Peak Oil Thread (1 Viewer)

[Brian Perry]

I have a question about CAFE standards. As someone mentioned, it is virtually impossible for a car manufacturer to design or re-design a car within 2 or 3 years to meet tighter CAFE requirements. However, can't they just eliminate the offering of higher HP engines?

Let's look at the BMW 5-series. BMW has always offered a base 6-cylinder engine, an upgraded V8, and even a supercharged V8 (for the M-version) of the 5-series. How does CAFE treat those different versions? Is the average MPG based on how many cars of each engine are actually sold? If BMW wanted to instantly improve CAFE mileage, I would think they could sell just the 6-cylinder engine and stop offering the V8s (of course, the market may not like that).

 

[Don Solosan]

"No oil man poo-poos the concept of peak oil. It's the timing that's the question."

Phillip, maybe not geologists with dirt on their boots, but exec types sure do. They ridiculed Hubbert (did you ever see the "Hubbert's Pimple" ad?), they hired monkeys like the people at Cambridge Energy Research Associates to release cornucopian fantasies to the mainstream media, etc. Its only fairly recently that they've started admitting that there's a new petroleum landscape, and it isn't the one they're happy with.

"(are there any major oil producing nations that are actually good allies of ours?)"

Kurt, Canada and Mexico are our number one and two sources for imports. So, yes.

 

[Philip Hamm]

Another important thing to think about regarding fuel taxes is, what are the taxes used for? In most of Europe the fuel taxes have been used to build highly efficient, accessible, and easy to use public transportation systems. Consumers understand this, and as the results of the tax spending are so obiously beneficial and so tangibly result in convenient alternatives, are not seen so much as a burden.

 

[KurtEP]

I wonder how useful public transportation is in many parts of the U.S. I know that where I currently live, people are very spread out. It would be very difficult to make public transportation effective here. On the other hand, a well thought out system in a large city is a great thing. I'd never consider driving into NYC, I'd rather take the bus or subway. Much more convenient and less expensive.

 

[Jay Taylor]

Lindsey Williams has an interesting conspiracy theory on Peak Oil:
The Energy Non-Crisis

 

[Philip Hamm]

That video is nonsense and Lindsey Williams is a kook. Google his name for a journey into Internet kookland.

 

[Philip Hamm]

The public transportation infrastructure around Washington, DC is pitiful. Massive buildout capacity. There aren't many cities in the USA which are well served by public transportation. NYC and Philly (and much of NJ between them) come to mind with their extensive regional rail, but other than that, there is a LOT which could be done.

 

[KurtEP]

And echoing something that was said earlier in this thread, there is a lot that needs to be done now. I used to live near a railroad bridge, and I'd often check it out while out walking. I wouldn't have gone over that thing in a train for love or money. I had a hard time believing it was even in (daily) use. The beams were rotted (rusted) and falling apart. It looked like a tragedy waiting to happen.

 

[DaveF]

I have trouble imagining an effective public transit system that would fit my work schedule.

I live about 10 miles, 20-30 minutes, from work. Biking to work would add about 3 hours to my daily commute, so that's not an option.

My work schedule has inconsistent hours, I get out between 4:30 and 6:30. If I have to wait 30 to 60 minutes for a bus, and then have a 40 minute ride home due to all the extra stops, I'm going to want to drive until it's just not affordable. Moreso on days when I work to 8:00pm: I'm not waiting on a slow bus to get home at 9:30. I'll drive so I can get home at 8:25.

If I go into the office on the weekend? My experience is that public transit is even less frequent. The two week stint every year or two when I'm working noon 'til 2 am -- is public transit going to be in service at that hour?

And I have to drive cross town to work at different buildings. Is my company expected to have company shuttles for the various meetings?

Maybe I'm unusual, but public transit doesn't solve the transportation problem without a drastic change in professional work habits. I would simply need to be able to work from home on a regular basis. The corporate culture would have to shift from stay-til-its done to a schedule-bows-to-transportation attitude. And the company would have to spend a fortune to consolidate facilities, or have intra-office shuttle system.

 

[ChristopherDAC]

I think any reasonable definition of "an effective public transit system" would exclude waiting 30 to 60 minutes for a bus. I live in Fort Worth, Texas, which has one of the worst public transit systems in the country (neighbouring Arlington is the largest city in the world without public transit of any kind), & that is the frequency of the buses here (nominally every 30 minutes, but several of the routes alternate on two branches). Normal intervals for bus systems are between 5 and 20 minutes.

 

[DaveF]

I used the University buses in grad school. They had about a 30 minute rotation during the day; after 6pm it was an hour or more, with nothing past 11-ish. During the winter, when working late on campus, I had to catch that 8:15 bus, because the next one was over an hour later. And the route to my apartment -- a 7 minute car drive -- took 30+ minutes on the night bus.

That's my experience with a bus transit system. Great when you're an impoverished student and can't afford $200 parking fees. Unacceptable if you're salaried professional.

Mass transit may be required in the future. But it's going to take an immense public investment to create such a far-reaching and efficient travel system. And it requires substantial corporate culture changes for "professionals" who are expected to put in the hours to get the job done, and work in an on-site, team-oriented field that is nearly antithetical with telecommuting.

It would be great to not have to worry about driving and commensurate car maintenance. And to have a job that accepted schedule slips so employees could catch the 5pm bus ride home. But I can't imagine such changes happening.

What I've seen, from a friend in Boston, is that you spend a lot of money on cabs so you can work odd hours and still get home on your own schedule.

 

[Brian Perry]

Part of the solution, though, is slowing/stopping the urban sprawl and enticing people to move closer to the population centers. This applies not only to transportation, but also to improving infrastructure for water and other utilities.

 

[Philip Hamm]

BIG part of the solution! More good news. The trends are in that direction, again, due largely to market forces. A friend of mind forwarded an article in the Wall Street Journal on people moving back to city centers. Also, when we do build, build smart, as exemplified by the architectural movement New Urbanism. I love my new urbanist neighborhood.

Unfortunately you then have the problems of "gentrification" in the urban areas.

Public transportation where I am is so bad it makes me ashamed. The capital of one of the most important countries on the planet and we don't even have light rail to the international airport 30 miles out of town. And the proposed solution, running the subway out to about 2 miles past the airport, is ridiculous. It will take 2 hours to get to the city on a subway with all those stops. It should be regional rail, and it should go well past the airport. So you get on at the airport and get off in the city 25 minutes later. Like virtually every other major city in the First World with an airport that far out.

When I lived in Philadelphia I was amazed at how fantastic the regional light rail was in that area. There's no reason we can't have that in more cities. The "regional" rail around DC is better than nothing, but is pretty weak.

 

[DaveF]

Living in the city only helps if your job is also in the city and you never change jobs to a location farther away. To make this effective, we also have to bring all jobs to the city. And also make it cheaper to move if your job moves so you can remove within easy travel of work.

We also have to make urban living attractive. City living to me means old houses, lower efficiency, lots of home repair, outdated wiring, small rooms, and no yard, bad parking and maybe no garage. Bringing people back to the city also requires major renovation of old houses and/or a dramatic shift in aesthetics.

All of this can be done, perhaps, but the calls to embrace public transit and stop suburban sprawl are huge social changes and require monstrous infrastructure changes.

I still wonder if it's easier to find an alternate energy source that allows the culture of individual driving to continue.

 

[Bryan X]

That sounds about right, Dave. I'm not saying keeping a pace of 20mph for 10 miles is impossible, but I don't think I could do it. Nor do I think the average person could. 45 minutes sounds like a good pace for 10 miles (about 13-14mph). And even at that pace, I'd need a shower after that too!

 

[DaveF]

20mph on a road bike on level ground is not hard. But with the big hills on the first part of the ride, and the bad root breakthrough on the bike path that winds the detour (since I can't ride the freeway ), it would be probably a 15mph average over the 15 mile route, for a 45 to 60 minute ride.

I wish I could bike it, but with the demands of life, the work schedule, the real dangers of biking along busy roads, the hassle of inclement weather, packing a change of clothes every day and showering at work, this is just not an option for me.

In the interim, I'm hoping plug-in electric cars prove efficient and affordable. The planned 40 mile charge for the Chevrolet Volt would be a perfect fit for my commute. And as suggested, this shifts travel energy to electricity, freeing petroleum for other uses.

 

[Don Solosan]

""Peak Oil" doomer nutcases"

Ha! Denial...

1. Denial. "Peak oil? Baloney! There's lots of oil left. No worries, mate."

2. Anger. "It's the damn ________'s (oil companies, governments, OPEC, etc.) fault
that oil prices are going up. They're gouging us. The bastards!"

3. Bargaining. "But what about new oil discovery technologies? What about biofuels?
I can keep my SUV, right? Someone, or some new discovery will save us ...right?"

4. Depression. "Damn... no renewable energy source is as energy dense as oil, or quickly
scalable... Holy crap. We are _________ (in for a rough ride, doomed, etc.)"

5. Acceptance. "Ok, even if we are in for a rough ride, what I can do? What can I ask
my government representatives to do? How can I make a difference? How can I
prepare? How can we support research into potential technological breakthroughs?"

from Evolutionary psychology and Peak Oil


" ...global oil supply (is peaking) lower and sooner than had been contemplated earlier."
-- Allan Greenspan
Wall Street Journal, 12/15/2007
Free Preview - WSJ.com


Guess someone didn't get the memo.

 

[Philip Hamm]

Not denial. Nutcases.

Peak Oil is real. The "Peak Oil" doomsday cult is nutty.

 

[Don Solosan]

So... you think we're going to slowly lose our main energy source with nothing on the horizon to take its place... and everything's going to be fine?




edit: fixed typo

 

[DaveF]

I think Phillip's point is that we'll manage our way through it -- just as we have with the other civilization-destroying threats that were supposed to have crushed us by now. We were supposed to have run out of food long by now -- Malthusian population theory or some such? We were heading into a period Global Cooling in the early 90s that threatened mankind. Now we're gong to be destroyed by Global Warming. And lack of petrol.

Not that we'll magically fix it; no shoemaker's elves to show up overnight and mend our problems. But so far, through research, necessity, and greed we've managed to work past the problems that were going to be our doom. Presumably, we'll get past Peak Oil and the doomsayers can merrily find some other worry to bang a gong about.