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*** Official "2003 Box Office Prediction and Discussion" Thread


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#1581 of 1592 Iain Jackson

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Posted January 02 2004 - 12:05 AM

Well, I guess it's time for me to look back and review my predictions from the start of the year:

I've written the figures in the order Prediction/Actual.

DareDevil: $120m/$102.5m - Not a bad prediction, if the film had better legs from its $40m start then this would probably have been spot-on.

X2: $175m/$215m - I knew it would do better than the first, but not that much better. Of course the opening made it look like this was going to be huge, but ultimately my prediction was still at least reasonable.

The Matrix Reloaded: $265m/$282m - A fairly good prediction - I did say that it could go higher but not get to $300m, which is exactly what happened.

The Matrix Reloaded: $225m/$138m - I don't think that anybody saw such a huge drop-off coming, even after Reloaded came out...

Hulk: $230m/$132m - And to think I was amongst the lower guesses...

Terminator 3: $240m/$150m - Poor marketing, I guess. This really deserved much more...

Return of the King: $305m/$350m+? - Well, it clearly seems that this WILL make more than The Two Towers... I honestly thought that the series could only lose an audience, rather than gain it...

2 Fast 2 Furious: $100m/$127m - I thought that the lack of Vin Diesel would have hurt it more. I was still right about the big opening/poor legs though...

Tomb Raider 2: $105m/$66m - I did say that this could a lot higher or lower, which it evidently did...

Charlie's Angels 2: $90m/$101m - Once again I thought this could be higher or lower... I would have been closer without the added boost that the film got towards the end of its run.

Finding Nemo: $180m/$340m - Well, I just didn't think that fish could be that interesting. I guess I was wrong...

The Core: $40m/$30m - I was so close to saying $30m originally, but I then thought that it would have a bigger opening. At least I knew it was going to bomb...

The Cat in the Hat: $210m/~$100m - A bit of a surprise, I always thought that this was the most popular of Dr. Suess' books. Then again, I didn't know the film was going to be THAT bad either...

Bad Boys 2: $160m/$139m - Not a bad guess, I think the long running time probably had something to do with its final gross...

Spy Kids 3D: $70m/$111m - For some reason I have this down as Spey Kids 2 in my prediction, but anyway... I'm surprised that it managed to gross more than the second one. I guess the 3D gimic worked well with kids...

Legally Blonde 2: $120m/$90m - I guess that Reese Witherspoon isn't quite the box office draw I thought she would be...

Dreamcatcher: $125m/$34m - Uh... yeah. Not quite right, this guess...

Pirates of the Caribbean: $130m/$305m - At the time I was judging by the awful teaser trailer. I didn't realise how entertaining this was going to be...

Bruce Almighty: $150m/$243m - I guess I didn't realise that Jim Carrey comedies could still be this huge...

Looney Tunes: Back in Action: $115m/~$21m - Hmm. I guess Looney Tunes aren't as popular as I'd guessed...


All in all, my predictions for the year weren't generally that great - at least the year before I got one or two almost exactly correct. For this year's predictions I'll have both start-of-year predictions and revised guesses as the films come out...
"Come quietly or there will be... trouble."

#1582 of 1592 Colin Jacobson

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Posted January 02 2004 - 05:06 AM

Quote:
DareDevil: $120m/$102.5m - Not a bad prediction, if the film had better legs from its $0m start then this would probably have been spot-on.


Don't all movies do better than their $0 million starts? Posted Image

Quote:
Looney Tunes: Back in Action: $115m/~$21m - Hmm. I guess Looney Tunes aren't as popular as I'd guessed...


I think Looney Tunes are VERY popular - CLASSIC LT, that is. I don't think anyone is very interested in updated versions. For me, no Blanc, no sale!

Quote:
Legally Blonde 2: $120m/$90m - I guess that Reese Witherspoon isn't quite the box office draw I thought she would be...


Actually, I thought $90m was pretty good for LB2 since a) it just remade the first movie, and b) it stunk. I think Reese IS a decent draw, and she's the only reason the flick did as well as it did.

Quote:
The Cat in the Hat: $210m/~$100m - A bit of a surprise, I always thought that this was the most popular of Dr. Suess' books. Then again, I didn't know the film was going to be THAT bad either...


Hell, The Grinch was absolutely atrocious, but it still cleaned up at the BO. Film quality doesn't always matter, as Grinch proved.
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#1583 of 1592 Kami

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Posted January 02 2004 - 10:04 AM

ROTK is now at 261.5M

By the looks of things, it will break $300 million by the end of its third week. Craziness.

Well on its way to $360m...maybe $375m if it cleans up at all the awards.


#1584 of 1592 Larry Sutliff

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Posted January 02 2004 - 10:12 AM

I don't know if it's possible, but I'd love to see ROTK do 400 million. It deserves it.

#1585 of 1592 Chuck Mayer

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Posted January 02 2004 - 11:29 AM

That's just unbelievable for ROTK. Good news for New Line!

Take care,
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#1586 of 1592 Dennis Pagoulatos

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Posted January 02 2004 - 12:41 PM

They would have been at $300 million already if they'd just hacked off that last 20 minutes of weepy eyed hobbits. Posted Image

-Dennis
He must have died while carving it!...

#1587 of 1592 TerryRL

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Posted January 04 2004 - 06:35 AM

Weekend Estimates
(Though it's now 2004, the top 10 is filled with 2003 releases. Next weekend the list will move to the 2004 thread.)

#1 "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" $30.7 million ($291.9 million)
#2 "Cheaper by the Dozen" $21.8 million ($86.0 million)
#3 "Something's Gotta Give" $12.5 million ($81.6 million)
#4 "Cold Mountain" $11.7 million ($43.8 million)
#5 "Paycheck" $10.0 million ($38.8 million)
#6 "Mona Lisa Smile" $8.7 million ($50.2 million)
#7 "Peter Pan" $8.4 million ($33.8 million)
#8 "The Last Samurai" $7.4 million ($90.1 million)
#9 "Calender Girls" $4.5 million ($7.0 million)
#10 "Bad Santa" $3.0 million ($57.0 million)

New Line's 'Return of the King' continued to dominate the box office as it took a moderate 39% hit this weekend. The movie has so far tallied just under $292 million after only 19 days of release. ROTK is now a serious threat to become the fastest film in history to pass the $300 million mark. Currently, "Spider-Man" holds that record with it's 22 day pace to the triple-century mark. Here is a list of what ROTK has done since it's release three weeks ago...

-Best Wednesday opening mark ($34.4 million).
-(tied) Second fastest film to pass the $100 million mark (4 days).
-Fifth best second weekend gross, also only the fifth film in history to post back to back weekend earnings of more than $50 million.
-Best New Year's Eve gross ($11.8 million).
-Second fastest film to pass the $250 million mark (16 days).
-This weekend it becomes one of only five films to earn over $30 million in three weeks of release.

At this point, I think it's safe to say that ROTK will end up with a domestic haul in the area of $375-$385 million. Could it end up with more than $400 mil?

Fox's "Cheaper by the Dozen" took only a 20% hit this weekend and is well on it's way to joining the century club, giving star Steve Martin two $100 million releases in 2003.

Sony's "Something's Gotta Give" fell off by only 9% and is also on it's way to joining the century club. Star Jack Nicholson will also have two $100 million earners for 2003.

Oscar hopeful "Cold Mountain" took only a 19% hit this weekend and saw it's total rise to more than $43 million. The $80 million movie should end it's run with more than $70 million.

Taking a 25% hit was Paramount's action flick "Paycheck". The $85 million movie should end it's run in the area of $60 million.

Sony's "Mona Lisa Smile" continues to show strong legs. The movie took only a 23% drop and saw it's cume pass the $50 million mark. A final domestic tally of more than $75 million is now expected.

Universal's "Peter Pan" also continues to show strong legs as it took only a 24% hit. Still, the movie is not going to come close to recouping it's $125 million production/marketing fee.

After being written off as dead by some in the media, WB's epic "The Last Samurai" saw only a 10% dip in business this weekend as it's total hit the $90 million mark. The movie should hit the $100 million mark next weekend.

After spending the previous two weeks in limited release (under 45 theaters) Disney's "Calender Girls" added more than 700 theaters to it's total this weekend, as it took in more than $4.5 million. Disney is expecting this one to have a long life in multiplexes.

Rounding out the top 10 is Dimention's raunchy comedy "Bad Santa". The movie took a modest 33% hit this weekend and has so far tallied more than $57 million.

Next weekend will mark the first new releases of 2004 as WB's "Chasing Liberty" and New Line's "My Baby's Daddy" both hit screens. It'll be interesting to see if either has enough strength to challenge ROTK and "Cheaper by the Dozen". In any event, this marks the last weekend update for the 2003 thread. It's been a helluva year, let's see if 2004 can match it.
"Quite an experience to live in fear isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave."

#1588 of 1592 Brian W.

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Posted January 04 2004 - 07:44 AM

Quote:
ROTK is now a serious threat to become the fastest film in history to pass the $300 million mark. Currently


I thought so, too, until I looked at the drop for FOTR and TTT on their first Monday and Tuesday after the holidays -- 60, 70 percent or more for both of them. Neither made much more than $2 million on those days, and ROTK would have to make at least $4 million on Monday and Tuesday each.

The kids are back in school and people are back to work, so it's just not going to happen. ROTK will probably continue to place second to "Spider-man."

#1589 of 1592 nolesrule

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Posted January 04 2004 - 08:20 AM

Quote:
ROTK will probably continue to place second to "Spider-man."


Nothing wrong with that. Doesn't change my enjoyment of the LOTR.

#1590 of 1592 nolesrule

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Posted January 31 2004 - 03:53 AM

ROTK passed Finding Nemo on Thursday to become 2003's #1 film in domestic box office. Congrats!

#1591 of 1592 Matt Stone

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Posted January 31 2004 - 05:36 AM

Congrats, indeed!
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#1592 of 1592 Tom Ryan

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Posted January 31 2004 - 03:23 PM

FYI, all of the LOTR films grossed more worldwide than Spider-Man did.


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