Universal at CES (1 Viewer)

[Dave Moritz]

Here is another article claiming that Paramount may be going Blu.

TechCrunch
Game Over: HD DVD To Join Deadpool

This is the first story that Paramount claimed was not true.
Finacial Times Article: Paramount in HD-DVD Blow
FT.com / Mergermarket - Paramount in HD DVD blow

There is no way Universal can keep HD-DVD afloat by themselves. I looks to me that the final nails are going into HD-DVD coffin. Its just a matter of time before they have the funeral and the burial as well. The writting is on the wall, Toshiba must see this. We should know soon what Universal and Toshiba's next moves will be. Has anyone come across any articles stating that Universal is testing Blu-ray discs for sure? Also I am starting to feel that maybe Universal is rethinking its possition since they have not anounced any new titles at CES. I would not think anything of it if they where the only one not anouncing HD titles. But Paramount and Dreamworks have also not released any information on new releases. Couple this with Toshiba cancelling all its press conferences and it makes you wonder what is really going on with HD-DVD right now? Will Toshiba be making a suprise anouncment anytime soon? Will Universal Pictures be the next studio to shock Toshiba buy anouncing support for Blu-ray?

This is almost like a rollercoaster ride right now.

 

[Rich Allen]

I kind of doubt anything would shock Toshiba right now. I suspect that there will be a bit of "wait and see" by all parties right now, digesting everything.

 

[Adam Gregorich]

At this point there actually is an incentive to Toshiba/Paramount and Universal dragging things out. They could all be jockeying for better terms. Toshiba could drop player prices and fund combos only from Universal and Paramount (replacing standard DVD) just to act as a spoiler. Likely? Not really, but stranger things can happen. WB moving to BD does not guarantee it's sucess, just makes it more likely. The stakes are now higher for Sony.

 

[Adam Gregorich]

It's funny that what we discuss and sometimes passionately argue about the general public that the studios need to make this a success could care less about. That has always been Sony's biggest problem--even bigger than HD DVD IMHO).

 

[Dave Moritz]

Well that would depend on if the current news articles are acurate regaurding HD-DVD.

• Paramount preparing to go Blu-ray ????
• Universal working with Blu-ray test discs ???
• 20 Comanies removing there support for HD-DVD ???

If true then there is definantly no wait and see attitude going on. WB going Blu definantly made the take a big step back. They even cancled press conferences and Toshiba seems to be MIA for the most part. The two major studios have not announced any HD titles at CES for 2008. There are rumoers that Paramount may be jumping ship because of a claus in there contract that say's if WB leaves they can do so as well. Not sure how true that is but there have been around 3 different articles making the same claims, that Paramount is preparing to go Blu. Then there is Universal which claims they are sticking with HD-DVD, but they are claims that Universal is testing Blu-ray samples. And now up to 20 companies may be pulling there support away from HD-DVD. I would say that Toshiba just got clocked in the head really good and they are trying to pick themselves up and figure out how they can save HD-DVD. This is a train wreck waiting to happen, its just a matter of will it happen in a few days or at the end of the year? Any chance of Toshiba pulling this out of the fire is quickly disapearing and the window of oprotunity is about to vanish forever. Nether MS or the porn industry can save HD-DVD at this point, but consumers will definantly have the oprotunity to grab up lots of HD-DVD titles once the fire sales begin.


I am not ready to say the war is over, but it is heading that way very fast!

And the fat lady is walking down the hall and is aproching the microphone.

 

[Rich Allen]

Considering they are mostly rumours at this point, it's all specualtion. If they were as shocked about Warners announcement as some claim, it would pay for them to be patient and calmly evaluate all their options.

And what 20 companies are these? I didn't think there were half that many?

 

[Bryan Beckman]

I know that the conversation has already moved past this point, but did anyone notice that the OP's link to the WSJ article was broken?

I've researched everything the WSJ has printed on the format war since Friday's announcement, and there's nothing at all from Ken Graffeo. However, his statement did look a little familiar . . .

. . . And then I recognized where I had read it. DVDTown posted the entire HD-DVD Promotional Group's CES press release on its website (which you can read here). The press release was obviously written up before Warner's announcement. If you look about six paragraphs down the page, you'll find Graffeo's statement. Look familiar?

 

[PeterMano]

I think you're forgetting that sony and toshiba might be rivals in HDM, but they are long time partners with the EE in the ps2 and the cell in the ps3.

Dragging things out if the conclusion is foregone will not bode well for toshiba and could hamper alliances and partnerships with not just sony but any future parties. Who wants to deal with a partner if they show themselves to have a highly vindictive streak. Having lost a battle, their response was to destroy a format.

If toshiba has a win strategy they can bring out of the closet, fine by me, but a drag out and hang on till the bitter end and pissing off big box retailers, frustrating the studios and consumers alike, what is that going to get them, but negative press and disdain from the media and have some hd dvd fanboys all going, you own, tosh. I would likely not even look at a toshiba set to replace my aging rptv. Toshiba has a great more to potentially lose if they act out as a spoiler and drag their heels to no purpose.

 

[Dave>h]

I don't know how anyone can claim that Blu Ray is the winner when the product is still not ready for prime time - 2 years after its release.

2 years and they still haven't worked out all the interactivity bugs, 2 years and still no in movie experience, 2 years and they are still finalizing their format. 2 years and now all of their original players won't work with the new features - way to support your original client base Sony!

And people want this format to win? Seriously?

The only thing that Blu has going for it at this point from a technical stand point is 50 gigs and a better transfer rate. Their customer support is very poor, their product is flawed and their costs are way to high.

And people want this format to win?? Seriously??

And if they do win, what then? Player prices that are too high for people to consider (becasue they now have no incentive i.e. competition to bring player prices down), software prices that are too high (and again no competition thus no incentive to bring prices down) poor customer support, no innovation. the list goes on and on.

Careful what you wish for here people, you may not like what you end up with.

Dave

 

[PaulDA]

Toshiba should make a rapid commitment to put out a hybrid player (or set of players that mirror their current lineup for capabilities) with a similar MSRP structure. If done quickly enough, that could enduce Paramount/Universal to remain HD DVD while making swift inroads into the hardware arena (current hybrids are too expensive to gain mainstream acceptance).

Why would this be a benefit to Toshiba? Profits from continued HD DVD production (licences and such). Bigger market share of hardware (and consumer friendly pricing would make them popular).

Why would this be a benefit to the current "red" studios? Lower production costs than BRD and no costly "escapes".

Why would this benefit the consumer? Affordable hybrid players make disc buying simpler (hi-res audio was simpler for me once I got a hybrid). Lower price players (if Toshiba chooses to subsidize the hardware rather than try to "buy" a studio for software support). Each format on the software side would be more motivated, with competition, to turn out better product (as noted in the "thanks to HD DVD" thread, BDR had to improve quickly in the face of better HD DVD quality at the outset).

In the end, I don't really care, as I will remain in the HDM realm however I have to go about it. But if Toshiba wants to keep HD DVD alive, I think it needs to move to hybrid hardware.

 

[Ronald Epstein]

Dave,

You make a terrific post above.

This is why most of us were outraged that individuals were trying
to sell that format to us as the one we had to pick.

Many HD-DVD owners have been livid about being told we should
have picked Blu-ray when there were so many problems and bugs
with the players.

My present player (Pana BD10) is a few months old and isn't
up to par with new interactive technology about to be introduced
by Blu-ray. Most all of us that own a standalone Blu-Ray player
own an outdated model that will need replacing.

I'm not knocking Blu-Ray, but Dave's post brings home the fact
as to why so many HD-DVD owners such as myself were highly,
highly disgusted with some people's efforts to convince us that
one format was better than the other.

I'm happy for Blu-Ray being the victor here, but as far as I was
concerned, HD-DVD was equally as good.

 

[Adam Gregorich]

Ron you actually have the BD10. The BD 30 Adds 1.1 support, but removes internal decoding. The BD50 annouced at CES will be the one to get as it restores the internal decoding removed from the BD30 and adds BD Live (ethernet support).

 

[Keith Paynter]

In the opera world, it's my understanding that the fat lady doesn't need a microphone...

 

[Blaine]

While somewhat off-topic, I was comparing the Panasonic players the other day:

The DMP-BD30 improves on the DMP-BD10 with:
HDMI 1.3a Support (DTS-HD-MA & Dolby TrueHD and Deep Color)
Profile 1.1 support
1080p24 Output (via HDMI only)

However, the DMP-BD10 is better with:
Video D/A Converter 297MHz/14bit vs. 148.5MHz/12bit
7.1 channel output vs 5.1 channel output (analog)
Audio S/N 125dB vs 115dB
Dynamic Range 118dB vs 100dB

To my thinking, they reduced some of the performance to get a better price point. While the internal decoder on the BD10 will only achieve DTS-HD High Resoution (and not Master Audio), it's still a damn fine player.

Although I have to say that - since I paid retail for it back when it was a zillion dollars late in 2006. The price of early adoption - I suppose.

 

[Ronald Epstein]

Thanks for the confirmation, Adam. That's what I get for
trying to pull a model number off the top of my head.

Regardless, the player isn't ready for the next advancement
to happen to its format.

 

[Jari K]

Yep.

Seriously speaking, most of us know that Blu-ray and HD DVD are (give or take) quite equal, so if Blu-ray now "wins", people will have a very good HD-format. And the one with 50gb capacity. If people really (I mean truly) believe that it´s a "bad format", they probably should first come down to the "format war" mountain and start thinking these things a bit more.. realistically, perhaps? It´s not that somebody is about to steal your job or your woman. Two (again - give or take) equal HD-formats are competing, that´s all.

But, eventually the time will tell. I´ll keep supporting HD-films, no matter what the outcome is. But now I hope that we can finally end this war.

 

[Shane Martin]

It was but IMHO their marketing failed them.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Ron,

I agree with both you and Dave that HD DVD "had their act together" regarding full specs in their hardware from day one (well... a few days later... their first player had to be firmware updated for 5.1 TrueHD, but splitting hairs here).

And it does suck for early BD adoptors that the players they have probably aren't profile 1.1 (PIP) and certainly aren't 2.0 (web).

However, most of the "in the know" enthusiasts on forums like this who cared about having 1.1 or 2.0 without having to replace their player just solved the dilemma by getting the PS3 which is not only updatable to 1.1 (already), but also 2.0 (announced and soon). What this means is that BD consumers who *wanted * to buy a player that could weather all the upgrades until full 2.0 came out had an option.

Also, notice the *timing* of Warner's announcement. Among other things, it comes * after * all new BD players are required to be profile 1.1... so that least gets consumers the interactivity (most of the consumers who are running out now to buy their first BD player are getting a profile 1.1 player). I agree that full 2.0 should also be here by now, and I think it's REDICULOUS that the BDA couldn't have whipped those manufacturers into shape to get it out sooner. It also pisses me off that the BDA yielded to manufacturers demands to keep 2.0 optional (though I suspect that by this time next year all BD players will be 2.0 compliant by default... new chips make it not that much more costly over basic 1.1).

Of course the BDA had a challenge that Toshiba didn't have: manufacturers. Notice how many manufacturers vote in the BDA and also produce actual hardware. Notice how *few* manufacturers make up the HD DVD group *and* produce actual hardware. See the trend? I'll bet that if Toshiba had as many manufacturers on their team to contend with, they would probably have made spec-concessions too to make them happy to convince them to release gear.

My basic point is that there's always something behind the outcome we see... it's never just a matter of a simple decision when it comes to corporately-aggreed-upon specs and requirements.

In any case,

we're FINALLY going to see a stand-alone BD player that's actually full-spec: The Panny BD50. And it will be a sweet machine with 7.1 analog output ta-boot. Hopefully other manufactures will step up to the plate to avoid being left in the dust that I'm sure that player will generate, and hopefully the cost will fall to where lower-cost hardware is today within a few months.

It's frustrated me so much that the BDA gave in and allowed manufacturers to dictate some of the compromises we've seen in hardware spec requirements. They literally GAVE Toshiba bragging-rights regarding hardware as a result, and they've paid the price as witnessed in your thoughts and in Dave's. The bright side is that probably by this time next year, it will be a distant memory with 2.0 gear on the market. And I think that when LOTR finally comes to 50GB BD with 24-bit lossless sound (and Transformers gets released on blu with lossless and folks who thought it wouldn't make a difference discover that they actually *can* hear the improvement of full lossless even on that title), many HD DVD enthusiats will start to realize how some of the "technical advantages" of BD really do have a pay-off worth owning.

HD media will be with us for a LONG time. Those discs will be in our collections for decades... many of us still have our laserdisc from 20 years ago.

The beauty of BD is that while we all agree it under-performed out of the gate and still has some hardware catching up to do in regards to HD DVD, in the *long term* the benefits of being able to produce transparent video *and* audio on every title will be worth the price of BD's hardware evolution. 20 years from now that lossless audio will still sound just like the master, and that's more important than the specs of your first BD player.

 

[Douglas Monce]

I tend to agree with you Dave. Its sad that it seems that the format that is clearly lacking is going to win. A shame.

Doug

 

[Douglas Monce]

Its not that its a bad format. It's just that it's a format that they should have waited about 2 years to release. It's just not ready for prime time.

Doug