD-DVD. They sought to bring it to Blu-ray, along with Apple, Samsung, and LG, but were outvoted by supporters of Sun's BJ-Java. Disney would probably be among the first to jump ship with HD-DVD support if sales of $300-$500 HD-DVD players are good, and shipments of the PS3 are repeatedly delayed.

Once again, it's far too early to tell how things will pan out. Only one thing is for certain -- the outcome of this debate will have a lot to do with the release, pricing, and availability of the PS3, as well as sales and adoption of $300-$500 HD-DVD players. There won't necessarily be one winner, as the Netflix CEO reiterated yesterday:

Quote:
I should mention that in the high-definition format debate, we see 3 possibilities. One, is that a single format emerges as the clear winner in the minds of studios and consumers. The second possibility is that Samsung and others, create DVD players that play both Blu-ray and HD-DVD. The third possibility is that most studios publish in dual formats, like most game publishers do, for PS2 and Xbox today. Any of these scenarios would be acceptable to Netflix, and we remain neutral in the debate. "

Updated some terminology.

#6 of 125 OFFLINE   Jesse Skeen

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Posted January 25 2006 - 09:12 AM

The REAL question is which porn companies are bluray exclusive? Posted Image
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#7 of 125 OFFLINE   FrancisP

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Posted January 25 2006 - 10:17 AM

There are way too many cards to be played yet. Any one of these could turn things one way or the other. The lack of titles will not be a big factor since there will be a limited number of titles available. A number of studios refused to initially back SD and it survived. The only way it becomes an issue is if the battles goes on over 12-18 months and there are no defections. However Disney has said they are not opposed to releasing in HD-DVD if that's what the market dictates.

#8 of 125 OFFLINE   Greg T

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Posted January 26 2006 - 07:01 AM

There is only one card to be played imo...and thats the PS3, which will absolutely put more Blu Ray players in U.S. homes, than all other players from either format combined.
Think 100 times as may = Blu Ray win.

The studios will stick with BD because of the tighter security measures and the PS3.

#9 of 125 OFFLINE   Ed St. Clair

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Posted January 26 2006 - 07:18 AM

Quote:
There is only one card to be played imo...and thats the PS3, which will absolutely put more Blu Ray players in U.S. homes, than all other players from either format combined.

Little companies like HP & MS will be dropping HD-DVD drives into computers at a rate you believe to be;
Quote:
Think 100 times as may = Blu Ray win.

are you sure about that?
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#10 of 125 OFFLINE   BrettGallman

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Posted January 26 2006 - 07:21 AM

Yeah, I can't speak for the majority of people, but I can say that the DVD drive in our first computer got me on the DVD bandwagon. So we can't underestimate the impact of HD-DVD in this context.
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#11 of 125 OFFLINE   Greg T

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Posted January 26 2006 - 07:32 AM

I buy from Dell...as do most....can you say BD drivePosted Image

#12 of 125 OFFLINE   Jeff(R)

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Posted January 26 2006 - 08:10 AM

Yes and let's not forget that HP (if you are into their products) will be offering Blu-ray drives as well. For computer use, if given a choice, I would go Blu-ray.

Posted Image

#13 of 125 OFFLINE   Kyle_D

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Posted January 26 2006 - 08:27 AM

The more I read about PS3, the less I'm convinced it will be the powerhouse seller some expect it to be.

There have been reports that supposedly Sony still hasn't been able to manufacture a working unit and cost estimates range from 400-600 dollars. By the time the thing launches (next fall is what analysts are saying now), Microsoft will likely have worked out its supply shortages of the 360 and will counter the PS3 launch with a price cut. Going into the holiday season, you'll likely see a shortage of PS3s selling for, at the least, $400, while Xbox360 should be a) easier to find, b) $100 less and c) with more games available.

Now, the majority of both PS3 and Xbox360 software is developed by third party developers who release their games for both systems. At the PS2 launch, you had gamers salivating over exclusive titles like MGS2, Final Fantasy X and Gran Turismo 3. Square is now developing for Microsoft, MGS2 was eventually ported to Xbox, meaning MGS4 might make it to 360, PGR3 and Forza Motor Sport are worthy rivals to Gran Turismo, and Microsoft has the one BIG exclusive at the moment: Halo 3.

Add in the fact that Xbox Live smokes any online offering from Sony and you might see Sony lose the dominance they've held for the last 10 years in the next console generation.

Will PS3 put Blu-Ray players in homes? Yes. Will it do so to the extent many here are predicting? We shall see, but I remain skeptical.

#14 of 125 OFFLINE   Jason Harbaugh

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Posted January 26 2006 - 08:57 AM

Quote:
Will PS3 put Blu-Ray players in homes? Yes. Will it do so to the extent many here are predicting? We shall see, but I remain skeptical.
I think the answer to that will be completely based on how many units Sony can actually produce. If you just go by how many the PS2 sold in the 'first' day, you are looking at an instant million units. The 360 has been out for over 2 months now and MS has only managed ~600,000. I don't expect the near million sold in one day again due to the expected price, but I can see them matching what MS has sold so far in just the first launch weekend. That is, if they actually have the units manufactured. That will be the biggest hurdle for them and it is looking like it could be factor early on.

MS will still be a player in the console world, but I seriously doubt they will overtake Sony this round.

#15 of 125 OFFLINE   FrancisP

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Posted January 26 2006 - 09:06 AM

Quote:
There is only one card to be played imo...and thats the PS3, which will absolutely put more Blu Ray players in U.S. homes, than all other players from either format combined. Think 100 times as may = Blu Ray win.

There is not a scintilla of evidence to support that. PS2 did not provide any boost to SD. If that card turns into an ace then it could provide a boost to blu-ray. If it turns into a joker then its lights out on that theory.

Quote:
The studios will stick with BD because of the tighter security measures and the PS3.
Disney will likely defect if this goes on for a year or longer. Disney's CEO has said that they could go HD-DVD
if that's what the market dictates.

#16 of 125 OFFLINE   Vader

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Posted January 26 2006 - 09:14 AM

Quote:
PS2 did not provide any boost to SD.


In that case there was not a competing format on a rival's console...
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#17 of 125 OFFLINE   EricRWem

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Posted January 26 2006 - 09:16 AM

Quote:
There is not a scintilla of evidence to support that. PS2 did not provide any boost to SD. If that card turns into an ace then it could provide a boost to blu-ray. If it turns into a joker then its lights out on that theory.

Deductive logic + a completely different situation.

DVD had already been out for several years by the time the PS2 came out. The PS2 was still many people's first DVD players, especially college kids and others of fairly "limited income." DVD was already well on its way. The PS2 just finished things off.

The PS3, on the other hand, will be right at the forefront and speaheading the entire BR effort.



Consider:

Courtesy of Etoychest.org:

Quote:
In Tokyo today Sony announced that cumulative worldwide shipment of their PlayStation 2 had reached 100 million units as of November 29 of this year.

This makes the system the fastest computer entertainment platform to reach this figure. This achievement comes within 5 years and 9 months since its launch in Japan in March 2000, 3 years and 9 months faster in penetration speed compared to its predecessor, the original PlayStation.

The PlayStation was the first computer entertainment platform ever to reach the 100 million mark, achieved in 9 years and 6 months since launch.

PlayStation 2 Cumulative Shipment by Territory (as of Nov 29, 2005)


Japan (including Asia (*1)) 22.22 million units (launch date: March 4, 2000)


North America 40.65 million units (launch date: October 26, 2000)


Europe/PAL 37.14 million units (launch date: November 24, 2000)

Keep in mind: This is already dated information from November 30, 2005.

I'm writing this nearly two months later.

So just think about it: If even 25 percent of these people buy a PS3, to say nothing about more...I don't see how BR can be stopped and its adoption is virtually guaranteed at that point.

It's a very conservative expectation to say that only 25 percent of the existing PS2 userbase would trade in towards a new PS3, especially if backwards compatibility with existing PS2 games is assured.

This is a easy, huge, mass market adoption and a boon for Blu-Ray that virtually assures its victory.

What does HD-DVD have to counter something like this?

#18 of 125 OFFLINE   Greg T

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Posted January 26 2006 - 09:25 AM

NothingPosted Image

#19 of 125 OFFLINE   Kyle_D

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Posted January 26 2006 - 09:33 AM

Like I said Jason, we shall see, but from what I've read and heard, Sony is expected to have an even harder time manufacturing the PS3 than Microsoft is with the 360. If Microsoft can solve their problems and have a consistent supply of units on the shelves by the back-to-school rush in July/August, they'll have a leg up on PS3 when it launches in the fall. Then, if Sony can't get PS3s on the shelves during the holiday season and Microsoft can, and at a lower price, Microsoft is just going to lengthen their lead.

I bring this up not as a Microsoft/HD-DVD fanboy (I own all 3 current gen consoles, use a Mac, and prefer Blu-Ray), but as a skeptic. If Sony can produce sufficient units at a reasonable price, the PS3 will sell gangbusters. If they can't, Microsoft's launch lead is going to give them the heavy advantage.

#20 of 125 OFFLINE   Anthony_De

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Posted January 26 2006 - 12:21 PM

Sony is expected to have an even harder time manufacturing the PS3 than Microsoft is with the 360.


How so? The CPU is going to be produced by Toshiba, IBM, and Sony themselves. That's three different providers. Not to mention the Cell chip in the PS3 has redundancy built in to improve yields. The GPU is highly derivative of a current PC GPU that has been in production for ~8 months. It shouldn't provide too much trouble.


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