Oscar season begins (1 Viewer)

[Craig S]

Personally I think the more interesting debates center around the other contenders because that field still feels more wide open.

No doubt here. I always felt RotK was a lock for a BP nom unless Jackson seriously dropped the ball. After that little 2 1/2 minute tidbit NL dropped on us this past weekend the chances of that happening seem impossibly remote. The race is for the other four slots.

Re: City Of God. I'm with Seth in that this one will likely make my top 5 for the year (and wil definitely be in my Top 10), but as far as Oscar goes... no one is talking about it. I'm not hopeful for its chances at all.

So what does everyone think about Poland's #1 seed in the Supporting Actor category? I know in the LotR threads many of us have commented on the importance of Sam in RotK and the potential for Astin to rise above the pack, but this is the first time I've seen the mention from an industry writer.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Craig,
I think that's foreknowledge of the story. Poland knows that the character wins the award as often as the actor. I doubt he knows much more than we do. Acting categories before seeing of them are a crap shoot. Good to see Sam get the recognition. I imagine Sean will do just fine.

Won't know until we see it...and the competitors.

Take care,
Chuck

 

[Chris]

Amen to that. The only question is which song?? There are several strong contenders. You could go with "Eat At Joe's", "Never Did No Wanderin'", or "Kiss At The End of the Rainbow". I have to say, however, that I would love to see the entire cast perform the title song, with its hilarious final line, during the worldwide Oscar broadcast!!

Yeah, I think you'd have to put the set piece number (A Mighty Wind) as the number to be nominated. But the studio should push for a nod. In an empty field this year, with no other real musicals out there, this thing should get a nod.

 

[Craig S]

Time to resurrect the thread again. Things have changed.

The big news: The Alamo is out, having been moved to an April 2004 release. The given reason is to give time for director John Lee Hancock to "finish" the film.

There are rave first reviews for two other contenders this morning. Jeffrey Wells Link Removed - he says it's Peter Weir's best film since Witness. And Dave Poland is equally thrilled with The Missing, saying it's Ron Howard's best ever.

Wells is also reporting negative buzz for the Julia Roberts vehicle Mona Lisa Smile, saying its studio will not be doing a major Oscar push for the film.

Poland has also been talking more lately about In America, which he has seen four times!! This one still feels like this year's The Pianist to me, and I expect it to be in the hunt by year's end.

Mystic River, despite some early great reviews, seems to have lost momentum. There's been a fair amount of backlash from both critics and viewers (see the HTF discussion thread). It will get acting noms, but I don't think it's a serious BP contender. Same goes for Lost In Translation, which I don't think ever picked up enough traction to be a major contender. It's best chance is a Best Actor nod for Bill Murray.

If I'm guessing today (and I am), I see 8 pictures in contention for Best Picture. The first three seem like the front runners:

The Lord Of The Rings: The Return of The King
Cold Mountain
In America

And the last two slots will come from the following five (in order of likelyhood):

Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
The Last Samurai
The Missing
House Of Sand And Fog
Big Fish

The only certainty is that all of this will probably change again.

 

[Seth Paxton]

Gee, and here I was saying that it was awfully fishy that Ron left the Alamo project for the Missing project.

Let's just say that I'm in no way surprised to see Alamo "demoted" to non-Oscar contender status (unless you read something else into the April, pre-summer even, release date). Time to finish is fine, but you still pick the best release spots for your stronger films. If anything they would hold it to mid-summer so it could run as a summer contender for next year (a year without LOTR even).


I agree with your summation Craig, though I've started to wonder if Nemo can find some of its own push despite the animation category.


The film most likely to have a false surge back into contention now seems to be Mystic River. If it slips some acting noms into places like the Globes or the Guild, which many weaker films often due (Life as a House anyone), it could create a false sense of it being back in contention.

I haven't seen the film to make my own judgement about its quality, but the reviews its getting signal that the film is not regarded as an Oscar contender.


I really like M&C chances this Oscar season right now. It sure sounds and looks like it could be a top contender, knowing Weir's talent and story interests. I assume the story is in line with the types of stories he does, and the production values look to be top notch (eliminating any of the difficult high-art backlash that might occur).

 

[Brian W.]

The big news: The Alamo is out, having been moved to an April 2004 release. The given reason is to give time for director John Lee Hancock to "finish" the film

Wow. That does change things a bit.

Without having seen any of them, I think ROTK, Cold Mountain, and Master & Commander are locks. I agree that ROTK is NOT a lock to WIN best picture. In fact, I have a funny feeling that PJ may win for director and the picture will lose.

I have seen Thirteen, and as I've been saying for three months, Holly Hunter is a lock for a supt. actress nom.

 

[Seth Paxton]

I should have mentioned that I can see a definite backlash against ROTK if the feeling exists that it has been preordained to win already. Nobody likes being told what to vote for or to like.

Of course if the film is extremely strong it would wash away all those sentiments. And its not like backlash against being the "sure thing" kept GONY from getting a BP nom, and in fact it did rather well with Oscar noms.

 

[Vickie_M]

Of course if the film is extremely strong it would wash away all those sentiments. And its not like backlash against being the "sure thing" kept GONY from getting a BP nom, and in fact it did rather well with Oscar noms.

Right again. I think the deal was that GONY wasn't strong enough (IMO, I think it was edited too much, it should have been longer) so people could not vote for it and feel ok about it. If ROTK is as mind-blowing as I think it will be, I can't see how anyone could backlash against it with a clear conscience.


Nobody mentioned that Billy Crystal is going to be back this year? Shoot. I really like Steve Martin.

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

Looks like the Human Stain is losing steam. After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival with mixed reviews, it doesn't appear the Miramax is putting in the muscle behind it.

~Edwin

 

[Lou Sytsma]

My take on Wells review of Master and Commander doesn't signify any Oscar vibes. His reviews states the film will be a tough sell and plays on the fact that he grew up with a love of sailing. M&C plays like a day in the life of a 18th century sailing ship - fine for history classes but not much for pulling in audiences, with no interest in sailing, but who want to see a good story.

Poland's review of The Missing also leaves the impression of a solid film but not an outstanding one. His focus with this one is on Ron Howard who seems poised to move up a level or two in his directing skills. This maybe his transitional film.

So we are going to be treated to 2 good but not outstanding or Oscar worthy films.

Yes I read too that during the Toronto Film Festival that The Human Stain was out of the running. Seems Kidman and Hopkins are both miscast.

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

Besides, it appears that Miramax is going to back Nicole Kidman in Cold Mountain than in Human Stain.

~Edwin

 

[Nathan V]

Looks like Human Stain is this year's The Shipping News.

here's hoping City of God gets some steam going soon! It's been playing in New york sporadically for months, according to what I've heard. (although that doesn't help a bit, they're showing it on the wrong side of the freakin' country).

ROTK WILL get a boatload of noms. No question about it. Remember that the competition isn't as heavy this year- no spielberg, no scorsese, no soderbergh, lynch, mann, stone, etc etc. This is Pete's best chance.

 

[Bill J]

I have a feeling that The Alamo would not have been a serious contender anyway. It is very possible that it could turn out to be another Pearl Harbor.

 

[ThomasC]

I have a feeling that The Alamo would not have been a serious contender anyway. It is very possible that it could turn out to be another Pearl Harbor.

I ***REALLY*** don't think that's going to be the case. The love story, if there is going to be any, is definitely not going to take up as much time as it did in Pearl Harbor.

 

[Bill J]

I sure hope you're right.

In my opinion the love story was one of the many flaws of the film, but if The Alamo lacks a diluted portrayal of history, weak dialogue, and one dimensional characters it should be a successful film. But the trailer and early reviews of test screenings lead me to think otherwise.

 

[Patrick Larkin]

Am I the only one who thinks Nicole Kidman is becoming totally over exposed? I'm at the point where an otherwise good looking movie is ruined by her presence (and the equally overexposed Renee Zelwegger). Don't get me wrong, I think she's a decent actress but she's in EVERY MOVIE. Cold Mountain looks like it will be an outstanding movie but unfortunately she's in it. Are Nicole and Renee the ONLY actresses in hollywood at the moment? :rolleyes

From just a cursory look around, Cold Mountain seems to be the biggest competition for Return of the King. I'm tending to lean toward ROTK not getting the nod. I just feel that the LOTR audience is not the Academy voters. If it was, then FOTR would have beaten the dreadful "made-for-TV" A Beautiful Mind.

Big Fish has absolutely NO shot whatsoever of even a nomination. I can't see a film that most people will shrug off as "one of those weird movies" getting a nomination. I'll be the first in line but remember, these voters are usually clueless. I also can't see a Samurai movie wooing the Academy either. And In America looks promising but its a longshot.

So, yeah, Cold Mountain. HUGE historical epic with big names. I'm going with it for now.

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

By moving The Alamo to April 2004, maybe Disney is sending a message that this was not a big Oscar contender after all and would rather like it to do better at the box office than get lost at the alrealdy cowded holiday season.

~Edwin

 

[Craig S]

Interesting thoughts.

Looks like the Human Stain is losing steam. After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival with mixed reviews, it doesn't appear the Miramax is putting in the muscle behind it.

Yeah, THS is pretty much out of it. Another early contender that didn't come out of Toronto with needed momentum is 21 Grams. I read some ecstatic reviews, and some negative reviews, but all agreed that the film is probably too somber for Oscar. Sean Penn was praised, however. I think one of the few sure things we can say at this point is that Sean Penn WILL get nominated, but whether it's for 21 Grams or Mystic River remains to be seen. I also think he has a very good chance (perhaps the best he will ever have) of winning.

 

[Craig S]

Back in August, on the first page of this thread, I wrote:

The best studio film released thus far is Finding Nemo. As all of you point out, it probably has no chance at BP. It would seem a lock for Best Animated Feature, but that's only if that category is active this year. There need to be 7 eligible animated features released to activate the category. So far we have Nemo, Rugrats Go Wild, Jungle Book 2, Sinbad, and Disney's Brother Bear is coming. I hope I'm missing two other eligible animated films that have been released or are coming...

So I'm still wondering about this. Are there going to be enough animated films released this year to activate the category and give FN a much-deserved Oscar? Will Looney Tunes: Back In Action count??

 

[Craig S]

To answer my own question about LT:BiA, from the official Academy rules:

An animated feature film is defined as a motion picture of at least 70 minutes in running time with a significant number of the major characters animated, and in which animation figures in no less than 75% of the picture’s running time.

So I guess it's possible that LT:BiA will be eligible, but at this point we don't know.

Also, I was wrong about one thing - 8 films, not 7, are needed to activate the category. And, the deadline for submitting entries as Best Animated Feature is only days away - November 3.

It is VERY possible that there won't be a Best Animated Feature award this year. Which may explain Disney's BP push for Finding Nemo, which is being discussed in another thread:

http://www.hometheaterforum.com/htfo...hreadid=166181