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Oscar Watch 2005 - pre-awards discussion (1 Viewer)

ChristopherBlig

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I think Crash will be in contention but not in Best Picture...

I feel History of Violence has a better chance at Best Picture.

It's gonna be a tough year as far as I can see...the big question is come December through February is going to determine who the survivors will be

I still feel that Mickey Rourke deserves a Best Supporting Actor nod for Sin City..he was that good and with the supporting actor performances being mixed bag in other big movies, his should be remembered..there's only one Marv and he deserves not to be forgotten
 

ChristopherBlig

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Apr 17, 2003
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I think Crash will be in contention but not in Best Picture...

I feel History of Violence has a better chance at Best Picture.

It's gonna be a tough year as far as I can see...the big question is come December through February is going to determine who the survivors will be

I still feel that Mickey Rourke deserves a Best Supporting Actor nod for Sin City..he was that good and with the supporting actor performances being mixed bag in other big movies, his should be remembered..there's only one Marv and he deserves not to be forgotten
 

Nathan V

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Mickey Rourke and Cinderella are not going to get big nominations. Crash is not going to be nominated for Best Picture.

Jose, I'm glad you liked Lord of War. I loved it, and was very disappointed by its stateside reception.

FYI for those who don't know, King Kong will likely have a 3 hour runtime. I don't what know what this means as far as awards go.

I am beyond disappointed with that Jarhead news. I thought it was going to dominate. i think it looks incredible, very "new." Then again, I loved Road to Perdition, so what do I know.

Quentin, what did Clooney "go through" on Syriana? I'm not familiar with this.

Adam, you're right, I just confirmed the the Walk the Line trailer I saw is not new. Regardless, it looks terrific. Pheonix looks phenomenal. Can't wait to catch this one.

Regards,
Nathan
 

Adam_S

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I guess in retrospect it's logical to assume Jarhead would get bad reviews. It appears to be more in the vein of Fight Club than Platoon.
 

Amy Mormino

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Some early official reviews have been coming in for Jarhead (Variety, Hollywood Reporter) and I would say it is all but out of contention for the major nominations. The Reporter calls it a movie that "feels empty and tentative". It could get a cult audience, but likely not more.

I'd like Mickey Rourke to be considered as Best Supporting Actor also. His work was really excellent, but it just doesn't seem to have gotten the right buzz. For that matter, going with big films, I'd even throw in Ian McDiarmid, who stole Revenge of the Sith as Palpatine.
 

ZacharyTait

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Wouldn't it be great if Batman Begins could score nominations in the major categories?

It would be cool to see it nominated for Picture, Director, Actor (Bale), and Supporting Actor (Caine).

I'm sure it'll be nominated in the tech categories, specifically sound and VFX, and maybe cinematography and editing, but it would be freaking sweet it if it could break through to the prestigious categories.

My guess is that if one film that is both popular with the critics and audinces that'll reap nominations is King Kong.

Jeff Wells doesn't really care for Jarhead as well.

My Best Picture predictions:

Munich
Walk the Line
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
The New World
 

Adam_S

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Spiderman was the highest grossing film to not recieve a best picture nomination when it came out, so I doubt Batman will get the attention it deserves either.

my predictions for best picture for now stand as:

Munich
Walk the Line
Mrs Henderson Presents
Narnia
The Producers


Narnia is the most unlikely but hey, if it connects, it connects big, and I like keeping a wild card in. the trailer on Mrs Henderson and the producers combined with the buzz convinced me those films can and probably will make the academy demographic for a nomination. Plus Henderson has Weinstein.
 

Jose Martinez

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So is Clint Eastwood working on anything lately that has a possibility of being released before the end of this year? If I recall, no one was talking about Million Dollar Baby at this point last year.
 

Ray H

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Maybe he'll surprise us and whip out both of his WWII epics next month. :D
 

Joe Hsu

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With Oscar season nearly upon us, I'm going to enjoy keeping up.

That said, I was able to catch "Capote" yesterday and thus far into the year, Hoffman's performance absolutely sets him apart from anyone else. I haven't done a great job on seeing all the smaller indie films, but a decent one...but he should at least get a nom.
 

Quentin

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Things are starting to come together. Here is my new list:

Munich
Walk The Line
Capote/Brokeback Mountain (one of these will be the token 'indie' nom)
The Producers/Mrs. Henderson (one of these will be the 'feel good' nominee)
New World/Memoirs of a Geisha (one of these will be the 'epic' nominee)

Now, it is possible that two of any of my 'token' categories is nominated, thus booting one of the other categories.

The reason I do not include Narnia is because of two factors: 1) the LotR comparison, and 2) the anti-Christian press already buzzing around it. Of course, if someone is already trying to sink it, that could mean it is really, really good.
 

Adam_S

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Narnia is great, but I don't think it can make it, not because of the christian connection but because it stars kids.

I'm not yet discounting the cathartic power of the King Kong story, of course if the film is bloated and overdone then its out, but it has the sort of story that can really leave an audience affected at the end. I don't think it's a frontrunner, but if the film is good enough...

Otherwise those looke like a pretty good top eight, for now Quentin.
 

Adam_S

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Right on schedule with Jarhead comes the trailers for Munich and King Kong

MCN pointed out Tom O'Neill is calling King Kong to score an oscar nomination and eventual win for best picture. Most pundits have discounted the film as simple popcorn fare, unlikely to repeat the awards success of Tolkien's Lord of the Rings. O'Neill's rationalization is that the movie will be loud and sound editors will vote it for that award and then best picture as well, and so on and such like through all the techie/craft awards and score a nomination. This is possible, but a stronger argument could be made for the cathartic power inherent in the story impacting voters. And it could be indulgent and overlong, like many dream-projects of other famous directors. And the field in all categories is extraordinarily crowded and competitive this year. King Kong can't swing in alone as the highly polished big epic feeling film. It has to go against Brokeback Mountain (sweeping vistas, powerful PC drama-bait), New World (sweeping vistas, drama-bait, terrence malick, 70mm), and Geisha (sweeping vistas, traumatized-ethnic-women-bait) and other major films that are just as competitive in the technical categories as King Kong (Mrs. Henderson, Walk the line, Narnia, Producers, Capote, Syriana, Batman, Star Wars, Harry Potter).

Kong has a very tall building to climb to score a best picture nomination, but if the press gets rolling in its favor, and some films like New World, Mountain, Geisha, Narnia, Henderson & Capote fail to connect strongly with the Academy demographic then it is a possibility.

Adam
 

Quentin

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Ultimately, I can't see voters forgiving Jackson for turning a 100 minute classic into a 200 minute tanker. Unless he pulls off a miracle (I can't fathom how he extends the length that far without terrible bloating), he doesn't reach that pinnacle.

EDIT: 200 minute. Thanks for the heads up, Mattias!
 

Mattias Stridsman

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Making a 300 (?!) minute remake out of the lean 100 minute original would be really stupid. Making a 180 minute film with more developed characters and intricate relationships out of the material found in the original doesn't sound that stupid to me though. And I doubt Univeral would release a bloated version and risc everything, so I'm not too worried.
 

Adam_S

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New York Times holidays Special The LA Times one should be up soon (it's also tomorrow), and I'll post a link to that as well.
I like their december/january release calender

The right sidebar has some multimedia type material, a basic audio overview to slide-show by Manola Dargis, but the slide for Memoirs of a Geisha should show why the film is likely to be very competitive in cinematography, even if it crashes. Supposedly Anthony Minghella recorded a voiceover recently for the film, and with that addition it has been testing much better, so who knows...

I caught a screening of Pride and Prejudice, solid film, but not competitive in really any category.

Poland's latest oscar column and charts are up. He's started to put Felicity Huffman's work in TransAmerica as on the rise, this is about the timeframe we saw work like Monster start to garner attention, so this may be a performance to watch.
 

Kyle_D

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My predictions for best picture:

Munich
Walk the Line
Mrs Henderson Presents (in on the Weinstein factor)
The Producers
Brokeback Mountain (PC, well-liked, and Focus NEEDS award support to get straight-America into the theaters)

Kong may replace Mrs Henderson if it ends up some sort of masterpiece AND its box office is strong enough to pull the industry out of the perceived slump. Basically, unless it's close to a Titanic-size success, it's won't be seen as anything more than Peter Jackson's victory lap.

I don't think Narnia has anything going for it Oscar-wise. Even if it turns out great, the production was a pretty blatant cash-in on the recent Lord of the Rings/Harry Potter epic fantasy adaptation craze. The producers didn't really need to take the giant risks with it that Hollywood likes to reward and it's not an auteurist film. It'll do nice box office, but I can't see it getting nominated in anything outside of technical categories. The religious associations won't sit well with secular Hollywood voters.

Interestingly, I don't think there has been a big indie this year to really generate enough steam to get in on the BP race. Capote looked like it could have done it, but Sony had their opportunity to go wide with the release a few weeks ago and didn't take it. PSH is a (deserving) lock for best actor, but other than that, I don't know.
 

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