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2006 at the Box Office

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#1 of 2056 OFFLINE   TerryRL



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Posted December 31 2005 - 08:27 AM

Well since Tino bullied me into starting a new thread, here it is. Posted Image

With 2005 coming to an end we are on the horizon for a new 12-month session at the box office. 2005 didn't turn out to be the "$10 billion Year" that the studios were hoping for. While the year did see a record number of films hit the $200 million mark (seven, tying the record of 2002), the year didn't feature the type of Indie breakout hits that carried 2004 to record numbers (i.e. "The Passion of the Christ" and "Fahrenheit 9/11").

While ticket prices continued to go up, overall ticket sales were down for the third straight year after the record-shattering numbers of 2002 (1.578 billion,which registered the most admissions sold in a single year since the 1950s). Despite the downturn in numbers, the studios enjoyed another spectacular year of DVD sales as the projected numbers look to nearly match 2005's record mark of $24.5 billion.

This year, the studios are opting to keep their expectations more in check. With no franchise juggernaut hitting theaters this year (i.e. "Star Wars", 'Harry Potter', "Shrek", or "Spider-Man"), the studios aren't really expecting a $350-$400 million domestic grosser this year, but are expecting many films to reach that $200-$300 million level (in particular, films like "Cars", "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest", 'X3', "Superman Returns", and M:I-3).

For the most part, the studios are hoping that 2006's schedule will put more asses in the seats than 2005 did. Will 2006 be bigger than 2005, thus allowing the studio execs to breath a big sigh of relief? We'll see what happens.

Here is the tentative schedule for releases this year, remember all dates are subject to change.

(Bold indicates new release expected to earn the most during its debut weekend. Said film may not finish the weekend at #1, but is the film expected to do the most business of the new releases.)

"BloodRayne" (Romar Entertainment)
"Grandma's Boy" (Fox)
"Hostel" (Lions Gate)

"Glory Road" (Disney)
"Last Holiday" (Paramount)
"Tristan and Isolde" (Fox)

"Underworld: Evolution" (Sony/Screen Gems)

"Annapolis" (Disney)
"Big Momma's House 2" (Fox)
"Nanny McPhee" (Universal)

"Something New" (Focus Features)
"When a Stranger Calls" (Sony)

"Curious George" (Universal)
"Failure to Launch" (Paramount)
"Final Destination 3" (New Line)
"Firewall" (WB)
"The Pink Panther" (Sony)

"Date Movie" (Fox)
"Eight Below" (Disney)
"Freedomland" (Sony/Revolution)

"Alpha Dog" (New Line)
"Doogel" (Weinstein Co.)
"Running Scared" (New Line)
"Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion" (Lions Gate)
"Ultraviolet" (Sony/Screen Gems)

"16 Blocks" (WB)
"Aquamarine" (Fox)
"Dave Chappelle's Block Party" (Focus Features)
"Goal! The Dream Begins" (Disney)
"Pulse" (Dimention)

"The Hills Have Eyes" (Fox Searchlight)
"Idlewild" (Universal)
"The Shaggy Dog" (Disney)

"Ask the Dusk" (Paramount)
"She's the Man" (DreamWorks/Paramount)
"V for Vendetta" (WB)

"The Inside Man" (Universal)
"RV" (Sony)
"Stay Alive" (Disney)

"ATL" (WB)
"Basic Instinct 2: Risk Addiction" (MGM)
"Ice Age 2: The Meltdown" (Fox)
"Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector" (Paramount)
"Lucky Number Slevin" (Weinstein Co.)
"A Scanner Darkly" (WB)
"Slither" (Universal)

"The Benchwarmers" (Sony/Revolution)
"Lucky You" (WB)
"Phat Girlz" (Fox Searchlight)
"Take the Lead" (New Line)

"American Dreamz" (Universal)
"Scary Movie 4" (Weinstein Co.)
"The Wild" (Disney)

"Accepted" (Universal)
"The Cleaner" (New Line)
"Hoot" (New Line)
"The Sentinel" (Fox)
"Silent Hill" (Sony)

"Akeelah and the Bee" (Lions Gate)
"Catch and Release" (Sony)
"Flight 93" (Universal)
"Waist Deep" (Focus Features)
"Water" (Fox Searchlight)

"In the Land of Women" (Warner Independent)
"Mission: Impossible III" (Paramount)

"Just My Luck" (Fox)
"Poseidon" (WB)

"The Da Vinci Code" (Sony)
"Over the Hedge" (DreamWorks)
"See No Evil" (Lions Gate)

"Little Man" (Sony)
"X3: The Last Stand" (Fox)

"The Break-Up" (Universal)
"Nacho Libre" (Paramount)

"Cars" (Disney/Pixar)
"Omen 666" (Fox)
"A Prairie Home Companion" (Picturehouse)

"The Fast and the Furious 3: Tokyo Drift" (Universal)
"The Lake House" (WB)
"Pathfinder" (Fox)

"Click" (Sony)
"Garfield 2" (Fox)

"The Devil Wears Prada" (Fox)
"Superman Returns" (WB)

"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" (Disney)

"School for Scoundrels" (Weinstein Co.)
"Super Ex-Girlfriend" (Fox)
"Trust the Man" (Fox Searchlight)
"You, Me and Dupree" (Universal)

"Lady in the Water" (WB)
"Monster House" (Sony)

"Flicka" (Fox)
"Miami Vice" (Universal)

"The Ant Bully" (WB)
"High, Wide and Handsome" (Sony)

"The Return of Zoom" (Sony)
"The Visiting" (WB)
"World Trade Center" (Paramount)

"The Messengers" (Sony)
"Snakes on a Plane" (New Line)
"Stormbreaker" (Weinstein Co.)

"DOA: Dead or Alive" (Dimention)
"How to Eat Fried Worms" (New Line)
"Yankee Irving" (Fox)

"The Return" (Focus Features)

"The Covenant" (Sony)

"Gridiron Gang" (Sony)

"Grind House" (Weinstein Co.)
"Jackass 2" (Paramount)
"Running with Scissors" (Sony)

"The Children of Men" (Universal)
"Open Season" (Sony)

"The Barnyard" (Paramount)
"Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning" (New Line)

"Marie-Antoinette" (Sony)
"Sunshine" (Fox)

"The Grudge 2" (Sony)

"Saw 3" (Lions Gate)
"Tenacious D in The Pick of Destiny" (New Line)

"Flushed Away" (DreamWorks)
"The Santa Clause 3" (Disney)

"Stranger Than Fiction" (Sony)

"Foodfight!" (Lions Gate)
"Happy Feet" (WB)

"Casino Royale" (MGM)



"Eragon" (Fox)
"The Pursuit of Happyness" (Sony)

"Charlotte's Web" (Paramount)
"Dreamgirls" (DreamWorks/Paramount)
"The Good Shephard" (Universal)
"Night at the Museum" (Fox)


High profile films that have yet to receive release dates...
"All the King's Men" (Sony)
"Apocalypto" (Disney)
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (WB)
"The Black Dahlia" (Universal)
"Clerks 2" (Weinstein Co.)
"The Departed" (WB
"The Fountain" (WB)
"Flags of Our Fathers" (DreamWorks/Paramount)
"Hannibal: Behind the Mask" (Universal)
"The Last Kiss" (DreamWorks/Paramount)
"The Prestige" (Disney)
"Resident Evil: Afterlife" (Sony/Screen Gems)
"Sin City 2" (Weinstein Co.)
"Truth, Justice and the American Way" (Focus Features)
"The Wicker Man" (WB)
"Zodiac" (Paramount)
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#2 of 2056 OFFLINE   Chuck Mayer

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Posted December 31 2005 - 08:28 AM


Cars for the win next year. Or something no one will guess.

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#3 of 2056 OFFLINE   Josh.C


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Posted December 31 2005 - 08:39 AM

From the looks of that list, 2005 is looking pretty good.
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#4 of 2056 OFFLINE   Dennis Pagoulatos

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Posted December 31 2005 - 08:47 AM

I'll predict now that Cars will be Pixar's first "disappointment" ever at the box office. I think it will barely get past the $200M mark at the box office. The big head to head is X3 vs Superman Returns, and I'm excited to see which one comes out on top. Above all, I hope they are all good, entertaining films. My most anticipated are, of course, V for Vendetta, Superman Returns, X3, The DaVinci Code, The Fountain, and Lady in the Water. -Dennis
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#5 of 2056 OFFLINE   Malcolm R

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Posted December 31 2005 - 09:18 AM

I'm with Josh.C. That list is rather depressing. Posted Image

Given the sales of the book, and the team of Tom Hanks and Ron Howard, I might have to take "The DaVinci Code" as my early pick to lead the BO. Though the trailer I saw recently didn't impress me.
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#6 of 2056 OFFLINE   Chris_T


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Posted December 31 2005 - 09:22 AM

For me at least, there aren't many "must see" movies on that list. Very underwhelming. I wouldn't be surprised if 2006's box office was less than 2005's. Chris

#7 of 2056 OFFLINE   Jesse Blough

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Posted December 31 2005 - 09:56 AM

"The Messengers" (Sony)
"Snakes on a Plane" (New Line)
"Stormbreaker" (Weinstein Co.)

Haha, no way, Snakes on a Plane is going to hit number one that weekend.

#8 of 2056 OFFLINE   Kyle_D


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Posted December 31 2005 - 10:04 AM

No must sees? You've go newt movies by Martin Scorsese, Oliver Stone, M. Night Shyamalan, Luc Besson, Spike Lee, Michale Mann, Sofia Coppola, Quentin Tarantino/Robert Rodriguez, Mel Gibson, Brian DePalma, Darren Aranofsky and two by Clint Eastwood. There's a new Pixar flick, sequels to Clerks, X-men, Sin City and Pirates of the Carribbean (plus M:I-3) and a new Bond. Add to that the Tenacious D flick, the other WTC movie, V for Vendetta, Superman and 2006 is shaping up pretty nicely.

#9 of 2056 OFFLINE   Nathan V

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Posted December 31 2005 - 10:21 AM

Exactly. Couldn't have said it better myself. Any year with new work from all those guys, not to mention David Fincher (Zodiac), is more than enough for me. I am ready. Regards, Nathan
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#10 of 2056 OFFLINE   Kristian


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Posted December 31 2005 - 10:32 AM

There are several movies there that I consider must-sees, but nothing on the level of the big movies of recent years. Still, there are always a few movies that come out of nowhere and surprise people, so there's still hope.

My guess is that Cars will end up as the highest-grosser, but I think Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest will have the biggest opening weekend of the year.
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#11 of 2056 OFFLINE   Brian Sheffield

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Posted December 31 2005 - 10:37 AM

It's very early yet, but I dont see any of those films having the "Must See" qualities of Star Wars or Harry Potter to the average consumer.

However, personally, I'm very much looking forward to Superman Returns.

#12 of 2056 OFFLINE   Daniel-M


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Posted December 31 2005 - 10:49 AM

My 10(well 11) Most anticipated movies of this year: 1. Casino Royale/X3: The Last Stand 2. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 3. Mission: Impossible III 4. Superman Returns 5. Ice Age 2: The Meltdown 6. The Da Vinci Code 7. Underworld: Evolution 8. V for Vendetta 9. Silent Hill 10.Cars

#13 of 2056 OFFLINE   Lou Sytsma

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Posted December 31 2005 - 11:02 AM

Tsk, tsk. You poor folks that keep under-estimating family movies. Cars will surpass the Incredibles easily. Biggest surprise this year - I am betting on Underworld:Evolution.
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#14 of 2056 OFFLINE   Mark Hawley

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Posted December 31 2005 - 11:41 AM

If Superman Returns is any good, I could easily see it doing Spider-man-type numbers. And if Pirates follows the trend of sequels outdoing their predeccesors, then it could look forward to a $300 million-plus gross.

#15 of 2056 OFFLINE   Dennis Pagoulatos

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Posted December 31 2005 - 12:16 PM

Lou: I'm basing my prediction partly on the explanation of the storyline and evolution of the film from a former employee of Pixar. He is the biggest cheerleader of all things Pixar to this day, loves all of their films, but is convinced that the story and concept of Cars are extremely weak compared to the previous Pixar efforts. Looking at the teasers released thusfar, I agree with him. You may be right, however, since it is really the only true family film during that key timeframe in June when schools let out, but if the storyline is "blah" as I'm told, this could fade away quickly after a huge opening. Of course, I have been wrong before, and above all what I'm interested in is the *quality* of the film, not the box office take (the two aren't always related). If the movie ends up making more than "Incredibles" as you say, but sucks something awful, who cares really? Posted Image

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#16 of 2056 OFFLINE   Patrick Sun

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Posted December 31 2005 - 01:29 PM

I counted roughly 35 films that I'll see from Terry's list.
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#17 of 2056 OFFLINE   ChrisBEA



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Posted December 31 2005 - 01:44 PM

Can't wait! Let's get this party started!

#18 of 2056 OFFLINE   Romier S

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Posted December 31 2005 - 02:11 PM

Very excited for several of those films. I'm most excited to see to see how Silent Hill turns out being a huge fan of the game series.

#19 of 2056 OFFLINE   Rakesh.S


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Posted December 31 2005 - 04:54 PM

May looks ridiculous MI 3 followed by Da Vinci Code followed by X3...are you kidding me? I think Da Vinci Code is going to stifle the success of MI3(huge opening weekend, and major dropoff after that) and X3(brett ratner directing, likely the last movie in the franchise).

#20 of 2056 OFFLINE   Tino


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Posted January 01 2006 - 12:44 AM

Posted Image
It's gonna be a hell of a ride. I'm ready. .

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