The downside to fragmentation (1 Viewer)

[DaveF]

Could be. It's a risky change, if Samsung does it.http://www.gottabemobile.com/2013/11/13/samsung-tops-android-63-device-market-share/But if Samsung does it, let me suggest you should ask why would users keep using Google Android. Samsung has over half of Android smartphones. All they need is for the top apps to be recompiled for their OS, keep dominating sales, and you start to wonder why not just develop for the dominate non-Apple smartphone and not bother with Googles system.Another view: even lowly Microsoft Metro Windows 7 Phone 8 has apps. So why wouldnt app developers, already dealing with multiple app stores and fragmented Android (including Amazon's fork) and iOS, do a quick recompile for a Samsung phone that represents 25-50% (?) of new smartphones sold every year?I'm assuming Samsung is essentially cloning Android, as described earlier. Something that is easy for developers to build apps for, and doesn't break anything to users, no more than upgrading phones every two years does.

 

[RobertR]

If it's a "clone" of Android, it's not sufficiently differentiated to bother with. If it's very different from Android, that means starting essentially from scratch. Don't see why people would want that. Don't see how anyone would benefit.

 

[DaveF]

We're talking past each other.What I'm suggesting, is that's what they're already doing. They've got some slightly differentiated version of Android with their S-Pen and TouchWiz and etc. But they're still slaved to Google. So fork off. Start compatible. Take their 63% market share. And then start differentiating. In a couple iterations, they are the non-iPhone smartphone everyone buys and develops for. Google's Android, on all the non-selling, non-profitable HTC and Motorola phones, becomes the oddball non-standard variant. The market may be large enough, and Samsung's desire for independence strong enough, that they can thrive as yet another smartphone variant. Another view is: this is for the super lowend market, which only uses open source Android, and none of the GooglePlay services. That market won't miss that stuff and Samsung can start grabbing that, building its OS independence, and then try to move it up the food chain and steal users from a Google and Apple.

 

[Sam Posten]

Another fragment bites the dust, sorta:http://mobile.theverge.com/2014/3/7/5478198/the-indie-game-console-may-already-be-dead

 

[RobertR]

We're talking past each other.What I'm suggesting, is that's what they're already doing. They've got some slightly differentiated version of Android with their S-Pen and TouchWiz and etc.

Android is so customizable, with various launchers, etc. (I run Nova Launcher and WidgetLocker, which could lead some people to think I'm not running "standard" Android), that it's stretching things to call Touchwiz a "differentiated version of Android". It's still Android. It's hard to see how Samsung will be able to create an alternative to Google, or why people would want that.

 

[Hanson]

It sounds like saber rattling on Samsung's part. They aren't leaving Android any time in the near future. But they want Google to know that they have a plan B, that it's viable enough that it's no empty threat, and so back off my toes. The more it seems like Tizen can happen, the louder the rattling sounds to Google.

The biggest problem with jumping into Tizen is the immediate hit Samsung would take in marketshare. At this point, a lot of people have a lot invested in Android and Google Services. It's not simply a matter of rebuying apps -- what about your Gmail? Google Maps? YouTube? It's not just a Facebook app. It's everything. A lot of people will stick with Android. I think there is zero chance that I would buy a Tizen phone, and I'm not alone.

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

Nobody's really buying Samsung phones in some sort of brand loyalty/fan kinda way. Samsung has built up a decent brand name over the past couple decades, but it's nowhere near what Sony had been or Apple is (or Canon and Nikon).

Many will probably jump elsewhere if Samsung pulls the switcheroo in the forseeable future... unless they make sure their OS remains fully compatible w/ Android apps (w/out jumping thru hoops and such). Sure, some will stay, but is it really worth the trouble and risk for them at least for the forseeable future? Doubt it...

_Man_

 

[Sam Posten]

I am not a huge fan of Forbes but more evidence from them that shows sticking to Google Play vice other app stores is a smart move:http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonkelly/2014/03/24/report-97-of-mobile-malware-is-on-android-this-is-the-easy-way-you-stay-safe/

 

[Sam Posten]

Another data point:

I’ve seen a lot more fragmentation-related problem since working on WordPress, but I still maintain that fragmentation is less of an issue than is commonly believed.That’s not to say, of course, that it isn’t a problem at all.I think the biggest problem is that unless your app is relatively new, you probably have to continue supporting Android 2.3. Making sure your app works on that ugly, buggy OS is a massive pain. Every Android developer I know will dance in the streets the day they can drop support for pre-ICS versions of Android.

BUT!

I’m sure these issues look horrific to iOS developers, who are blessed by only needing to support a few devices and OS versions. But they’re certainly not as horrific as the press often makes fragmentation sound, and they’re far easier to deal with than all the fragmentation problems I encountered back when I developed for Windows.

This seems smart:http://www.geek.com/android/google-mandates-powered-by-android-branding-on-new-devices-1589253/

 

[Sam Posten]

Hmmmm. More Apple like all the time:http://techcrunch.com/2014/03/29/google-cracks-down-on-deceptive-ads-and-other-shady-behaviors-found-in-android-apps/

 

[DaveF]

Hmmmm. More Apple like all the time:http://techcrunch.com/2014/03/29/google-cracks-down-on-deceptive-ads-and-other-shady-behaviors-found-in-android-apps/

Further indication of Google's desire to corral "Android" into the brand vice "Samsung" and "HTC" and etc. smartphones.
http://www.theverge.com/2014/3/28/5558242/google-reportedly-requires-powered-by-android-branding-on-phones

 

[Dougofthenorth]

Further indication of Google's desire to corral "Android" into the brand vice "Samsung" and "HTC" and etc. smartphones.
http://www.theverge.com/2014/3/28/5558242/google-reportedly-requires-powered-by-android-branding-on-phones

"resistance is futile"

Gee, I wonder why Samsung wants to continue to develop its own independent OS ??

 

[Sam Posten]

How's that railing against Apple's walled garden working out for you?
https://medium.com/p/c62f2404f66

Conclusions:
Open is a powerful concept, the reality of it is just another walled garden
Don't mix up your personal accounts with your business ones
"Doing these guys a favor" is a road to unexpected negative consequences
Google's pervasiveness can be scary
Dealing with bots instead of humans for resolution isn't good for anyone
Independent software development is a business. "I'm not a lawyer" is no excuse

 

[Sam Posten]

Hmm:

Android’s fragmentation is a contentious topic. When I blogged about it a few months back, I encountered both hostility and denial. So here are two examples from our experience:

http://techcrunch.com/2014/04/06/the-fallacy-of-android-first/?ncid=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Techcrunch+%28TechCrunch%29

That gives specific anecdotal data that Android was the wrong choice for THEM. As you know I'm fond of saying "the plural of anecdotes is not data". But from the original article comes a section I DO agree with wholeheartedly:

Choice Reduces Satisfaction
As a society we’re deluded about choice.
We perpetuate the myth that more is better — yet there’s research going back decades to suggest the opposite.
Perhaps the most famous is Sheena Iyengar’s 1995 "jam jar study", which showed a 4x increase in options decreased purchases by 85%.
Iyengar’s study is not alone. Barry Schwartz’s excellent book The Paradox of Choice covers the problem in detail. Of particular interest is his discussion of how choice affects buyer’s remorse. The more choices you consider, the more likely you’ll be to regret your decision, and the less satisfied you’ll be.

http://sixrevisions.com/user-interface/androids-problem/

 

[RobertR]

from the original article comes a section I DO agree with wholeheartedly:

Considering the fact that Android has dramatically increased its market share since you started this thread, and is now at almost 80%, I'd say such citations are rather meaningless with respect to the topic at hand. Future slowdown in growth will be due to market saturation, not because people will say Android gives them "too much choice".

 

[Sam Posten]

Again there is a huuuuuge difference between platform adoption and app sales. I remain interested in the latter despite the former and quality developers continue to note that their experiences do not mesh up with what the marketplace of consumers should give them.

 

[RobertR]

And I'll continue to enjoy all the marvelous Android apps I've downloaded. Something hundreds of millions of other people do all the time (they have over a million to choose from, something else that's grown tremendously since the thread was started).

 

[Sam Posten]

Yup, you are right. It DOES seem like Android users are opening their wallets (and hearts!) to apps!

http://www.androidpolice.com/2014/04/06/the-1-new-paid-app-in-the-play-store-costs-4-has-over-10000-downloads-a-4-7-star-rating-and-its-a-total-scam/

 

[RobertR]

Golly gee! There are dishonest people on the Internet! Unprecedented! Everyone knows NO other internet site EVER has such problems! It's inconceivable at the Istore!

https://discussions.apple.com/thread/3801852?tstart=0

http://www.tuaw.com/2014/01/10/the-strange-shady-world-of-1-000-ios-apps/

http://gizmodo.com/5974817/apples-app-store-is-finally-cracking-down-on-the-screenshot-scam

 

[Sam Posten]

Interesting angle on how Amazon is handling the challenges of running forked android, including the loss of semi-core apps from Google:http://www.loopinsight.com/2014/04/12/amazons-push-to-get-developers-to-build-for-their-new-smartphone/?utm_source=loopinsight.com&utm_campaign=loopinsight.com&utm_medium=referral