What makes Fox beholden to Blu-Ray? (1 Viewer)

[Rob_Walton]

I've heard this Videoscan number quoted before. Does anyone have a link?

BTW I'm fairly sure Amazon don't list any numbers, just sales ranks which can be deduced to any range of sales figures you choose.

 

[RobertDW]

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...&&#post8504357
"Videoscan numbers are in for August finally...

HD-DVD software outsold BD 11 to 1.

11 to 1.

It was 8 to 1 in July.

11 to 1.

That is without a big name title. Batman Begins is estimated to be the first big title for HD-DVD. The title broke into the top 20 on Amazon.com for a limited time. Pre-Orders of the title from Amazon alone are said to be over 20,000 orders. That will make it the top selling HD-DVD title on its first day of release.

WB believes it will sell 50,000 copies in the first week. That means that 90% of everyone who has a HD-DVD player will be out buying it. It also means it will have sold twice as many copies as the previous top seller: Serenity.

Corpse Bride, Charlie & the Chocolate Factory, and T3 are estimated to sell around 15,000 copies in their first month. By the end of October, HD-DVD will have 5 titles that will have outsold every BD sold combined.

Compare that to Click which is estimated to sell around 3,500 copies in its first month and is also estimated to be BD's top selling title.

It's illegal for me to reprint on the internet Videscan numbers (its a paid subscription). It's also illegal for me to reprint the article about estimated sales for both.

It isn't illegal to point out that on Amazon.com the top 10 HD-DVD titles average out to be ranked 584th in movie sales. BD's top 10 average out to 5,662. HD-DVD has 5 titles in the top 150, BD's best day to my knowledge was the top 3,600 for 1 title. They have 5 titles in the top 5,300 currently.

Five best titles for HD-DVD: top 150, BD: top 5,300.

Software sales are completely blowing away BD. Software attachment numbers are crazy high for HD-DVD. September and October numbers are going to be much WORSE for BD. It is 11 to 1 right now, but September numbers could be as high as 15 to 1, and Octobers looks to be devestatingly absurd likely 20 to 1.

So the person in this thread thinking sales are 5 to 1 in favor of HD-DVD is clearly wrong. HD-DVD is crushing BD right now. This is without advertising. The big campaign of $150M starts in late October.

Consider by October HD-DVD player sales are estimated to be at 65,000 while BD sales are estimated to be at 10,000. That is sold not shipped. It is a number from Toshiba, so it could be off. I don't think it is.

Sony is banking that PS3 sales will push software sales of BD up in December over HD-DVD and show that Studios like Disney, Fox, and Lionsgate picked the right brand.

Lionsgate however is rumored to be about to make an announcement that they will have HD-DVD titles available. It's just too hard for them to pass up the money they could be making in HD-DVD.

If Sony doesn't win December (and I'm now thinking they have little to no chance) then Disney is very likely to spurn Sony and go with both formats.

LG is going to announce a Dual-Format (universal) player at CES. Their agreement with Sony won't allow them to release a HD-DVD only player."

 

[TravisR]

Isn't the 11:1 number sort of falsely increased just because there's more HD-DVD titles available? No doubt that HD-DVD is selling better but part of that is because there's more to buy.

 

[Joseph DeMartino]

How is that "falsely" increasing the total? There are more studios supporting BD than HD, yet there are more HD titles on the market? Whose fault is that? The 11:1 ratio accurate reflects both raw sale numbers and the ability of the supporters of each format to bring product to the marketplace. In part the difference in software sales will reflect the difference in the installed hardware base. But are there really 11 HD-DVD players in homes for every 1 Blu Ray player? And even if this were the case, I would expect production runs of each title to be much lower, but I'd be suprised to see the number of titles differ that much. How much of a lead in number of titles does HD have over BD? If it isn't 11:1, I think you're going to have to look for another explanation. With more studios on board with more total titles to choose from, I'd think that BD would be roughly comparable in available titles to HD.

Regards,

Joe

 

[TravisR]

Man, I gotta learn to not ask questions around here. My point was that there's more HD-DVD titles to choose from so of course their numbers are going to be higher than Blu-Ray's. Yes, HD-DVD is selling much better no matter how you break it down (as I said originally). Yes, it's the studios' fault that there isn't more BR software but HD-DVD having more titles will automatically give them the lead.

Sorry to offend you.

 

[Joseph DeMartino]

Who said anyone was offended? You asked a question, I tried to answer it. Where I come from, we call that "conversation" and it is one way to learn new things.

Regards,

Joe

 

[BenjaminG]

An agressive conversation, perhaps. Lol.

 

[Austan]

I think the XBOX360 is outselling the PS3 and Wii by a ratio of 6,000,000 to 0. What's the point of calculating ratios now? Let's wait for the official "official launch" of Blu Ray launch in November and count numbers after Christmas. Even counting the number of movie titles available for each format doesnt matter, most of titles right now are crap anyways... (please dont argue about "crap", everyone's crap smells differently so let me preface: IMHO)

 

[Jesse Blacklow]

Yes, despite the fact that HD DVD player sales have failed to meet in 6 months what DVD reached in 2, and that Toshiba-made is still the only choice for a standalone player, and that blue diode shortages are expected across the board, Warner is lowering their estimates for both formats purely because of poor BD software sales. Gotcha. :rolleyes

 

[Rob_Walton]

Is there really nothing more than an anonymous post on a message board? It's be nice to have a more reliable source on this one.

 

[Joseph DeMartino]

Please tell me you're joking with this comparison. A DVD player in March of 1997 could work with every TV in America. An HD-DVD player can work with - what? 4% of TVs? 5%?

Apples.

Oranges.

Any questions?

Regards,

Joe

 

[Austan]

Not too many TVs had component video inputs in 1997 and over 15 million household have HDTV. I'm sure HD players have outputs that would make them compatable with almost every TV in America to.

 

[Joseph DeMartino]

There are plenty of "HDTV households" who don't get digital satellite or even digital cable, much less HD service. They're folks who needed to buy a new TV in the past year or so and knew that the mandate for all digital was coming in 2009 - so they decided to "future proof" their investment by buying at least an HD-capable set now and worrying about adding HD service later. These folks are not going to be rushing out to buy HD or BD players or discs anytime soon.

The bottom line remains that the total potential market for both hi-def DVD formats is a fraction of what the potential market for DVD was, and that comparisons of sales in the first two months, six months or two years are going to be meaningless. The above attempt to defend that proposition just underscored how ludicrous it really is.

Regards,

Joe

 

[ppltd]

I assume you are talking about the release of the PS3. BD lauched 5 months ago. HD 7 months ago. While I am sure it did not work out quite the way they wanted, it is what it is.

We are just moving into a new phase of the marketing, as with all new systems. More hardware (on both sides), more releases, and maybe, finally, some decent advertising.

Thomas Eisenmann

 

[FrancisP]

There were a number of advantages that SD had over videocassetes that appealed to the average person. A better picture even with coaxial cable. Less wear and tear. much easier to store than videocassette. The advantages of HD over SD are going to a much tougher sell. The average person is not going to drop another $20-30 to buy a movie again so they can see every blade of grass.

 

[Cees Alons]

That's a fact, but a true and faithful Blu-rayer only starts counting when Sony is involv... hey, wait a minute!




Cees

 

[ppltd]

First the good news..... The only selling point for HD is in viewing in a real envirornment for the average viewer. I have had numerous friends over to view my HD setup, and while none showed interest in HD prior, almost without a miss, after viewing, they were sold.

Now for the rest of the story......

While some were blown away by the sight and sound of the films, it was actually a HD broadcast of a footbal game on a 106" screen that sold most of 'em. Oh well, guess you take it any way you can get it.

Side note: One thing I noticed. When I discussed HD formats, the comment I got from most was Blue what???? They understood HD-DVD immediatly. Makes sense as they knew HD and knew DVD and could put the two together. But no one knew Blu-Ray. Maybe a change in name is in order.

When we live HD day to day I think we lose sight of the fact that the average consummer does not know the key words we do. Sony and Toshiba had better get into gear with their advertising.

Thomas Eisenmann

 

[James D S]

LOL Joseph is steamrolling.

 

[Austan]

According to the Leichtman Research Report 2005, HDTV sets are now in over 12% of US households.
So did they get all the video quality they wanted from composite video inputs or did the get the Dolby Digital sound tracks when there were practically no decoders?

Anyone on these forums no matter how arrogant they are can post any numbers and any bit of "fact" they would like to prove their simpleton opinions.

But enough of the flaming words... We all know its going to be a slow adoption and I was in no way defending the comparison of VHS vs DVD to HD vs SD. Just pointing out that bogus number to contradict a bogus comparason doesnt make a legit argument.

 

[PeterTHX]

Is it only me where it's October 10th, making the launch 3 1/2 months ago?

(BD launched June 25th)

Besides, according to the competition, Blu-ray *IS* Sony and no other.