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The Future Of DVD's?


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#1 of 44 OFFLINE   Jeremy Scott

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Posted April 05 2003 - 09:38 PM

How many more years do you think dvd's will be around for?

#2 of 44 OFFLINE   Cees Alons

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Posted April 06 2003 - 12:44 AM

Mmm. You don't have a crystal ball yourself?

OK:
It will be between 10 and 15 years. At the very least.
And by then other formats will be around, but players will still be downward compatible. And special equipment will make sure the "old" DVDs are displayed in the best manner then available.

There! My view.

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#3 of 44 OFFLINE   Sean Campbell

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Posted April 06 2003 - 04:21 AM

The discs themselves, if well looked after, will last a very long time ( but those snapper cases won't! ). Chances are that any future home formats will be backwardly compatable, the same way that many DVD players can also play VCDs. Don't worry, your collection is safe for at least the next two decades Posted Image

#4 of 44 OFFLINE   Chet_F

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Posted April 06 2003 - 05:51 AM

If you look at the life cycle of CD's I would say that DVD will be around for a total of 25-30 years at the very least. Cd's have been around for about 20+ years and I do not see them not being available in the next 5-10 years. The cd or dvd format may eventually be eclipsed by a competing format but that is years and years away. i'd be interested in some numbers on CD sales versus SACD or DVD audio if anyone knows a good resource.

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#5 of 44 OFFLINE   Patrick McCart

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Posted April 06 2003 - 05:52 AM

As long as people buy them.

#6 of 44 OFFLINE   Cees Alons

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Posted April 06 2003 - 05:57 AM

Quote:
( but those snapper cases won't! )
Disagree there!
ALL my books are made of cardboard an paper, most of them last for more than 20 years already. Some more than 40 years. NONE of my books is made of plastic.

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#7 of 44 OFFLINE   Charlie Essmeier

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Posted April 06 2003 - 06:21 AM

Quote:
As long as people buy them.


Well, that is what's keeping us from moving on to HD media. DVD was never intended to be a long term format; aside from a smaller size, it didn't do anything that laserdisc didn't, and laserdisc had not only run its course by 1997, but was rendered obsolete, along with DVD in 1998 with the introduction of HDTV.

The real question, given that DVD picture quality is no longer good enough for quality home theater, and DVD sound quality never was very good, is:

How quickly can we get rid of it?



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#8 of 44 OFFLINE   Sean Campbell

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Posted April 06 2003 - 10:25 AM

Quote:
ALL my books are made of cardboard an paper, most of them last for more than 20 years already. Some more than 40 years. NONE of my books is made of plastic


Yeah, I have some pretty old books myself - but books are generally thick and well bound. Snapper cases are just flimsy pieces of cardboard surrounding a plastic disc holder. They're much more fragile than the average paperback. It's all in how you take care of them I suppose. Incidently, anyone else hate it when the store places security or price tags on the front of a snapper? My copy of the Green Mile suffered a pretty nasty accident because of an ultra sticky price tag Posted Image

#9 of 44 OFFLINE   Vic_T

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Posted April 06 2003 - 10:48 AM

Snapper cases are just flimsy pieces of cardboard surrounding a plastic disc holder.


I would say that the plastic "snapping" part is the weak link in the snapper cases. The cardboard should hold up fine as long as you don't set your drinks on them.
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#10 of 44 OFFLINE   MarkHastings

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Posted April 06 2003 - 12:47 PM

Quote:
How many more years do you think dvd's will be around for?
Exactly 12 years, 4 months, 173 days, 5 hours, 28 minutes, and 23.8 seconds, give or take a few nano-seconds.

#11 of 44 OFFLINE   Malcolm R

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Posted April 06 2003 - 01:46 PM

DVD is the new VHS. VHS was with us for what, 20+ years? I think DVD will be around for a long time.
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#12 of 44 OFFLINE   Aaron Cohen

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Posted April 06 2003 - 03:37 PM

I disagree Charlie. I like my DVD's and think that you are a meanie.

#13 of 44 OFFLINE   Leif Wall

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Posted April 06 2003 - 04:30 PM

I disagree with Charlie also.

#14 of 44 OFFLINE   MarkHastings

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Posted April 06 2003 - 04:56 PM

I'll add my name to the list of "I disagree with Charlie".

#15 of 44 OFFLINE   Clinton McClure

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Posted April 06 2003 - 05:20 PM

Well, that is what's keeping us from moving on to HD media. DVD was never intended to be a long term format; aside from a smaller size, it didn't do anything that laserdisc didn't, and laserdisc had not only run its course by 1997, but was rendered obsolete, along with DVD in 1998 with the introduction of HDTV.

DVD has time and again given us not only a better picture, but also better sound than LD. There are some LDs which I believe are superior to DVD in one respect or another, but overall, DVD became the victor for those two main reasons and a whole list of other reasons. I also would not consider DVD obsolete because of HDTV. In many areas, HDTV is not available and will not be available until forced (if ever) by the FCC.

The real question, given that DVD picture quality is no longer good enough for quality home theater, and DVD sound quality never was very good, is:

How quickly can we get rid of it?


DVD picture and sound quality suits me fine until I see HD-DVD. (I'm skipping the DVHS craze for reasons which are my own.)

#16 of 44 OFFLINE   andrew markworthy

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Posted April 06 2003 - 05:49 PM

Quote:
Well, that is what's keeping us from moving on to HD media.

Do you mean 'high definition' or 'hard disc' in this instance? If the latter, then that's nonsensical, because until there's a staggering increase in affordable capacity, hard disc storage is limited in what it can take (or are you seriously suggesting we should be happy to own just one movie each?).

If the former, then you'll have a harder job persuading PAL than NTSC regions of the picture improvement.
I've seen HDTV demo'ed - against NTSC there is a big difference, I agree. Against PAL, there is an improvement, but to be honest, it's not all that wonderful.

Regardless of this, DVD is likely to stay simply because it has too strong a grip on the market.

What I would be far more concerned about is the future of the CD.

#17 of 44 OFFLINE   Qui-Gon John

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Posted April 07 2003 - 12:21 AM

Quote:
DVD is the new VHS. VHS was with us for what, 20+ years? I think DVD will be around for a long time.

I agree with this, and, sorry Charlie, I disagree with you as well.

Too many people are jsut getting into DVD, or just took the plunge in the last year or so, for us to see this go away anytime soon. I know in my own case, I only started getting into DVD's in late 2000. One key indicator of how the market was and has moved, at that time, Blockbuster (2 near me), only had a small selection of titles for rent on DVD. Mostly the newest releases and a few catalog titles. Now their inventory of catalog rentals has grown dramatically, (Still not what Netflix is, but what the heck), and we are seeing the death knell for VHS. For example, the recent (post holiday season) move by Best Buy to stop carrying VHS for sale. DVD is really just moving out of childhood and into it's prime.

#18 of 44 OFFLINE   nicholas_g

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Posted April 07 2003 - 01:39 AM

Quote:
I would say that the plastic "snapping" part is the weak link in the snapper cases. The cardboard should hold up fine as long as you don't set your drinks on them


A few of my cardboard snappers have worn around the spine of the cover where the it folds shut. You can see the white cardboard underneath the printed cover. I suppose it depends on how much you watch them and open and shut the cases.

#19 of 44 OFFLINE   Cees Alons

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Posted April 07 2003 - 05:49 AM

I disagree with Charlie too. One day they will undoubtedly start putting some sort of High Def content on DVDs, and they will change the laser some way or another (like they changed the needle when shellack became vinyl), but DVD will not be obsolete soon.
It was intended from the start to be one of the future digital storage media.

Cees

#20 of 44 OFFLINE   Jay Sylvester

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Posted April 07 2003 - 06:12 AM

I have to agree with Charlie. I can't wait for DVD to die. It's a great format for the masses, but once you've seen HD on a large display, you realize the shortcomings of DVD.

Quote:
DVD has time and again given us not only a better picture, but also better sound than LD.

That's silly. I'll agree with the better picture comment, but DVD soundtracks are a downgrade from LD soundtracks. Full bitrate DTS DVDs have become an extinct species, and that's the best the format has ever had to offer. And DVD has almost never made use of uncompressed PCM. Add the fact that a lot of DVD producers are downmixing movie soundtracks to make them more friendly to wimpy HTIB systems and you have the perfect recipe for mediocre sound.

Give me 1080p with MLP compression for 8-channel audio, and I'll be happy to send DVD packing.

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