Why Blu-ray or Hd-dvd will not be supported even with low player costs (1 Viewer)

[troy evans]

Dan, one thing to remember is whenever you have new technology at first it's always expensive. Developers, patents,etc. all must be paid for before you see significant price reductions. The only thing with the current situation is we are presented with 2 simular formats in hope that one rules supreme. Sd dvd was the sole new format( I don't count Divx) at its time and made it an easier choice between it and VHS.

 

[ReggieW]

There has been much talk among many enthusiasts regarding the possiblity that the HD-DVD supporting studios may simply phase out standard DVD releases for combos/twins.

This will not happen anytime soon for the reasons outlined above by Troy.

SD-DVD provides a HUGE stream of revenue for the studios, and with that revenue now shrinking, they really don't want to do anything to upset that market further. The only thing I can possibly see happening, is that a studio may decide to release a day/date title as a combo/twin release ONLY and reduce the msrp to $32.95 for that release (meaning it could still be purchased for $15.99-$19.99 on sale the first week or two). I really think until there is greater market penentration with HD-DVD and the studios begin making a profit, they probably won't consider this scenario viable at this stage.

Regarding the purchase of players --I believe the lower the player prices go, the more this will be perceived as risk free by consumers. Afterall, if you're interested in that $120 SD-DVD player from a name brand manufacturer to go along with your new 1080P LCD, why not simply upgrade to HD-DVD for $30-$50 more? If it were $300-$500 more that would be different. I really do believe that HD-DVD player sales will soar over the Holidays becasue of this (BD will as well, but only if they reach that sub $200 price point).

 

[bigluigi]

Actually, on a whole, they were much lower than $15.99 and this (software prices) is the main difference between the introductions of the DVD format and HDM. Sure, DVD hardware prices fell significantly over the space of 1 year just as HD-DVD and Blu-ray players have fallen, but....for the most part, HD software prices are still insanely high. I came across an intresting possible solution that could lower HD software prices in the AVS forum:






-- By Joseph Whip

It has been an amazing week in the world of High Definition media (HDM) on the Internet forums starting with the Paramount/Dreamworks HD-DVD exclusivity announcement. Fanboys or both red and blu persuasions have been working overdrive spinning the announcement this way and that, proclaiming that their side would be victorious. While some of the postings on sites have been amusing, some have been downright deceitful or libelous, uncalled for and beneath us as HT enthusiasts. To calls of payoffs, the Microsoft behind it all and wanting to rule the world, to Michael Bay being a savior to then being a villain to Steven Spielberg releasing only on BD and not HD, not ever and Sony being the root of all evil. People posting claiming big news which will end the war, only to disappear when nothing happens as they said it would. Ok, nevermind! All very sad really.

An example of how things can get out of hand is the announcement that Steve Nickerson a SVP at Warner Brothers was resigning. Given claims that WB was about to make some big announcement, the fanboys were all a twitter, claiming that this meant that WB was going BD exclusive as Mr. Nickerson was pro HD to no he was pro BD and this meant HD exclusivity. In reality, no one posting had a clue who Mr. Nickerson is and whether it meant anything. Maybe he just wanted to spend more time with his family? Guys, get a life! We will find out soon enough whether it means anything at all. Most likely, it does not.

The other main issue posted on the boards is how to end the war. Swanni has even chimed in on three ways that BD can win the war. Maybe so, but at this point, it seems to me that there is only one side that can end the war quickly, and that is HD not BD. The best that BD can hope is to win a war of attrition that will last a couple more years and hope to gain such an edge on software sales to force the hands of the HD exclusive or neutral studios to give up the ghost. On the other hand, HD has the combo and dual disc hand to play, one which BD has not. The combo disc is a flipper, having HD on one side and SD on the other. The dual disc does the same but does not require flipping the disc over. Some HD owners hate the idea of combos, mostly due to the added cost, making, in the case of WB, the BD discs being $5 cheaper than the combo, which in and of itself may explain some of the sales figures of 300 in favor of BD. I like them.

However, with Paramount now HD exclusive, it is possible that Universal, Paramount and Warners can get together and abandon DVD only releases for their films and release HD/DVD combos only. They would, of course, have to price them more like DVDs and give up their
insane HDM price points. I would suggest a $19.99 msrp. The almost immediate result will be sales of millions upon millions of HD DVD discs almost overnight. What will the Nielsen rankings look like then?

Consumers could buy the discs in confidence knowing that they will always have the DVD side. With numerous discs in the house, they would be more inclined to buy an HD player to take advantage of the much better picture and sound on the other side of the disc. With HD player approaching $199 and lower soon, HD players will reach the point of impulse buys, further fueling sales of the HD discs. The combos would also be travel friendly, as they will play on portable DVD player, laptops and car players as well. Combos are impossible for BD as the DVD Forum will not permit them. I just can't imagine families buying a BD for the house and a separate DVD of the same film for travel purposes. All of this, of course, hinges on the price of the discs. It would be impossible for Fox and Disney to resist entering such a market were it to come to pass. With Fox and Disney becoming neutral, the war would be as good as over.

I acknowledge that what I am proposing would be a bold move by the studios. However, if they want to end the war and do so quickly, it is the most logical alternative.

_What do you guys think?________________________________________


Please discuss nicely.

 

[mdnitoil]

High definition television or not, average consumers are going to purchase whatever they perceive to have the greatest value. In this case, that's going to be the cheapest little shiny disk available, SD. Until SD is no longer the cheapest shiny disk available, you can forget about wide adoption of any HD format. Primarily because HD doesn't offer that paradigm shift. There's no compelling reason to upgrade other than quality and Joe Average can give a hoot about paying for that. He never has cared. If quality happens to be the fallout of some new way of viewing movies, then great. But it's never been the primary motivation for the general public.

You can build all the sub $200 players in the world, but there's no incentive for the average person to buy one while they can get an SD player for $50. All you're gonna get are the fence-sitter enthusiasts to finally budge. You see, at the end of the day, Joe Average isn't waiting to afford high def, which is where the $200 sell through barrier comes in. He just doesn't care about it unless it's no more expensive than the cheap alternative.

 

[Stephen_J_H]

This is on the money. I remember a friend paying $40 for The Virgin Suicides on DVD when it first came out. I didn't buy it until ~2003, when I found it in Wal*Mart's $6.88 bin. New release prices will drop when there are enough players in homes for the studios to justify the decrease, or when the studios figure out that they could sell more if their prices weren't so damn high.

 

[Paul_Scott]

Doesn't anyone else remember how long it took for Paramount to adopt reasonable msrps? I remember $29.99 msrps discounted to $24.99 for catalog titles at Borders. I vividly remember picking up Albert Brooks Reel Life, only to put it back on the shelf because it was a bare bones release with a $24.99 sticker price.
The first movie I bought was Invasion Of The Body Snatchers (MGM) in 2000 and I paid $19.99 for the non anamorphic disc. The first wave of James Bond SEs were $34.95.

I'm sorry, but while Fox's price represent a poor value, and Combo prices are annoying for a feature I don't want or need, everything else about HD so far has been an amazing value in comparision to every other home video format introduction I've been alive to see (which is pretty much all of them save for the introduction of the color tv).

 

[Douglas Monce]

Where were you finding DVDs for $15.99 in the first year of release? Hell they are still almost invariably $19.95 for a special edition (is there anything else these days) on street date.

Doug

 

[Carlo_M]

For the old timers:

You know what would help HD/BD beat DVD?

Reel.com coupons

 

[Ron-P]

Really? Not from what I remember. I remember them being priced out at about $19.99 - $21.99 in the first couple of years. Of course this was 10+ years ago so I could be wrong. I do remember getting lots of free dvds thanks to special coupons, like the one mentioned above.

 

[Joseph Bolus]

In fairness, all of Disney's "Limited Edition" first wave of animated classics that were released to DVD between October of 1999 and January of 2000 were MSRPed at $34.95. The "street prices" varied between $24.95 - $29.95. All of these titles were basically "bare bones"; and none of the widescreen titles were anamorphically-enhanced. This was about two years and four months after the initial launch of the DVD format.

The main difference here is that DVD at that point had no real competition in the marketplace. Divix was already dead; domestic distribution of LD stopped in the fourth quarter of '99; and even the most jaded "Joe Six Pack" already acknowledged that DVD blew VHS out of the water from a video, audio, and convenience perspective. DVD was "it"!

That's not the case today with HD-DVD and Blu-ray. Both offer a video and audio upgrade from DVD, but the convenience factor remains the same, and "Joe Six Pack" can't really see or hear a big difference between DVD and HD-DVD/Blu-ray on his typical 720p native resolution 42" Plasma.

Throw in the obvious fact that HD-DVD and Blu-ray are also competing against each other, and there is no question but that each format is currently trying to charge too much for their discs given the current fractured realities of the marketplace. (And in the case of the DVD/HD-DVD combo discs replacing DVD releases for the HD-DVD exclusive studios: Perhaps if HD-DVD decks get up to 25% or more market penetration it could become reasonably viable. But before that happens, the format war will probably already be decided one way or another.)

Perhaps a unified approach to HD would have fared better. There would have been an obvious upgrade path for the consumer; and since the player would have been backward-compatible with DVD, the consumer would have simply purchased the new HD player at the same time that he/she purchased the new HD display. Anything new would have been purchased and/or rented in HD and the consumer would gradually come to appreciate the upgraded video and audio.

As it stands now, DVD is the once and future king!

 

[Holer]

I decided to buy a Blu-Ray player yesterday when I saw what I thought was a good deal at Costco. I am definitely worried that I may have bought the next Betamax player, but then I watched Casino Royale in Hi-Def and was appropriately gob-smacked.

Up until that moment, I was a fervent believer that SD was the way to go, and I am still a fan, especially with prices so low. Now though, hi-def really has upped the ante from their original ho-hum releases and I think once the average consumer sees it, they will want it.

I can't predict a winner in the format war, but I suspect the actual players will be around in one form or another for a good long time, so no matter which way we choose to go, we won't end up with anything obsolete. My attitude is that my BR discs are the 'videophile' equivalents to the super audio-fidelity versions of my favorite albums.

One thing all the studios need to stop doing though, regardless of format, is putting out titles with substandard transfers just to say they are on Hi-def. I think a lot of the early titles suffered from this, but now that movies like 'Casino Royale' and 'Pirates' have pushed the envelope, the studios need to maintain that level of quality. Ultimately, that is what will bring the buyers into the market.

 

[JohnPhi]

Dan got it a little wrong, sure prices keep people from jumping in, but this format war is what will really keep people away. Even if both sides had palyers at 200, it would not help. Sure each side would sell more players, but not hit mass adoption. Bottom line, most consumers will not buy into any format where content is divided over two systems.

 

[ppltd]

John, I personally believe that if there were only one format, the general public would still not buy. At this time, no one has shown them a valid reason to move from SD to HD. If there is no pressing need for the general consumer to change, they won't. I suspect that the general consumer does not even know there is a HD format war on.

As far as pricing goes, 200.00 still seems to be the magic price point, but even at that price, there still has to be an excitement to get the product before it will sell, and that does not exist. What with 40.00 disk prices, it may never.

 

[Jeff Ulmer]

Ah yes, the DVD crack.

I think it's way too early to expect decent pricing on HD content on either format. I know I paid a huge premium for being an early DVD adopter (and I do mean huge), and am really not interested in doing the same for HD versions. Players under $200 and software well under $20 is about where things need to be to get any serious interest from me. When I can buy a complete TV series like Northern Exposure on DVD for under $150 (granted this wouldn't have cost that littel as season sets), yet a single season of Trek is $200+ forget it.

 

[Averry]

Also, alot of people say that the price difference of Blu-Ray and HD-DVD drives is rapidly decreasing, forget that HD-DVD playes are dropping as well.


It gets to a point where $300 and $200 dollars is LESS than $300 and $500, but suddenly an HD-DVD drive is only $200.


That goes along way. As Blu goes down, so does HD-DVD. It just depends on how much it matters.

 

[JohnPhi]

Another problem with adoption is this. There was no question in upgrading catalogue vhs or laserdisc titles. The buying of titles on dvd from vhs, often meant getting a film on widescreen for the first time, or with bonus materials, and on a fairly indestructible disk format. Now with HD, you have a quality jump, but not so much on features and so on. What it boils down to is that people will rebuy less, and thus be less motivated to even buy at all.

In the end, one successor most left standing for it to have any chance at taking out dvd. United we stand, divided we fall.

I keep hearing that universal players will save the day, but in the end, that did not help dvd audio and sacd, too little, too late. The same is likely here. It will take much longer for universal player prices to drop to the magic 199 number for mass adoption and by then, people will have moved on or the next best thing will be here

 

[Jason Seaver]

I was thinking about this the other night, and I kind of wonder if the two optical formats aren't just biding time until flash memory prices get low enough to to be used for pre-recorded media. If in five years, you can get 16GB or 32GB on an SD card for a dollar or two, you're talking about something that can be plugged, either directly or via a cheap USB device, into a television, receiver, DVD player, computer, mobile phone, or handheld media player; can be individually watermarked as an anti-piracy measure; and is small enough that someone can put a dozen or so into their pockets. Sure, this may stink for the packaging and disc-art fetishists, but if you figure read-only or write-once-read-many memory is cheaper than RAM, it might not be that far away.

 

[Averry]

No way.


Like either company is "bidding time" by sticking nearly billions into this whole thing.


And if that happens, there's not telling who would benefit from profits from FLash memory.

 

[RickER]

I think people over estimate the movie down load future. The near future anyway. Not everyone has a computer, many still use dial up. My DSL and new computer (Dell XPS 410) are not the fastest at video (I Tunes trailers as an example). Add to that its a pain in the ass. I want easy, and for some of you tech types it is, for many its not easy. I have trouble with the damn I POD music at times!
But the big one, who wants to watch movies on a computer screen? Cause even fewer have all that stuff hooked up to the home theater system. Long way to go, and LOTS of money just to DL a movie?
It may happen, but i will be an old man, and so will you young guys!
DVD in some form HD or not, will be here for a long time! IMO of course

 

[JohnPhi]

ah you assume the we have to be talking pc's. I picture it more like tivo's with massive hard drives, like a vod, on demand, type of thing