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X-Box 2 will win next console battle


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#1 of 41 OFFLINE   Tony_Ramos

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Posted August 18 2004 - 05:25 PM

here's why:

1.) sony is still pursuing over-ambitious ideas for the PS3, as they did with the "emotion engine" on the PS2, which used a proprietary CPU and VPU that shared the same RAM. This time, they are trying to implement distributed computing! We all know this will fall flat on its butt, yet they were echoing this statement even at E3 2004. This will either result in delays or a dumbed down version of the specs they wanted.

2.) The over-ambitious hardware design will be so hard to program for, all the first games will be flops.

3.) Microsoft has finally won over Japanese software developers with X-Box 1. Their hardware unit sales are now beating PS2, and their hardware is clearly superior and easier to program for. They will have strong clout with developers once they begin showing off the X-Box2 dev units.

4.) Microsoft is once again using a PC based architecture, although this time opting for dual cores, but still with a prototypical VPU by ATi, which will either be utilitizing the current R420 (X800) or upcoming R430 graphics core. This recognizable hardware configuration will allow for the maximum number of games to be developed in the shortest amount of time, including numerous PC crossovers such as KOTOR that the PS3 will not share.

5.) Microsoft has the edge in online experience. They are now the leader for online console gaming, and they have the edge in software programming and support over Sony. They have even garnered the exclusive online support of EA and Capcom. the first is tops with Americans, the second vital to Japanese.

6.) Sony will have scant few, if any, killer exclusive licenses such as Metal Gear, Grand Theft Auto, or Final Fantasy anymore. Square and Konami are already in talks with X-Box, and Take two interactive will most likely pick the hardware with the higher installed base, which leads to point 7:

7.) X-Box looks set to launch first. The only reason PS2 led the last generation was b/c they launched first by a mile. The quality of software has been mostly mediocre, with VERY few standouts: FFX, MGS 2, and GTA3 / VC, which as I said above, will likely be X-Box 2 exclusives.

8.) BTW, that E3 2004 showed the state of Sony's games division, which, much like the rest of their company, has stagnated, but even more so. There was not one "ooh aahh" title to be shown. Their sales figures were not high, their online support is near to non-existent even 4 years after release, and the one exclusive they were able to show is drawing resigned sighs from most critics: MGS3. Microsoft, on the other hand, had one of the most memorable conferences of recent memory, woith the most anticipated game of the year, Halo 2, and lots of other multiplayer titles and innovative online software. And let's face it, when ppl play console games today, theya re playing X-Box. It's sports games look better, and HALO is the competition game of choice other than Madden. The brand affinity is growing by leaps and bounds.

Need I say more? Now, if X-Box 2 is late to market, which I doubt, and if Sony somehow manages to keep their exclusives, this will be a closer race, but not by much. their few exclusives this generation were MGS 3 and FFX, which have lost a lot of clout with American gamers after the mediocre quality of those titles.

I'd also like to add that I don't even own an X-Box, I bought a first-run PS2 b/c I bought Sony's hype. with the exception of GTA, the majority of their games were underwhelming. On the other hand, when i get calls to play console with friends, it's X-Box ONLY, and I cna't argue with the depth of their multiplayer titles.

#2 of 41 OFFLINE   ishak

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Posted August 18 2004 - 06:25 PM

I HEARD THE XBOX 2 IS GOUNG TO USE THE R520 GRAPHICS CARD

#3 of 41 OFFLINE   Tony_Ramos

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Posted August 18 2004 - 06:40 PM

i probably got the codename wrong, b/c ATI has been going up by 20-50 or so for their codenames. Thanks for the all caps.

the point is, it's the next generation after the X800 / R420 series, MAYBE. it's possible they'll just use a tweaked core of the X800.

you didn't really respond to anything I said, btw...

#4 of 41 OFFLINE   BrianB

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Posted August 19 2004 - 03:37 AM

Quote:
Microsoft has finally won over Japanese software developers with X-Box 1. Their hardware unit sales are now beating PS2

Nope & nope. Japanese developers are still by & large ignoring the Xbox, and the Xbox outselling the PS2 was a blip with the last price drop - the latest NPD figures show the PS2 outselling the Xbox by 100,000 in July in the US for example. At this stage in its lifecycle, it's expected for PS2 sales to slow down - it's sold ~25million in the US & still has a better tie-in ratio.

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They have even garnered the exclusive online support of EA and Capcom. the first is tops with Americans, the second vital to Japanese.

Nope & nope. Neither are exclusive to Microsoft, where'd you hear that that nonsense?

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Sony will have scant few, if any, killer exclusive licenses

Pure hypothesis.

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the one exclusive they were able to show

??? MGS3 is far from the only exclusive Sony title at E3. You keep referring to MGS, FFX & GTA3 as the only exclusive Sony brands this generation, yet make no mention of exclusives such as Gran Turismo, Ratchet & Clank, Jak & Dexter, SOCOM, Resident Evil Online, Kingdom Hearts, Devil May Cry etc all of which are very big brands. Publishers like Konami & Squaresoft are always "in talks" with the hardware manufacturers, you can't draw any conclusions about exclusivity from it.


Microsoft may win the next round but not on the misleading gumpf you're posting Posted Image
high resolution ipod featuring dlp hd programming is the best, almost as good as playstation 2 with wega windows media on a super cd! ps2 and tivo do dolby tv with broadband hdtv!

#5 of 41 OFFLINE   Joe Szott

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Posted August 19 2004 - 04:08 AM

Tony, nice thought out post. Unfortunately, it is also complete conjecture and hardcore flame bait (by the title alone.)

I think MS will do better in the next gen, but Sony likely will do just fine as well. If anything, I hold the opinion that gamers might just split, with Western gamers choosing Xbox2 and Eastern gamers preferring PS3. There is a widening disconnect between what each region prefers and Japan doesn't like to give much on these issues.

For example, lots of japanese gamers don't like Halo (or rather the tye of game - shooter FPS.) They would prefer a dating sim. Same thing with KOTOR, they would consider it vastly inferior to FFX or such. I don't begrudge them this opinion, I just saying that there is a definite gap between what we like and what they like.

I would suspect that if Halo 2 is all it seems to be and Halo 3 is announced for Xbox 2, that could be a major factor for western gamers. I think that game culture rift will likely just get wider over time.

#6 of 41 OFFLINE   Tony_Ramos

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Posted August 19 2004 - 08:08 PM

Brian B, when I spoke of exclusive titles, I should have specificed that I meant blockbuster titles with the potential of selling a new hardware generation. No one over age 12 is going to buy a PS3 over an X-Box based on Ratchet & Clank or Jak & Daxter, which both happen to have been overrated titles. They are a part of the market, yes, but they will not be the deciding factor, as Nintendo already owns most of that demographic, and, those age groups have less disposable income and are subject ot the whims of parents.

The titles I menation happened to have cross-culture, cross-demographic appeal, and were all cited as the main reasons for having bought a next gen console by many gamers that I know.

You also didn't address the architectures...of which we still, sadly, know little about for the PS3. Also, to say that Japan doesn't support X-Box is incorrect. They aren't all going to produce exclusive titles, but they are supporting X-Box more and more, virtually all of the major Japanese developers do. Please don't try to disregard that!

However, I think Joe Szott makes a great point that X-Box 2 may end up owning the Western market while Japan will prefer PS3. But even that may be moderated by it's hard-to-program architecture and wide-open design goals!


Also, aside from "flame bate," if we're not allowed to get excited and speculate on what system our favorite games will appear on in a Video Game forum, then where *can* I do it?


I was in exactly the opposite camp last hardware generation, and I felt comfortable in that position as I owned a PS2 and was privy to all that exclusive content, except HALO. It turned out that I was right on calling that generation, and I'm interested to see if I can read the tea leaves this time. I just feel like the stars are aligning for X-Box 2.

#7 of 41 OFFLINE   Calvin Watts III

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Posted August 20 2004 - 01:34 AM

Its very simple really.
The winner of the next console battle will be...

Us.The gamers.
As long as there is one or two killer games that are exclusive to a particular system - then I'll own that system.

Two points in closing:
  • Your opinion on Ratchet & Clank/Jak & Daxter being overrated...
  • I'll also point out that Nothing is finalized yet as to the specs of the systems.For all we know it could be the next Atari 5200...
Posted Image Posted Image

#8 of 41 OFFLINE   JayV

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Posted August 20 2004 - 03:11 AM

Quote:
Also, aside from "flame bate," if we're not allowed to get excited and speculate on what system our favorite games will appear on in a Video Game forum, then where *can* I do it?

I imagine the issue is that while speculation is one thing, making unsupported and occasionally simply wrong claims is another. I mean, Capcom and EA are Xbox online exclusives?!

Let's look at two other unsupported claims:

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The only reason PS2 led the last generation was b/c they launched first by a mile.

How do you address the PS2's name recognition, backwards compatibility and out-of-the-box DVD playing?

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And let's face it, when ppl play console games today, theya re playing X-Box.

Really? Do you have any data to support this?

I imagine that there are colorable arguments out there for Xbox 2 winning the next generation of console wars. You just didn't make any.

#9 of 41 OFFLINE   Joe Szott

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Posted August 20 2004 - 04:10 AM

Quote:
The winner of the next console battle will be...us, the gamers


I'll second that and sincerely hope it is true!

#10 of 41 OFFLINE   Tony_Ramos

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Posted August 20 2004 - 04:29 AM

to all:

I made some overgeneralizations on the history of the PS2.

HOWEVER, you have to admit that the PS2's name recognition, DVD playing, and backwards compat COULD have been overcome by the X-Box coming sooner out of the gate. I think ppl are underestimating how much of an impact being first could have when backed up by consistent software.


The other thing, is it just me, or are we seeing Japanese moving away from the more typical genres like platformer, adventure, RPG? Western developers have been the only ones to innovate in these genres and others in quite some time. It seems like the only innovative games coming out of Japan are new genres like dance sim, etc.

That's why I think we could see X-Box 2 dominate in the west and PS3 in the east, like Joe said.

Also, I'd like to reiterate that Microsoft has had the most integrated and successful approach to online gaming so far...


And no, I don't think that "we win" if both systems are good! Some ppl can't afford two consoles. I was in heaven during the 16bit SNES days when one console was clearly superior, with only a few exceptions taht I could play at a friends house. That's why I'd like to see another dominant console this generation, so that developers tend to pick that one. And i think the architectures are likely going to be so different that there will be a learning curve in releasing cross-platform.

#11 of 41 OFFLINE   Romier S

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Posted August 20 2004 - 04:42 AM

Quote:
You also didn't address the architectures...of which we still, sadly, know little about for the PS3


..and there have been no finalized statistics for Xenon as of yet either. Whatever has been revealed is subject to change at Microsofts whim when they see fit. So whats your point?

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HOWEVER, you have to admit that the PS2's name recognition, DVD playing, and backwards compat COULD have been overcome by the X-Box coming sooner out of the gate.

Sure it could have, but then it would have had to contend with the enormous amount of third party support Sony has for its console and still maintains to this day. I am personally glad the Xbox and the Gamecube released when they did because quite honestly the launch of the PS2 was unstoppable, even in the face of almost ZERO quality titles at launch.

#12 of 41 OFFLINE   Tony_Ramos

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Posted August 20 2004 - 05:56 AM

my point is, the launch of the ps2 was "unstoppable" b/c no other nextgen consoles with big name recognition were out!

There was no other unit that could play DVDs. There was no other unit with popular franchises. That will be different this generation. PPl are going to remember that Madden looked better on XBOX, that Ninja Gaiden had the best graphics of any console game ever, that Halo was the best console shooter since Goldeneye, etc. Ppl are also going to remember that most of that third party support you mentioned were turds like monster truck games and platformers whose market has shrunken or moved to Nintendo.

#13 of 41 OFFLINE   Romier S

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Posted August 20 2004 - 07:55 AM

Quote:
my point is, the launch of the ps2 was "unstoppable" b/c no other nextgen consoles with big name recognition were out!


So what exactly would have changed had Microsoft released the Xbox? Oh thats right, absolutely nothing because the Xbox had ZERO name recognition at that time besides the name Microsoft printed on it and well that was hardly an inspiration to take the plunge on a new system.

On that subject you already had Sega, a well established company, delivering a console that had, at the time a phenominal line-up of games that was completely trounced the Playstation 2. Should I even bother bringing up the N64 or how even Nintendo, had they released the Gamecube alongside the PS2, would probably not have made even a dent on its sales.

The launch of the PS2 was unstoppable because of the Sony hype machine. It was unstoppable because Sony spent years changing consumer perception and making the Playstation the brand to own. Sony simply knows how to market thier console.

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There was no other unit with popular franchises.

Again something that MAY and more than likely will make a difference next gen but would have had almost no bearing this generation and during the PS2 launch.

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Ppl are also going to remember that most of that third party support you mentioned were turds like monster truck games and platformers whose market has shrunken or moved to Nintendo.

Yeah, along with games like Devil May Cry, Onimusha 1, 2 3, Silent Hill 3, Viewtiful Joe, Contra Shattered Soldier, Castlevania, Virtua Figher 4, Final Fantasy X, Xenosaga, Suikoden, Champions of Norrath, Shinobi, R-Type Final, Gradius V, Sky Gunner, Time Crisis and should I even continue rebutting your utterly ridiculous overgeneralization?

Quote:
I made some overgeneralizations


Understatement of the year.

#14 of 41 OFFLINE   BrianB

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Posted August 20 2004 - 08:11 AM

Quote:
Brian B, when I spoke of exclusive titles, I should have specificed that I meant blockbuster titles with the potential of selling a new hardware generation. No one over age 12 is going to buy a PS3 over an X-Box based on Ratchet & Clank or Jak & Daxter, which both happen to have been overrated titles. They are a part of the market, yes, but they will not be the deciding factor, as Nintendo already owns most of that demographic, and, those age groups have less disposable income and are subject ot the whims of parents.

Just because you feel the games are overrated doesn't make them any less liked or well received - together, they've sold around 4 million copies in the US & are very well regarded. They may not be Halo-like system sellers, but they add to the wealth of the PS2's software library & attract a strong fanbase. R&C in particular is most definitely not aimed at "12 year old & below" kids.

Quote:
You also didn't address the architectures...of which we still, sadly, know little about for the PS3.

No, I didn't address it, because as you say, the PS3 architecture hasn't been announced in detail yet, and to be honest, the architecture isn't what sells systems - it's the software. It's the software support that will "win" the next console war. And yes, a good easy development environment will help gain that software support - something Sony is acknowledging BTW with things like COLLADA. The Xbox2's alleged new architecture is no mere "upgrade" either BTW - it's a very different beast to the XBox in a number of ways.


Quote:
Also, to say that Japan doesn't support X-Box is incorrect. They aren't all going to produce exclusive titles, but they are supporting X-Box more and more, virtually all of the major Japanese developers do. Please don't try to disregard that!

There's token support from a bunch of them with almost all major franchises & development lead by the PS2. Even the third parties who do support the Xbox still release way more for the PS2 than the Xbox - even Tecmo. In Japan at this point, the Xbox is effectively a lost cause.

Quote:
Also, aside from "flame bate," if we're not allowed to get excited and speculate on what system our favorite games will appear on in a Video Game forum, then where *can* I do it?

GameFAQs or IGN? There's discussion & there's flamebait - nowt wrong with excitement or speculation when it's grounded in facts instead of sheer nonsense like EA is now exclusive to the Xbox...

Quote:
Ppl are also going to remember that most of that third party support you mentioned were turds like monster truck games and platformers whose market has shrunken or moved to Nintendo.


Again with the baseless hyperbole & flamebait.
You're doing a great impression of someone who doesn't actually know the PS2 software catalogue very well. Here's some of the top third party PS2 games (many of which are exclusive): GTA3, GTA:VC, Madden, FFX, Medal of Honor, Tony Hawk, Kingdom Hearts, NFS, Max Payne, Ace Combat, Tekken, Simpsons Road Rage, WWE, Devil May Cry, Ghost Recon, Hitman 2, The Sims,
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#15 of 41 OFFLINE   Kelley_B

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Posted August 20 2004 - 09:21 AM

You guys are all morons, everyone knows that the Phantom will be the one system to rule them all. Man I can't wait to play Read Rabbit 3D!!!!!! Halo who????

#16 of 41 OFFLINE   DaveGTP

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Posted August 20 2004 - 10:16 AM

Quote:
On that subject you already had Sega, a well established company, delivering a console that had, at the time a phenominal line-up of games that was completely trounced the Playstation 2. Should I even bother bringing up the N64 or how even Nintendo, had they released the Gamecube alongside the PS2, would probably not have made even a dent on its sales.

The launch of the PS2 was unstoppable because of the Sony hype machine. It was unstoppable because Sony spent years changing consumer perception and making the Playstation the brand to own. Sony simply knows how to market their console.


100% agreement with Romier, here.

But I do thnk that DVD playback, at launch time, was a big deal. I know a lot of people here (both parents and mid-20's folks) - they often went PS2 because "it was also a DVD player". I do think Sony will have less advantage this time, provided the other consoles implement backwards compatibility (another PS2 launch helper).


I think we've learned from Sega that first launch does not equal success. I actually think we will continue to have a 3-way market - there is more market for games than there used to be.


And as far as Nintendo having the "kiddie" market - give me a break. PS2 has that market by a vast majority, as well as the casual gamer market (in fact, they have a vast majority of all the markets).


No offense Xbox'ers - I know HTF is tilted pro-Xbox due to HT friendly features. But I personally am a big gamer. I have a PS2, PSone, GC, SNES, NES, Genesis, Saturn, Dreamcast. You should see the tangle of cords hooked to my receiver/projector.

BUT - I still haven't gotten an Xbox. Although I've considered it for a few games (Panzer Dragoon Orta, perhaps KOTOR, online Capcom fighting games!!), I've never found a selection of games that appeal to me. FPS is very popular on consoles, esp Xbox these days - but I play those on my PC - give me my mouse & keyboard!

Where's the RPGs or Strategy games on Xbox? Very important for me.

If I can get a deal on one I may pick one up soon. And I would consider their next console (if they don't ditch the HDD).
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#17 of 41 OFFLINE   Jeffrey Forner

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Posted August 20 2004 - 11:46 AM

Quote:
And no, I don't think that "we win" if both systems are good! Some ppl can't afford two consoles. I was in heaven during the 16bit SNES days when one console was clearly superior, with only a few exceptions taht I could play at a friends house. That's why I'd like to see another dominant console this generation, so that developers tend to pick that one.

This has to be the most convoluted reasoning I've seen in this thread, and that's saying something.

Look at it this way: The PS2 owns the lion's share of the market right now, correct? That said, there are still dozens of fine, exclussive titles for it, the Xbox, and yes, even the GameCube despite that. It was true during the 16-bit era, and I suspect the same will hold true when the next generation of systems launches in the next few years.
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#18 of 41 OFFLINE   Steve Bjorg

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Posted August 20 2004 - 12:13 PM

XBox2 is almost guaranteed to be a flop. I would put my money on PS3. I currently don't own a PS2, because I never liked it -- since it killed my beloved Dreamcast -- and I love my XBox. But what's in the pipe for the next XBox iteration is downright troubling.
Abstract yourself!

#19 of 41 OFFLINE   Romier S

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Posted August 20 2004 - 12:25 PM

Quote:
XBox2 is almost guaranteed to be a flop.


They said the same about the Xbox. Heres an idea, its a crazy one I know, but how about we actually wait until we have finalized specs for a console before we start the doomsaying and calling it a failure or a winner?

(They should rename this thread "Hyperbole: A lesson in talking out of your backside"Posted Image )

#20 of 41 OFFLINE   Steve Bjorg

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Posted August 20 2004 - 12:41 PM

Romier,

You're too politically correct. Posted Image

If XBox had been launched by any other company, that company would have declared Chapter 11 a long time ago. There is a sheer will of making it succeed, regardless of cost.
Abstract yourself!


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