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Hurricane Wilma, here we go again and again......!!!!!!!!


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34 replies to this topic

#1 of 35 DaveJJ

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Posted October 18 2005 - 10:56 AM

Looks like Hurrican Wilma is on the rise!

http://abclocal.go.c....ews&id=3541274

#2 of 35 Craig S

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Posted October 18 2005 - 10:58 AM

Yup, probably headed to Florida. Again.

Stay safe out there, guys.

Three truths about movies, as noted by Roger Ebert:

 

* It's not what a movie is about, it's how it is about it.

* No good movie is too long, and no bad movie is short enough.

* No good movie is depressing, all bad movies are depressing.


#3 of 35 camila

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Posted October 18 2005 - 03:43 PM

When will the hurricanes stop!!

#4 of 35 James St

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Posted October 18 2005 - 10:38 PM

954 mb 80mph winds when I went to bed last night. Since then Wilma has exploded to 884 mb and 175mph winds.Posted Image

#5 of 35 Craig S

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Posted October 19 2005 - 12:32 AM

Holy crap! I get up and Wilma became a Cat 5 overnight, and is the most intense storm EVER in the Atlantic basin. According to Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground:

Quote:
The eye of Wilma during this round of intense deepening oscillated between 2 and 4 nautical miles, and the area of hurricane force winds only covered an area up to 15 miles from the center. This is an incredibly compact, amazingly intense hurricane, the likes of which has never been seen.
Three of the top 5 most intense Atlantic storms in history occurred this year (Katrina, Rita, and now Wilma). Hopefully this one will weaken considerably before it hits land.

Dr. Masters also says:

Quote:
We're living history this year, everybody, this is a once-in-a-lifetime hurricane season.
Let's hope he's right about the once-in-a-lifetime part.

Three truths about movies, as noted by Roger Ebert:

 

* It's not what a movie is about, it's how it is about it.

* No good movie is too long, and no bad movie is short enough.

* No good movie is depressing, all bad movies are depressing.


#6 of 35 Jerry Almeida

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Posted October 19 2005 - 01:52 AM

I work for a hospital in Tampa that happen's to be on an island.
Needless to say we get to start all of our preliminary preparations, but it's still too early to tell.

We'll know more in a day or so.
Everybody relax, I'm here. -Jack Burton

#7 of 35 Anthony Moore

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Posted October 19 2005 - 03:01 AM

I live in Sarasota, about 40 miles south of Tampa. We are definately keeping a close eye on this one.

Problem is, even with this track they have it on, there's no way they can predict exactly what city it will hit until hours before it actually does hit land.

Last year we had Charley that was headaed straight for us (sarasota,) and it made a last minute turn about an hour before it was suposed to make landfall and hit Port Charlotte instead. Some of my friends went to Port Charlotte for cover; And we barely got a drop of rain!

So we will take the necessary precautions, but I never get my hopes up, or get too worried until it gets really close.
Anthony Moore

#8 of 35 Joseph DeMartino

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Posted October 19 2005 - 04:04 AM

Quote:
When will the hurricanes stop!!


November 30th or thereabouts. Posted Image

After last year let's just say, I'm pretty much ready all the time. But after seeing some of the major post-Katrina problems in New Orleans (hard to believe that was the same storm that brushed us as a relatively benign category 1) I'll probably budget for a few extras between the end of this year's season and the start of next year's (on June 1st.) I've been trying for a year to get my condo association to give me a recommendation/list of permitted hurricane shutters, and they still haven't answered, so once the season is past I'm just getting some and if they want to bitch after the fact I've got the e-mails, copies of my letters and the return receipts to show that I made every reasonable effort to get their guidance. And while I'm well inland and have never had to evacuate, I'm going to put together a more extensive car kit just in case I have to live for a couple of days along the side of some highway waiting for gas and/or rescue. Posted Image

Meanwhile I'm looking forward to a seriously spoiled weekend and an unknown amount of work/life disruption.

Is it December yet? Posted Image

Joe

#9 of 35 DaveJJ

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Posted October 19 2005 - 04:18 AM

Here is the latest satellite images. This is the twentieth hurrican of the season. Ths season end 11/30.


http://cimss.ssec.wi..../g8wvjava.html

#10 of 35 Craig S

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Posted October 19 2005 - 04:53 AM

It's not that impressive on satellite, probably because the eye is so small.

Three truths about movies, as noted by Roger Ebert:

 

* It's not what a movie is about, it's how it is about it.

* No good movie is too long, and no bad movie is short enough.

* No good movie is depressing, all bad movies are depressing.


#11 of 35 Joseph DeMartino

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Posted October 19 2005 - 07:10 AM

Quote:
It's not that impressive on satellite, probably because the eye is so small.


That's a water vapor image, which wouldn't show the eye very clearly, and it is from an altitude that would make the eye harder to see in any event.

Here's a visible light loop

And a still that's easier to see:

Posted Image

That small, well-defined and tight eye is one of the things that marks this as a very powerful (and potentially very nasty) storm. Impressive enough as far as I'm concerned, especially in the visible light imagery.

Regards,

Joe

#12 of 35 SarahG

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Posted October 19 2005 - 07:10 AM

You don't think so? I thought it looked impressively nasty on satellite. Keeping my fingers crossed though.
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#13 of 35 nolesrule

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Posted October 19 2005 - 09:22 AM

Well, I know it's too early for any real predictions, but the extended forecast track has slipped a little farther south. The centerline of the track used to pass north of Lake Okeechobee. It is now on the southern side.

Just making an observation. I know better than to think it's etched in stone. Like Jerry and Anthony, I was also in the predicted path of Charley. Those of us in the Tampa Bay area were damn lucky last year. with all those near-misses.

EDIT: Reading the Forecast Discussion, it seems the model predictions are starting to disagree in major ways. The NHC seems to be losing confidence in the forecast track. That's not a good thing.

Quote:
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.


#14 of 35 nolesrule

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Posted October 19 2005 - 09:51 AM

The local ABC station just showed the "spaghetti model", which shows the projected strings of all the hurricane prediction computer models. A couple of the traditionally more reliable models have it going into the Yucatan and then back out into the Caribbean. 6 hours ago, those same models had it up near New England 5 days from now. That's what the forecast discussion was referring to. So there is the possibility that it might not even come near Florida now.

The majority of models still have it going through south Florida, so who knows what could happen. It'll be interesting to see what the 11pm and 5am tracks are adjusted to.

#15 of 35 Malcolm R

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Posted October 19 2005 - 10:46 AM

October hurricanes are notoriously hard to forecast.

Past October Hurricanes Iris and Mitch were both forecast to recurve to the northwest, then north, then northeast, but both did essentially the opposite with Iris maintaining her westward track across the Yucatan, the Gulf, then again into Mexico, and Mitch sinking southwest, then south into Honduras where it killed over 10,000 people.
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#16 of 35 Craig S

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Posted October 19 2005 - 12:21 PM

Quote:
You don't think so? I thought it looked impressively nasty on satellite. Keeping my fingers crossed though.
My bad - I was referring to the link posted above my post, which as Joseph pointed out was not satellite but water vapor. The satellite images are pretty scary.

Three truths about movies, as noted by Roger Ebert:

 

* It's not what a movie is about, it's how it is about it.

* No good movie is too long, and no bad movie is short enough.

* No good movie is depressing, all bad movies are depressing.


#17 of 35 Garrett Lundy

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Posted October 19 2005 - 12:57 PM

Goddamned I wish I had a modular home dealership in Florida this year. I could have sold the same unit to people 5 times!
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#18 of 35 JeremyErwin

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Posted October 19 2005 - 01:04 PM

Quote:
BUT IF WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED
Why does "Forecaster Franklin" refer to left and right instead of west and east?

#19 of 35 Brian Perry

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Posted October 20 2005 - 12:43 PM

Quote:
Three of the top 5 most intense Atlantic storms in history occurred this year (Katrina, Rita, and now Wilma).

More accurately, recorded history. There have undoubtedly been hurricanes just as powerful as these, it's just that satellite imagery and advanced reconaissance planes have enabled the hurricane hunters to get closer to the eye than they were able to in the past.

#20 of 35 Malcolm R

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Posted October 20 2005 - 02:51 PM

More accurately, recorded history. There have undoubtedly been hurricanes just as powerful as these, it's just that satellite imagery and advanced reconaissance planes have enabled the hurricane hunters to get closer to the eye than they were able to in the past.
That's why I'm skeptical that they keep saying this year "ties with 1933" as the most cyclones ever. Before satellites, there's no possible way they could know every storm that formed.

Would the US NWS have known (or cared?) about a "Vince" in 1933? If there were 21 "known" storms in 1933, it's likely there were several more they missed. It's also likely there were other years that had 16 or 18 storms, but the NWS missed a few that might have made those years the "most" ever.

This is why I scoff when they claim to have "accurate" records of hurricanes back to 1887. How can that possibly be true? Was there really enough shipping traffic criss-crossing every part of the tropical Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf in every year from the 1880's to the advent of satellites in the 1960's to be 100% sure NO storms were ever, ever missed?

I also think the NHC is far too quick to slap a name on every little puff of swirling clouds these days, inflating the numbers, but that's another rant. Posted Image
The purpose of an education is to replace an empty mind with an open mind.


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