OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT... (2 Viewers)

[Matt Pelham]

MIB II - $165 million - Big opening weekend (maybe) but MIB was not a "gigantic blockbuster" and I just don't see this as being "huge"

Wow, last time I checked MIB had an opening weekend of $50 million and a 5-day total of $85 million. It also went on to make $250 million in the U.S. alone and I think was the biggest movie of 97.

The one common thing I see on this thread is the almost total exclusion of MIB II from any predictions. I think if MIB 2 only does the business the first one did it will be a mega-blockbuster. Don't forget about this one!!!

 

[Terrell]

Wow Paul! Only 240 million, almost a full 200 million less than the original, and TTT to do 125 million better than the original. Interesting predictions though.
Stranger things have happened though.

 

[Paul Jenkins]

Terrell,
Hey, like I said, I'm no good at predictions!! Personally I think guessing at numbers is next to impossible unless you know how good the movie is on a number of different levels. AOTC has the potential to be really huge on a number of different levels, and just as much potential to suck in those same areas enough where people who aren't the die-hard fans will be turned off. AOTC has romance, action and a great story, at least according to the script. But if fighting Yoda looks like something from Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, if Anakin and Padme's romance looks cheesy, and/or the story is as flat at TPM to most people (read, reviewers...), I see it not getting past the $250 mark.
That said, it will probably be awesome, the love story will be touching, and the reviewers will hail it as the best film ever. Then it might top $400

 

[Terrell]

Just trying to generate some discussion in here Paul. As for Predictions, neither am I. I always seem to over predict. I tried to scale mine down in this thread.

the reviewers will hail it as the best film ever

I'm not sure about that, however. That's a little too lofty. Of course, everything's subjective.

As for Yoda, I don't know how much stock you put in Harry Knowles, and neither do I, but he said it looks amazing. But his opinion may differ.

 

[Paul Jenkins]

Not much stock in Harry, his reviews are too off the wall for me, basically one guy saying how he felt about the movie, I expect a bit more intelligence in a review than what he seems to portray..

 

[Terrell]

I didn't really mean his entire review. I just meant as a Star Wars fan, he said the Yoda footage looked amazing. I don't put much stock in him or his site. But I believed that if the Yoda footage looked bad, or even horrible, he probably would have said so. I personally believe Lucas and ILM will make it look great. If nothing else, this film will look exceptional in all the battle scenes and fight scenes, as well as other visuals. Lucas has that down pat. Let's just hope that the characters have more life, and the story is engaging.
I personally think it's gonna be great. www.darkhorizon.com gave a very positive review of the script. So did Moriarty at AICN, who is a far better writer than Harry. So I feel the film will be very good. Although I'm not sure it will replace ESB as the best Star Wars film, as some have suggested.

 

[Paul W]

I wouldn't be suprised if TTT actually turns out with a slightly lower take than FOTR.

I am finding more and more rabib Tolkien fans who were turned off by the changes in FOTR. I'm not sure how many people are out there, but I'm guessing a good many of them will resist the temptation to see the next two movies.

 

[Malcolm R]

I'm with ya, Paul. I wanted to put my TTT gross even higher and AOTC gross even lower, but hedged a little.
I think you're right about AOTC sentiment. Fanbase will turn out, but lots of people were turned off by TPM and I don't think the trailers to date have been all that enticing. There's been no reaction at all from any of the theater audiences I've viewed them with. The first trailers focusing on the love story were very bad, and the most recent trailers are full of whiz-bang special effects but no discernable plot that I can see.

I am finding more and more rabid Tolkien fans who were turned off by the changes in FOTR.

Not sure how anyone thinks this movie could have been made any better within the "Hollywood Studio System." Now, if there were some multi-billionare somewhere who wanted to spend lots of $$$ on a 30-hour adaptation . . . well, I think I'd still stick with PJ's version.

 

[Chris]

Not sure how anyone thinks this movie could have been made any better within the "Hollywood Studio System." Now, if there were some multi-billionare somewhere who wanted to spend lots of $$$ on a 30-hour adaptation . . . well, I think I'd still stick with PJ's version.

Still wouldn't work. I have the unabridged audiobooks (a must) and each is almost 15+ hours.. so you're talking about 40+ hours with no time for visuals.. and there are lots of visuals..

There are a few things that bothered me about FOTR that seemed to be borrowed far more from the animated version then from the books (the initial leave of the shire.. which left out the first meeting of the elves, and the wonder that Sam had of them; the tales of men of the south in Brie...) etc... but that's how it is sometimes. Can't satisfy everyone.. it was still good.

 

[Iain Jackson]

Attack of the Clones: $385 million - This'll be a bit like The Empire Strikes Back, i.e. it'll make loads of money, but won't reach the same level as its predecessor (not to mention the fact that The Phantom Menace left quite a few people disappointed).
The Two Towers: $290 million - Again, sequels tend not to do quite as well, although the Lord of the Rings trilogy is in a slightly different situation. The DVD and video release of FOTR will help.
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets: $265 million - This will be another film suffering because it's a sequel.
Spider-Man: $240 million - I'm sticking my neck out here, but I just think this one is going to do really well.
Men in Black II: $170 million - This will open big ($65 million+) but drop quite quickly.
Red Dragon: $125 million - I haven't seen anyone mention this yet, but I think that this could really do quite well.
Minority Report: $110 million - it doesn't sound like this will be a traditional Spielberg family film, so it won't be smashing any records.
Scooby-Doo: $100 million - like it or not, this film will make money (although the majority of it will be in the first couple of weeks).
The Scorpion King: $70 million - No matter how bad it is, this will still make a bit of money.

 

[Brian Kaz]

My meager prediction:

1. Star Wars: $375-400m

2. Harry Potter: 290-325m

3. The Two Towers: 275-300m

4. Spiderman: 200-250m

5. Men In Black 2: 190-220m

6. Minority Report: 170-200m

These are for if they are any good. Star Wars is the only known "critic-proof" movie of these films. Also, minus $40-50m for any movie with bad reviews.

 

[Terrell]

You may be right about the bad taste from TPM for a lot of people. I still believe that even those people who were disappointed with AOTC is still gonna show up for AOTC, at least once.

 

[Chris Lock]

> The Scorpion King: $70 million

I wondered when someone was gonna mention this movie.

 

[Terrell]

Ok, since you were first Chris, I'll predict that TSK will flop. 48 million is my prediction. Honestly, I've seen TV movies that looked better, at least judging by everything I've seen. And Rock is terrible. Plus, no big stars, at least not anyone that can draw in the big crowds.

 

[TerryRL]

"Attack of the Clones" $390 million
Some fans may have been turned off by TPM, but let's be honest, like that's really gonna stop anyone from seeing it at least once. Despite those fans that were disappointed, TPM still displayed stronger legs than both 'Harry Potter' and FOTR. AOTC will be a much better movie than TPM, but probably won't make as much domestically, I do think it'll make more overseas though. In any event, AOTC is the movie to beat.
"Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets" $285 million
The first film is the second biggest hit in history (worldwide) and I think the sequel will be the #2 film of 2002. 'Chamber of Secrets' will establish 'Potter' as one of the biggest film franchises in history.
"The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers" $270 million
Much like 'Potter', 'The Two Towers' will establish "The Lord of the Rings" as one of the biggest film franchises in the land. Like AOTC as compared to TPM, TTT will very likely be a stronger film than FOTR, but won't earn as much coin domestically.
"Spider-Man" $250 million
Will challenge 1989's "Batman" ($251.1 million) as the biggest superhero hit domestically. This one will open huge and will have made a good chunk of change by the time AOTC opens two weeks later.
"Men in Black II" $215 million
Probably would've been an even bigger hit if released a few years ago, but will still draw in huge crowds and pave the way for MiB 3.
"Ice Age" $200 million
Fox's animated smash has already become the favorite to win next year's Best Animated Feature Oscar. Wouldn't that be something? The first two Animated Feature Oscars not going to Disney. "Lilo and Stitch" and "Treasure Planet" had better be really good if Disney hopes to snag that trophy.
"Minority Report" $185 million
Will have a huge opening, but I'd be surprised if it had strong legs. I think it'll perform very much like the first "Mission: Impossible" movie did ($181 million).
"Austin Powers 3" $170 million
Everyone involved is hinting at this being the finale to the 'Austin Powers' series, but I see them continuing the franchise until they stop making money.
"Spy Kids 2: The Island of Lost Dreams" $165 million
The first one was a surprise hit, the second one won't take anyone by surprise, but it'll still make a lot of coin.
"Red Dragon" $160 million
Though I predict it'll perform at the box office like "Hannibal" did, expect this one to be more like "The Silence of the Lambs" in terms of quality. Director Brett Ratner has a killer cast and I can't wait to check this one out.
Other big hit prospects...
"Die Another Day" $150 million
"Catch Me If You Can" $145 million
"Signs" $140 million
"Mr. Deeds" $135 million
"Analyze That" $130 million
"The Sum of All Fears" $130 million
"The Road to Perdition" $125 million
"Treasure Planet" $125 million
"xXx" $120 million
"Panic Room" $115 million

 

[Dana Fillhart]

Terrell,

I agree with you that SK will likely flop -- I think we've seen a statistically meaningful increase in the amount of Joe Six-Packers out there who have become extremely jaded and wary of movies Hollywood has "formulated for the masses." I'll go a little higher, though, and predict $70m. -- not a total flop, but if it doesn't reach $100m, it probably will be considered as such by the backing studio.

As to MiB -- good question. I think it'll make over $100m, as by that time the Star Wars fervor will have died down somewhat, but I doubt seriously it'll do $200m. I predict $160m.

 

[TerryRL]

I think "The Scorpion King" will have a pretty big opening, the only question is will it have legs? If it's a fun movie than don't be surprised if it does a lot better than most think it will. It has a summer movie feel to it and it opens two weeks before the "Spider-Man" juggernaut.

I honestly think it'll do decent business. Probably in the same vein as "Blade II".

 

[Matthew_Millheiser]

Time to stick me neck out.
The Scorpion King - $75m. Diehard Rock fans and lack of other genre films will give this one a $20-$25m opening, and what looks like crap product will kill it quickly. It looks to have a B.O. arc like A Knight's Tale did last year, only slightly larger in proportion due to the Rock's popularity.
Spiderman - $250m. This movie has got so much momentum going for it, it will make its first $150 million easy before word-of-mouth either sustains its hot momentum or cools it off quickly. AOTC won't destroy it, and spillover crowds will flock to it.
AOTC - $350m. Buzz is high and looks to be a much stronger pic than TPM. Plus it's Star Wars. TPM naysayers are still excited by it, and I guarantee you everyone who hated TPM will still see this movie. Will capture families and adults alike. Won't hit TPM's highs (that had 16 years of buildup in front of it), but will succeed big time!
Minority Report - $100m. Total wildcard. Spielberg is making darker films now, which may not resonate well with dumbass audiences. Witness A.I.. Plus, Tom Cruise in darker, more challenging roles doesn't resonate well with dumbass audiences. Witness Eyes Wide Shut, Vanilla Sky. But it does look way cool.
Austin Powers: Goldmember - $150m. Let's face it: The Spy Who Shagged Me blew, and blew hard. It was an event movie that coasted on the popularity of its cult predecessor and benefitted from the lack of other comedy films in the wake of the TPM behemoth. This will open huge and drop pretty quickly.
Men In Black II - $220m. I wasn't too thrilled with the original, but audiences flocked to it and it cleared an easy $250m. The MIB franchise has maintained its exposure through the crappy cartoon show and way-fun ride at Universal Studios. In other words, it's branded -- when it knows its a man. Humungous opening, but my complete lack of faith in Barry Sonnenfeld's storytelling abilities makes me feel this one will drop, and drop fast.
Harry Potter and the COS - $260m. I'm a huge HP fan, and I was equal parts delighted and frustrated with TSS. I will be back for the sequel, and await it with impish anticipation. The original did great business, but was coasting off of hype and its enormous fan base. Same fan base will return, but some (perhaps many) curiousity seekers who went to the film with no prior knowledge may not return. Still, big numbers are in store. The upcoming release of Book 5 plus the DVD release will do nothing but stoke the fires of this puppy.
LOTR: TTT - $260m. The original did great BO and received critical accolades. Not quite as universally adored as some of the more rabid fanboys would have you believe, but a massive blockbuster nonetheless. The home video releases will remind moviegoers why this was such an enjoyable film. It won't do the business of the original, nor do I suspect it will be up for as many Oscars. But it will score huge indeed.
There's more, but suddenly I am run over by a truck.

 

[Tom Ryan]

Alright, here we go, I'm applying the law of "sequels don't make more money than the films they succeed":

1. AOTC - $350 million. Alright, it's Star Wars. That guarantees it makes megabucks. But the public is still reeling from TPM, and it doesn't have 16 years of anticipation behind it. Despite the fact that this will be superior to TPM, it won't make as much.

2. COS - $290 million. Harry Potter Strikes Back. The books are still hot, and the kiddies loved the first one. It'll do a lot, but not as much as numero uno.

3. TTT - $280 million. A lot of money. The fans will make it almost as big as the first one, and this is less dropoff than the second Potter film.

4. Spider-Man - $220 million. This one won't be too huge. It'll make good money, but it isn't in the league of the top three.

-Tom

 

[StephenC]

Star Wars-$405m

LOTR:TTT-$330m

Harry Potter-$290m

MIB-$220m

Minority Report-$150m

Spider-Man-$130m

XXX-$130m

Austin Powers 3-$125m

James Bond-$105m

Scooby Doo-$90m

It's hard to bet against Speilberg and Cruise not to have a hit.I also think Vin Diesel got a huge following after Fast and the Furious.The teens will love XXX.Spider-Man looks like a huge dissapointment($130m ?).Looking at this list,I'll probably not see all of them but buy the dvds.Go figure.