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2005 Fantasy Football advice


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#1 of 193 OFFLINE   Scott Merryfield

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Posted August 08 2005 - 04:11 AM

In order to keep the fantasy football discussion out of the NFL 2005-06 discussion thread, please use this thread for general discussions on fantasy football for the 2005 season.

#2 of 193 OFFLINE   Scott Merryfield

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Posted August 08 2005 - 04:20 AM

My money league doesn't draft until September 1st, but I've been doing my research for a few weeks now. I draft #3 and will have to choose between Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander (LT and Manning will go 1-2). I had Alexander last season, but I'm leaning towards Priest. It will mean spending a 5th round pick on Larry Johnson, but I hate to pass up the numbers produced by RB's in the Chiefs offense.

I'm in a 2nd keeper league, too, where we can keep 5 players each season (there is also a salary cap). I have to pick my keepers today, and here's my choices right now, along with their salaries if I keep them:

QB Trent Green $20
QB Byron Leftwich $10
RB Jamal Lewis $19
RB Edge $15
WR Keary Colbert $7

I also have Lee Evans and Charles Rogers, who are $7 each to keep (my receivers sucked in this league). I only kept Colbert because (1) Evans has an inexperienced QB, and (2) Rogers hasn't proven he can stay healthy. Trent Green is expensive, but he'll give me a solid starting QB while I wait to see if Leftwich develops into something. If I stay with this strategy, I will use my 1st round pick (4th overall) on the best receiver available.

Opinions?

#3 of 193 OFFLINE   Quentin

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Posted August 08 2005 - 05:54 AM

Alexander's new contract states that he is an unrestricted free agent next season. I think he'll be gunning for big bucks, and he is clearly the #1 weapon on the Hawks (even if Holmgren is too stupid to think so). I'd go with him.

Your keepers look fine. Jamal Lewis should be huge this year.

#4 of 193 OFFLINE   Scott Merryfield

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Posted August 08 2005 - 11:52 PM

Quote:
Jamal Lewis should be huge this year.

I hope so, since I just traded for him a week ago. I gave the other owner Ahman Green and we swapped 3rd round draft picks (I moved down 6 spots). Lewis was $3 cheaper than Green, and I think he has a bigger upside.

#5 of 193 OFFLINE   Mark Dill

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Posted August 09 2005 - 07:58 AM

Definitely a very good move. The Packers look like they are going to struggle this year with a weaker O-line and no improvement on D. Lewis should be much better than Green in 05.

For your keepers, I like Evans a lot more than Colbert. Evans really came on strong at the end of last year, so he is looking like the #1 big play guy in Buffalo and Losman is supposed to be looking pretty good. Colbert will definitely be #2 to Steve Smith, who I expect to have a really good comeback year.

I like Priest over Alexander too, but I don't think you necessarily have to use your #5 pick on LJ. If you take a TE or QB before round 5 and then you take LJ with your 5th pick you are gonna have a big fat hole in your lineup at one of your starting WR or RB spots. If you don't take any TE/QB and none of them are jumping out at you at your 5.03 spot (Green, Bulger, Gonzales, Gates are all gone) then go ahead and grab LJ. But personally, I am targeting Priest in the 1st round and LJ in the 6th. If your league is 12 people or more, and they are very aggressive about snapping up RB's early, then you might not get him. But in most mock drafts I've seen, you can still get him late in the 6th round.

#6 of 193 OFFLINE   Scott Merryfield

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Posted August 09 2005 - 08:20 AM

Quote:
If you take a TE or QB before round 5 and then you take LJ with your 5th pick you are gonna have a big fat hole in your lineup at one of your starting WR or RB spots. If you don't take any TE/QB and none of them are jumping out at you at your 5.03 spot (Green, Bulger, Gonzales, Gates are all gone) then go ahead and grab LJ.

In my money league, good starting QB's can be had in the 7th and 8th rounds (I've grabbed Brady and Trent Green the past two years), so I'm not worried there. As for TE, we have too many TE whores who grab them very early, so I usually end up with a lousy TE. I refuse to get sucked up into a TE run in the 4th round and wait until late in the draft to fill this spot, hoping to get a sleeper. I've been able to do that a few times, getting Randy McMichael and Daniel Graham for their good years. I just missed out on Gates last year. This year I'm thinking of Chris Cooley, Ben Troupe, LJ Smith or Heath Miller.

If I wait until the 6th round to grab Larry Johnson, it would be a late 6th round choice (we use a serpentine format, so I'll pick 3rd in the odd rounds and 10th in the even ones). A couple of guys picking in front of me in that round have been known to go after premiere backup RBs early, and LJ is this year's prize. That means I would have to use a 5th round pick on LJ to make sure I get him as Priest's handcuff. If I was luck enough for him to fall to me in the 6th, though, he will probably still be there in the 7th, too, since the two guys drafting before me probably wouldn't take LJ.

When you make your draft strategy, you always need to take in account the tendencies of the other owners in your league.

#7 of 193 OFFLINE   Shane Martin

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Posted August 09 2005 - 08:37 AM

So who are the sleepers in the draft I should pay attention to?

#8 of 193 OFFLINE   Mark Dill

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Posted August 09 2005 - 09:13 AM

When you make your draft strategy, you always need to take in account the tendencies of the other owners in your league.


Good point. If I knew I had to use up my 5th pick on LJ, I would probably take Alexander over Priest.

I think LJ Smith is an excellent TE sleeper this year. Todd Pinkston is hurt, so Smith will probably be the #2 TD threat after TO. Speaking of that, TO is hurt too. Another TE I like a lot is Dallas Clark. You can probably get him in the 6th round and I think he is going to have a Gates-like year this year. No Pollard to split production with anymore.

Other sleepers I like:

Julius Jones - I've seen him go mid/late 2nd round. Dallas is going to rely on a power running game this year. He will be a top 10 RB.

DeShaun Foster - He is going in late 4th early 5th round, but he could be a solid #2 RB

Travis Henry - Chris Brown is made of glass. He and Henry will split carries for a while, but Henry will be the man by mid-season. Titans will not be a good team though, so don't get too excited.

Michael Vick - how can Vick be a sleeper? He had a bad first half last year but his 2nd half was very solid. He has been going in the 6th/7th round. He is better than that.

Brian Griese - looked good last year. Being drafted very late, he would be a good backup QB.

Hines Ward - he will play and without Burress to steal TD's he will be very productive.

Steve Smith - looks to have his gamebreaking speed back, Carolina will use him a lot for his YAC potential

Eddie Kennison - he is finally the unquestioned #1 in the Chiefs offense. For many years he has shared this spot with Johnnie Morton and still put up respectable numbers. I expect better this year.

Plaxico Burress - for some reason he is being drafted low. He is the #1 guy for the Giants in the red zone.

Donte Stallworth - he has fallen out of favor after some disappointing years, but he will be more productive than most of the guys drafted around him.

Kevin Curtis - will be a solid #3 WR in the Rams offense this year. Maybe not quite as productive as Stokley was last year, but I expect 7 TD's or so.

Chicago defense - yeah you heard me.

#9 of 193 OFFLINE   Scott Merryfield

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Posted August 09 2005 - 09:35 AM

I like most of your sleepers, Mark, with a few exceptions:

Michael Vick - most overrated fantasy football player, IMO. He usually gets drafted 3rd or 4th round and puts up numbers worse than QB's going 4 rounds later.

Plaxico Burress -- I've never cared for him, and I want to see if Eli Manning is the real deal before investing a draft pick in him.

Donte Stallworth -- he can't stay healthy. The guy pulls some muscle every year.

I really like your choices on Griese, Ward, Foster and Steve Smith, though. I'm hoping to grab Griese as my 2nd QB. Ward will drop on some draft lists due to his holdout, but the guy puts up consistent numbers every year.

If Julius Jones lasted until the late 2nd round, I would do a happy dance and grab him at 2.10. He helped turn around a bad start for me last season. I do not see him being there with my 2nd round pick, though.

I may take Priest and roll the dice on the Larry Johnson thing, taking a chance he will be there in rounds 6 or 7. I still have a few weeks to make up my mind.

#10 of 193 OFFLINE   Shane Martin

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Posted August 09 2005 - 09:44 AM

A few comments:

Julius Jones: won't last thru the first round here. I expect him to be gone on most draft boards by the early 2nd round. Depending on where I draft I'll take him.

Michael Vick: Not a sleeper in my group. Was drafted early first round on one draft and early 3rd on the other. Personally I wouldn't use any pick on this guy.

JJ Arrington is the only guy that stands out. Last I looked they have a good line and 2 decent receivers. He should do well in Arizona.

#11 of 193 OFFLINE   Mark Dill

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Posted August 09 2005 - 03:48 PM

Agree Vick is not worth a 3rd or 4th round pick, but if he is available in the 5th I will take him. I made the superbowl last year with Vick at QB. I traded for him midseason when he was stinking up the joint.

#12 of 193 OFFLINE   Scott Merryfield

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Posted August 10 2005 - 12:01 AM

Shane, I like JJ Arrington the most of all the rookie running backs this year. He's in the best situation to succeed right away. Benson and Brown are holding out, Benson will share carries with Thomas Jones, Brown plays behind a bad offensive line (and there's the Ricky Williams factor, which doesn't concern me though), and Carnell Williams plays in a crowded backfield.

Meanwhile, Arrington is being handed the starting job on a silver platter. Marcel Shipp is hurt (again), and the rest of the Cardinals RB's stink.

If you are looking for a very late round flyer on a rookie RB, Shelton from Carolina is worth a late round gamble.

Quote:
Agree Vick is not worth a 3rd or 4th round pick, but if he is available in the 5th I will take him.

In the 5th round I could have my pick of any QB except Manning, Culpepper, McNabb and probably either Green or Bulgar. There are a lot of other QB's I would take there before Vick. On my current rankings sheet from a tool I use on draft day, Vick is ranked 18th at QB, yet his average draft position is 6.03. I will probably bump him up a few slots, but he'll never make the top 12 (i.e. starter) on my list.

BTW, Julius Jones's ADP is 2.02, so the chances of him falling to the late 2nd round are slim.

#13 of 193 OFFLINE   Scott Merryfield

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Posted August 13 2005 - 02:03 AM

Time to downgrade all Chicago Bears offensive players on your draft lists. Rex Grossman is out at least half the season with a broken ankle. Thomas Jones did not perform nearly as well after Grossman went out last season, and there's no one to throw the ball to Muhammad now.

I plan on avoiding all offensive players from San Fran, Cleveland and Chicago.

#14 of 193 OFFLINE   Shane Martin

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Posted August 19 2005 - 07:22 AM

Where is the best printable ranking list of the players?

I've got a draft on Monday. This was a last minute type deal so I'm unprepared.

#15 of 193 OFFLINE   Scott Merryfield

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Posted August 19 2005 - 08:08 AM

Check out www.fftoday.com. They have free online stats projections, and also sell a very useful Excel spreadsheet tool that I've used the past few seasons during my live drafts. Unfortunately, you missed the "early bird" pricing of $10.95 -- I think the price now is $14.95. Their projections are very good, and they also show the average draft positions for players, which I find very valuable.

#16 of 193 OFFLINE   Shane Martin

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Posted August 19 2005 - 08:26 AM

Thanks Scott.
They had a rankings list that I printed off. I just needed a reference tool to look at while I live drift.

I don't need the projections or anything of the sort.

#17 of 193 OFFLINE   Alex-C

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Posted August 19 2005 - 11:17 AM

Quote:
Plaxico Burress - for some reason he is being drafted low. He is the #1 guy for the Giants in the red zone

I'd wait and see if Eli can put up the numbers before investing in this combo.

for those of you like me who had Tiki last year, it was nice, until Eli took over and they struggled big time and Tiki's numbers started to falter.

Anyway, I ignorantly blamed Eli for this.
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#18 of 193 OFFLINE   Scott Merryfield

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Posted August 23 2005 - 07:45 AM

We've almost completed our slow draft in our 5 player keeper league that we are turning into a dynasty league this season. I have a couple of slots I can still fill before I run out of salary cap money, but here's what my team looks like:

QB: Trent Green, Leftwich
RB: Edge, Jamal Lewis, DeShaun Foster, Mike Anderson, Cedric Benson
WR: Joe Horn, Jerry Porter, Chris Chambers, Greg Lewis, Braylon Edwards, Keary Colbert

I won't bore you with the kicker and defensive players. Posted Image My receivers from last year stunk, so I pretty much started from scratch there, only keeping Colbert (his salary cap number was low). I plan on grabbing one more young RB (Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Moats or Chris Perry) and another young QB (Charlie Frye or David Garrard) with two of my last three picks -- the other one needs to be a defensive player to fill out my starting lineup.

We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR and 3 offensive flex (RB/WR), so I should be okay if either Chambers or Porter has a decent season. If Foster is healthy and Anderson wins the starting job in Denver, I should have a strong RB group.

The draft in my main money (re-draft) league is next week. I am still contemplating my first round pick (3rd overall), with the choice being between Shaun Alexander and Priest Holmes. LT and Manning will most likely be the first two picks.

#19 of 193 OFFLINE   Shane Martin

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Posted August 23 2005 - 10:40 AM

We had our church league draft last night. I think I did ok for drafting second. Qb's were going left and right so when I decided to get a QB, it was almost too late. I mean JP Losman went pick #7 Posted Image Posted Image

Here is how I did. Feel free to judge it.
We have to start the following:
QB
RB
RB/WR
WR
WR
K
D
TE


My draft went like this(listed in order by round drafted). The whole draft(14 teams, 16 rounds) lasted 3 hrs. Not too bad for a live draft.

Tomlinson
Jamal Lewis
Carson Palmer
Brian Westbrook
Hines Ward
Isaac Bruce
David Carr
LJ Smith
Carolina -D
Aaron Elling - K -Minn - the kickers went fast Posted Image
Colbert
Minnesota D
Josh Brown - Backup kicker due to them charging to waiver pickups and trades
Mark Campbell - TE - Buffalo
Trent Dilfer
Charles Rogers

The league is focused point wise with 1 pt for every 10 yards rushing so I grabbed the top running back on the board for the first 2 rounds.

I need to find out if Elling will be the kicker of Minnesota or if Edinger will win the job. Minnesotas website was no help.

#20 of 193 OFFLINE   Scott Merryfield

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Posted August 23 2005 - 02:01 PM

I like your RB group, Shane, but the receivers are a little weak, although Ward and Bruce should give you enough points paired with those running backs. You should be okay with Palmer as your starting QB. If Rogers and Colbert have breakout years, though, you'll have a deep team.

Quote:
the kickers went fast

We have a couple of guys who take kickers early, too, and I never understood it. Heck, in the dynasty league I mentioned in my last post, a guy spent his last salary cap dollars on a 2nd kicker, and ran out of money several rounds before anyone else. His mistake is my gain, though.


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