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The Roulette Wheel (probability) question


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#61 of 76 OFFLINE   Mark_vdH

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Posted February 12 2005 - 02:32 PM

Quote:
It cannot be predicted.

http://news.bbc.co.u...ews/4069629.stm

And, more detailed:

http://www.gamblingg....Scam24041.html


Quote:
Sorry to be dense, but...

Which theory does this shoot down?

How can you tell the last 14 rolls were all the same color? In that picture it looks to me like there were a couple of greens in there. I don't see 14 of one color in a row.
I guess it refers to the strategy from the original poster.

While the 14 rolls weren't the same color, playing black for 14 rolls in a row (and each time doubling the bet) would have lost the better a lot of money....

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#62 of 76 OFFLINE   Greg*go

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Posted February 12 2005 - 03:27 PM

Quote:
How can you tell the last 14 rolls were all the same color? In that picture it looks to me like there were a couple of greens in there. I don't see 14 of one color in a row.

Sorry George. It wasn't 14 of the color in a row, it was 14 rolls in a row without a red turning up. The colors on the left side of the board are black, and the colors on the right side are red. And yes, it shoots down the original posters theory.

If you look at my last pic, you'll see the last 14 numbers were:
35, 13, 11, 8, 4, 10, 0, 11, 10, 8, 28, 35, 33, 00. Then look at this pic, and you'll notice that none of them are red:

Posted Image
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#63 of 76 OFFLINE   george kaplan

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Posted February 12 2005 - 05:52 PM

Thanks for the clarification. Posted Image
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#64 of 76 OFFLINE   Lew Crippen

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Posted February 13 2005 - 12:54 AM

Mark, thanks for the links—I read the BBC news article, but there was not sufficient information to understand how it all worked. I am having some real trouble getting that article from the gamblinggates site. The news page just won’t load.

The site does look as though it is intended to encourage gambling.
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#65 of 76 OFFLINE   Mark_vdH

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Posted February 13 2005 - 06:19 AM

Quote:
The site does look as though it is intended to encourage gambling.

Sorry about that. I'm in no way familiar with that site - I just searched for the news story with google and it came up...

From the article:

Quote:
The 32-year-old woman watched as the roulette ball settled on her selection then cashed in her Ritz chips for £100,000. The following evening the three returned to the Ritz casino’s roulette tables. This time they won £1.2m.

The Ritz's management suspected they were using a scanner inside a mobile phone which measured the speed of the ball as the croupier released it and calculated where the ball would settle.

The phone data was then beamed to a microcomputer, which ran through thousands of possible outcomes to forecast which section numbers the ball would land in. This data was flashed on to the screen of the phone just before the wheel made its third spin, by which time all bets must be placed.

Having reduced their odds of winning from 37-1 to 6-1, the trio placed bets on all six numbers in the section where the ball would likely end up.

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#66 of 76 OFFLINE   Cees Alons

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Posted February 13 2005 - 07:53 AM

Quote:
...which ran through thousands of possible outcomes to forecast which section numbers the ball would land in.
Sensational story - too sensational: Posted Image
(1) That's not the way a program predicting the course of a ball would work.
(2) There are exactly 37 (or 38) possible outcomes, not thousands.

Quote:
Having reduced their odds of winning from 37-1 to 6-1, the trio placed bets on all six numbers in the section where the ball would likely end up.
May look like the way to do it. But if you really have reduced the chance to 6:1, you only need to place a bet in one of the numbers to win enough already. The writer doesn't really understand roulette-statistics.

Real story, or made up?


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#67 of 76 OFFLINE   Mark_vdH

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Posted February 13 2005 - 12:14 PM

If this is a hoax it's an elaborate one, as the original arrest six months earlier was also reported:

http://www.nu.nl/new...p?n=296181&c=50
(03/22/04 - Sorry, Dutch only)

http://www.sundayherald.com/40874
(03/28/04 - with an alternate "evil eyes" theory)
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#68 of 76 OFFLINE   Patrick Sun

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Posted February 13 2005 - 01:16 PM

If anyone cares, next Friday night's episode of Monk will feature Monk in Las Vegas, should be fun to see how he does in Vegas. Posted Image
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#69 of 76 OFFLINE   Cees Alons

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Posted February 13 2005 - 06:53 PM

Mark,

Quote:
If this is a hoax it's an elaborate one, as the original arrest six months earlier was also reported:
I'm not sure about that article. It could be nothing but a translation of the original one, in which case it's not "additional information". I remember seeing that one, but I never saw a follow-up there, as should be expected from the content.

The subject is always interesting, though! Posted Image


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#70 of 76 OFFLINE   Lew Crippen

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Posted February 14 2005 - 01:57 AM

Not that I would suspect the august BBC Mark, but the article itself did not have enough information to be able to determine if this could really work. And the information provided made me suspicious that it really could.

Basically there is a lot more to consider than just the initial speed of the ball. The speed of the wheel much also be considered, as well as the exact position of the ball when it enters the wheel (among other things)

It is difficult to believe that the camera on a cell phone would have the resolution necessary to accurately take these measurements—besides which the digital scan of cell phones would almost for sure not be quick enough to determine speed.

Notice so far that we have not considered things like the effects of apparent height of the ball’s entry point (that is, how high or low it begins its journey in relation to the slots.

Basically there is no credible information as to how this works to be able to determine if it really could work. My very strong guess is, this is because it did not occur.

I do believe that some people were arrested. But given the information, there is no way to tell if they were arrested for the right reasons, or if their story was what actually happened.

A trial would most certaintly have brought out expert witnesses who would have challenged/verifired the scheme’s ability to actually work.

And if someone could actually do this with a cell phone and PC, you can bet that the ‘3 turn time allotted to place your bets’ would be altered as fast as the additional decks (and reshuffling) happened in blackjack when counting became verifiable.
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#71 of 76 OFFLINE   AjayM

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Posted February 14 2005 - 02:52 AM

They didn't use a camera phone, they used another device;

A laser scanner linked to a computer was allegedly used to gauge numbers likely to come up on the roulette wheel.

Quote:
Basically there is no credible information as to how this works to be able to determine if it really could work. My very strong guess is, this is because it did not occur.

So they were just incredibly lucky to win more than a million pounds? Posted Image

Take a look at - http://www.amazon.co....96728?v=glance

One part of the book details the physics of the roulette wheel and how a group of geeky students beat the wheel, way back in the 70's.

Also check out - http://c2000.cc.gate....ings/thorp.pdf which details some other examples.

This has been covered on Slashdot a couple of times;
http://games.slashdo....8&tid=1&tid=10

http://slashdot.org/.....shtml?tid=126

Another article on the Serb/Hungarians - http://www.newscient...le.ns?id=dn4815



#72 of 76 OFFLINE   Lew Crippen

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Posted February 14 2005 - 03:42 AM

Quote:
The Ritz's management suspected they were using a scanner inside a mobile phone which measured the speed of the ball as the croupier released it and calculated where the ball would settle.
Quote:
They didn't use a camera phone, they used another device;

A laser scanner linked to a computer was allegedly used to gauge numbers likely to come up on the roulette wheel.
I'm only using the available information, scant though it is. I'll check out your links as soon as I have a bit of time--hopefully they will provide more hard information that the articles have so far.
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#73 of 76 OFFLINE   AjayM

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Posted February 14 2005 - 03:55 AM

There is a difference between a camera and a laser measuring device Posted Image

None of the links I found (there are thousands of them on google) contained any information about what kind of technology was used for this serb/hungarian group, other than the above information. So I have no idea as to how "real" this story is, it could be legit or maybe there was more going on.

The links do talk about other devices used to sway roulette odds back into the players favor, most of them have been outlawed (at least in Vegas), but the point is that people have been coming up with devices for 30+ years now that can and do beat the "impossible" roulette wheel.

Andrew

#74 of 76 OFFLINE   AjayM

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Posted February 14 2005 - 04:20 AM

Another cool link;

http://nowscape.com/...roul/index.html

#75 of 76 OFFLINE   Brian Perry

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Posted February 14 2005 - 04:44 PM

Quote:
plus the given fact that a person is never allowed to place a bet after the ball is in motion

Actually, you are allowed to do that...after the ball has spun around about a dozen times, the dealer will wave his/her hand across the table, signifying no more bets.

As for craps, the Pass/Do Not Pass bets differ by what happens when you roll a 12 on the come-out. On the Pass line, you lose. On the Do Not Pass line, you push. Thus, the house retains its edge on either side.

#76 of 76 OFFLINE   jennqeller

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Posted October 29 2009 - 10:06 AM

The issue with roulette is that predicting the roulette is quite difficult and those who fall close to it and design systems around it have developed patterns, true or not are taking an element of risk that on could be offseted with the right betting system, and thas where all resides currently if you search arround the internet must systems dont do that so if you have found a system developed towards the betting proces post it here, an example of a couple of systems like that one here




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