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*** Official "2003 Box Office Prediction and Discussion" Thread


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#21 of 1592 OFFLINE   Dana Fillhart

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Posted January 03 2003 - 11:55 AM

FYI...

I got an email earlier today from Box Office Mojo -- looks like they're going forward with a two-tiered access system (a la IMDB), where only some of their material will be available for free.

I'm hoping I can do the $62/yr subscription, but I won't be doing that for a couple months at least (I just got re-employed after 3 months of unemployment...gotta catch up on those bills! Posted Image)

Any case, there are plenty of sources available, and BOM still will provide the basic lists for free, which is pretty much what we use here. Still, I'm hoping for no interruption of information as the weeks progress.

DVDs (24 Feb 2006): Discs - 2579, Titles - 1688 (Avg. 17 Titles/Month) • Films I've Seen: 20052004200320022001

#22 of 1592 OFFLINE   Dana Fillhart

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Posted January 06 2003 - 08:06 AM


FILMS IN THEATRES FOR THE WEEKEND OF
17 Jan 2003
Title
(Studio)
Release Date (Week #)
Current/max theatres
Weekend Tally / Grand TotalClosest Guess
Kangaroo Jack
Warner Bros.
10 Jan 2003 (0)
?/?
(?)(?)
* Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
Miramax Films
31 Dec 2002 (2)
?/?
(?)(?)
P.S. Your Cat Is Dead!
TLA Releasing
17 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?
(?)(?)
City of God
Miramax Films
17 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?
(?)(?)
National Security
Columbia Pictures
17 Jan 2003 (0)
?/?
(?)(?)
A Guy Thing
MGM/UA
17 Jan 2003 (0)
?/?
(?)(?)
Big Shot's Funeral
Columbia Pictures
17 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?
(?)(?)
Kira's Reason
First Run Features
17 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?
(?)(?)
Divine Intervention
Avatar Films
17 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?
(?)(?)
Close, Closed, Closure
First Run Features / Icarus Films
15 Jan 2003 (0, L)
?/?
(?)(?)
1Just Married
20th Century Fox
10 Jan 2003 (1)
2,766 / 2,766
$17,548,993 / $17,548,993-
2* The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
New Line Cinema
18 Dec 2002 (4)
3,477 / 3,622
$14,755,406 / $283,421,517-
3* Catch Me If You Can
Dreamworks Distribution, LLC
25 Dec 2002 (3)
3,225 / 3,225
$14,630,444 / $119,370,261-
4* Two Weeks Notice
Warner Bros.
20 Dec 2002 (4)
2,755 / 2,755
$6,833,423 / $78,993,281-
5* About Schmidt
New Line Cinema
13 Dec 2002 (5)
865 / 865
$6,403,691 / $21,957,264-
6* Chicago
Miramax Films
27 Dec 2002 (3)
362 / 362
$5,690,875 / $17,171,239-
7* Maid in Manhattan
Columbia Pictures
13 Dec 2002 (5)
2,926 / 3,050
$5,144,633 / $83,850,874-
8* Gangs of New York
Miramax Films
20 Dec 2002 (4)
2,340 / 2,340
$4,829,938 / $54,925,876-
9* Antwone Fisher
Fox Searchlight Pictures
19 Dec 2002 (4)
1,007 / 1,007
$3,783,122 / $10,434,944-
10* The Wild Thornberrys Movie
Paramount Pictures
20 Dec 2002 (4)
2,608 / 3,012
$2,844,770 / $35,165,937-
11* 25th Hour
Touchstone Pictures
19 Dec 2002 (4)
490 / 490
$2,832,622 / $3,456,790-
12* Narc
Paramount Pictures
20 Dec 2002 (4)
822 / 822
$2,825,807 / $3,175,704-
13* Drumline
20th Century Fox
13 Dec 2002 (5)
1,534 / 1,837
$2,803,256 / $51,359,523-
14* Adaptation.
Columbia Pictures
6 Dec 2002 (6)
560 / 560
$2,636,924 / $9,187,001-
15* Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
Warner Bros.
15 Nov 2002 (9)
1,550 / 3,682
$2,408,476 / $255,449,301-
16* My Big Fat Greek Wedding
IFC Films
19 Apr 2002 (39)
1,212 / 2,016
$2,102,547 / $230,876,712-
17* The Hot Chick
Touchstone Pictures
13 Dec 2002 (5)
1,601 / 2,246
$1,718,807 / $32,543,830-
18* Die Another Day
MGM/UA
22 Nov 2002 (8)
1,180 / 3,314
$1,489,564 / $156,156,363-
19* Star Trek: Nemesis
Paramount Pictures
13 Dec 2002 (5)
1,777 / 2,711
$1,038,702 / $41,614,360-
20* The Pianist
Focus Films / Miramax Films
27 Sep 2002 (3)
161 / 161
$1,019,754 / $2,414,040-
21* The Lion King (IMAX)
Buena Vista Pictures / Disney
27 Dec 2002 (3)
66 / 66
$930,921 / $7,207,036-
22* The Hours
Paramount Pictures
29 Nov 2002 (3)
45 / 45
$907,621 / $2,196,461-
23* Treasure Planet
Buena Vista Pictures / Disney
27 Nov 2002 (7)
759 / 3,227
$544,843 / $36,560,387-
24* Far from Heaven
IFC Films
8 Nov 2002 (10)
291 / 291
$498,551 / $11,971,502-
25* Habla con Ella (Talk to Her)
Sony Pictures Classics
22 Nov 2002 (8)
65 / 65
$383,249 / $2,851,514-
26* Frida
Focus Films / Miramax Films
25 Oct 2002 (12)
237 / 794
$381,650 / $21,900,693-
27* Analyze That
Warner Bros.
6 Dec 2002 (6)
502 / 2,635
$374,326 / $31,507,422-
28* Bowling for Columbine
MGM/UA
11 Oct 2002 (14)
204 / 248
$352,609 / $16,631,101-
30* Empire
Arenas Entertainment / Universal Studios
6 Dec 2002 (6)
324 / 869
$328,860 / $17,188,725-
33* Rabbit-Proof Fence
Miramax Films
27 Nov 2002 (7)
94 / 94
$321,667 / $2,144,138-

...
>30Blue Collar Comedy Tour
Warner Bros.
10 Jan 2003 (1)
- / -
/ -
>30* Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
Miramax Films
31 Dec 2002 (2)
5 / 5
$81,812 / $308,027-
>30P.S. Your Cat Is Dead!
TLA Releasing
10 Jan 2003 (1)
- / -
/ -
>30The Slaughter Rule
Cowboy Booking International
10 Jan 2003 (1)
2 / 2
$1,464 / $2,523-
>30The Son
New Yorker Films
10 Jan 2003 (1)
- / -
$10,048 / $10,048-
>30Tales Not Told
Premiere Marketing and Distribution Group
10 Jan 2003 (1)
- / -
/ -

DVDs (24 Feb 2006): Discs - 2579, Titles - 1688 (Avg. 17 Titles/Month) • Films I've Seen: 20052004200320022001

#23 of 1592 OFFLINE   Matt Pelham

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Posted January 07 2003 - 03:55 AM

The Hulk - $285 Million. Expect this one to open BIG
X2 - $195 Million. Another big opening and similar legs to the first one.
Terminator 3 - $225 . Looks horrible, should still make decent money.
Finding Nemo - $194 . Doesn't have the appeal of the other Pixar films.
The Matrix Reloaded - $290 . Going to be amazing.
The Matrix Revolutions - $268 . Same as above
Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - $370

#24 of 1592 OFFLINE   Chuck Mayer

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Posted January 07 2003 - 04:46 AM

I've waited too long!

My initial take on the year:

Bad Boys 2 - $210M
A big hit of the summer. I expect it to do very well, and this number is a wild ass guess.

Bruce Almighty - $140M
Jim Carrey back to his strengths...but it has been a while.

Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle - $100 M
No accounting for taste. I'll see it on cable. But it should do alright at the BO.

Daredevil - $85M
Like the Scorpion King. People are a bit sick of Ben, and the trailer is average. Not nearly the draw of Hulk or Spidey.

Finding Nemo - $275M
I am very confused at the lowballing of this film. The first DISNEY film in a "blockbuster" summer was The Lion King. It had no competition (sound familiar to 2003), and IT RULED THE ROOST. I expect this to be one of the huge hits of the summer.

Pirates of the Caribbean - $100M
Interesting cast.

Shanghai Knights - $75M
Should do rather well in a weak spring.

Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines - $195M
Will have a HUGE opening...but then MIIB syndrome will probably set in.

The Hulk - $225M
Big. Very big. Hulk sized, but no Spidey. Still a very big hit. Could go quite a bit higher.

The Matrix: Reloaded - $265M
The Matrix: Revolutions - $250M
Highest grossing "R" films in history. If they are PG-13, they'll go over $300M. Tough to call the second until we see opening weekend on the first.

X2 (X-Men 2) - $175M
Unlike Spidey, The Matrix WILL eat into X2 a bit. Not enough to kill, just enough to annoy Fox.

Return of The King - Tough to call prior to TTT finishing it's run (but that'll be a while). I expect it to make about $10M less than TTT. I might eat those words when it OWNZ, but who knows.

More as the year progresses. Never underscore Pixar. Especially in an anemic summer for kid's films...

Take care,
Chuck
Hey buddy...did you just see a real bright light?

#25 of 1592 OFFLINE   Chris

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Posted January 07 2003 - 03:58 PM

Terry, I'm copying your list and making my predictions NOW:

JANUARY
"Just Married" $40 million (I agree,no opinions on others)

FEBRUARY
"Daredevil" $95 million (I'm predicting this film will BARELY make $95M if that, and may turn into much less...)
"Shanghai Knights" $65 million'
"The Jungle Book 2" $35 million

MARCH
(No projections on any of the march or april releases)


MAY
"The Matrix Reloaded" $300+ million - I know, people are saying "but it's "R".. I thought about that too.. but I think "Matrix Reloaded" may be one of the most anticipated films of the entire next year, and I would not be shocked to see this thing have a 100M+ Opening weekend.
"X2" $165 million - XMen didn't do huge box office, I don't think the sequel will draw vast numbers over the original. It will perform very well, but I can't see it breaking $200M.
"Finding Nemo" $230 million. It's Pixar. It's kid friendly. And the story will be good.
"Bruce Almighty" $140 million - Previews looked good. Could catch on as a good comedy alternative.
"Daddy Day Care" $50 million (I think this will bomb)

JUNE
"The Hulk" $200 million - I think the Hulk will turn in a fair performance, but $350M? No way. No way whatsoever. $200M if it's lucky.
"2 Fast 2 Furious" $110 million
"Freddy vs. Jason" $8.35. And then someone will post on the internet it's utter crap and no one will go... well, I wish it were that way..


JULY
"Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines" $160 million
"Bad Boys 2" $135 million
"Pirates of the Caribbean" $45 million (See: Cutthroat Island)
"Lara Croft: Tomb Raider- The Cradle of Life" $75 million
"Spy Kids 3" $82 million
"The Exorcist: The Beginning" $16.50. A couple goes and tells their friends that it is basically Excorcist 2, except James Earl Jones doesn't puke. No one else attends.


AUGUST
(no projections)

SEPTEMBER
(no projections)

OCTOBER
"Kill Bill" $95 million (fans will love it, others will hate it..)
"Intolerable Cruelty" $85 million

NOVEMBER
"The Matrix Revolutions" EITHER $200M or $350M, if Reloaded has fantastic word of mouth, this could be a MONSTER blockbuster.
"Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat" $140 million
"Looney Tunes: Back in Action" $47 million

DECEMBER
"The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" $300 million
"The Last Samurai" $135 million
"The Alamo" $130 million


Posted Image
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#26 of 1592 OFFLINE   Seth Paxton

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Posted January 07 2003 - 08:25 PM

I'll copy too for some early guesses
(this post is being edited to reflect any alterations to my guesses as well as summerizing the final results of guesses)

JANUARY
"Just Married" $40 million
under by $16m - decent

FEBRUARY
"Daredevil" $75 million
under by $27m - not terrible
"Shanghai Knights" $85 million
missed by $25m - not terrible

MARCH
Phone Booth $90 million
missed by almost $45m Posted Image

MAY
"The Matrix Reloaded" $320 million (edit: bumped up 45m on April 19)
Should have stuck with my original guess, instead I am going to be over by about $40m
"X2" $175 million
Going to miss by some $40m over my guess, much bigger than I expected
"Finding Nemo" $275 million. (edit: bumped up 35m more on May 15, up another $10m on May 22)
holy smokes, I was still under by $65m...at least I thought it would be a hit
"Bruce Almighty" $220 million (edit: bumped up about 20m on Jan 28, bumped another $55m on May 22)
Off by about 10-15m, a very good guess
"Down with Love" $50m (edit: changed this on May 15)
Good idea on the change, but still not enough. Missed by $30m over on this bomb


JUNE
"The Hulk" $200 million (edit: down $50m on May 22)
missed by $70 million, another film that just wasn't the type of film I expected, definitely not the crowd pleaser type
"Charlie's Angels 2" $155 million (edit: up $10m on May 22)
missed by $55m, film was a lot worse than I expected
"2 Fast 2 Furious" $110 million
Under by about $20m but a pretty solid guess

JULY
Legally Blond 2 $150m (added June 30)
missed by $60 million, another bad miss on a bad sequel
Sinbad $110m (added June 30, up $35m later on June 30)
off by about 400% or $80m...yikes, a terrible month for me
"League of Extraordinary Gentlemen" $180 million (edit: a whopping downshift of $110m on May 22, back up $40m on June 30)
missed by $120m, a terrible miss on my part for a film seen as a total disaster
"Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines" $170 million (edit: up $20m on June 19, up $60m on June 30, back down $40m on June 30)
off by only $20m...what, I got one right?
"Bad Boys 2" $155 million (edit: up $20m on June 19)
over by $17m, not too bad
"Pirates of the Caribbean" $225 million (up $25m on June 30)
under by $80m, I knew it would be a hit but what a run it had...must be where all the money went from the films that bombed
"Lara Croft: Tomb Raider- The Cradle of Life" $110 million (edit: up $45m on May 22)
I never should have adjusted it upward since I missed by $50m
"Spy Kids 3" $90 million
under by $20m...in the ballpark at least
"Dumb and Dumberer" $85 million
Wow, I didn't think it would play big, but I was still over by $60m, terrible guess
Seabiscuit $145m (added June 30)
only over by $25m, not too bad

AUGUST
"American Wedding" $130 million
over by $25m...another in the park but not great
"Like Hell: Jeepers Creepers 2" $75 million
over by twice as much or $30m...terrible guess
"Freddie v. Jason" $110 million (added July 8)
over by $30m...starting to look like I gave almost every film too much credit

OCTOBER
"Kill Bill" $100 million (Pulp only did $108m, even in 95 dollars that's not a mega-hit)
"Intolerable Cruelty" $140 million

NOVEMBER
"The Matrix Revolutions" $260 million (edit: added $40m on May 22)
"Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat" $200 million (quality could give this a word of mouth bump, right now I'm guessing no better than Grinch quality
edit: up $85m on June 19)
"Love Actually" $120 million (counter programming that could really earn for a month or two)
"Elf" $200 million (added Nov 6)
"Master and Commander" $160 million (added Nov 10)

DECEMBER
"The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" $320 million
"Cold Mountain" $100 million (added Nov 10)
"The Last Samurai" $150 million (edit: adding $60m on May 22 due to Cruise name regonition)
---> bumped to 2004 "The Alamo" $110 million

#27 of 1592 OFFLINE   Mark Zimmer

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Posted January 08 2003 - 07:28 AM

What the heck, I'm in.

Finding Nemo: $220M
Daredevil: $85M
Hulk: $180M
Matrix Reloaded $280M
Matrix Revolutions $300M assuming the Reloaded DVD comes out before Revolutions hits theaters; otherwise $270M.
Terminator 3: $140M Big opening, quick plummet
Dumb and Dumberer: $40M Maybe less if word leaks out that neither Carrey nor whatzisname is attached to it before release.
Pirates of the Caribbean: I have no idea on this one; Depp tends not to be in high-grossing pictures, but how can you argue with sword-fighting skeletons? $150M, let's say.
2 Fast 2 Furious $70M No Vin Diesel=box office disaster
Cat in the Hat mmm could bomb but the name recognition is HUGE. $230M unless it's so bad parents absolutely refuse to take the kids to it a second time.
Return of the King $420M yes you read it here first. I fully expect the extended DVD of TTT to have the movie public whipped into an utter frenzy, and if it's half as good as the participants are hinting it is, it should be a monster hit.

#28 of 1592 OFFLINE   Dana Fillhart

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Posted January 09 2003 - 03:28 AM

Updated the last table with the actual tallies (instead of the estimates). Fixed a couple errors, too.

I now have the tables being generated from Excel, so I don't have to manually enter every little detail each time, just update the columns with the new data (which, given BOM's site structure, makes it really easy to do).

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#29 of 1592 OFFLINE   Sam E. Torres

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Posted January 09 2003 - 04:35 AM

i can't help but think you guys are overestimating on the hulk. i mean the advertising strategy is strikingly similar to another green menace we had a few years ago (i'm surprised no one has compared the two so far). and if those rumors about
giant mutated "hulk poodles" are true....
then i guarantee you all the hulk toys will be on the clearance rack at toys r us by july.

#30 of 1592 OFFLINE   Chris

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Posted January 09 2003 - 04:44 AM

That's kinda what I'm thinking.. the Hulk could turn into the Godzilla of 2003.
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#31 of 1592 OFFLINE   Brian W.

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Posted January 10 2003 - 12:46 AM

Both Box Office Mojo and Box Office Guru are predicting TTT will hold onto #1 for a fourth week, with Catch Me If You Can hot on its heels and Just Married a solid third. Here are Box Office Mojo's predix for the weekend:

1 The Two Towers 16.5
2 Catch Me If You Can 15.3
3 Just Married (2,764 theaters) 13.8
4 Two Weeks Notice 8.0
5 About Schmidt 7.0
6 Maid in Manhattan 5.7
7 Gangs of New York 5.1
8 Antwone Fisher (1,006 theaters) 5.0
9 Chicago 4.5
10 Narc (822 theaters) 4.1
11 The Wild Thornberrys 3.2
12 Adaptation (560 theaters) 2.9
25th Hour (490 theaters) 2.1

#32 of 1592 OFFLINE   Adam_S

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Posted January 10 2003 - 05:34 AM

that sounds about what I was thinking for both TTT and CMIYC, though I would edge TTT closer to 18 million myself. I also just have a gut hunch that Maid in Manhattan and Two Weeks Notice will flipflop BOM's predictions, because from what I've heard MIM is the much prefered and better film.

Antwone FIshcer in 1000 theaters huh? maybe I'll get to see it today after all, unless About Schmidt has finally expanded to here.

Adam
 

#33 of 1592 OFFLINE   Brian Lawrence

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Posted January 10 2003 - 07:48 AM

I noticed over at Box-Office Mojo, That on Thursday "Catch Me if You Can" (1.68mill) was #1 for the day, Marking the first time Two Towers (1.59) was not on top for the day.

#34 of 1592 OFFLINE   Luis Cruz

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Posted January 10 2003 - 09:50 AM

Here are my predictions for what I think the following films will make.

Daredevil- If this is good, it could possibly make 150 million, if it is so-so then it will probably make around 100 million.

X2 (a.k.a. X-Men 2)- I don't know why everyone is under estimating this film. This film is going to be huge. Plus the first 2 weeks of May there are no big releases to impact it's sales. It will also have 2 weeks before the Matrix to gobble as much money as it can. If this film is as good as what I've been reading and hearing then I say this film could easily make 250-300 million in its domestic take.

Matrix:Reloaded- Here is a movie that is going to set some records for being an R rated movie. I say this will easily make 250-300 million.

Finding Nemo- I say this movie, since it's Pixar, it will make around 200 million.

2 Fast 2 Furious- Considering this film does not have Vin Diesel in it. I don't think it will beat the first one. I say it might even have a tough time cracking the century mark.

The Hulk- I say this has 200 million written all over it. Maybe even more. Could do surprisingly well.

Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle- This will most probably make around 100 million for its domesitic haul.

Legally Blonde 2: 100 million.

Terminator 3: This is a tough one. If it's good it could make 200+ million, if it is bad, I say around 150 million.

Pirates of the Carribean- 80-100 million.

Bad Boys II- 175 million.

Tomb Raider 2- 50-100 million.

Spy Kids 3- 80 million

Matrix:Revolutions- This one is tough to call. There are to many uncertainties to really make a good guess on it. If the second one doesn't tire everyone out, then this could make around the same as the second will make. If it does tire everyone out, then it will end up with around 200 million.

Looney Tunes: Back in Action- 90 million.

Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King- 360 million.
Remember that God is good all the time and all the time God is good!

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#35 of 1592 OFFLINE   Brian W.

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Posted January 10 2003 - 10:03 AM

Quote:
I noticed over at Box-Office Mojo, That on Thursday "Catch Me if You Can" (1.68mill) was #1 for the day, Marking the first time Two Towers (1.59) was not on top for the day.


Now that the actuals are out, it looks like CMIYC was #1 by a hair on Wednesday, too. TTT may be in trouble this weekend.

#36 of 1592 OFFLINE   Joshua_Y

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Posted January 10 2003 - 08:38 PM

My Predictions:

LotR: RotK - $335mil
Matrix Reloaded - $285mil
Matrix Revolutions - $220mil
T3 - If it sucks: $75mil. If its good: $150mil
Daredevil - $150mil
X2 - $235mil
Hulk - $200mil
Tomb Raider 2 - $100mil

#37 of 1592 OFFLINE   Iain Jackson

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Posted January 10 2003 - 11:18 PM

More predictions from me:

Bad Boys 2: $160m - this looks like it could be big, but I'd imagine it'll still be R-rated and there's a lot of competition this summer.

Spy Kids 2: $70m - that sounds about right to me.

Legally Blonde 2: $120m - this should do a little bit better than the original, mainly based on a strong opening.

Dreamcatcher: $125m - this could perform a bit like The Ring...

Pirates of the Caribbean: $130m - Disney are supposedly pushing this as a tentpole film, but I don't see it being that successful.

Bruce Almighty: $150m - this looks like it could be a very fun film.

Looney Tunes: Back In Action: $115m - this one is hard to judge, so I'll go for a middle of the road estimate.
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#38 of 1592 OFFLINE   Joshua_Y

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Posted January 11 2003 - 02:47 AM

Whats Dreamcatcher?

#39 of 1592 OFFLINE   Malcolm R

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Posted January 11 2003 - 02:54 AM

Quote:
Whats Dreamcatcher?

Based on the Stephen King novel of the same name.
The purpose of an education is to replace an empty mind with an open mind.

#40 of 1592 OFFLINE   Dennis Pagoulatos

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Posted January 11 2003 - 04:51 AM

Early Friday numbers posted at BO Mojo show "Just Married" in FIRST place! With CMIYC in second, and TTT in third! Whoa!! What the??!

Another big drop of TTT in the making? Not looking good at all if that is the case...$325 million is looking pretty iffy if it has another (almost) 50% drop!

-Dennis
He must have died while carving it!...





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