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Oscar Watch 2005 - pre-awards discussion


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#1 of 336 OFFLINE   Adam_S

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Posted August 31 2005 - 12:33 PM

Perhaps it's a little early to be discussing this year's oscars, but the first serious contender, The Constant Gardener, was released today. And a new trailer just came out of nowhere that is every bit as exciting as the trailer for Million Dollar Baby was last year, Good Night and Good Luck. So in my mind the Oscar season officially started today.


CONTENDERS: (percentages as of Sept. 25
Pre-Fall releases
Sin City (crafts/technicals) - 78% fresh
Charlie and the Chocolate factory (crafts)
2046 - 85% fresh
Batman Begins (Technicals) 83% fresh
Cinderella Man (crafts) 83% fresh
The Constant Gardener - 81% fresh
Crash (actors, screenplay)
Hustle and Flow (actor)
Revenge of the Sith (technicals)

September releases:
Capote - 50% rotten
Corpse Bride (songs, animated) 85% fresh
Everything is Illuminated - 60% fresh
Flightplan (actress, screenplay)
A History of Violence - 82% fresh
Oliver Twist - 56% fresh
Prize Winner of Defiance Ohio (actress)
Serenity (technicals)


October Releases:
Elizabethtown
Good Night and Good Luck - 93% fresh
In Her Shoes - 100% fresh (five reviews)
Mask of Zorro (technicals)
North Country
Paradise now (script)
Shopgirl
Wallace and Gommit: Curse of the Were Rabbit (animated)
Weatherman

November Releases:
Bee Season
Breakfast on Pluto
Chicken Little (animated)
Family Stone
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (tecnicals)
Ice Harvest (script)
Jarhead
Pride and Prejudice
Rent
Syriana
Walk the Line
White Countess

December Releases:
All the King's Men
Ask the Dust
Brokeback Mountain
Casanova
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Match Point
Memoirs of a Geisha
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Munich
The New World
The Producers
Rumor Has It
 

#2 of 336 OFFLINE   Holadem

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Posted August 31 2005 - 03:02 PM

Quote:
Perhaps it's a little early to be discussing this year's oscars, [...]
It seems every such thread in teh last couple of years has begun with a similar phrase Posted Image.

Quote:
And a new trailer just came out of nowhere that is every bit as exciting as the trailer for Million Dollar Baby was last year, Good Night and Good Luck.
M$B's trailer was exciting?! Perhaps you're being sarcastic? The sound doesn't work right now on my PC so I could only watch a silent Good Night and Good Luck trailer, but it looks far more interesting than M$B did last year.

That's a pretty good list of potential good movies, the last third of the year should be interesting.

--
H

#3 of 336 OFFLINE   Bryan Ri

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Posted August 31 2005 - 03:53 PM

Quote:
but the first serious contender, The Constant Gardener, was released today.


I'd say at the very least Cinderella Man and Crash are also serious contenders.

A case can even be made for Batman Begins.

And that trailer is great for Good Night, and Good Luck. Thanks for sharing!

#4 of 336 OFFLINE   Adam_S

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Posted August 31 2005 - 06:14 PM

I found the trailer for Million Dollar Baby to be utterly wonderful. I sat there watching it thinking, "this could possibly beat Aviator." I loved the trailer and it psyched me up for the film and oscar season, this trailer did the same for me.

Currently my pick to walk off with this year's oscar is Good Night and Good Luck, I can't imagine something appealing more to the acadamy's constituency. I'd say a cinematography nomination is already in the bag. Though seeing how the films play out as they get trailers and screenings and rants and raves will be fun.

I don't really expect Cinderella Man to garner much, but with a Seabiscuit approach it might, Batman Begins will probably be the sole strong summer contender in the technicals (running against King Kong and Narnia). Crash is definitely in the running for script and actorly awards, as would be Hustle and Flow if anyone had seen that film.

I think there are three december front runners that are still big question marks, The Producers, Geisha and Munich.
 

#5 of 336 OFFLINE   Brett_M

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Posted September 01 2005 - 01:19 AM

I would bet that Revenge of the Sith will be nominated and win the awards for VFX and SFX at least.

The editing and music were excellent, too. Jimmy Smits will in Best Supporting Actor, too. (just kidding)
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#6 of 336 OFFLINE   Joel C

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Posted September 01 2005 - 11:55 AM

Does anyone think Oldboy has a chance at anything? I know it came out in Korea in 2003, but it can be eligible here for awards, like City of God, right?
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#7 of 336 OFFLINE   Ray H

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Posted September 01 2005 - 01:58 PM

I want Ralph Fiennes to win Best Actor.

And I want to see Woody Allen make a comeback and get nominated for screeplay, direction, etc. Posted Image
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#8 of 336 OFFLINE   Lou Sytsma

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Posted September 01 2005 - 02:01 PM

Quote:
I would bet that Revenge of the Sith will be nominated and win the awards for VFX and SFX at least.
Let's wait for Potter, Narnia, and Kong among others before making such a proclamation.
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#9 of 336 OFFLINE   Adam_S

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Posted September 01 2005 - 06:29 PM

doh I completely forgot about Sith when putting together that list. Yeah it's just as legitimate a candidate for techs, and probably strong in Score as well.

Oldboy doesn't have the reputation that City of God built for itself. And Sympathy for Mr Vengeance is equally eligable, and the superior film to build a City of God campaign on, but my guess is that it's far too late in the season for either film. They need all spring of being the word of mouth 'must see' film within the industry (the year of City of God, the film was talked about incessantly from before the oscar noms it missed (for foreign film) up til the oscar noms it got (the next year). In Hollywood that year many many conversations began, 'did you see City of God, it's so amazing!' Hasn't happened with either of Chun Wook Park's films.
 

#10 of 336 OFFLINE   Adam_S

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Posted September 01 2005 - 08:13 PM

here's my thoughts for best picture nom predictions as of now (no trailer zone for most) This will undoubtedly change but this is what I'm thinking as of now.

Good Night and Good Luck
Walk the Line
Rent
The New World
The Chronicles of Narnia the Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe.

Clearly I'm leaving off the big three december releases. but I don't think the Producers will make this fall's season, I keep expecting, just a hunch based on the many problems with the film so far. Munich and Geisha I can see being easily shut out, possibly because of a late release date and possibly because Geisha looks most likely to go belly up. Rent and Narnia both look likely to easily stride past 200 million AND appeal to the Academy. The New World gets a nomination because it's in 70mm and Terrence Malick--unless Colin Ferrell is really awful which could prevent a nom. Walk the Line looks really damn good, and again, a very appealing movie. I'd go out on a limb and say I think Good Night and Good Luck is the current front runner for best picture.
 

#11 of 336 OFFLINE   Elizabeth_S

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Posted September 02 2005 - 01:33 AM

Cinderella Man definitely has a good shot at some awards

#12 of 336 OFFLINE   Quentin

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Posted September 02 2005 - 04:49 AM

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say NONE of your picks make it Adam. Yikes! Posted Image

New World can't...it has been moved to 2006.

Rent will suffer from Columbus haters (and, he could ruin it). I have seen Good Night. It is solid, but not BP material. Walk the Line will suffer Ray backlash. And, I hope you're right about Narnia. I'd LOVE for that film to be of that high quality. But...I haven't heard any buzz to that effect. Have you?

#13 of 336 OFFLINE   Quentin

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Posted September 02 2005 - 04:51 AM

In fairness, I should make picks...though, I hate to do it this early:

Elizabethtown
Oliver Twist
The Producers
All the King's Men
The Constant Gardener

#14 of 336 OFFLINE   ThomasC

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Posted September 02 2005 - 04:51 AM

Quote:
New World can't...it has been moved to 2006.
No, it'll open in NY and LA on Christmas Day, and everyone else will get it on January 13.

#15 of 336 OFFLINE   Quentin

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Posted September 02 2005 - 05:18 AM

Oh...I didn't think it was getting any 2005 opening. That certainly changes things.

#16 of 336 OFFLINE   TerryRL

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Posted September 02 2005 - 05:53 AM

I've heard the most pre-release Oscar hype for these eleven films in terms of Best Picture...

"All the King's Men"
Cast includes Sean Penn, Jude Law, Patricia Clarkson, Kate Winslet, Kathy Baker, James Gandolfini, Mark Ruffalo, and Sir Anthony Hopkins. Oscar-winning scribe Steve Zallian ("Schindler's List") is at the helm.

"Capote"
Phillip Seymor Hoffman is already seen as a lock to get a Best Actor nod for this one (some already consider him the favorite to win). Clifton Collins Jr. is also said to give a powerhouse supporting performance in the film as convicted (and executed) murderer Perry Smith. Catherine Keener will also get a strong push for Best Supporting Actress.

"The Constant Gardener"
Ralph Fiennes is going to get a strong push for Best Actor, while Rachel Weisz is garnering decent Best Supporting Actress talk. A Best Adapted Screenplay nod could also be in store for this one.

"Elizabethtown"
Oscar-winner Cameron Crowe (Best Original Screenplay for "Almost Famous") could earn his second Best Director nod (the first being for "Jerry Maguire") if "Elizabethtown" finds an audience. Judy Greer may end up with her first nomination in the Best Supporting Actress category.

"Good Night, and Good Luck"
George Clooney could end up a double-nominee this year for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay for 'Good Night'. David Strathaim's performance as Edward R. Murrow could earn him his first Best Actor nomination.

"Jarhead"
Oscar-winner Sam Mendes (Best Director "American Beauty") returns with this film focusing on the Gulf War. Jake Gyllenhaal and Jamie Foxx are said to give solid performances, but Peter Sarsgaard is said to be the film's real standout.

"Memoirs of a Geisha"
Director Rob Marshall's film is already garnering notices for stars Zhang Ziyi, Ken Watanabe, and Michelle Yeoh. Big things are expected from this one.

"Munich"
If there is a lock for a Best Picture nod, it would have to be for three-time Oscar winner Steven Spielberg's "Munich". Most within the industry thinks that this one will garner several nods.

"The New World"
Terry Malick could be tough to beat if this one is received well.

"The Producers"
The studio is hoping this will turn out to be this year's "Chicago". Mel Brooks already won an Oscar for writing this one back in 1968. Stars Nathan Lane, Matthew Broderick, and Uma Thurman are all hoping to hear their names called when the nominations are announced.

"Walk the Line"
Both Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon are considered early locks for nods in the Best Actor and Best Actress categories. The only thing hurting this film is actually last year's "Ray". Will the Academy award the Best Actor trophy to actors playing legendary musicians in back to back years?

Films like "Crash" and "Cinderella Man" (despite being labeled a "disappointment") are also generating strong Oscar buzz. Tim Burton could earn his first Oscar should "The Corpse Bride" win for Best Animated Feature Film. Cameron Diaz will get a strong push for Best Actress for "In Her Shoes", while both Toni Collette and Shirley MacLaine are both getting notices for their supporting work in that film.

Despite the fact that the film was released early in the year, Joan Allen is still a strong contender for "The Upside of Anger". Past Best Actress winners Charlize Theron ("Monster") and Frances McDormand ("Fargo") are generating buzz for their performances in "North Country", while Amy Adams is considered a strong candidate for her supporting work in "Junebug".

I'm hoping David Cronenberg's "A History of Violence" emerges as a serious contender. The same goes for Bill Murray in "Broken Flowers", Don Cheadle and Matt Dillon in "Crash", Terrence Howard in "Hustle & Flow", and Paul Giamatti in "Cinderella Man".

The Documentary category will likely come down between "March of the Penguins" and "Grizzly Man". 'Revenge of the Sith' will battle it out in the technical categories (Makeup, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects) with films like "Batman Begins", 'The Chronicles of Narnia', "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire", "King Kong", and "War of the Worlds".

Despite being a "down" year at the box office, 2005 will still produce some very strong contenders for the Oscars.
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#17 of 336 OFFLINE   ThomasC

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Posted September 02 2005 - 05:56 AM

Quote:
Don Cheadle and Matt Damon in "Crash"
Dillon, Damon, whatever. Posted Image

#18 of 336 OFFLINE   TerryRL

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Posted September 02 2005 - 06:03 AM

:b

Oops, my bad.
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#19 of 336 OFFLINE   Brook K

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Posted September 02 2005 - 08:01 AM

I hope Grizzly Man gets a nom but I doubt it will win over the penguins or possibly Murderball. Penguins has the BO success and Murderball had a big media push and buzz.
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#20 of 336 OFFLINE   Adam_S

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Posted September 02 2005 - 08:43 PM

I myself wouldn't be surprised if none of my early picks don't make it. I just noticed thatthey all currently have trailers too, I guess I was sorta limiting my picks to what I'd seen. Mainly those are based on the ever faulty gut accompanied with buzz I've heard. I know Columbus will not get his best director nomination for Rent, the press will see to that, but I figure he'll eventually pull one in during the next few years. Rent looks much more likely to work than Phantom. I've no prejudices from the play, so whatever time changes are made aren't going to bug me.

if Walk the Line is a great movie then it will probably get nominated, if it's not up to snuff it won't. I think that it is probably the most likely of my current picks to actually get a nomination.

I hadn't heard about New World's delay, when was that announced?

I'd be a very very happy person if Elizabethtown is nominated.
 


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