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*** Official "OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS ONLY" Thread


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#1 of 41 OFFLINE   Craig S

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Posted January 20 2003 - 01:07 AM

OK, folks, Oscar season is upon us, and it's time to test our prognosticating skills. Please use this thread to post your predictions for the Oscar nominations. The Academy will announce the nominees on February 11, so you've got three weeks to get your picks in.

To keep things clean, let's use this thread for predictions only. We have a lively discussion going in this thread, so join us there to talk about all things Oscar.

Following is the list of categories. The number in parens after each category is the maximum number of nominees for each category:
  • Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role (5)
  • Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role (5)
  • Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role (5)
  • Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role (5)
  • Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year (5)
  • Achievement In Art Direction (5)
  • Achievement In Cinematography (5)
  • Achievement In Costume Design (5)
  • Achievement In Directing (5)
  • Best Documentary Feature (5)
  • Best Documentary Short Subject (3)
  • Achievement In Film Editing (5)
  • Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year (5)
  • Achievement In Makeup (2)
  • Achievement In Music - Original Score(5)
  • Achievement In Music - Original Song (5)
  • Best Motion Picture Of The Year (5)
  • Best Animated Short Film (5)
  • Best Live Action Short Film (5)
  • Achievement In Sound (5)
  • Achievement In Sound Editing (3)
  • Achievement In Visual Effects (3)
  • Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published (5)
  • Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen (5)
Here are some useful links for Oscar watchers:

Official Academy site
Official Rules for the 75th Academy Awards

Several categories have announced lists of eligible films. Be sure to check these before making your picks in these categories:

Eligible films for Best Foreign Language Feature
Eligible films for Best Animated Feature
Eligible films for Visual Effects
Eligible films for Sound Editing
Eligible films for Documentary Feature

And only two films are eligible for the Makeup Oscar: Frida & The Time Machine!

Other random notes:
  • Remember, successful Oscar pickers choose what they think the Academy will do, NOT their own personal favorites.
  • You don't have to fill in all 24 categories. However, you should at the very least predict the Big Six (Picture, Director, and the four Acting categories).
  • As the Oscar climate will be changing often please feel free to edit your picks up until February 10.
  • I will be tabulating the posts to come up with the HTF Consensus picks (see 2 posts below). To keep my sanity Posted Image, I will be updating these three times - the next two weekends, and the final update on the evening of February 10th.
  • You may include one (and only one) Wild Card pick per category if you wish. Wild Cards will count 1/2 point when totaling the consensus.
  • Don't worry about projecting the eventual winner (although you may if you wish). After the noms are announced on Feb 11, I'll start another thread to gather predictions for the winners.
So let's get those predictions posted! Most importantly - have fun!

Three truths about movies, as noted by Roger Ebert:

 

* It's not what a movie is about, it's how it is about it.

* No good movie is too long, and no bad movie is short enough.

* No good movie is depressing, all bad movies are depressing.


#2 of 41 OFFLINE   Dana Fillhart

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Posted January 20 2003 - 01:26 AM

Dana's 2003 Oscars
Last Updated: 1 Feb 2003


Updates:
  • (1 Feb 2003) Added two more Animated titles; apparently five films are indeed eligible this year. Also fixed some additional minor inconsistencies.
  • (24 Jan 2003) Added the 2 remaining categories I accidentally skipped -- Short Films (Live and Animated),
  • (24 Jan 2003) For some reason I had About Schmidt in my "Perfect World" BP noms; I've changed it to what it should've been -- The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.
  • (22 Jan 2003) Changed Foreign Film selections to match eligible-films list.
CategoryPredicted NominationsIn a Perfect World...
Best Picture
About Schmidt
Chicago
Far from Heaven1a
The Hours1a
Gangs of New York

Adaptation.
Far from Heaven
Hable con Ella (Talk to Her)1b
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Sen to Chihiro no kamikakushi (Spirited Away)1b
Actor in a Leading Role
Adrian Brody (The Pianist)2a
Nicolas Cage (Adaptation.)2a
Michael Caine (The Quiet American)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York)
Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt)

Nicolas Cage (Adaptation.)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York)
Darío Grandinetti (Hable con Ella (Talk to Her))2b
Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt)
Sam Rockwell (Confessions of a Dangerous Mind)2b
Actor in a Supporting Role
Chris Cooper (Adaptation.)
Paul Newman (Road to Perdition)3a
Dennis Quaid (Far from Heaven)3a
John C. Reilly (Chicago)
Christopher Walken (Catch Me If You Can)3a

Chris Cooper (Adaptation.)
Dennis Haysbert (Far from Heaven)
Alfred Molina (Frida)
Viggo Mortensen (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers)
Andy Serkis (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers)3b
Actress in a Leading Role
Salma Hayek (Frida)
Diane Lane (Unfaithful)
Nicole Kidman (The Hours)4a
Julianne Moore (Far from Heaven)
Renée Zellweger (Chicago)4a

Salma Hayek (Frida)
Diane Lane (Unfaithful)
Julianne Moore (Far from Heaven)
Emily Mortimer (lovely and amazing)
Everlyn Sampi (Rabbit-Proof Fence)4b
Actress in a Supporting Role
Kathy Bates (About Schmidt)5a
Meryl Streep (Adaptation.)5a
Julianne Moore (The Hours)
Susan Sarandon (Igby Goes Down)5a
Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago)

Kathy Bates (About Schmidt)5b
Samantha Morton (Minority Report)5b
Meryl Streep (Adaptation.)5b
Maribel Verdú (Y Tu Mamá También (And Your Mother Too))5b
Emily Watson (Punch-Drunk Love)
Best Animated Feature Film6
Ice Age
Lilo & Stitch
Sen to Chihiro no kamikakushi (Spirited Away)
Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron
Treasure Planet

Ice Age
Lilo & Stitch
Metropolis (2001, Japan)6b
Sen to Chihiro no kamikakushi (Spirited Away)
Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron
Art Direction
Chicago
Far from Heaven
Gangs of New York
Hable con Ella (Talk to Her)
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Chicago
Far from Heaven
Gangs of New York
Hable con Ella (Talk to Her)
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Cinematography
Chicago
Far from Heaven
Gangs of New York
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Road to Perdition

Chicago
Far from Heaven
Gangs of New York
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Road to Perdition
Costume Design
Chicago
Far from Heaven
Frida
Gangs of New York
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Chicago
Far from Heaven
Frida
Gangs of New York
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Directing
Todd Haynes (Far from Heaven)
Peter Jackson (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers)
Rob Marshall (Chicago)
Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York)
Roman Polanski (The Pianist)7a

Pedro Almodóvar (Hable con Ella (Talk to Her))7b
Todd Haynes (Far from Heaven)
Peter Jackson (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers)
Spike Jonze (Adaptation.)
Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York)
Documentary - Feature8
Bowling for Columbine
The Kid Stays In The Picture
Standing In The Shadows Of Motown
?
?

Bowling for Columbine
The Kid Stays In The Picture
Standing In The Shadows Of Motown
?
?
Documentary - Short Subject8
?
?
?

?
?
?
Film Editing
Peter Boyle (The Hours)
D. Michael Horton and Jabez Olssen (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers)
Thelma Schoonmaker (Gangs of New York)
Martin Walsh (Chicago)
Eric Zumbrunnen (Adaptation.)

Peter Boyle (The Hours)
Stefan Ciupek, Sergei Ivanov, and Betina Kuntzsch (Russkij kovcheg (Russian Ark))
Thelma Schoonmaker (Gangs of New York)
Martin Walsh (Chicago)
Eric Zumbrunnen (Adaptation.)
Foreign Language Film
Brazil (Cidade de Deus (City of God))
China (Ying Xiong (Hero))
Croatia (Fine mrtve djevojke (Nice Dead Girls))
India (Devdas)
Mexico (El Crimen del Padre Amaro (The Crime of Father Amaro))9a

Brazil (Cidade de Deus (City of God))
France (The Pianist)
Japan (Sen to Chihiro no kamikakushi (Spirited Away))
Mexico (Y Tu Mamá También (And Your Mother Too))
Spain (Hable con Ella (Talk to Her))9b
Makeup
Ivana Primorac (The Hours)
Jordan Samuel (Chicago)
Jeremy Woodhead (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers)

Ivana Primorac (The Hours)
Jordan Samuel (Chicago)
Jeremy Woodhead (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers)
Music - Original Score
Elmer Bernstein (Far from Heaven)
Danny Elfman (Chicago)
Peter Gabriel (Rabbit-Proof Fence)
Howard Shore (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers)
John Williams (Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones)

Elmer Bernstein (Far from Heaven)
Danny Elfman (Chicago)
Peter Gabriel (Rabbit-Proof Fence)
Howard Shore (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers)
John Williams (Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones)
Music Original Song
Bono, "The Hands That Built America" (Gangs Of New York)
Eminem, "Lose Yourself" (8 Mile)
Elliot Goldenthal and Julie Taymor, "Burn This House" (Frida)
John Kander, "I Move On" (Chicago)10a
Emiliana Torrini, "Gollum's Song" (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers)

Bono, "The Hands That Built America" (Gangs Of New York)
Eminem, "Lose Yourself" (8 Mile)
Elliot Goldenthal and Julie Taymor, "Burn This House" (Frida)
John Kander, "I Move On" (Chicago)10b
Emiliana Torrini, "Gollum's Song" (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers)
Short Films - Animated11
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
Short Films - Live Action11
?
?
?
?
?

?
?
?
?
?
Sound
Chicago
Far from Heaven
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Spider-Man
Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones

Chicago
Far from Heaven
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Spider-Man
Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones
Sound Editing
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Minority Report
Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Minority Report
Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones
Visual Effects
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Minority Report
Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones
Writing - Adapted
Louis Begley (About Schmidt)
Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Stephen Sinclair, and Fran Walsh (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers)
David Hare (The Hours)
Charlie Kaufman (Confessions of a Dangerous Mind)
Charlie and Donald Kaufman (Adaptation.)

Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Stephen Sinclair, and Fran Walsh (The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers)
Jon Cohen and Scott Frank (Minority Report)
Charlie Kaufman (Confessions of a Dangerous Mind)
Charlie and Donald Kaufman (Adaptation.)
Christine Olsen(Rabbit-Proof Fence)
Writing - Original
Pedro Almodóvar (Hable con Ella (Talk to Her))7b
Paul Thomas Anderson (Punch-Drunk Love)
Jay Cocks, Steven Zaillian, and Kenneth Lonergan (Gangs of New York)
Antwone Fisher (Antwone Fisher)
Todd Haynes (Far from Heaven)

Pedro Almodóvar (Hable con Ella (Talk to Her))7b
Paul Thomas Anderson (Punch-Drunk Love)
Stéphane Cabel and Christophe Gans (Le Pacte de Loups (The Brotherhood of the Wolf))
Charlie and Donald Kaufman (Adaptation.)
Hayao Miyazaki (Sen to Chihiro no kamikakushi (Spirited Away))
TOTALS (112 positions)
01 - 8 Mile
04 - About Schmidt
05 - Adaptation.
01 - Antwone Fisher
01 - Bowling for Columbine
01 - Catch Me If You Can
13 - Chicago
01 - Cicade de Deus (City of God)
01 - Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
01 - El Crimen del Padre Amaro (The Crime of Father Amaro)
01 - Devdas
10 - Far from Heaven
01 - Fine mrtve djevojke (Nice Dead Girls)
03 - Frida
09 - Gangs of New York
02 - Hable con Ella (Talk to Her)
01 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
06 - The Hours
01 - Ice Age
01 - Igby Goes Down
01 - The Kid Stays in the Picture
01 - Lilo & Stitch
12 - The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
01 - Minority Report
02 - The Pianist
01 - Punch-Drunk Love
01 - The Quiet American
01 - Rabbit-Proof Fence
02 - Road to Perdition
01 - Sen to Chihiro no kamikakushi (Spirited Away)
01 - Spider-Man
01 - Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron
01 - Standing in the Shadows of Motown
04 - Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones
01 - Treasure Planet
01 - Unfaithful
01 - Ying Xiong (Hero)
15 - ?

01 - 8 Mile
03 - About Schmidt
08 - Adaptation.
01 - Bowling for Columbine
08 - Chicago
01 - Cicade de Deus (City of God)
02 - Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
09 - Far from Heaven
04 - Frida
07 - Gangs of New York
06 - Hable con Ella (Talk to Her)
02 - The Hours
01 - Ice Age
01 - Lilo & Stitch
01 - The Kid Stays in the Picture
13 - The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
01 - lovely and amazing
04 - Minority Report
01 - Le Pacte de Loups (The Brotherhood of the Wolf)
01 - Metropolis (2001, Japan)
01 - The Pianist
02 - Punch-Drunk Love
03 - Rabbit-Proof Fence
01 - Road to Perdition
01 - Russkij kovcheg (Russian Ark)
04 - Sen to Chihiro no kamikakushi (Spirited Away)
01 - Spider-Man
01 - Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron
01 - Standing in the Shadows of Motown
04 - Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones
01 - Unfaithful
02 - Y Tu Mamá También (And Your Mother Too)
15 - ?


  • 1a - I must concede Far from Heaven over The Two Towers at the moment (FFH I think is technically better, though only barely) -- the latter title has lost significant momentum, and this is the only other title the Academy could award that is actually better than other possibles; My Big Fat Greek Wedding has the high popularity that could ideally replace Towers, but it has nowhere near the quality of FFH, Towers, Pianist, or most any other title nominated by the Guilds and the GG's. Adaptation. is about the only one that gives me worries about being wrong, but I can see The Hours losing to Adaptation. if not enough of the Academy back it (from lack of knowledge about the film, though after the GG's it's less likely to miss a nom now).

  • 1b - I haven't seen Chicago nor The Hours, but I know enough about the former to have a severe problem giving my recommendation for it after having read Entertainment Weekly's explanation of Harvey Weinstein's meddling with the process (essentially Joe Sixpacking aspects of the film to broaden its appeal; makes me sick to my stomach); Hours has on the surface a subject matter that turns me off from extreme boredom. In an ideal situation, these foreign films released in the U.S. this year would be nominated instead.

  • 2a - In any other year, Tom Hanks would've had a shoe-in for his role in Road to Perdition. Personally, I don't think his performance there was Oscar level, so I'm very happy that these other two films are so strong in their lead performances (I'm only going on what I hear, though, for Brody in The Pianist, but I solidly back my prediction for Cage) to make this point moot. If Hanks does pull a nom out of his arse (Posted Image), though, I'll be unsurprised. Irritated, but unsurprised. The only other dark horse (and I mean no disrespectful pun in it) is Derek Luke for Antwone Fisher -- if he is nominated, it will likely be over Cage.

  • 2b - You gotta wonder why I chose these two over the two expected nominations that aren't in my ideal-world list. Well, to be honest I really felt that Quaid's performance was uneven in Far from Heaven, while Grandinetti's Marco really defined the flavor and direction of the film (Talk to Her), far more than Quaid did for FFH. I also felt Rockwell's role as Chuck Barris was so damned great (the perceived lack of insight to his motives was the script's fault, imho) that, having not seen The Pianist, I don't have a problem putting Rockwell in Brody's place.

  • 3a - I think this is this year's weakest category for runners-up -- Chris Cooper all but has a lock on the first position, but all four other places are wide open. Newman (though undeserving in my opinion) is very likely to get his first Supporting Role nom, but beyond that...? Reilly has strong support now with his nomination from the GG's, but I really don't think Harris' win there will translate to a nom -- I think Walken is the most likely for 5th place. However, it would not surprise me in the least to see the Academy give a semi-unexpected nod to Andy Serkis in this category, only because of the relatively weak playing field.

  • 3b - Ideally, I'd love to see Hasybert over Quaid for the FFH role; there was far more quality support from the Prez than the Rookie Posted Image Alfred Molina gave a tremendous performance, probably better than anybody except Cooper, but there's so little support right now for Frida that I really think Walken will win out. *Sigh* . . . if it weren't for the history of the Academy, I'd also expect Serkis to beat out Walken, but I guess I'll have to live with him here in my fantasy world of winners Posted Image

  • 4a - I've not seen either of these two performances, so I'm only going right now on the buzz. If one of these doesn't make it, expect Streep (The Hours) but not Zeta-Jones (Chicago; she'll be considered for supporting actress) to take the place.

  • 4b - You've got to see this girl's performance. If you don't walk away with bittersweet tears, I disown knowledge of your existence Posted Image -- but if you do come away affected by the film, you can thank the serene inner brilliance conveyed so effectively by Sampi.

  • 5a - A hard 5th spot to gauge on this category -- I expect the GG nom to carry over here, especially with other recognition elsewhere, and see Sarandon nom'd. If not her, then (at least I'd hope) Emily Watson (Punch-Drunk Love) would be recognized. As to who's on top, I expect Kathy Bates to win it, though I do believe Streep's performance is better (by a good margin).

  • 5b - Morton's performance is hands-down the best (in my opinion) for a supporting actress this year. But since the film she is in hasn't seen much in the way of accolades beyond some critics' circles, and the fact that she has a more prominent role in another film (Morvern Callar), I don't see the Academy giving her the credit due her for this role. Watch her actions in the room with Cruise and Binder (who plays Leo Crow) -- the scream she lets out is tremendously affecting. That one moment gives all her other scenes perfect definition, and reviewing them you see she has not only played the character consistently, but has given tremendous weight to the film as a whole -- without even the nuances she puts into her character, we'd be left with far less of a quality film, and I doubt as many critics would have found a way to put this film in their top 10. Bates' scenes in Schmidt practically steal the film she's in, too; I fully agree with my prediction in placing her in the top 5. Verdú, too, is phenomenal, and it's a shame that foreign films don't get as much weight in the heavy categories that Hollywood films do (though it is understandable -- it's the American Academy, after all), otherwise I'd expect Verdú to take her place in the Academy's top 5 for the year as well (Brody for The Pianist is happening only because of a huge groundswell for him combined with a relatively weak 5th-spot competition).
  • 6 - The 2002 Academy Awards for 2001 films was the first year this category was recognized. The rules state that if there are at least 8 but no more than 15 films tha meet the criteria for the category, 3 films can be nominated. If there are 16 or more, 5 films can be nominated. I am working under the assumption that there are less than 16 this year. Someone mentioned there were indeed over 16, so I've added two more eligible.
  • 6a/6b - I'm not 100% sure if Metropolis qualifies for the 2003 Oscars (for 2002 films) -- it *might* have been in the requisite theatres in 2001.
  • 7a - A tough one to call -- it could be this, Road to Perdition, or either one of Spielberg's two films, or even Alexandar Payne's About Schmidt. I doubt, though, Polanski will be recognized for The Pianist in place of Almodóvar, however.
  • 7b - Ideally, I'd like to see Talk to Her in place of Chicago or The Pianist, but that's my personal preference speaking.
  • 8 - Rules state there will be no less than three and no greater than five nominees for each Documentary Award category, whose outcome depends upon a particular weighted voting scheme that makes it impossible to determine ahead of time how many there will be; I'll therefore defer to last year's outcome and chooose 5 for Feature and 3 for Short. I also, having not seen ANY of them this year, have no frigging clue who to nominate at this point, except Moore's Columbine, which, at this point seems not only a shoe-in for nominee but winner as well.
  • 9a - If Y Tu isn't the film that is selected by Mexico, then I expect El Crimen del Padre Amaro to appear here, barely edging out India (Devdas) and China (Ying Xiong (Hero)). Well, since reading the actual list provided by Craig above, I found that all of my selections except Brazil's were not the ones submitted by their respective countries, so I've gone back and reworked them accordingly. The new result is now present.
  • 9b - It's a shame Spain did not enter this title, otherwise I would definitely have listed it in my predicted nominations.
  • 10a/10b - Too bad the rules are explicit on what qualifies for Best Song, otherwise I'd love to see "He Needs Me" (Punch-Drunk Love) put in here -- that song blended with and upheld the theme of the film more than any other this year, I felt (except maybe Bono's song for Gangs).
  • 11 - The rules allow anywhere between 3 and 5 nominations, but I'll go with the number from last year, and put down 5 for each

DVDs (24 Feb 2006): Discs - 2579, Titles - 1688 (Avg. 17 Titles/Month) • Films I've Seen: 20052004200320022001

#3 of 41 OFFLINE   Robert Crawford

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Posted January 20 2003 - 01:53 AM

This thread is now officially designated as the Oscar Nomination Predictions thread. Only Nomination predictions are allowed in this thread, all other discussion comments will be deleted.





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#4 of 41 OFFLINE   Craig S

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Posted January 20 2003 - 02:24 AM

Contents deleted by author.

Three truths about movies, as noted by Roger Ebert:

 

* It's not what a movie is about, it's how it is about it.

* No good movie is too long, and no bad movie is short enough.

* No good movie is depressing, all bad movies are depressing.


#5 of 41 OFFLINE   Craig S

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Posted January 20 2003 - 03:10 AM

Craig's Picks
These are my final picks! Wild cards are in italics.

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Adrian Brody - The Pianist
Nicholas Cage - Adaptation
Michael Caine - The Quiet American
Daniel Day-Lewis - Gangs Of New York
Jack Nicholson - About Schmidt
Richard Gere - Chicago

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Chris Cooper - Adaptation
Dennis Quaid - Far From Heaven
Paul Newman - Road To Perdition
John C. Reilly - Chicago
Christopher Walken - Catch Me If You Can
Alfred Molina - Frida

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Nicole Kidman - The Hours
Diane Lane - Unfaithful
Julianne Moore - Far From Heaven
Meryl Streep - The Hours
Renee Zellweger - Chicago
Salma Hayek - Frida

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Kathy Bates - About Schmidt
Julianne Moore - The Hours
Susan Sarandon - Igby Goes Down
Meryl Streep - Adaptation
Catherine Zeta-Jones - Chicago
Queen Latifah - Chicago

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Ice Age
Lilo And Stitch
Spirit: Stallion Of The Cimarron
Spirited Away
Treasure Planet
The Wild Thornberries Movie

Achievement In Art Direction
Chicago
Far From Heaven
Gangs Of New York
The Hours
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
Frida

Achievement In Cinematography
Michael Ballhaus - Gangs Of New York
Pawel Edelman - The Pianist
Conrad Hall - Road To Perdition
Edward Lachman - Far From Heaven
Rodrigo Prieto - Frida
Andrew Lesnie - The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers

Achievement In Costume Design
Chicago
Far From Heaven
Frida
Gangs Of New York
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
Road To Perdition

Achievement In Directing
Stephen Daldry - The Hours
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
Rob Marshall - Chicago
Roman Polanski - The Pianist
Martin Scorsese - Gangs Of New York
Spike Jonze - Adaptation

Best Documentary Feature
Amandla! A Revolution In Four-Part Harmony
Blind Spot: Hitler's Secretary
Bowling For Columbine
The Kid Stays In The Picture
Standing In The Shadows Of Motown

Best Documentary Short Subject

Achievement In Film Editing
Adaptation
Chicago
Gangs Of New York
The Hours
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
Minority Report

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
8 Women - France
City Of God - Brazil
The Crime Of Father Amaro - Mexico
Devdas - India
Hero - China

Achievement In Makeup
Frida
The Time Machine

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Elmer Bernstein - Far From Heaven
Peter Gabriel - Rabbit-Proof Fence
Philip Glass - The Hours
Elliot Goldenthal - Frida
John Williams - Catch Me If You Can
Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
Bono, "The Hands That Built America" - Gangs Of New York
Eminem, "Lose Yourself" - 8 Mile
Elliot Goldenthal & Julie Taymor, "Burn It Blue" - Frida
Kander & Ebb, "I Move On" - Chicago
Paul Simon, "Father & Daughter" - The Wild Thornberries Movie
Bryan Adams, "Here I Am" - Spirit: Stallion Of The Cimarron

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
Chicago
Gangs Of New York
The Hours
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
The Pianist
My Big Fat Greek Wedding

Best Animated Short Film

Best Live Action Short Film

Achievement In Sound
Chicago
Gangs Of New York
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
Road To Perdition
Star Wars Episode II: Attack Of The Clones
Spider-Man

Achievement In Sound Editing
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
Minority Report
Road To Perdition

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
Minority Report
Star Wars Episode II: Attack Of The Clones

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Bill Condon - Chicago
Charlie & Donald Kaufman - Adaptation
David Hare - The Hours
Ronald Harwood - The Pianist
Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor - About Schmidt
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Stephen Sinclair & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Pedro Almodovar - Talk To Her
Jay Cocks, Kenneth Lonergan & Steven Zallian - Gangs Of New York
Antwone Fisher - Antwone Fisher
Todd Haynes - Far From Heaven
Nia Vardalos - My Big Fat Greek Wedding
P. T. Anderson - Punch-Drunk Love

Final Counts
Chicago: 11
Gangs Of New York: 10
The Hours: 9
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers: 8
Far From Heaven: 7
Adaptation: 5
Frida: 5
The Pianist: 5
Road To Perdition: 4
About Schmidt: 3
Catch Me If You Can: 2
Star Wars Episode II: Attack Of The Clones: 2
8 Mile: 1
Antwone Fisher: 1
Igby Goes Down: 1
Minority Report: 1
The Quiet American: 1
Rabbit-Proof Fence: 1
Talk To Her: 1
Unfaithful: 1
The Wild Thornberries Movie: 1

Three truths about movies, as noted by Roger Ebert:

 

* It's not what a movie is about, it's how it is about it.

* No good movie is too long, and no bad movie is short enough.

* No good movie is depressing, all bad movies are depressing.


#6 of 41 OFFLINE   Arman

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Posted January 20 2003 - 03:34 AM

Note: This was finalized after Craig S made the final tabulations of all the picks in this thread.

Best Motion Picture Of The Year

Adaptation.
Chicago
The Hours
Lord of The Rings: The Two Towers
The Pianist (Winner) - or like Talk To Her possibly One of 2002 Oscar's Sins of Omission

Dream Pick: Talk To Her
Darkhorses: About Schmidt & Gangs of New York
Longshot/Wildcard: Antwone Fisher, Road To Perdition, Far From Heaven
Bad Pick: MBFGW
My Personal Best Picks: The Pianist, Talk To Her, Adaptation., Minority Report, LOTR:TTT

Achievement In Directing
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Spike Jonze, Adaptation.
Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York (Winner)
Roman Polanski, The Pianist
Pedro Almodovar, Talk To Her

Darkhorses: Stephen Daldry, The Hours, Denzel Washington, Antwone Fisher
& Rob Marshall, Chicago
Longshot/Wildcard: George Clooney, Confessions of A Dangerous Mind, Sam Mendes, Road To Perdition, Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven

Only The Pianist & The Lord of The Rings & their directors will be nominated for both Best Picture & Best Director!

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Nicolas Cage, Adaptation
Derek Luke, Antwone Fisher (Michael Caine 6th) / or My Dream Pick, Javier Camara, Talk To Her
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York (Winner)
Adrien Brody, The Pianist
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt

Dream Pick: Javier Camara, Talk To Her
Darkhorses: Michael Caine, The Quiet American & Richard Gere, Chicago
Longshot/Wildcard: Sam Rockwell, Confessions of A Dangerous Mind, Edward Norton, 25th Hour, Tom Hanks, Road To Perdition

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Chris Cooper, Adaptation - He'll win if Gere will not be nominated here
Ed Harris, The Hours
Paul Newman, Road to Perdition
Dennis Quaid, Far From Heaven
Richard Gere, Chicago (Winner) - If not replaced him with John C. Reiley

Darkhorses: Denzel Washington, Antwone Fisher, John C. Reiley, Chicago

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Nicole Kidman, The Hours
Diane Lane, Unfaithful
Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven (Winner)
Meryl Streep, The Hours
Rene Zellweger, Chicago

Darkhorse: Selma Hayek, Frida
Longshot: My Big Fat Greek Wedding & Jennifer Anniston, The Good Girl, Evelyn Sampi, The Rabbit-Proof Fence

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Julianne Moore, The Hours
Susan Sarandon, Moonlight Mile
Meryl Streep, Adaptation (Winner)
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
Darkhorses: Samantha Morton, Minority Report, Patricia Clarkson, Far From Heaven, Viola, Antwone Fisher

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Ice Age
Lilo and Stitch
Spirited Away (Winner)
If more then 3 will be nominated -
Stuart Little 2 ?
Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron?

Achievement In Art Direction
Chicago
Far From Heaven
Frida (Darkhorse: Talk To Her)
Gangs of New York
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Achievement In Cinematography

Far From Heaven
Gangs of New York
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Minority Report
Road To Perdition

Achievement In Costume Design
Chicago
Far From Heaven
Frida
Gangs of New York
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Best Documentary Feature
Blind Spot: Hitler's Secretary
Bowling For Columbine
The Kid Stays In The Picture
Standing In The Shadows Of Motown
Winged Migration

Best Documentary Short Subject
?
?
?
?
?

Achievement In Film Editing
Adaptation
Chicago
Gangs of New York (Darkhorse: Talk To Her)
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year (toss-up beyween City of God vs. Nowhere in Africa)
8 Women - France
City of God - Brazil
Nowhere in Africa
Hero - China
Crime of Father Amaro - Mexico
Darkhorse: Mondays in the Sun


Achievement In Makeup
Frida
Time Machine

Achievement In Music - Original Score
Catch Me If You Can
Far From Heaven
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Rabbit-Proof Fence

Achievement In Music - Original Song
I Move On, Chicago
The Hands That Built America, Gangs Of New York
Lose Yourself, 8 Mile
Die Another Day, Die Another Day

Best Animated Short Film
?
?
?
?
?

Best Live Action Short Film
?
?
?
?
?

Achievement In Sound
Gangs of New York
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Minority Report
Star Wars: Attack of the Clones
We Were Soldiers

Achievement In Sound Editing
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Minority Report
We Were Soldiers

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Minority Report
Star Wars: Attack of the Clones

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Adaptation.
Chicago
The Hours
The Pianist
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Darkhorse: About Schmidt

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Antwone Fisher
Far From Heaven
Punch-Drunk Love
Talk TO Her
Confessions of A Dangerous Mind
Darkhorse: My Big Fat Greek Wedding & GONY

#7 of 41 OFFLINE   Paul_D

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Posted January 20 2003 - 07:01 AM

Placeholder!
[c][/c]
[c]"Where did you take, this girl Jerry?"[/c]

#8 of 41 OFFLINE   Matt Stone

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Posted January 20 2003 - 07:08 AM

Placeholder...
In Heaven, everything is fine.
[ 2006 Films | 2005 Films | 2004 Films | 2003 Films | YMDB Top 20 ]
[ Star Wars | Sideshow | HT | DVDs | LDs | AIM: Maulrat87 ]

#9 of 41 OFFLINE   Adam_S

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Posted January 20 2003 - 07:46 AM

I'm not sure that I can pick five for every category right now, so I'm going to put (p) for placeholder in those spaces where I don't have enough noms. an asterix will mark what I believe will win


Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role (5)
Daniel Day Lewis - Gangs of New York *
Jack Nicholsen - About Shmidt
Adrian Brody - The Pianist
Nicholas Cage - Adaptation
Micheal Caine - The Quiet American

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role (5)
Paul Newman - Road to Perdition*
Chris Cooper - Adaptation
Christopher Walken - Catch Me if you Can
John C Rieley - Chicago
Andy Serkis - The Two Towers

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role (5)
Julianne Moore - Far From Heaven*
Nicole Kidman - The Hours
Renee Zellweger - Chicago
Selma Hayek - Frida
Meryl Streep - The Hours


Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role (5)
Kathy Bates - About Schmidt*
Meryl Streep - Adaptation
Catherine Zeta Jones - Chicago
Julianne Moore - The Hours
Emily Watson - Punch Drunk Love

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year (5)
Spirited Away*
Lilo And Stitch
Ice Age
The Wild Thornberrys
Spirit: Stallion of Cimarron


Achievement In Art Direction (5)
Gangs of New York*
The Two Towers
Chicago
Catch Me if You Can
Star Wars: Attack of the Clones


Achievement In Cinematography (5)
Road to Perdition*
Chicago
The Two Towers
Gangs of New York
The Pianist

Achievement In Costume Design (5)
Chicago*
Gangs of New York* (I can't decide which will take it right now)
The Two Towers
Catch Me if You Can
Far From Heaven

Achievement In Directing (5)
Martin Scorsese - Gangs of New York*
Peter Jackson - The Two Towers
Roman Polanski - The Pianist
Rob Marshall - Chicago
Stephen Daldry - The Hours
(one or both of the bottom two could be knocked off by Spike Jones or Alexander Payne vastly hurting their BP chances)

Best Documentary Feature (5)
Bowling For Columbine*
Standing in the Shadows of Motown
The Kid Stays in the Picture
Nayqoyqatsi
Blind Spot Hitler's Secretary


Best Documentary Short Subject (3)
(p)
(p)
(p)

Achievement In Film Editing (5)
The Two Towers*
Adaptation
Chicago
Gangs of New York
The Pianist

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year (5)
City of God - Brazil
Hero - China
Crime of Father Amaro - Mexico
Fine Dead Girls - Croatia
Devdas - India
I'm thinking Mondays in the Sun could pull off a nomination, but that would be three hispanic films and no asian films, tsk tsk, must respect diversity.
I'm Taraneh, 15 - Iran could replace Dead Girls as the requisite film from a 3rd world country.

Achievement In Makeup (3)
Not presented


Achievement In Music - Original Score(5)
John Williams - Catch Me if you Can*
Howard Shore - The Two Towers
Far From Heaven - Elmer Bernstein
Philip Glass - The Hours
John Williams - Star Wars: Attack of the Clones

Achievement In Music - Original Song (5)
Gollum's Song - The Two Towers* (hey a guy can dream can't he?)
The Hands that Built America - Gangs of New York
Lose Yourself - 8 Mile
I Move On - Chicago
Father and Daughter - Wild Thornberries

Best Motion Picture Of The Year (5)
Gangs of New York*
The Pianist*
Chicago
The Hours
The Two Towers
predicting that one of those two films will upset and win

Best Animated Short Film (5)
(p)x5

Best Live Action Short Film (5)
(p)x5

Achievement In Sound (5)
The Two Towers*
Star Wars: Attack of the Clones
We Were Soldiers
Gangs of New York
Chicago
(Signs as an upset for WWS)

Achievement In Sound Editing (3)
The Two Towers*
Road to Perdition
We Were Soldiers


Achievement In Visual Effects (3)
Star Wars: Attack of the Clones*
The Two Towers
Minority Report

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published (5)
Adaptation*
About Schmidt
The Two Towers
Chicago
The Hours

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen (5)
Punch Drunk Love*
Talk To Her
Far From Heaven
Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
Gangs of New York

---
well those are all my crazy picks, I tried to work in several upsets in the nominations, I also don't think/am hoping that neither Chicago or The Hours win, which I know will be a very unpopular prediction. however if you look at the number of nominations I gave it worked out so that my picks for best picture coincided with the top five nomination garnerers (not deliberate), of course Adaptation could upset The Pianist, but I'm Giving the Pianist an edge because of Roman Polanski...:

The Two Towers (14)-- bordering on ridiculous, but I'm biased, I suppose, I expect it to win no more than five, all technical
Chicago (13) -- which is clearly too many, maybe drop the sound awards
Gangs of New York (10)
The Hours (8)
The Pianist (5)
Adaptation (5)
Star Wars: Attack of the Clones (5)
Far From Heaven (4)
About Schmidt (3)
Catch Me if You Can (3)
Road to Perdition (2)
Punch Drunk Love (2)
The Wild Thornberries (2)
The Quiet American (1)
Minority Report (1)
Spirited Away (1)
Ice Age (1)
Lilo and Stitch (1)
Spirit (1)
Standing in the Shadows of Motown (1)
Bowling for Columbine (1)
The Kid Stays in the Picture (1)
City of God (1)
Talk to Her (1)
8 mile (1)
Confessions of a Dangerous Mind (1)
Frida (1)
We Were Soldiers (2)
 

#10 of 41 OFFLINE   Ray H

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Posted January 20 2003 - 09:23 AM

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Adrien Brody, The Pianist
Nicolas Cage, Adaptation
Michael Cane, The Quiet American
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Chris Cooper, Adaptation
Paul Newman, Road to Perdition
Dennis Quaid, Far From Heaven
Andy Serkis, The Lord of the Rings: The Two TowersPosted Image
Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Salma Hayek, Frida
Nicole Kidman, The Hours
Diane Lane, Unfaithful
Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
Rene Zellweger, Chicago

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Patricia Clarkson, Far From Heaven
Julianne Moore, The Hours
Meryl Streep, Adaptation
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Ice Age
Lilo and Stitch
Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron
Spirited Away
Treasure Planet

Achievement In Art Direction
Chicago
Far From Heaven
Gangs of New York
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Road To Perdition

Achievement In Cinematography
Chicago
Far From Heaven
Gangs of New York
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Road To Perdition

Achievement In Costume Design
Chicago
Far From Heaven
Gangs of New York
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Frida

Achievement In Directing
Stephen Daldry, The Hours
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Rob Marshall, Chicago
Roman Polanski, The Pianist
Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York

Best Documentary Feature
Bowling For Columbine
The Kid Stays In The Picture
Standing In The Shadows Of Motown
---
---

Best Documentary Short Subject

Achievement In Film Editing
Adaptation
Chicago
Gangs of New York
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
City of God
Hero
----
----
----

Achievement In Makeup
Frida
The Time Machine

Achievement In Music - Original Score
Catch Me If You Can
Far From Heaven
Frida
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Achievement In Music - Original Song
I Move On, Chicago
The Hands That Built America, Gangs Of New York
Lose Yourself, 8 Mile
Gollum's Song, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Father and Daughter, The Wild Thornberries

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
Chicago
Gangs of New York
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
The Pianist

Best Animated Short Film (5)

Best Live Action Short Film (5)

Achievement In Sound
Gangs of New York
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Signs
Star Wars: Attack of the Clones
We Were Soldiers

Achievement In Sound Editing
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Minority Report
We Were Soldiers

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Minority Report
Star Wars: Attack of the Clones

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
About Schmidt
Adaptation
Chicago
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Antwone Fisher
Far From Heaven
Gangs of New York
Punch-Drunk Love
Talk To Her
"Here's looking at you, kid."

 


#11 of 41 OFFLINE   MichaelPe

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Posted January 20 2003 - 10:03 AM

Placeholder

#12 of 41 OFFLINE   Bill J

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Posted January 20 2003 - 10:14 AM

[c]2003 Oscar Nomination Predictions[/c]
Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Adrian Brody - The Pianist
Nicholas Cage - Adaptation.
Michael Caine - The Quiet American
Daniel Day-Lewis - Gangs Of New York
Jack Nicholson - About Schmidt

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Chris Cooper - Adaptation.
Dennis Quaid - Far From Heaven
Paul Newman - Road To Perdition
John C. Reilly - Chicago
Christopher Walken - Catch Me If You Can

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Nicole Kidman - The Hours
Diane Lane - Unfaithful
Julianne Moore - Far From Heaven
Meryl Streep - The Hours
Renee Zellweger - Chicago

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Kathy Bates - About Schmidt
Meryl Streep - Adaptation.
Julianne Moore - The Hours
Susan Sarandon - Igby Goes Down
Catherine Zeta-Jones - Chicago

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Ice Age
Lilo and Stitch
Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron
Spirited Away
Treasure Planet

Achievement In Art Direction
Chicago
Far From Heaven
Frida
Gangs Of New York
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers

Achievement In Cinematography
Michael Ballhaus - Gangs of New York
Dion Beebe - Chicago
Conrad Hall - Road To Perdition
Edward Lachman - Far From Heaven
Andrew Lesnie - The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers

Achievement In Costume Design
Chicago
Far From Heaven
Frida
Gangs Of New York
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers

Achievement In Directing
Stephen Daldry - The Hours
Todd Haynes - Far From Heaven
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
Rob Marshall - Chicago
Martin Scorsese - Gangs Of New York

Best Documentary Feature
Blind Spot: Hitler's Secretary
Bowling For Columbine
The Kid Stays In The Picture
Prisoner of Paradise
Standing In The Shadows Of Motown

Best Documentary Short Subject
-
-
-

Achievement In Film Editing
Peter Boyle - The Hours
D. Michael Horton and Jabez Olssen - The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Thelma Schoonmaker - Gangs of New York
Martin Walsh - Chicago
Eric Zumbrunnen - Adaptation.

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
8 Women
The Crime of Father Amaro
City of God
Spirited Away
Y Tu Mamá También

Achievement In Makeup
Frida
The Time Machine

Achievement In Music - Original Score
Elmer Bernstein - Far From Heaven
Philip Glass - The Hours
Elliot Goldenthal - Frida
Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
John Williams - Catch Me If You Can

Achievement In Music - Original Song
Bono, "The Hands That Built America" - Gangs Of New York
Eminem, "Lose Yourself" - 8 Mile
Elliot Goldenthal & Julie Taymor, "Burn This House" - Frida
Kander & Ebb, "I Move On" - Chicago
Paul Simon, "Father & Daughter" - The Wild Thornberries Movie

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
About Schmidt
Chicago
Gangs Of New York
The Hours
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers

Best Animated Short Film
-
-
-
-
-

Best Live Action Short Film
-
-
-
-
-

Achievement In Sound
Chicago
Gangs Of New York
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
Star Wars Episode II: Attack Of The Clones
We Were Soldiers

Achievement In Sound Editing
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
Minority Report
We Were Soldiers

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Bill Condon - Chicago
Charlie & Donald Kaufman - Adaptation.
David Hare - The Hours
Alexander Payne - About Schmidt
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Stephen Sinclair & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
P. T. Anderson - Punch-Drunk Love
Pedro Almodovar - Talk To Her
Jay Cocks, Kenneth Lonergan & Steven Zallian - Gangs Of New York
Antwone Fisher - Antwone Fisher
Todd Haynes - Far From Heaven


#13 of 41 OFFLINE   Nick Sievers

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Posted January 21 2003 - 02:01 AM

I may as well get in line as well.
Top 10 Film Lists: 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004
Film Lists: 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005

#14 of 41 OFFLINE   DaveGR

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Posted January 21 2003 - 04:57 AM

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Daniel Day-Lewis- Gangs of New York*
Jack Nicholson- About Schmidt
Adrian Brody- The Pianist
Michael Caine-The Quiet American
Tom Hanks-Road To Perdition

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Paul Newman-Road to Perdition
Ed Harris-The Hours
Chris Cooper-Adaptation*
Christopher Walken-Catch Me If You Can
Dennis Quaid-Far From Heaven

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Julianne Moore-Far From Heaven*
Selma Hyack- Frida
Nicole Kidman-The Hours
Renee Zelwiger-Chicago
Meryl Streep-The Hours

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Kathy Bates-About Schmidt*
Meryl Streep-Adaptation
Catherine Zeta Jones-Chicago
Julia Roberts-Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
Queen Latifah-Chicago

Achievement In Directing
Martin Scorsese-Gangs of New York*
Stephen Daldry-The Hours
Peter Jackson-Lord of the Rings Two Towers
Roman Polanski-The Pianist
Alexander Payne-About Schmidt

Best Film
Gangs of New York*
The Hours
The Pianist
About Schmidt
Chicago

thoes with * are my predictions for winners

#15 of 41 OFFLINE   Mark Zimmer

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Posted January 21 2003 - 07:51 AM

I predict that Two Towers will win only for Best Visual Effects due to the already-begun backlash.

#16 of 41 OFFLINE   Dana Fillhart

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Posted January 21 2003 - 08:08 AM

Finally got my data correct in my table...argh, mistakes! Posted Image Should be fine now.

I have Chicago (13), Two Towers (12), Far from Heaven (10), and Gangs (9) leading the pack with number of awards -- yes, I know many don't have faith in FFH any more: I guess I'm somewhat holding out a little, expecting this one still to take away from The Hours in some of the non-major categories.

I do expect Towers to pull more than just Visual Effects, but yeah, it's hard to see it winning anything other than the hard technical (i.e., I doubt it'll even win Costume or Makeup or Art Direction this year). Still, it'd be nice to see it upset Gangs for Best Song or (dare I say) Best Director. What would just make my day on February 11th would be to see Andy Serkis get the 5th-spot nomination for Best Supporting Actor.

Other categories that'd tickle me silly to see a nomination: Miyazaki for Best Original Screenplay, Emily Watson for Best Supporting Actress, and Everlyn Sampi for Best Actress...and the biggest wish would go to: Samantha Morton, Best Supporting Actress for Minority Report. That last would have me on cloud nine 'til Oscar night! Posted Image

(Edit: D'oh, I had forgotten to include Best Costume Design! Altered my #'s I mentioned above to reflect that. There are actually an even 100 slots available for films to fill!)

DVDs (24 Feb 2006): Discs - 2579, Titles - 1688 (Avg. 17 Titles/Month) • Films I've Seen: 20052004200320022001

#17 of 41 OFFLINE   Craig S

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Posted January 26 2003 - 04:55 PM

HTF Consensus Picks

Here is the first weekly tabulation of picks made by posters in this thread. Only the top 5 (or 3 when appropriate) picks are shown.

The next tabulation will be a week from tonight (Sunday, February 2).

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Adrian Brody - The Pianist (6.5)
Nicholas Cage - Adaptation (6)
Michael Caine - The Quiet American (7)
Daniel Day-Lewis - Gangs Of New York (7)
Jack Nicholson - About Schmidt (7)

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Chris Cooper - Adaptation (7)
Dennis Quaid - Far From Heaven (6)
Paul Newman - Road To Perdition (7)
John C. Reilly - Chicago (4)
Christopher Walken - Catch Me If You Can (6)

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Nicole Kidman - The Hours (7)
Diane Lane - Unfaithful (5)
Julianne Moore - Far From Heaven (7)
Meryl Streep - The Hours (5)
Renee Zellweger - Chicago (7)

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Kathy Bates - About Schmidt (7)
Julianne Moore - The Hours (5)
Susan Sarandon - Igby Goes Down (2) or Moonlight Mile (2)
Meryl Streep - Adaptation (7)
Catherine Zeta-Jones - Chicago (7)

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Ice Age (6)
Lilo And Stitch (5)
Spirit: Stallion Of The Cimarron (5)
Spirited Away (6)
Treasure Planet (3)

Achievement In Art Direction
Chicago (6)
Far From Heaven (5)
Frida (3)
Gangs Of New York (6)
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers (6)

Achievement In Cinematography
Michael Ballhaus - Gangs Of New York (5)
Dion Beebe - Chicago (5)
Conrad Hall - Road To Perdition (6)
Edward Lachman - Far From Heaven (5)
Andrew Lesnie - The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers (6)

Achievement In Costume Design
Chicago (6)
Far From Heaven (6)
Frida (5)
Gangs Of New York (6)
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers (6)

Achievement In Directing
Stephen Daldry - The Hours (6)
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers (7)
Rob Marshall - Chicago (6)
Roman Polanski - The Pianist (4.5)
Martin Scorsese - Gangs Of New York (7)

Best Documentary Feature
Blind Spot: Hitler's Secretary (4)
Bowling For Columbine (6)
The Kid Stays In The Picture (6)
Standing In The Shadows Of Motown (5)
Fifth Position Tie:
Prisoner Of Paradise (1)
Naqoyqatsi (1)

Best Documentary Short Subject

Achievement In Film Editing
Adaptation (6)
Chicago (6)
Gangs Of New York (6)
The Hours (5)
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers (6)

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
8 Women - France (3)
City Of God - Brazil (6)
The Crime Of Father Amaro - Mexico (4)
Hero - China (3)
Fifth Position Tie:
Nice Dead Girls - Croatia (2)
Devdas - India (2)

Achievement In Makeup
Chicago (5)
The Hours (6)
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers (6)

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Elmer Bernstein - Far From Heaven (6)
Philip Glass - The Hours (5)
Elliot Goldenthal - Frida (3)
Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers (6)
John Williams - Catch Me If You Can (5)

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
Bono, "The Hands That Built America" - Gangs Of New York (6)
Eminem, "Lose Yourself" - 8 Mile (6)
Kander & Ebb, "I Move On" - Chicago (6)
Paul Simon, "Father & Daughter" - The Wild Thornberries Movie (4)
Fifth Position Tie:
Elliot Goldenthal & Julie Taymor, "Burn This House" - Frida (3)
Emiliana Torrini, "Gollum's Song" - The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (3)

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
About Schmidt (5)
Chicago (7)
Gangs Of New York (7)
The Hours (7)
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers (4)

Best Animated Short Film

Best Live Action Short Film

Achievement In Sound
Chicago (4)
Gangs Of New York (5)
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers (6)
Star Wars Episode II: Attack Of The Clones (6)
We Were Soldiers (4)

Achievement In Sound Editing
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers (6)
Minority Report (5)
We Were Soldiers (3.5)

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers (6)
Minority Report (4)
Star Wars Episode II: Attack Of The Clones (6)

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Bill Condon - Chicago (5)
Charlie & Donald Kaufman - Adaptation (6)
David Hare - The Hours (6)
Alexander Payne - About Schmidt (6)
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Stephen Sinclair & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers (6)

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
P. T. Anderson - Punch-Drunk Love (5)
Pedro Almodovar - Talk To Her (5)
Jay Cocks, Kenneth Lonergan & Steven Zallian - Gangs Of New York (6)
Antwone Fisher - Antwone Fisher (5)
Todd Haynes - Far From Heaven (6)

Final Counts
Chicago: 13
The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers: 12 (or 13)
Gangs Of New York: 10
The Hours: 9
Far From Heaven: 7
Adaptation: 5
About Schmidt: 4
Frida: 3 (or 4)
Road To Perdition: 2
Catch Me If You Can: 2
Minority Report: 2
The Pianist: 2
Star Wars Episode II: Attack Of The Clones: 2
We Were Soldiers: 2

And 21 other films with a single nomination.

Contributors
Adam_S
Arman
Bill J
Craig S
Dana Fillhart
DaveGR
Ray H

Three truths about movies, as noted by Roger Ebert:

 

* It's not what a movie is about, it's how it is about it.

* No good movie is too long, and no bad movie is short enough.

* No good movie is depressing, all bad movies are depressing.


#18 of 41 OFFLINE   Seth Paxton

Seth Paxton

    Lead Actor

  • 7,588 posts
  • Join Date: Nov 05 1998

Posted January 27 2003 - 04:33 PM

Okay, I've put the template in and a few entries, but I don't have time to research enough now to finish it.

Best Picture
Chicago
The Hours
The Two Towers (I flip-flopped on GONY here)
GONY (switched again and took out My Big Fat Greek Wedding at the last second)
Adaptation (Pianist is really close for this spot right now)

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Daniel Day-Lewis - GONY
Jack Nicholson - About Schmidt
Adrian Brody - The Pianist
Michael Caine - The Quiet American (I think Gere is close here)
Nicholas Cage - Adaptation

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Chris Cooper - Adaptation
Christopher Walken - CMIYC
Ed Harris - The Hours
Quaid - Far from Heaven
Molina - Frida


Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Kidman - Hours
Zellweger - Chicago
Hayek - Frida
Moore - Far From Heaven
Lane - Unfaithful (still suspect that Streep could get this spot)

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Kathy Bates - About Schmidt
Catherine Zeta-Jones - Chicago
Streep - Adaptation
Moore - Hours
Latifah - Chicago

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Spirited Away
Ice Age
Treasure Planet
Lilo and Stich
Spirit

Achievement In Art Direction
Frida
TTT
Far From Heaven
Chicago
Catch Me if You Can

Achievement In Cinematography
Chicago
Road to Perdition
Far From Heaven
Frida
Rabbit-Proof Fence


Achievement In Costume Design
GONY
TTT
Chicago
Minority Report
Frida

Achievement In Directing
GONY - Scorsese
TTT - Jackson
Adaptation - Jonze
Hours - Daldry
Pianist - Polanski

Best Documentary Feature
Bowling for Columbine
empty
empty
empty
empty


Best Documentary Short Subject
empty
empty
empty


Achievement In Film Editing
The Hours
TTT
Chicago
GONY
Adaptation

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
City of God
Crime of Father Amaro
8 Women
empty
empty


Achievement In Makeup (the one we all will get right and Frida will win)
The Time Machine
Frida

Achievement In Music - Original Score
The Hours
Frida
Far From Heaven
Catch Me If You Can
Rabbit-Proof Fence

Achievement In Music - Original Song
GONY - Hands that Built America
8 Mile - Lose Yourself
Chicago - I Move On
DAD - Die Another Day
Wild Thornberries - Father and Daughter

Best Animated Short Film
empty
empty
empty
empty
empty


Best Live Action Short Film
empty
empty
empty
empty
empty


Achievement In Sound
TTT
AOTC
Minority Report
Signs

Chicago

Achievement In Sound Editing
Minority Report
We Were Soldiers
TTT

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Two Towers
Minority Report
AOTC

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Charlie Kaufman - Adaptation
Bill Condon - Chicago
David Hare - The Hours
Payne - About Schmidt
Hedges - About a Boy

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Vardalos - MBFGW
Moore - Bowling for Columbine
Fisher - Antwone Fisher
Taylor/Tokien - Changing Lanes (the guild never matches all 10 noms)

Lonergan, et al - GONY

#19 of 41 OFFLINE   Brian W.

Brian W.

    Screenwriter

  • 1,958 posts
  • Join Date: Jul 29 1999
  • Real Name:Brian
  • LocationLos Angeles

Posted January 27 2003 - 04:58 PM

All right, for the moment I'm only predicting the top six. I've read the pundits' predictions, tracked the guild nominees, considered the critics awards, and analyzed the formulas. After a while, you just have to take what you've learned and go with your feelings -- which is how I predicted 5/5 for BP last year, correctly choosing Gosford Park when most pundits were predicting Black Hawk Down, and also predicted David Lynch would get a director nom even though he did not get a DGA nom. My gut tells me that My Big Fat Greek Wedding is this year's Gosford Park.

Here we go...


Best Picture

Chicago
Gangs of New York
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
My Big Fat Greek Wedding
(Wild card: About Schmidt could replace either Greek Wedding or TTT)


Best Director

Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her (total gut instinct)
Stephen Daldry, The Hours
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Rob Marshall, Chicago
Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York

Best Actor

Adrian Brody, The Pianist
Nicolas Cage, Adaptation
Michael Caine, The Quiet American (the Academy loves him, much more than they love Richard Gere)
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt


Best Actress

Salma Hayek, Frida
Nicole Kidman, The Hours
Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
Meryl Streep, The Hours
Renee Zellweger, Chicago
(edit: I think I was thinking of another actress when I said "another Diane Lane" snub...nonetheless, I think she will be snubbed)

Best Supporting Actor

Chris Cooper, Adaptation
Ed Harris, The Hours
Alfred Molina, Frida
Dennis Quaid, Far From Heaven
Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can
(My third eye just doesn't see Paul Newman getting a nod)


Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
Michelle Pfeiffer, White Orleander
Susan Sarandon, Igby Goes Down
Meryl Streep, Adaptation
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
(Queen Latifah can forget it, and I think Julianne Moore's role is too similar to her role in Far From Heaven to get a nod)

I will be making Screenplay predictions after the WGAs next week.

#20 of 41 OFFLINE   Dana Fillhart

Dana Fillhart

    Supporting Actor

  • 978 posts
  • Join Date: Feb 08 1999

Posted January 31 2003 - 04:20 PM

Updated my list -- added two more eligible Animated titles to make 5. Didn't change any of my other predictions at all (I'm reasonably confident in my prognosticative abilities Posted Image)
DVDs (24 Feb 2006): Discs - 2579, Titles - 1688 (Avg. 17 Titles/Month) • Films I've Seen: 20052004200320022001