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Why I think BluRay may be the future for CD-based music and HD video content...


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#1 of 262 Lee Scoggins

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Posted March 15 2004 - 11:27 AM

There was an interesting article on BluRay in the Wall Street Journal today. After thinking about the article for a while it seems to me that BluRay could very well become the next DVD and hirez music standard.

This is speculation at this point, but here is the logic in my observation:

1. BluRay has a huge consortium of major consumer electronics firms including Sony, Matsushita, HP, Dell, etc. whereas only Toshiba and NEC have formally committed to HD-DVD and, of course, the Toshiba led DVD Forum.

2. BluRay has 50GB capacity versus 30GB of HD-DVD giving it more storage capacity and I think that bodes well for data uses in the computer space.

3. Sony and Matsushita senior executives have made strong comments about not going the HD-DVD route. Given the market power of everyone involved, the DVD Forum could pretty much be rolled.

4. Repeating the "Beta" mistake is eliminated by the alliance with Matsushita which was not in place before.

5. BluRay recording devices are available, albeit expensive, in Japan. More BluRay devices will filter out in 2004. HD-DVD is only supposed to be available in 2005.

6. Several senior movie studio executives are expressing interest in BluRay.

All these factors combine to present in my humble opinion a real chance for adoption.

I think the benefit for the consumer is very high. High def video is definitely a cool advance and now we can have hirez music across 6+ channels plus video plus features with lots of room left over.

What is your take on this?

Do you think that the advent of high-definition video creates another "window of opportunity" for getting high resolution audio established?
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#2 of 262 Rachael B

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Posted March 15 2004 - 12:15 PM

Yeah Lee, it's another window but such a small minority of folks care about better sounding music that the window might as well be open just to catch the breez, me thinks.
Rachael, the big disc cat is in real life Dot Mongur, Champion of the International Pacman Federation. You better be ready to rumble if you play Jr. Pacman with me. This is full contact Pacman and I don't just play the game, I operate it!


#3 of 262 Kevin C Brown

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Posted March 15 2004 - 12:24 PM

If people aren't buying (many) SACDs and/or DVD-As now, I don't see how a new type of disc is going to change that. In fact, I could see a Blu Ray hi rez music format as just another thing to confuse the average guy.

Personally, I don't *want* any video with my hi-rez music.
If it's not worth waiting until the last minute to do, then it's not worth doing.

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#4 of 262 Marc Colella

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Posted March 15 2004 - 12:48 PM

SACD/DVD-A is much more than people need or care about.

A format that offers more space and possibly better sound isn't going to make a lick of difference.
MP3s and CDs are perfect for most consumers.

Plus HD-DVD will be the standard high-resolution video format - so if a ultra hi-rez format manages to carve a niche, it won't be with BluRay.

One huge disadvantage to BluRay is that they will have to create new production lines, whereas HD-DVD can use existing production lines and will therefore be a great deal cheaper.

Here's hoping HD-DVD wins the battle.

#5 of 262 John Milton

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Posted March 15 2004 - 03:11 PM

Personally I like what I've read about Blu-ray better than HD-DVD. Though I think it's possible both will survive. Blu-ray's headstart is a plus but HD-DVD has the name more Joe Sixpack's will be able to figure out. The real key to the success of Blu-ray in this battle is to simply release a lot of great Columbia films quickly. The longer the format waits the harder the challenge will be. If I were Sony I'd be releasing several BR players right now for under a grand. Then ease the prices down to $500 by Christmas, $200 by summer '05. Fast market penetration will do wonders! If they were to release dozens of popular movies on BR discs they'd not only help make their format a success but also drive a lot more people into buying an HDTV. Not everyone likes sports ya know, and that's the main force behind HD sales right now. Lastly, in the first batch of BR discs to be released include The Fifth Element. Movie aside, it was a terrific demo DVD and no doubt would be an even better HD demo. As for music, SACDs are fine by me. I agree with a previous poster who doesn't care to watch music videos on disc. Music to me is more of a nice sort of background entertainment.

#6 of 262 Bill Cowmeadow

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Posted March 15 2004 - 03:28 PM

I don't no much about this stuff, but from what I've read, the technology uses very fine laser tracking and is much more suscepible errors from dirt/smudges. Will they use some kind of transport like a cd cadddy to protect the disc? Me and Joe won't go for that.

My 2 Cents.

#7 of 262 Jesper

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Posted March 15 2004 - 07:51 PM

I don't see cd has any future - we have DVD format and people are getting used to it.. Look at the new surround processors they have lcd screen, new cars - they have lcd screens.. The cd format is dead.

I think Blu-Ray might survive for the proff world - not for the consumer. HD-DVD will do the job.. It woukd be nice to have DVD Audio on HD-DVD! Posted Image
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#8 of 262 Lee Scoggins

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Posted March 16 2004 - 01:02 AM

Quote:
If people aren't buying (many) SACDs and/or DVD-As now, I don't see how a new type of disc is going to change that. In fact, I could see a Blu Ray hi rez music format as just another thing to confuse the average guy.


We have not seen hirez marketed effectively to the man/woman on the street. I think a massive marketing campaign for the new video format that also speaks to better music quality could change that.

Quote:
Personally, I don't *want* any video with my hi-rez music.


Me thinks you are in the minority, especially if its a free added feature.

Quote:
Plus HD-DVD will be the standard high-resolution video format - so if a ultra hi-rez format manages to carve a niche, it won't be with BluRay.


I don't think so. There are 12 large companies supporting it versus 2 committed for HD DVD.

Quote:
One huge disadvantage to BluRay is that they will have to create new production lines, whereas HD-DVD can use existing production lines and will therefore be a great deal cheaper.


But both require major investments. My money is on Sony and Matsushita given the market presence and power they have and the distributor and retailer relationships.

Quote:
If I were Sony I'd be releasing several BR players right now for under a grand. Then ease the prices down to $500 by Christmas, $200 by summer '05. Fast market penetration will do wonders!


I agree. Posted Image
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#9 of 262 Lee Scoggins

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Posted March 16 2004 - 01:04 AM

Quote:
I don't no much about this stuff, but from what I've read, the technology uses very fine laser tracking and is much more suscepible errors from dirt/smudges.


Bill, they figured this one out - no caddy - see yesterday's Wall Street Journal. The Sony engineer does a demo where he grinds dirt into a BluRay disc and it still plays!
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#10 of 262 PhilBoy

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Posted March 16 2004 - 01:29 AM

Perhaps BluRay will be the "Unifying Format"...

One player, one disc...

Dual layer for HD video and large content advanced resolution music releases.

Single layer for advanced resolution audio.

Increased PC optical storage.

I can't see 50GB of storage becoming obsolete for quite a while... at least until we enter the 3D hologram era...

Posted Image
simplicity is genius...

#11 of 262 John Kotches

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Posted March 16 2004 - 01:48 AM

As I've said before, I'd be all over BluRay except for this:

MPEG-2 for video

Sorry, MPEG-4 or VC-9 for me on a "next generation" format. Skipping past demonstrable improvements in codec technology indicates to me that this is an effort to hurry out a solution to get some recognition rather than deliver the best possible product available at the time of conception.

What's with all the blatant promotion of late from you?

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#12 of 262 PhilBoy

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Posted March 16 2004 - 02:10 AM

Doth you refer to Lee's blatant promotion ?

Codecs can be changed much easier than the laser specs.
simplicity is genius...

#13 of 262 Rachael B

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Posted March 16 2004 - 04:28 AM

People don't like constant format changes and I don't either. People are really slow to slow warm up to SACD & DVD-A. If the rug is pulled out beneath both of these formats in favour of ANY third party format I'll be P'ed off. They haven't done either of these formats right yet!
Rachael, the big disc cat is in real life Dot Mongur, Champion of the International Pacman Federation. You better be ready to rumble if you play Jr. Pacman with me. This is full contact Pacman and I don't just play the game, I operate it!


#14 of 262 PhilBoy

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Posted March 16 2004 - 05:36 AM

Rachael,

You of all people would have every right to miffed over yet another format...

Based on what I can read between the lines of your posts, you must have an audio/video rack (room? Posted Image ) most of us would give our 'left' for.

I'll bet you have machinery I didn't even know existed, but with the Heir Apparent BluRay format, perhaps at last we will have uncompressed Hi-Rez music 5.1, 8.1, whatever simply because there is a lot more space on the disc and hopefully it will eliminate multi/universal players.

If it does go to one format, you'll be able to make a fortune trancribing everyone's various software and still have a vast collection to enjoy.

Posted Image
simplicity is genius...

#15 of 262 Phil A

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Posted March 16 2004 - 06:01 AM

"People don't like constant format changes and I don't either. People are really slow to slow warm up to SACD & DVD-A. If the rug is pulled out beneath both of these formats in favour of ANY third party format I'll be P'ed off. They haven't done either of these formats right yet! "

Rachael you are 100% right. I think that the typical strategy of getting equipment early at higher costs to initial adopters will encounter the same type of reaction. I won't spend a single penny on any new hardware until the format is completely mainstream and there is lots of software out there (more than SACD and DVD-A have combined at the moment).

I also think that most mainstream consumers would want software that is compatible with current DVD equipment (the most successful format in consumer history). So I don't Blue Ray moving forward at a very fast pace. If it makes it, it's going to be a very slow course. Let's not forget that many consumers have just bought TV/display devices to upgrade from old analog sets and they may not wish to either trash them just yet or not care all that much if they can't get the full benefit. Many of the lower priced plasmas will still only do 480p.

#16 of 262 Rachael B

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Posted March 16 2004 - 06:59 AM

Philboy, it may be better but it's too much too soon! You're talking about scrapping uni-players before they've scratched the surface yet. Myself, I'm growing disenchanted with M/C music at this point. Too much of it is not mixed for realism or for my tastes. DVD-A is growing on me as a stereo format lately. The last thing I need right now is another audio format. Step back and think about what you're saying.

I do have some nice source components and I shuffle them about my systems on occasion. What I need, well want, is more and better software for SACD & DVD-A or the lurking DualDisc. Why would music companies want to give us more than can fit on an SACD or DVD-A now anyway? I already have hi-def video on D-VHS too. Hi-def video discs would be kool eventually but I'm not salivating about it. I've got mine now. I'd rather hi-def video went slow and wasn't rushed in saddled with short-commings and I'm tired of format warz.

SACD and DVD-A are too much too soon for a great many folks. How can yet another music source fly? Crash, boom, bang! Blu-Ray may become an important video format but for music it's not really needed yet. Maybe someday? Posted Image
Rachael, the big disc cat is in real life Dot Mongur, Champion of the International Pacman Federation. You better be ready to rumble if you play Jr. Pacman with me. This is full contact Pacman and I don't just play the game, I operate it!


#17 of 262 Rachael B

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Posted March 16 2004 - 07:01 AM

Posted Image Phil, we are on the same page so very often!
Rachael, the big disc cat is in real life Dot Mongur, Champion of the International Pacman Federation. You better be ready to rumble if you play Jr. Pacman with me. This is full contact Pacman and I don't just play the game, I operate it!


#18 of 262 PhilBoy

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Posted March 16 2004 - 07:21 AM

For what it's worth, 24/96+ Stereo works great.
simplicity is genius...

#19 of 262 Lee Scoggins

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Posted March 16 2004 - 07:45 AM

Quote:
Sorry, MPEG-4 or VC-9 for me on a "next generation" format.


Fair enough John, but can you provide screen shots that show that MPEG4 is greatly more resolved than MPEG2 in high-def. Marc Colella showed how they compare to regular DVD but the real test is high def differences. BluRay already has some studio execs that say the picture quality is superb.

I would prefer MPEG4 is it is better quality but I have not seen any conclusive evidence so far. Please provide a link if there are high rez screen shots available as I am still moving up the learning curve.

Quote:
What's with all the blatant promotion of late from you?


This is not promotion at all, just a logical argument put out for discussion. Beta lost even though it was technically better in many ways due to lack of adoption by the major CE firms...with BluRay the opposite may be true.

Quote:
You of all people would have every right to miffed over yet another format


I'm not so sure on two counts: (1) the players are backward compatible with both DVD and redbook CD according to the Wall Street Journal, and (2) I kinda like technology moving forward...shorter development cycles mean better consumer value.

Quote:
Blu-Ray may become an important video format but for music it's not really needed yet.


I frankly don't agree with this line of thinking. The consumer can be educated to buy better quality if he is aware of the differences. The apathy of some toward SACD and DVDA is in large part IMHO due to a paucity of any good marketing leading to a lack of awareness by the consumer.
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#20 of 262 ElevSkyMovie

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Posted March 16 2004 - 08:04 AM

Lee,

MPEG2 can be as good as WM9 and MPEG4, but it takes nearly twice the bandwidth to do it in. That's reason enough not to use it.


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