Should we worry? (1 Viewer)

[Marc Colella]

The digital conversion has nothing to do with HDTV and doesn't require people to purchase one to view broadcasts.

 

[Bryan^H]

Take out the option of buying online, and you don't have a choice. Every store I go to the prices are the same. Not complaining, I'm just stating that $30 is the average price of Blu-Ray discs.

 

[PaulDA]

Taking out the online buying option, for anyone economically well enough off to afford this hobby (having an HT--not movie watching itself), is, in the aggregate, a voluntary choice. As such, it generates less sympathy than it otherwise might.

Beyond that, when VHS releases were routinely 110$ or more, people just rented. No one is required to own a copy. Clearly a lower price structure would increase sales--but incentives to create such structures are more complex than they might initially appear.

 

[Douglas Monce]

While this is true, VHS tapes were priced that high precisely because it was thought that people would not want to buy a movie. Studios were making up the cost of producing a limited number of rental tapes by charging $80 to $100. It was only after Paramount started releasing some films at $19.95 as a test, starting I believe with Beverly Hills Cop, that they found out people would actually buy these things.

A good point is being made however. If you either don't want, or can't buy movies on line (some people are unable to get a credit card or visa debit) then you are forced to pay top dollar for blu-ray movies. This isn't to say that you can't find a good deal in the B&M stores, they are just much harder to come by.

But lets face it. The studios have been uncomfortable with the general public having unfettered access to their movies from the start of home video. They sued unsuccessfully to have the betamax machine made illegal in the U.S. DRM proves that they are still uncomfortable with this concept. But now they are kind of stuck as home video is more than half of their take on any given movie. However I think they are still looking for a model where you pay for it at home, but you don't actually own anything.

Doug

 

[Robert Crawford]

I don't see anybody asking for sympathy, but this is a HT-related forum so I would expect discussion about pricing and this hobby to be from the HT enthusiast perspective.

 

[David Wilkins]

eBay can be a good source for bargain hunters, once you're familiar with the in's, out's and sand traps of doing business on eBay.

 

[Douglas Monce]

Interesting. I see on the back of my Netflix rental envelope, that LG is now making a blu-ray player, that will also give you access to the Netflix streaming movies. I think the idea of streaming movies taking over at least the rental market maybe coming true very soon.

Doug

 

[Sanjay Gupta]

Worry about what? That BD may not become as mainstream as DVD or BD may not totally replace DVD? I am sure, no one is even suggesting that BD is going to suddenly dissapear and studios will no longer release titles on BD. For if someone is really suggesting that, then they really need to do a reality check and they really have no idea about anything at all. Can you imagine the studios shutting down a source of revenue, mind you a far more profitable source than DVD, when it already is giving them an approximate 10% share of the new releases Home Video market. That is an already much larger share of the market than Laser Discs could garner after almost 20 yrs of existence. Do keep in mind that for BD, this is only two and a half years into the lifespan of the format and less than one year from the end of the format war. By the way, even with the miniscule share of less than 2%, the studios continued to release titles on laser discs well after DVD had started to go mainstream. If figures matter, then here is another one, during the entire lifespan of Laser Disc, there was never a title that crossed 200,000 sales, whereas BD in just two and a half years has already achieved sales of approx 1,500,000 copies of Dark Knight, with several titles having crossed the 200,000 mark. If inspite of this success, people are expressing doubts about BD dissapearing, then it's only because they have a hidden agenda to promote.

As for the question of whether BD will ever become as mainstream as DVD or for that matter whether it will ever replace DVD completely, I say, who cares? Personally I am a hundred percent sure that DVD will be around a long time, as there is simply no need for thousands of titles to ever be on BD and that both formats will simply compliment each other. BD ofcourse will become the predominant format for all new theatrical titles and all HD TV titles. Also, people will slowly and slowly simply stop buying DVD players as cheaper BD players become available. The fact that all BD players play DVDs and in fact actually play the DVDs better than the average cheapo DVD player, leaves no reson for anyone to buy a DVD only player once the BD player prices start falling in the range of an upscaling DVD player. This is my opinion and I am personally willing to bet good money on it and I am sure the studios too have a very similiar bent of mind.

 

[Jesse Blacklow]

I would also expect that if they're, you know, on-line and with enough money to support HT as a hobby, then they have both the source and the means to find better prices at places like Amazon. The "they might not have credit" argument is dubious at best (and considering the US is built on credit--however shaky that may be--that applies to both HT enthusaists and the general population at the moment), and with on-line retailers increasing their business significantly with every passing day, it's getting less and less reasonable to complain. Not to mention that DVD pricing wasn't nearly as "accessible" as people here are making it out to be. And if one wants to complain about prices, try not to be intellectually dishonest and point out stuff like $5-$10 bin DVDs vs $30-$40 Blu-rays at MSRP only. That's just not the case most of the time (recent studies showed the average price difference was $10, not $30), and MSRP is becoming less and less relevant with the large rise of both on-line retailing and discount outlets.

 

[Jesse Blacklow]

I should also point out that the people who seem to "worrying" (read: complaining) the most have an annoying tendency to use DVD as the baseline for success vs. failure. That's just lazy, IMO. To compare a 2-year old format to a 11-year old format is laughable all on it's own, but to say that Blu-ray is niche or even worse, DOOMED because it's not selling as well as DVD is even more so. After all, DVD was (and still is) the fastest-growing, largest video format ever. "Worrying" about Blu-ray's very existence in this case would be like saying that someone is a failure at swimming for no other reason than the fact that they're not Michael Phelps. It's a concern that holds no water (no pun intended), and IMO shows that the concerned party is being a wee bit Chicken Little-ish. And of course, if said party has not coincidentally been vocally unhappy with Blu-ray since the official announcements (or even before), that gives rise to a lot of doubt.

 

[lukejosephchung]

Considering the prodigious sales figures for both HDTV's and Blu-ray players this past Holiday Season, I'd be very surprised if the format doesn't become even more mainstream by the end of 2009!

 

[Bryan^H]

The MSRP is usually $35-40 on Blu titles.

So they are cheaper in stores at $30. I have done research on Blu-Ray titles at Amazon , and Deepdiscount. Prices usually trend at around $27 per title. Not a reasonable amount of savings to make it worth the charge(or wait).

 

[PaulDA]

Then don't buy them. It's that simple. Product manufacturers are under no obligation (for any product--much less discretionary things like entertainment) to make their products affordable to ALL potential buyers. They are not a charity. In the history of discretionary products (like entertainment), prices reflect one of two things--what the market will bear (the overwhelming majority) and loss-leading prices with ulterior goals. "What the market will bear" is in constant flux (as companies are usually in the business of staying in business) and loss-leading comes and goes depending on the motive for it.

I buy what I can afford. I NEVER expect a product supplier to cater to my desires. I decide what value a particular product has relative to my ability to pay for it and act accordingly. I consider a BD to be a superior product to an SD DVD and expect to pay for that extra quality. How much extra is for me to decide. If the producers think it is worth X amount more and I believe it is only worth Y amount more, then I'll wait. If, in the aggregate, others agree with me, then "what the market will bear" will move towards my position. If others are comfortable with X amount, I'm out of luck. That's how free market economics work. And while there may be some products that are necessities where pure "free market economics" are not applicable, discretionary entertainment is NOT among those products.

IF the producers fail to adjust to market realities, it's their problem and they will have injured themselves. I, however, have no "rights" in the matter, nor do I have "expectations" of satisfaction. The market sets the price and I act accordingly.

 

[RobertR]

To add to Paul's post, the fact that some are complaining that prices aren't as low as DVD is hardly a reason to worry about the format's existence or survival.

 

[Rachael B]

I don't think anybody in this disc-cusion thinks Blu-ray is gonna just go belly-up in some 'X' number of months, anos, or light years. I just hate to see the format flounder, relatively, over awful priceing. I'd like to see format get robust with a large selection. It needs mass-market acceptance for that. I don't want Blu to retreat to a situation like LD did for me, where virtually all my new purchases came from Ken Cranes in far off Kalafornie via the Post. It's fun to go out and shop in person. Right now, it's too close to that already.

My legitimate concern is that in a year or two that most local retailers will decide that shelf space is too valuable to devote to BD's that sell much slower than frozen Molasses rolls. I suspect the BDA doesn't want that to happen and prices will continue to drift down, grudgingly! The BDA just does it's best to crimp the fun factor of BD with prices and firmware hassles. They best remember that consumers are like light switches and once you flip one off, it's difficult and expensive to get 'em back in the dark, darkness.

On rare occasions reality even strikes them Hollywood hills like a mighty quake. We'll see....tune in for the exciting daytime drama, As The Economy Turns. Follow the wacky shenanigans of some very crazy guyz on the Blu-ray pricing committee. Wheather it's darts for dollars or list price Golf, you'll fall in.......

 

[Edwin-S]

I just don't see why some people think that BD will flounder like Laser Disc. The format is only two to two and a half years old and there is more product penetration on store shelves than Laser Disc ever did in its entire existence. Even after years on the market, Laser Disc in small market areas like I live in, was limited to a few specialty record shops. I saw very little Laser Disc product in mainstream stores. The same cannot be said for BD. It may be expensive relative to DVD, but it certainly has more market presence than LD ever had.

I just don't see a need to worry about this. BD may not become mainstream as fast as DVD did, but it will become mainstream over time. People are replacing their sets every day and when they do the replacement is going to be an HD set. The availability of HD sources is going to become more and more important to those people. BD will become one of the sources that people will elect to use, among others. Pay per view movies didn't kill rental stores and I don't expect downloading to kill packaged media like BD or even rental stores. Downloading will just become one more option that some will elect to use and others won't.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Furthermore, a format is not niche if it can sell 1.5M units of "The Dark Knight" in just two weeks.

 

[Robert Crawford]

We are having a discussion here about the future of Blu-ray and the pricing of that product. Just telling us not to buy it, isn't cutting it for those of us that want to discuss this issue. If you don't have a problem with how this market is set then that's fine with me. However, I resent somebody trying to preach to me about how market economics work and that I have no rights as a consumer and just allow the market to set the price. There is nothing wrong with consumers having a discussion about lower product pricing and the future of a home video format.





Crawdaddy

 

[Robert Crawford]

I agree with you there.

 

[Joe Karlosi]

Problem is, there is NO WAY I'm going to have my debit info floating around the internet. I don't like doing it with my credit card already as it is.