OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT... (1 Viewer)

[Terrell]

Well, Lilo & Stitch looks to be very good. But I don't see it being that successful. I'd say 200 million max. But my prediction is 170 million, which is still a fantastic haul.

 

[Paul Jenkins]

Not quite enough to hit $400M, due to the TPM backlash (unless, of course, Jar Jar suffers a hideously painful death, in which case we're talking Titanic numbers).

good god that was funny

 

[Sean Oneil]

good god that was funny

The funny thing is, He's Right about that!

 

[Paul W]

The first one had the benefit of being based on arguably the most famous trilogy of books ever made.

Huh?
All three movies are based on the same famous trilogy. Maybe I am mis-understanding your point. I agree that the Two Towers is an often maligned middle book of the trilogy (not being exciting as the FOTR or ROTK), but I think it has the potential to be sculpted into some serious coolness by PJ.
I have the feeling that, if PJ does a really good job here, some of the folks that were disappointed with FOTR will be happy with TTT and therefore, it will reach the same numbers as FOTR or surpass it slightly.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Paul,
I had the same response. Both films have that same benefit. I do think TTT will make a little less than FOTR, because it's a sequel. But I also expect it to be of similar quality to FOTR with one HUGE DRAW. The Helm's Deep battle will draw moviegoers in ALL ON IT'S OWN. I believe that this will do quite a bit of business, and may even be helped by a good summer SW run (? - if you think about that, it makes sense).
I think Lilo and Stitch will do quite well, but I never predict Disney animated film numbers...I always get burned :frowning:
Take care,
Chuck

 

[Win Joy Jr]

The Good (200 mil +)
LOTR: TTT: Same demographic as the first. With the DVD release of FotR, may lesson repeated viewings. 400 Mil An interesting point. I still have not seen FotR.

AOTC: People keep mentioning the lessor hype for this one when compared to TPM. I bet that even George knows he has a much better movie this time around. He is hoping for a lot of positive reviews and good word of mouth. 375 Mil

HP and the COS: People forget the dynamic of our society when the first one was released. We were still overcoming the shock of 9/11. Will do well, but not as big of a splash as the first. 300 Mil

Spiderman: Fanbase will open this big. Mainstream may wait to see what the reviewers say. One potential turn-off, the use of CGI. Put down the flame guns and hear me out. People will accept CGI for things that they cannot do. But the use of CGI when Spiderman takes off the mask just looks too fake. It was the one item that I remember about the trailer. It has a great cast, but we shall see. 250 Mil

Ice Age: Will find a second set of legs, and a second release, if the summer fare begins to flame out. I cannot put a total on it, since I do not know what it has made so far.

The "Ho-Hum" (100 – 200Mil)
Minority Report: Except for us, who knows anything about this movie? Spielberg & Cruise names may not generate any positive buzz. Remember, Spielberg’s A.I. left a lot of people going "Huh?" Only the faithful know that Spielberg made A.I. in Kubrik’s vision. Depends on the battlefield when it opens. 150Mil

AP: Goldmember: Mediocre numbers. Way too long since the last one. Issue about the name will not generate interest. 150 Mil

Bond 20: Depends on the advanced word-of-mouth. 175 Mil

Star Trek X: Early word is good, but I do not believe the franchise can pull in from outside the fan base. 100 Mil

And now, the ones who will crash and burn (< 100 Mil)…
The Scorpion King: People are not interested in WWF turned actors. Only exception to that rule would be if Chyna is cast as the female terminator in T3… < 45Mil

Men In Black II: 5 years since the original? I do not remember what sort of competition the first one had. < 65Mil

Sum of all Fears: Third casting of the lead character. Even with TC blessing it himself, this will bomb, and bomb big. Also been in the can for a while… < 55Mil

Lilo & Stich: This one will set the animation studio back 10 years, and make the mouse make nice with Pixar. Everytime I saw the trailer (and I cannot tell you the last time I saw it on), my initial reaction is that Disney is doing "Heavy Metal". AS a parent, there is nothing that is making me WANT to take the kids to se Lilo & Stich. 50 Mil. Interesting note, I just checked the Disney website, and I cannot find any references to the flick…

Scooby – Doo: Gone after the second week. 25 Mil

Overall, Even with Lord of the Rings, Star Wars, and Harry Potter, it will be a lackluster year. I still think people will be wanting to spend their entertainment dollars in a home setting. Summer travel will be down. One strong point, people are / will be working a little more out of debt. The Recovery will be a slow one. Price of going to the movies is getting obscene, and major league sports will feel the pain of pricing themselves out of a fan base.
Expect to see sales of better TVs, DVD players, software, and satellite systems to rise, as people will want to settle more into their homes and have entertainment delivered to them along with a pizza and soda.

 

[Terrell]

I have to disagree with you on two of your projections. TTT isn't gonna make 400 million. Stranger things have happened, but I don't see a sequel making 100 million more than the original.

And Lilo &Stitch for all intents and purposes, from early word is that it's gonna be a very good film. One of Disney's best in years. It'll certainly make more than your prediction. It'll at least break 90 million at least. I'm predicting anywhere betweem 150-170 million. It's certainly a change, which is a good thing since so many here complain of Disney releasing similar animated films one after another. As for the hard rock, that's probably just for the trailer. This film is not gonna have hard rock all throughout the soundtrack.

As for your duds, I really have no idea what they'll make. So I can't argue there. As for AOTC, we've predicted the same thing on that one. So I agree one that point.It's possible that TTT and AOTC can make more than theie predeccesors, but it's not going to be by a hundred million dollars.

 

[Paul W]

I find myself agreeing with Terrell on these points. However, I think MIB might do better if people get out to see other movies besides AOTC and Spidey.

 

[Sean Oneil]

Do you guys really think that the Scorpion King will completely tank? I would not be at all shocked to see it break 100 million. There seems to be an inordinate percentage of Rock haters on this forum, but he seems to be pretty well liked everywhere else. It might be entertaining... heck, the best parts of 'The Mummy Returns' were the battles in the beginning with The Rock in them. I never understood why they felt the need to do that gawd-aweful CGI scorpion king at the end of the film instead of just using The Rock's character from the beginning of the film?

Anyway, I'll guess $150 million for 'The Scorpion King'.

 

[Terrell]

Well, for one thing casual movie fans don't give one iota about The Rock. Based on what I've seen, there have been TV movies that look like they had a higher production. Also, there is no one person in this film that can draw people in to see this film. And Rock is fine as long as he doesn't open his mouth. Now he's a great entertainer in wrestling, but he's certainly not an actor. Arnold looks like Al Pacino when compared to Rock. Rock as a wrestler......good. Rock as an actor........ugh. I will say this. The only chance this film has is if people are fooled into thinking this is a sequel to The Mummy Returns. I only expect hardcore Rock fans will see this one.
Well, you asked Sean. Sorry.:frowning:

 

[Malcolm R]

The only chance this film has is if people are fooled into thinking this is a sequel to The Mummy Returns.

That's where the film will find it's success. I know my Mom is all excited to see "The Scorpion King" because she LOVED the two Mummy movies. She doesn't give a toss about the Rock, but expects another enjoyable film similar to "Mummy."
Has the Rock done any acting before (other than MR)? I don't recall so I can't judge his acting ability. I know he was on SNL and was better than most of their actor hosts (he can sing pretty well, too).

 

[Terrell]

Well, people feel differently. But considering he couldn't even yell convincingly as a warrior in the Mummy Returns, and from the trailers, no, I don't think he can act worth a toot. You may be right about people thinking it's a sequel. But I'm gonna have to stick by my prediction of a bomb. I think critics will rip it to pieces. I think they'll pan the Rock. And I think word of mouth will be bad. But I've been wrong before. It wouldn't shock me if it did okay.

 

[John Thomas]

Getting back to the thread's title: I bid $1. I think you've all overbid.

 

[Sean Oneil]

Yes, I did ask Terell. Thanks for the input. There were some choice quotes in there, like how Rock makes Schwarzenegger look like Pacino -LOL
I guess we will see soon enough

 

[Terrell]

Well, maybe I was a tad harsh. I'm just not impressed by Rock the Actor. But I could be completely wrong. It may do a lot better than I've anticipated.
Okay John, what have we overbid on?

 

[Craig S]

I'm just not impressed by Rock the Actor.

Although I think it's premature to judge the Rock's acting abilities based on a trailer, I'd like to point out that for a movie like TSK, he doesn't HAVE to be an "actor". He needs to have an imposing & physical screen presence. This is what got Schwarzeneggar through his classic films such as Conan & Terminator. I'm not suggesting TSK is going to be in the league of those 2, but it does look to me like the Rock has the screen presence to carry the film. Of course, none of us will know for sure until next week.
I don't think TSK will be as big as either of the Mummy films. but it will break $100 million without too much trouble. I predict it'll end up at about $130-$140 million.

 

[Larry Sutliff]

I think we are really over-estimating TTT

At the risk of being flamed, I agree with Rhett. Very few sequels do as well as the original film; that's why I predicted 250 million for TTT. It will be a big hit, and maybe I will be proven wrong, but I just don't see this film making more than the original. If SPIDERMAN is good it may be the summers surprise hit, because people like to see something different rather than a sequel. I still remember when PREMIERE magazine was predicting in 1989 that GHOSTBUSTERS II would be the hit of the summer(because of the first films popularity) and that BATMAN would rank third(behind GB II and LAST CRUSADE). We all remember how accurate that prediction was!

I think AOTC will be number one but I wouldn't be surprised if SPIDERMAN ended up being a very close second.

 

[Terrell]

Well, we may have to disagree Craig. Normally you'd be right. I really can't judge his performance frm the trailers. As for carrying the film, since he's in the lead role, he has to act at least a little bit.

On a different topic, I'm revising mt AOTC prediction down to 350 million.

 

[Matt Stone]

Even if The Rock utterly kicks ass in the film...I don't think it will matter much due to the material. "I've come for the woman...and your head." I mean, who the hell writes this crap.

As for how much money it will make...my guess is not much. Every time I've been at a movie when the Scorpion King trailer was screened, a large portion of the audience laughed...definitely not a good sign for the box office potential.

 

[Terrell]

Well, I agree and disagree with Matt. I agree the film won't do good. I agree most people won't see this film. But I don't necessarily agree about the dialogue. No, the dialogue is not the greatest. But it seems to have become popular to criticize dialogue. Not all movies need to have Shakespearean dialogue. Star Wars has for the most part had simple, yet effect dialogue. It's never been the most complicated dialogue in the world. But it's all in the delivery. There are certain movies that don't have to have the greatest dialogue in movie history. So I don't think dialogue will be the problem. This movie has far more problems than it's writing, at least as I see it.

But I agree on all other counts.