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Hurricane Frances


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#1 of 93 Malcolm R

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Posted August 31 2004 - 03:39 AM

Just a reminder to our friends along the southeastern US coast and in the Bahamas that Cat. 4 Frances is approaching.

Current forecasts have it plowing through the islands Thursday/Friday, and landfalling somewhere in Florida on Saturday/Sunday.

Forecasts and tracks are subject to change, of course, but those in the path should use the next few days to make preparations/plans for possible landfall.

This satellite image self-updates:

Posted Image
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#2 of 93 CalvinCarr

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Posted August 31 2004 - 03:45 AM

The current 11:00 forcast has it slamming into me. I know it will be like Floyd in 99 where it curves more North and slamming into the already messed up Carolinas.

#3 of 93 Kirk Gunn

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Posted August 31 2004 - 04:19 AM

The 8/31 11:21am Accuweather update has a projected path anywhere from the OuterBanks to below the Keys and into New Orleans. The "preferred" path is into the Titusville area, but the absence of any strong steering fronts makes this one very difficult to predict.

If a front develops, Calvin could be correct..... but if nothing develops to block this behemoth, it could head straight enter central FLA, then continue NE criss-crossing the previous path of Charley.

#4 of 93 nolesrule

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Posted August 31 2004 - 06:05 AM

Straight from the horse's mouth:
EDIT

The image is a little big to embed here, so I'll just post a link.

http://www.nhc.noaa.....F/311513W5.gif

I go straight to the National Hurricane Center for my updates.

#5 of 93 CalvinCarr

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Posted August 31 2004 - 07:20 AM

8 A.M. Sunday it should be knocking on my door full force. My ass is out of here if it's even a remote possibility. In 1999 we had hurricane Floyd come close. It steered away at the last minute and stayed 100 miles off shore. We got a lot of wind etc. and our old pier bit the dust. The two main highways out of here were a mess. I-95 and I-10. It took me 6.5 hours to go 75 miles to the west. Hopefully they have learned as I have that I'm gone sooner this time.

#6 of 93 Kirk Gunn

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Posted August 31 2004 - 08:59 AM

Great idea Calvin - I was in near-tropical-storm conditions in Daytona once and that was amazing enough. Can't imagine a Cat3 or more....

The various weather bureaus are slightly different. Even at 5pm 8/31, Accuweather had a more southerly touchdown near Titusville, Cape Canaveral, etc. We'll have to see if they are more accurate than the NHC.

#7 of 93 Alf S

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Posted August 31 2004 - 09:01 AM

Not to make light of things but...

http://images.google....ipes/hulka.jpg

Lighten up Frances

Posted Image

Seriously though...everyone involved ..be safe.
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#8 of 93 Kirk Gunn

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Posted August 31 2004 - 01:42 PM

The 8pm of Accuweather, WSI and NHC now all show landfall in the Cape Canaveral, Melbourne area, though it's still insanely early and the long-term strength of the High Pressure system is questionable.

Definitely an odd track since it's expected to hit Turks & Caicos. They haven't been effected in years...

From Accuweather: Frances is tracking generally to the west and we feel that it will take a track to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure weakens some to the north of the Hurricane. Frances will have a major impact on the eastern islands of the southern Bahamas on Thursday. There is still a wide range of possibilities for a U.S. landfall ranging from from the Carolinas to south Florida. It is too early to tell for sure.

#9 of 93 Rob Lutter

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Posted August 31 2004 - 05:11 PM

I swear, I'm magnetic to these storms... lol Posted Image

#10 of 93 John Besse

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Posted August 31 2004 - 09:39 PM

I swear. This is the worst time to be living in Florida. I had to evacuate 3 weeks ago this friday, and it looks like I'll be doing it again. We got lucky in the Tampa area with Charley... But, the Tampa Bay area is long over due to get nailed. I will not stick around for this one either.
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#11 of 93 Zane Charron

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Posted August 31 2004 - 10:36 PM

I grew up in Melbourne and will be moving back there at the end of this month (in Germany now). My mom and brothers still live there. Too bad I won't be there to help clean up!

The thing about hurricanes is that they are completely survivable. They move slowly and for the most part predictably. The people that generally die or are injured are either elderly, those with stress/heart conditions or people who are out moving around at the last minute or, heaven forbid, DURING the hurricane. Here is a description of all the FL related deaths due to Hurricane Charley and you'll see what I mean:

http://www.nbc6.net/...878/detail.html

Unless you have a solid house made of brick AWAY from the coast get to a good solid shelter of flee (and if it looks like you are going to get the brunt of the storm just get the hell out of there). DON'T go out during a hurricane, especially a bad one like Charley or Francis. Stock up on supplies since you may be out of electricity for days or even weeks. All the usual stuff.

#12 of 93 CalvinCarr

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Posted August 31 2004 - 11:28 PM

Kirk,
I know what you mean. We have a house in Miami and have made 2 trips since the storm came through Daytona. All along I-95 ther are big trees and billboards down. It looks like now that it's going south of us. My brother in law lives in Wellington so I hope he does okay. I boarded our house in Miami last weekend when we were there.

#13 of 93 Malcolm R

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Posted September 01 2004 - 02:57 AM

Too bad I won't be there to help clean up!

If a Cat. 3 or 4 hurricane makes a direct landfall on the Melbourne area, I'm sure there'll be plenty for you to do when you get back.
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#14 of 93 Rob Lutter

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Posted September 01 2004 - 03:46 AM

I've NEVER gone to a shelter... EVER. My parents have always lived in a house with concrete block construction (as with most houses in their area and mine in Orlando) and I've never felt the need, really. The houses you always see obliterated on the news are made of wood... ever heard of the story of the big bad wolf? Posted Image

#15 of 93 todd s

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Posted September 01 2004 - 04:20 AM

I have heard reports that the houses with the new codes (post hurricane Andrew) withstood hurricane Charley a lot better. Someone reported that the roofs that are attached to the foundation with bracings made a big difference. Can anyone from the area confirm this?
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#16 of 93 Rob Lutter

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Posted September 01 2004 - 05:45 AM

It's true. You never really see newer houses with their rooves blown off because of the more intricate connection between house and roof.

The biggest problem I see is stuff blowing through my windows, as I don't have storm shutters in my townhome complex... glargh Posted Image

#17 of 93 nolesrule

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Posted September 01 2004 - 09:49 AM

Quote:
I swear. This is the worst time to be living in Florida. I had to evacuate 3 weeks ago this friday, and it looks like I'll be doing it again. We got lucky in the Tampa area with Charley... But, the Tampa Bay area is long over due to get nailed. I will not stick around for this one either.


Because it is coming from the east, storm surge wouldn't be too much of an issue because of weakening while coming across land. If you do evacuate, I hope you mean you are going to a shelter and not just "inland". Because right now, all of Florida is pretty much sitting in the predicited path cone with Orlando and Gainsville right up the middle.

You'd have to go all the way to Texas to get out of the potential path of this one.

#18 of 93 Todd Hochard

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Posted September 01 2004 - 04:47 PM

Yeah, I'm not sure why any Gulf-Coasters are evac'ing for this. It'll be a weak Cat 1, at best, by the time it rolls that way, if it does at all.

I'm sending my wife and kids to Fort Myers (my in-laws). Current projections have 100+ mph winds at my front door (East Orlando) AGAIN (neighborhood clocked 105mph on Charley). I'm staying, just to stay with my property, and take in a few folks from Melbourne/Palm Bay. My house was built in '94, to post-Andrew codes, and aside from the quite-troublesome window and door flexing during the height of Charley, it stayed together fine. I lost roughly 15 shingles off the roof- no biggie.

The homes in my neighborhood built in '91-'92, before Andrew codes, did suffer more roof damage. That may just be age-related, though, as they lost a LOT more shingles than any of the newer homes did. Nobody lost any roof deck, though. See- packin' em in on tiny lots DOES pay off.Posted Image

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#19 of 93 Rob Lutter

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Posted September 01 2004 - 05:14 PM

My place was built in 2002... and I got NO damage during Charley (I am also in E. Orlando, so there were 100+ mph winds).

#20 of 93 nolesrule

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Posted September 01 2004 - 06:08 PM

Who would have thought Orlando would possibly get nailed by two major hurricanes just weeks apart? Boggles the mind.




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