Posted April 03 2003 - 09:06 AM
| First, economy does matter regardless of what other hirez labels sold in the past. |
Data please Lee. Namely show me conclusively Hi-res sold better before the down turn then today. Most people who own SACD players are probably well off as SACD is not included in standard cheap DVD players, meaning the spend more on their players and probably would have the $11.99 to buy the disc if it interested them.
Ok Lee, let me do a little math for you.
I will now do a pro-SACD calculation assuming every DSOTM disc sold was for the SACD layers. If 1 million SACD players have been sold and 20,000 DSOTM discs were sold the first week that comes to:
(20,000/1,000,000) *100= 2% of all owners of SACD players purchased what is argubly the biggest title to come to SACD in the first week. This small percentage is assuming the extreme example that every disc was indeed bought for the SACD layer, which is completely untrue. The actual number of people who bought it for SACD is even smaller.
| Third, how do you know those who had SACD players did not buy the hybrid for SACD capability? I bet 100% of the time they did. |
Using the comments from all of the Home Theater related boards as an indicator, it looks like everyone who is gung ho about Hi-res bought the disc the first week (myself included). This suggests that the largest SACD bump is already included in the sales numbers. Once again this shows with actual data that most people are not buying Hi-res, even those who own Hi-res players. Lee, 100% of 2% is still 2%, no matter how you spin it.
I am as pro-SACD as they come and want the format to succeed (I even did my calculations in an SACD biased manner), but I not wearing SACD colored glasses and trying to make out sales numbers to be more then what they are. DSOTM is nice to have in Hi-res, but sometimes perspective is needed before we all go overboard.
Posted April 03 2003 - 10:19 AM
| Data please Lee. Namely show me conclusively Hi-res sold better before the down turn then today. |
I don't have first week only numbers for the Stones so this would be difficult to do. The point is that the economy definitely has an impact on whether people use their discretionary income to buy CDs - this is well established.
| Most people who own SACD players are probably well off |
With a lot of $200-$500 players on the market, I think this becomes a big assumption.
| 2% of all owners of SACD players purchased what is argubly the biggest title to come to SACD in the first week |
This number excludes the major Internet sites which cater to the audiophile crowd so it is likely low or conservative to begin with. 21,000 copies is still very high for a hirez release (no DVDA have not topped 18,000 to my knowledge for entire sales run) and we are talking about a catalog title.
Here's some other math: It has been said that the album sells on average 8,000 copies per week. So this week we had a (21,000-8,000)/8,000 increase of 162% over normal. And we have consumer sentiment numbers at very low levels due to recession and a war.
The best math might be to look at the Stones series for first week sales, compare that to the current numbers sold (around 2 million according to Sony) and project out what DSOTM might do.
The real question may be what level of unit sales does EMI get excited about? What level of units would Pink Floyd like to see to start thinking about The Wall on Super Audio?
Sony wins either way - they get a "case study" of success to bring to other bands. Let's hope they are knocking on Paul McCartney's door.
| The SACD could very well have come from PCM masters, as it wouldn't make sense to remix everything to DSD if the PCM work was already completed. |