2004 Box Office Predictions And Discussions (1 Viewer)

I thought TerryRL would have started this thread by now. I'll start it, but if Terry wants to start his own, Mods feel free to close this one.

Well, a new year of wrong guesses, bold predictions, and fun discussions are upon us. What are your picks for soon to be blockbusters?

I'll start with Spiderman 2 and Harry Potter And The Prizoner Of Azkaban.

I say Spidey 2 will do about $350 million.

The new Potter, which is based on what many consider to be the best book so far, will be the most successful with over $325 million.

And we're off....

Geez, it's not even 2004 yet.

It is now.

I'd be surprised if Spidey 2 earned over $350 mil, but it'll definitely top the $250 million mark. 'Prisoner of Azkaban' will no doubt do enormous business as well, especially overseas (the previous two 'Potter' movies both topped the $600 million mark internationally). Though, I wouldn't be at all shocked if neither ended up as the year's biggest hit.

2004 promises to be a big year for CG animated movies as "The Incredibles", "The Polar Express", "Shark Tale", and "Shrek 2" all battle for box office supremacy. All four will probably be gigantic hits, but the battle for #1 may come down between Disney/Pixar's "The Incredibles" and WB's "The Polar Express".

Many expected 2003 to top the $9.37 billion record of 2002, but that didn't happen as 2003 saw declines in overall admissions as ticket saw another hike in prices.
2003 ended up with a still impressive mark of $9.27 billion, making it the second biggest grossing year ever for the studios at the box office. It's too early to gauge how big 2004 will be, but expect another $9 billion year at the box office.

By the way, thanks for starting the thread Tino. I was hoping someone would get around to starting a 2004 thread. I'd rather post in a thread than start one. Too much pressure.

Definitely. Spiderman had a pretty good surprise factor. Spidey 2 will not follow this pattern.

I'm thinking The Incredibles right now, but who knows. I'll make my predictions in the coming weeks.

Terry

That's cool. You are definitely the best contributor to these threads with your thorough updates. Thanks again and keep up the good work.

Well according to Dick Clark ( I defy anyone to say Dick is wrong) The Return of the King will be counted for 2004.

I think Spider-Man 2 has a shot at breaking the $115 million opening weekend record of the first film, but with legs nowhere near as good. I'm seeing a total of around $325 million.

I agree with Tino that the new Harry Potter (and the first to be released during Summer instead of winder) will be the most successful $320 million

Shrek 2: $275 million

The Ring 2: Although it seems strange to release this one right AFTER Halloween (??) and in during the same weekend as the Polar Express, I still see it with $140 million.

Well I need to a see a list of films matched with directors and stars first (for next fall/winter) but the big summer/november movies mentioned so far, here's some of my thoughts.

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - 350 million - it seems every new release of the latest book/movie, pundits predict that there'll be a huge drop because interest has dropped off. Well I predict the opposite, this'll easily be in the top three-five grossers of the year and will be the most successful Potter movie. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 100 million opening weekend. definitely the number one worldwide grosser of the year, it will come awful close to the 1 billion mark.

Shrek 2 - 230 million The trailer looks excellent, but right now I don't see this cracking much further than the 250 mark at the outside

Spider-Man 2 - 280 million Opening weekend depends on running time, I imagine. But I don't see this as quite the phenomenal success as the first. I wouldn't be surprised to see it just eek over 300 million (though I'd be happy to be surprised with a higher gross), and if so it will be declared the second 300 million failure :rolleyes

The Incredibles - 360 million Will probably dominate most of the christmas family season, and continue strong throughout the entirety of January 2k5. The Pixar touch, I have to predict so highly my low estimate would be 320

The Polar Express - 250 million? Hard to tell on this film how it'll play until I've seen more trailers as well as see them with an actual audience in the theatre, but I just have a feeling that this could seriously be one of the top grossers of the year, going as high as 350 million (that keeps me nice and safe with a 100 million range!). This will probably have the lowest worldwide gross of these five films with the non-US bringing in slightly less than the US gross.

Adam

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - 375M/400M. People will be shocked at the kind of mondo, repeat box office this film will have.

Shrek 2 - $180M.. very healthy, but diminished a good deal below expectations.

Spiderman 2 - $260M - will be seen as somewhat of a failure from the first one, but significant box office. Gigantic opening weekend that quickly curtails.

Incredibles - $300M - great box office for a Thanksgiving release. Continues the pixar trend

Polar Express - $135M - may get swallowed up by other releases.

Bourne Supremacy - $135M - will be seen as a great success given budget, etc. more then enough to keep the potential series alive.

Kill Bill 2 - $72M - Tarintino's second film slightly outgrosses the first, and everyone is happy.

The Alamo - becomes the first real "dud" of the year, a box-office mega movie shot with the idea of a Christmas release for an oscar run becomes a springtime under the radar flop; grossing less then $70M, and failing to recoup budget.

Jersey Girl - Kevin Smith's latest flick moved back to get away from the stench of Gigli. Grosses $44M, makes back budget, but not a huge amount more.

The Whole Ten Yards - Bruce Willis comedy follow up that really didn't need it. Net: $62M

Teacher's Pet, the Movie: $23M

AvP - the concept of Aliens vs. Predator will draw a few people to the box office, expectations higher then reality though, expect gross less then $150M

I, Robot - performs better then people expect. Don't have a # figured out yet for this one, I'll wait till I see more.

Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow - Bombs miserably, studios wonder what happened.. gross of less then $80M.

Chronicles of Riddick - the sequel to "Pitch Black" does well, not shockingly well, but well enough, north of $150M.

Home on the Range - Disney's last 2D produced animated film goes out with a stinker; the budget is enormous and rife with story problems, initial box office is built in, but this film will struggle to get to $80M.

Shark Tale - the other big animated film of the year, on top of Shrek, Incredibles, Polar Express.. dies on the vine. Dreamwork's follow up fails to a catch on.

Troy - the saga of the battle of Troy finds an audience, nets $180M

Thanks for the compliment Tino.

2004 looks like it's going to be a huge year for family films. 'Prisoner of Azkaban' is (arguably) the best book of the 'Harry Potter' series thus far and the first one with a summer release. I agree with Tino, Matt and Adam_S in their assessment that 'Prisoner of Azkaban' will be the biggest 'Potter' film yet. I wouldn't be at all shocked if it ends up flirting with a worldwide gross of $1 billion. Even if it isn't the biggest domestic hit of the year, it'll more than likely end up being the top grossing international flick of 2004.

On the strength of what "Finding Nemo" did in 2003, it's a very safe assumption that "The Incredibles" will be every bit as successful as 'Nemo' was. The only difference is that 'Nemo' had a summer release working for it. "The Incredibles" will be dealing with some pretty stiff competition in "Shark Tale" (which opens in October) and "The Polar Express" (which opens the week after 'Incredibles' hits theaters). I still believe that 'Express' will be one of the year's biggest blockbusters (if not the biggest).

Here is a list of the films that many box office analysts believe have "big hit potential"...

"50 First Kisses" (Sony)- Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore star in the romantic comedy that Sony hopes will duplicate the success of the duo's last pairing, "The Wedding Singer".

"The Alamo" (Disney)- Originally slated for a December 2003 release, but the film was far from finished and moved to a March date.

"Alexander" (WB)- Director Oliver Stone's epic following the exploits of Alexander the Great stars Colin Farrell in the title role. My only question is why is WB opening this one on the same weekend "The Incredibles" makes it's debut?

"Alien vs. Predator" (Fox)- On the strength of the surprise success of "Freddy vs. Jason", this project which was saved from "development hell" and could give both franchises something neither has ever had...a $100 million hit.

"Along Came Polly" (Universal)- Ben Stiller and Jennifer Aniston's romantic comedy could be among 2004's first big hits.

"Anchorman" (DreamWorks)- Comedian Will Ferrell's follow-up to his surprise smash "Elf". The movie opens the weekend following the sure-to-be huge launch of "Spider-Man 2". From the little I've seen of this one, Ferrell could be adding another big hit to his resume.

"Around the World in 80 Days" (Disney)- The remake to the 1956 Best Picture winner stars Jackie Chan. The epic comedy adventure hits theaters in June.

"The Aviator" (WB)- Director Martin Scorsese re-teams with his "Gangs of New York" star Leonardo DiCaprio on the film which chronicles the early "adventures" of billionaire Howard Hughes. WB is hoping that this one will not only prove to be a hit movie, but will also bring the studio (and Scorsese) Oscar glory.

"Barbershop 2" (MGM)- The sequel following the surprise 2002 hit. Queen Latifah has a small role in the movie, which will be spun off into her own movie (franchise). MGM is hoping both will turn into very profitable franchises for them. As of now, the only franchise the studio has is the James Bond series.

"Blade: Trinity" (New Line)- The third (and possibly final) installment to New Line's popular series will see Blade (Wesley Snipes) look to end his war with the vampires once and for all.

"The Bourne Supremacy" (Universal)- Matt Damon returns as spy Jason Bourne in the sequel to the 2002 hit "The Bourne Identity". Universal is expecting this one to be as big (if not bigger) than the first film and there are already tentative plans for a third 'Bourne' outing.

"The Butterfly Effect" (New Line)- Ashton Kutcher attempts to shake off his goofy screen persona in this thriller which also stars up-and-comer Amy Smart. Can Kutcher prove that he's a serious actor?

"Catwoman" (WB)- While many are writing this one off, I think it'll actually be a bigger hit than most anticipate. Star Halle Berry proved that she could open a movie with 2003's "Gothika" (to the tune of $19.2 mil) and I think "Catwoman" will at least have a solid opening. If the movie earns anything over $70 mil, WB will do a sequel.

"The Chronicles of Riddick" (Universal)- A lot is riding on this one for star Vin Diesel. After seeing "2 Fast 2 Furious" become a huge hit in spite of him not returning, Diesel also had to endure "A Man Apart" turning into a box office dud, as well as losing the starring role in the XXX sequel to Ice Cube. 'Riddick' (the sequel to the modestly successful "Pitch Black") has to turn into a smash hit to put Diesel back on Hollywood's A-List.

"Cinderella Man" (Universal/Miramax)- Oscar winning director Ron Howard re-teams with his "A Beautiful Mind" star (and Oscar winner) Russell Crowe on this film following the true accounts of boxer James Braddock during the Depression. This one has Oscar bait written all over it (especially considering it's late December release) and if the movie is a hit, don't be surprised to see nods for Howard, Crowe and co-star Rene Zellweger.

"Collateral" (DreamWorks)- Tom Cruise and Jamie Foxx team with director Michael Mann on this film that follows a day-in-the-life of a contract killer (Cruise). As far as I know, this will be the first time Cruise has played an all-out bad guy in a movie. I'm sure Cruise is hoping for the same sort of result that Denzel Washington got after playing the heavy in "Training Day".

"Constantine" (WB)- Based on the adult oriented Vertigo Comics title "John Constantine: Hellblazer". The big screen adaptation stars Keanu Reeves as the title character who investigates supernatural mysteries. Rachel Weisz co-stars in the action based thriller.

"The Day After Tomorrow" (Fox)- 'ID4' director Roland Emmerich (this time without former partner Dean Devlin) delivers another big summer FX extravaganza. The trailers make this look VERY similar to 1998's "Deep Impact", so I'm not sure what sort of reception it's going to get once it hit theaters in May.

"Envy" (DreamWorks)- This dark comedy teams Jack Black with Ben Stiller. DreamWorks is expecting this one to perform like Black's 2003 hit "School of Rock" (it earned close to $80 million).

"Garfield" (Fox)- With comedian Bill Murray voicing the CG animated title character, Fox is counting on this one repeating the success of the first "Scooby Doo" movie. And yes, Fox wants to make this a franchise.

"Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban" (WB)- The first two films have earned over $1.8 billion worldwide so expect this one to be another monstrous hit in what is easily WB's most lucrative franchise.

"Hellboy" (Sony)- The big screen version of Dark Horse's popular comic should be an exciting ride once it hits theaters in April.

"Hidalgo" (Disney)- This action/adventure will be the first headlining role for 'Lord of the Rings' star Viggo Mortenson.

"Home on the Range" (Disney)- Disney's traditionally animated tale of the old west boasts the voice talents of Oscar winners Judi Dench and Cuba Gooding Jr. Sarah Michelle Parker and Randy Quaid also lend their voices to the project.

"I, Robot" (Fox)- Will Smith returns to his customary July launch with another sci-fi actioner. The movie is based on all 9 stories in the "I, Robot" analogies by the late writer Isaac Asimov. While "Big Willie" had to settle for a July 16th release (Spidey 2 took the July 4th opening), don't be surprised if this one ends up being another hit for Smith.

"The Incredibles" (Disney/Pixar)- The only thing that could keep this one from being the year's biggest hit is "The Polar Express".

"Jersey Girl" (Miramax)- Kevin Smith hopes to score his biggest hit yet with this comedy/drama. Ben Affleck hopes to shake off the box office disappointment of his last two movies ("Gigli" and "Paycheck").

"Kill Bill: Volume Two" (Miramax)- The sequel to last year's action opus from director Quentin Tarantino. Should be as big a hit as the first one was (nearly $70 million).

"King Arthur" (Disney)- Mega-producer Jerry Bruckheimer teams with director Antoine Fuqua for this re-telling of the tale of King Arthur. It'll be interesting to see how this one is received once it hit theaters in July.

"Ladder 49" (Disney)- John Travolta and Joaquin Phoenix focuses on a fireman (Phoenix) trapped in a fire that may end up killing him. He looks back on his life as he awaits his company (Laddy 49) to save him.

"The Ladykillers" (Disney)- Oscar winner Tom Hanks in the first of his 3 big 2004 releases. 'Ladykillers' teams him with the Coen brothers for the first time in this very broad comedy of a group of misfits trying to pull off a big heist. With Hanks starring, the Coen brothers could be in for the biggest hit they've ever had. Hanks has starred in 7 consecutive $100 million-plus performers (which is currently the record).

"Laws of Attraction" (New Line)- This romantic comedy stars Pierce Brosnan and Julianne Moore as two New York divorce lawyers end up getting married after a spending the night before getting drunk.

"Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events" (Paramount/DreamWorks)- The live action movie based on the children's books by Daniel Hadler. The movie boasts the talents of Jude Law, Jim Carrey and Oscar-winner Meryl Streep. Should end up being a solid hit.

"The Manchurian Candidate" (Paramount)- The remake to the 1962 film has Denzel Washington starring in the Frank Sinatra role. Washington is re-teaming with "Philadelphia" director Jonathan Demme. After 2003 yielded few hits for Paramount, the studio is hoping that one turns into a solid performer next fall.

"Man-Thing" (Artisan)- This action/horror flick is based on the Marvel Comics character of the same name. Artisan is hoping for a big enough hit that will warrant this one becoming a franchise.

"Man on Fire" (Fox)- Based on the novel by A.J. Quinnell, this one has star Denzel Washington playing an ex-Marine who is seeking revenge following the kidnapping (and possible murder) of the little girl (Dakota Fanning) of the family whom he was serving as a bodyguard.

"Meet the Fokkers" (Universal/DreamWorks)- The anticipated sequel to the 2000 comedy smash finally hits theaters next December. Robert De Niro, Ben Stiller, as well as the rest of the cast from the first film all will be returning for the sequel. It's not yet known who will be playing the Fokkers, but expect an announcement from Universal within the next few months.

"Monster-in-Law" (New Line)- Jennifer Lopez and Oscar winner Jane Fonda star in this romantic comedy about a young woman (Lopez) who finally meets Mr. Right, but has to deal with his VERY disapproving mother (Fonda).

"The Passion of the Christ" (Newmarket Film Group)- Oscar winning director Mel Gibson's controversial film depicting the last 12 hours of Christ's life has already made quite the stir in Tinseltown. It's not expected to be a big hit, but Gibson still has a lot riding on it.

"The Phantom of the Opera" (WB)- Director Joel Schumacher's big budget musical (based on the Broadway play by Andrew Lloyd Webber). WB is hoping for the same type of success which was achieved by Miramax's "Chicago" in 2002.

"The Polar Express" (WB)- WB's animated adventure based on the children's book by Chris Van Allsburg. Tom Hanks re-teams with Oscar-winning director Robert Zemeckis in what promises to be a huge holiday hit.

"The Princess Diaries 2" (Disney)- The sequel to the surprise 2001 hit re-teams stars Anne Hathaway, Oscar winner Julie Andrews and Hector Elizondo with director Garry Marshall.

"The Punisher" (Artisan)- The big screen adaptation to Marvel's popular comic book stars Thomas Jane in the title role and John Travolta as the bad guy. Personally, I thought the trailer was really weak and I'd be surprised if this one turned into a major hit, but that's just me.

"Resident Evil: Apocolypse" (Sony)- The sequel to the successful 2002 film once again finds star Milla Jovovich battling bloodthirsty zombies.

"Scooby Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed" (WB)- The sequel to the 2002 hit probably won't earn as much as the original ($153.2 million), but WB still is expecting big numbers.

"Shall We Dance?" (Miramax)- Jennifer Lopez stars opposite Richard Gere in this romantic comedy about a dance instructer (Lopez) whose new student (Gere) is hoping that the lessons save his troubled marriage. Susan Surandon, Stanley Tucci and Nick Cannon co-star. J-Lo might actually have a better year at the movies than her fiance.

"Shark Tale" (DreamWorks)- The latest CG animated flick from DreamWorks boasts the voice talents of Will Smith, Robert De Niro, Rene Zellweger, Angelina Jolie, Jack Black, Kevin Pollack, Peter Falk, and Martin Scorsese. This mafia meets "Finding Nemo" tale should be a big hit.

"Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow" (Paramount)- The sci-fi adventure stars Jude Law, Oscar winners Gwyneth Paltrow and Angelina Jolie. Judging from the trailer, this one looks like it's going to be loads of fun.

"Son of the Mask" (New Line)- Jamie Kennedy stars in this remake to Jim Carrey's 1994 hit movie.

"Spider-Man 2" (Sony)- Let's see, the first one opened to the tune of $114.8 million and became the fastest film in history to earn $100 million, $200 million and $300 million. I think it's safe to assume that the sequel will do pretty solid business.

"Starsky and Hutch" (WB)- The comedic big screen version of the popular cop show from the 1970s stars Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson in the title roles. Snoop Dog will be playing the role of Huggy Bear.

"The Stepford Wives" (Paramount)- This comedic (and very tongue-in-cheek) remake to the novel by Ira Levin (as well as the 1975 film) stars Nicole Kidman, Matthew Broderick, Bette Midler, Glenn Close, Christopher Walken, Faith Hill and Jon Lovitz. Frank Oz directs.

"Skipping Christmas" (Sony)- Tim Allen and Jamie Lee Curtis (fresh from her surprise hit "Freaky Friday") star in this holiday comedy based on the novel by John Grisham.

"Surviving Christmas" (DreamWorks)- Ben Affleck and Christina Applegate (who also co-stars in Will Ferrell's summer comedy "Anchorman") star in this romantic comedy.

"Taxi" (Fox)- Queen Latifah and Jimmy Fallon star in this action/comedy which finds Latifah becoming a famous taxi driver (due to the speeds she drives). She's recruited by an eager young police officer (Fallon) to help him catch a group of bank robbers using Latifah's freakish driving abilities.

"The Terminal" (DreamWorks)- Oscar winners Tom Hanks and Steven Spielberg team up for the third time (following the huge hits "Saving Private Ryan" and "Catch Me If You Can"). Hanks plays an immigrant who is forced to live in an airport terminal after war has ravaged his small country. Oscar winner Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chi McBride and Stanley Tucci co-star.

"Thunderbirds" (Universal)- Bill Paxton and Oscar winner Ben Kingsley star in this sci-fi action/adventure based on the popular British television series from the 1960s. "Star Trek" alum Jonathan Frakes directs.

"Troy" (WB)- WB's Trojan War epic from director Wolfgang Petersen stars Brad Pitt, Orlando Bloom, Eric Bana and Peter O'Toole. Many are expecting it to be this year's "Gladiator".

"Van Helsing" (Universal)- The latest from 'Mummy' director Stephen Sommers will be the movie to get begin Summer 2004. The movie stars Hugh Jackman in the title role and will see him battling Dracula, the Wolfman and Frankenstein's Monster. This one will probably be huge at the box office.

"The Village" (Disney)- The latest from director M. Night Shyamalan focuses on a village in 1897 surrounded by a dense forrest filled with mythical creatures.

"Walking Tall" (MGM)- The Rock's third effort on the big screen teams him with Johnny Knoxville in the action/comedy based on the dramatic film from the 1970s.

"The Whole Ten Yards" (WB)- The sequel to the surprise 2000 hit, which earned $57.2 million. Bruce Willis and Matthew Perry return for the follow-up.

"Win a Date with Ted Hamilton" (DreamWorks)- Kate Bosworth stars in this romantic comedy as a checkout girl who wins a date with Hollywood's biggest star, Ted Hamilton (played by newcomer Josh Duhamel). Things get complicated when she finds herself in the middle of a love triangle with Hamilton and her best friend Pete (played by Topher Grace).

There are, of course, other movies that I didn't add, but you get the picture. 2004 should be a very, very interesting year.

Wow, what a depressing list of films.

A crowded schedule. Not all these productions are gonna be hits. It'll be ineteresting to see which highly touted flicks underperform.

I'll be very interested in HP3's take. Not only is TPOA the best book so far, Cuaron is a far superior director to Columbus. The trailer is terrific.

I think people are overestimating Harry Potter. I'd love to be wrong but HP is a known quantity to most people and those not enamoured with parts 1 or 2 just aren't going to show for 3 no matter how improved it is. I think it will still be huge but fall slightly short of $300 million.

Spidey 2 I think will perform similar to Attack of the Clones- huge opening but ends up just over $300 million. Unlike Clones I don't think it will be perceived as a failure in the slightest. There isn't any significant backlash on the franchise yet and assuming they deliver a quality sequel (which looks to be the case)it will be suitably large but the increased competition during July compared to May two years ago will keep if from the original's lofty heights.

Polar Express is a bit of a question mark. Word of mouth will likely be great but I think they are making a mistake opening the week after The Incredibles. Parents having to choose between family films that weekend are likely to go with the guaranteed Disney-Pixar combo. A shot to the gut opening weekend will destroy any chanes of being a top holiday film even if week-to-week declines are small.

Sky Captain (which looks great) will bomb horribly, topping out less than $30 million.

Scooby Doo 2, like Tomb Raider 2, will be the sequel that no one wanted and will likely end up approx $70 million.

Hellboy will end up with less than $50 million, and likely closer to $30 million.

Kill Bill 2 will lose those turned off by the first one- Expect $50 million.

TerryRL, thank you for that great list of movies! I'm going to be referring to it often. I want to see about half the movies on the list.

I don't take predictions very seriously, but I like this thread because it gives me a heads-up to what's coming out.



My guess is that Sky Captain will be a surprise hit of 2004. Based on the trailer, I'm thinking it'll be inventive, interesting and lots of fun. I feel that the high-quality cast (Jude Law, Gwyneth Paltrow, Giovanni Ribisi and Angelina Jolie) must have had faith in the script and the director to sign on. Plus, Jude Law and Sadie Frost are produers, so Law has a stake in it above and beyond earning a quick paycheck. $150 million at least. This is the only prediction I'll make all year, so I hope I'm right!


Of course, "inventive, interesting and lots of fun" could also mean that people will stay away in droves because it's too weird-looking, and it will bomb.

Of course II, it could be a piece of trash and bomb miserably.

Of course III, it could be a piece of trash and be a big hit.

Spider-Man 2's opening date is July 2, 2004, so it will be coming out this year (the trailers have been pretty adamant about it).

Predictions based solely on TerryRL's list and descriptions. I haven't heard of many of these films, let alone seen trailers yet (don't watch much TV anymore and haven't been to the theater on a regular basis since last summer).

All subject to revision as release dates get closer.

"50 First Kisses" (Sony)- $109M (people like Adam Sandler, go figure)

"The Alamo" (Disney) - $72M

"Alien vs. Predator" (Fox)- $112M

"Along Came Polly" (Universal)- $85M

"Anchorman" (DreamWorks)- $110M (Can't see the appeal of WF either, but he connects with the masses).

"Around the World in 80 Days" (Disney)- $48M (outside "Rush Hour," Jackie Chan is a non-starter)

"The Aviator" (WB)- $58M

"Barbershop 2" (MGM)- $74M

"Blade: Trinity" (New Line)- $78M

"The Bourne Supremacy" (Universal)- $168M (can't wait for this one, TBI was a highlight of 2002).

"Catwoman" (WB)- $69M (Halle Berry in dominatrix costume, ick!)

"The Chronicles of Riddick" (Universal)- $39M (sequel in character only as far as I can see. Does anyone outside PB fans even know who Riddick is?)

"Cinderella Man" (Universal/Miramax)- $48M ("Ali" tanked, why would this do better?)

"Collateral" (DreamWorks)- $137M

"The Day After Tomorrow" (Fox)- $145M (I liked "Deep Impact" )

"Envy" (DreamWorks)- $57M (black comedy hasn't worked at the box office in a long time)

"Garfield" (Fox)- $62M (awful first trailer)

"Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban" (WB)- $282M
(best film/story to date, but possibly some HP fatigue setting in).

"Hellboy" (Sony)- $49M

"Hidalgo" (Disney)- $77M (don't like the trailer)

"I, Robot" (Fox)- $142M

"The Incredibles" (Disney/Pixar)- $258M

"Jersey Girl" (Miramax)- $38M

"Kill Bill: Volume Two" (Miramax)- $61M

"King Arthur" (Disney)- $171M

"The Ladykillers" (Disney)- $101M

"Laws of Attraction" (New Line)- $43M

"Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events" (Paramount/DreamWorks)- $162M (depends somewhat on the casting of the children, and if Jim Carrey doesn't chew every bit of scenery in frame).

"The Manchurian Candidate" (Paramount)- $77M

"Man on Fire" (Fox)- $48M

"Meet the Fokkers" (Universal/DreamWorks) - $152M (Stiller/Meara should be the Fokkers, of course)

"The Polar Express" (WB)- $123M (I don't understand all the hype/love for this based on the single teaser)

"The Punisher" (Artisan)- $42M

"Scooby Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed" (WB)- $97M

"Shark Tale" (DreamWorks)- $116M

"Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow" (Paramount)- $72M (revised $150M downward 1/2/04 after viewing trailer).

"Spider-Man 2" (Sony)- $327M (the first was a phenomenon, the second will do well but not match the first).

"Starsky and Hutch" (WB)- $28M (who asked for this one?)

"The Stepford Wives" (Paramount)- $93M

"The Terminal" (DreamWorks)- $121M

"Troy" (WB)- $188M

"Van Helsing" (Universal)- $254M (My most-anticipated for '04).

"The Village" (Disney)- $208M (If I hear the phrase "mythical creatures" again, I'll vomit.)

"Walking Tall" (MGM)- $52M

"The Whole Ten Yards" (WB)- $29M (again, who asked for this one?)

All in all, not an overly impressive menu for 2004 IMO.

Vicki I agree with your assessment about the film itself but I don't think the trailer plays well to audiences. The times I've seen it there has been a lot of snickering. I don't think the trailer does a good job of selling it to anyone not already predisposed to the material (which is a fairly niche audience). I think that Hellboy will fail for very similar reasons- a trailer that appeals only to those who would see it regardless.

My guesses:

Spider-Man 2: $350 million end take. Will break all opening weekend records.

Harry Potter: $300 million. Now that the saga of the Ring has ended and with the Harry Potter cast getting a bit older, I think this series will advance a bit more in terms of overall appeal.

Troy: $200 million.