OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT... (1 Viewer)

[Steve Christou]

Star Wars: Attack of the Clones - $400m+ Its Star Wars it's gonna make a ton of money, Episode I was supposedly a big disappointment and didn't have Luke, Han and Leia in it, and it still grossed nearly a billion dollars worldwide, so I expect similar grosses for this one.
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - $350m It's going to have a huge opening weekend, and that should propel it to bigger grosses than FOTR.
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets - $250m Pottermania will ensure its a big hit, but not as big as the first methinks.
Spiderman - $200m A new franchise is born, maybe.
Minority Report - $175m Spielberg + Cruise = $$$$, hmmm I don't know, many people predicted AI would be a super hit, it only managed $78m total in the US, Harry Potter did more than that in its first 3 days, has Spielberg lost his Midas touch?

 

[Marvin Richardson]

1. Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones - $425 million All the talk about fan backlash will disappear once the movie comes out. It will be a better movie than TPM and more movie-goers will see it more than once. I only saw TPM twice in theatres, and if this one is as good as it looks, it could be in FotR territory with 4+ viewings. All this is predicated on it being a good movie, but that's part of this whole prediction thing, right?
2. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - $325 million Will lose some viewers because they didn't like the first one, but will grab some who were disappointed at the ending because they'll see it is continuing. The raving fan-boys (like me) will see it more times than they did FotR (which means 6+ for me) because it is more action-oriented and has more little details that multiple viewings will pick up. Again, this is assuming it is of the same quality as FotR (not a bad assumption since they were filmed simultaneously) and has the same level of faithfullness to the source material as FotR.
3. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets - $300 million Will lose some viewers from the first movie (those like me who hated it and won't bother) but still has incredible fan support, much like Star Wars and LotR. Slightly less than the first, but it will be pretty darn close.
4. Spider-Man - $175 million Will do well in the short term, but Star Wars will swallow it whole once it comes out, since it is by and large the same audience we're talking about here. I expect this to be a great movie, and will definitely find more life in video.

 

[Matt Pelham]

Call me crazy, but I don't think there's any chance Spiderman will make less than $200 million. Expect a HUGE opening weekend for Spidey

Attack of the Clones - $350 million

Harry Potter - $285 million

Two Towers - $270 million

Spiderman - $250 million (more if it's actually any good)

MIB II - $230 million

Jason X - $50 million

 

[Nick Sievers]

Star Wars - Episode II - Attack of the Clones:- $340million
- Not quite Phantom Menace numbers but I think it will still bring in an impressive haul and be the #1 for 2002. I'm still sure those disappointed with Episode I will be still in line to check it out at least once. Even I must admit, not being a big Episode I fan - it has me very interested.
Spider-Man:- $210million
- Should open big, like most others said, it will drop back when Star Wars is released but I think we should see it hold up fairly well to bring in a nice bundle of cash. Hopefully its good enough for repeat fan-viewings.
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers:- $305million
- I think it will do about the same as Fellowship of the Ring. Despite being a more engrossing story and more epic. Fans will definately be in for the repeast viewings on this one, including myself. Those who viewed FotR at the cinema and didn't like it will be basically cancelled out with the new fans it picks up along the way on Home Video.
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets:- $310million
- Much the same again, we will see the children and adults flock to the cinemas again for another Potter adventure and my prediction is it will only do slightly less business.
Minority Report:- $170million
Men in Black 2:- $190million
Austin Powers 3:- $180million

 

[Donald W]

Ok here goes, I've never posted over here before on this part but here is my imput....

Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones- $300 to $400 million because this should be better than ESP 1...plus it's a Star Wars film and you can't go wrong with that...it's going to be the biggest film of the year

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - $300 to $350 million and the second biggest film of the year...the first one just hit $300 million so this one should have no problems

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets - $250 to $300

It has a big fanbase and should have no problems at all making some good money...will lose some fans that didn't like or care about the first film

Austin Powers 3 - $200 to maybe $275

Another fan base set in place...it's mid summer out of the way from Star Wars and it's about 3 weeks after Men In Black 2 comes out...only thing that could stop it would be Signs or XXX

Men In Black 2 - $200 to $250 or more

It's Will Smith's comeback I hope after Wild Wild West...it's a July 4th film, and the first one wasn't that bad...Plus Tommy Lee Jones is back also

James Bond 20: Die Another Day - $175 million

This is pretty much set in stone that it should make that much...it's the big Thanksgiving film for that weekend besides whats left over from Harry Potter

Spider-Man - $150 to $200 or more if it's good

It should do around $150 million maybe more if it holds up all summer...Star Wars will stop this film dead when it hits May 16

Sum of all Fears $100 to $125

It won't flop but it's coming out 2 weeks after ESP 2 which won't let it make a ton of money...more adults will see this than Star Wars

Films that will at least make there money back or at least make $100 million

Spy Kids 2: The Island of Lost Dreams- at least $75 million...the first one was a suprise hit

Road to Perdition: at least make it's money back or may be a sleeper...it's got Hanks in it

The Powerpuff Girls: make it's money back, at least be the cult film of the summer

Stuart Little 2: at least $50 to $75 million, it's one of the midsummer kids films that makes some money

Simone: make it's money back, may be a sleeper but not sure

Red Dragon- should make it's money back...it's coming out around Halloween...Hannibal made some good money and it has a good cast

Analyze That- if it's as good as the first one it will make some money, it's out at least before the Christmas film rush

Sleeper Hits-

The Bourne Identity- the first sleeper of the summer...should make some money

XXX- this film is going to be the one thats going to come out of nowhere and make some money...it's going to be the The Fast and the Furious of the year

Signs- Looks great and should have no problem making some money...it's got Mel in it

Catch Me if you Can- I bet it's going to be the sleaper of Christmas

Now on to the flops!

Star Trek: Nemesis- it's going up against The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers so I dont' think it's going to make that much money at all...plus TTT has a 2 day start on this film...and the next week Catch will be out which should do well for Christmas

Scooby-Doo- the one summer film thats going to flop big time because we all know it's going to be bad, very bad

Minority Report- it's going to get lost in the rush of the summer...look at what happend to A.I. last summer...I bet Catch will do a whole lot better

Windtalkers- Scooby Doo will do at least $30 it's first weekend then die and that means that this film coming out the same weekend will die a slow death

that is all

 

[Sean Oneil]

Maybe I am crazy, but I expect Spiderman to open HUGE... Although I am a bit surprised that they did not opt to open it on Wednesday the 1'st and go after the record held by The Lost World. I still see this film doing huge numbers. There are a number of commercial tie-ins, there has been steady hype for over a year now, and Sam Rami is a respected director for his cult stuff, as well as his more serious dramas.
Final take for 'Spiderman': in the $280-290 million range if it gets good reviews, $200 million if it does not (I really think that THAT many people just want to see Spiderman on the big screen... we are talking about a superhero with about forty years worth of fans).
'Star Wars, Attack Of The Clones'
BIG!!! If the word of mouth from the average person who sees it is as enthusiastic as Harry Knowles review over at Ain't it cool news, then I would guess it's final take to be over $425 Million. Despite the fact that it is coming soon to DVD according to Lucas himself, I think that if it is as spectacular as it could be, then people will not want to wait the extra few months for the DVD release, and they may feel they NEED to see it on a big screen... NOW!! If word of mouth is unenthusiastic and mixed, then I would downgrade it to $320 million.
'Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers'
I expect no less then Fellowship of the Ring numbers... another three hours, another part of the saga, more fantasy, more effects, and more of what made the first so popular. Just about $300 million
'Harry Potter' I think will do very well, as more of the family fantasy film. I still have yet to see the first one, but the numbers it put up were amazing, so I believe that this one will come close to $300 million... but then again, I would not be (too) shocked if it does not do quite as well as the first, and Spiderman ends up out earning it.
So the final guess (probably way off ) And I will go with the high range:
1. AOTC -$426 million
2. LOTR: TTT -$301 million
3. Spiderman -$284 million
4. Harry Potter -$276 million
These are all just blind guesses.
The last two on the list are a toss up.

 

[Malcolm R]

Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones- $300 to $400 million

Welcome, Donald! But I don't think you're allowed to play by stating "ranges" of up to $100M. Have some confidence in your intuition, man! We won't tease you (too badly) if you're wrong.

 

[Chris]

Attack of the Clones - $420 million - I'm actually thinking this film could be bigger then the first. Here's why: ticket prices are higher, the release will be bigger; and AOTC seems to be a better story then the TPM; more then that, the elements of a love story have a chance to make it more of a good date film. This could do major box office. But I would never bet against a star wars film: as a floor: no lower then $350.

Harry Potter - $305 million - having read the books, Chamber of Secrets is a better book then the original; it is not as good as "Goblet of Fire" which I think could be the first of the more adult crowd ones (but we have to get through "Prisoner.." which I found to be the weakest book of the set) . Harry Potter is more grown up, the magial moments start taking on a different tone; it could be a great film.. the HP sequel, if it goes as the books do, has a chance to be better then it's predecessor.

Two Towers - $300 million - Having learned my lesson the first time, I'm going to bet on TT doing very well. But, in the books, TTT is going to be a tricky one; I think a lot of it will depend on the audience expectations. TTT is really the middle of the book, so there isn't a lot of rising action or conclusions, it really links together FOTR and ROTK. It's a great segment (and I look forward to seeing Shadowfax!) but it will be interesting to see how die hard the audience is. I really think ROTK could be the "big film" of all three.

Spiderman - ~$210 million - I think this is going to have a blockbuster opening weekend... and die quickly.

MIB II - $165 million - Big opening weekend (maybe) but MIB was not a "gigantic blockbuster" and I just don't see this as being "huge"

Spy Kids 2: Probably the "suprise" hit of the summer. No, won't be huge, but I'm betting $90-$125M

Minority Report.. it may be equated with Mission Impossible 2. Does good business.. but not nearly enough. Minority Report runs a risk of really turning in AI like business, with an initial high interest weekend and then nothing. I'm betting it barely scrapes by $100M.

Disney will outpace Dreamworks in a flip this year, as Lilo & Stitch will outpace Stallion.

ST: Nemisis will do between $75-$110M and will by no means "be a flop" but will not be a giant success either. It will keep it's fanbase happy, but not attract a huge extra fanbase.

Scooby Doo should bomb. And any film slated any time in the next two years produced by Saturday Night Live or after a sketch will also bomb. I don't know if any are on the slate, but I'll take that bet at any time.

 

[Dennis Pagoulatos]

Well...this IS Star Wars related so I guess I'll post on it...
Here we go:
AOTC: 350 meelion max---like many have mentioned the word of mouth and hype just isn't anywhere near as high as it was for TPM, though this seems like a much better movie (well at least the CGI seems better!)
TTT: 275 meelion- I think people are going to start getting sick of all these "mega-event" movie things, all of a sudden, everyone and their mother is making a trilogy...personally I'd rather watch "North and South" if I'm going to watch an overlong, badly acted mini-series!
Me and the wife just watched FOTR last night for the 3rd time and really enjoyed it (though I DO think the movie gets pretty repetitive and could have easily been shortened by 20 minutes, but that's just me I guess!)
TTT 4 minute trailer at the end of Fellowship was REALLY impressive...I can't wait!
Harry Potter whatever they call it- $275 meelion- Dammit! I hated this movie...I wanted to choke the life out of that stupid kid! Then again I also think the books are horrible (I couldn't make it through the 1st one no matter how hard my wife tried to make me read it!)
Chris Columbus cannot be allowed to make anymore movies!
First Home Alone, then Bicentennial Man...now this nightmare!
Let's face it, nobody cares about any of the rest of these movies...including the rubbery, lanky 6'-4" tall OBVIOUSLY CGI Spiderman that is played by 5'-4" Tobey Maguire, the Michael J. Fox for the new millenium (no I don't think he's THAT short, but he doesn't come close to matching the CGI thing flying around in all the previews...that being said- $200 meelion max for Spidey, because it's a Sam Raimi film!
-D

 

[Seth Paxton]

Well, I hold my right to revise on the Fall releases once we get closer and can gauge the buzz and environment.
But for now I'm close to Dana's thinking.
1) AOTC - $380m
2) Spiderman - $250m I think this film is showing a lot stronger buzz than originally expected. Plus it reaches down to the smaller kids level I think.
3) Potter : COS - $260m Some of the luster is gone of the pure event of it. The weaker legs than FOTR show Potter to be a bit more event than just a great film. Still the first was entertaining enough for people to go back for more.
4) TTT - $285m It's going to be damn hard for any sequel to perform as well as the first film, just ask Empire. But TTT storyline is probably more of a crowd pleaser for reasons I won't spoil here. So I think it might end up close to FOTR numbers. I can see myself going 5 times again...with the 5th being the ROTK footage viewing.

 

[Malcolm R]

But we have to get through "Prisoner.." which I found to be the weakest book of the set.

Interesting. I thought whispers through the grapevine indicated most fans think "Prisoner of Azkaban" is the best of the four books to date? Then again, I'm the only one so far to pick TTT over AOTC, so my title of "Grand Poobah of Predicting" as bestowed upon me by the Mr. Showbiz Swami may be in jeopardy.

 

[Seth Paxton]

BTW, the last film to open just weeks before a Star Wars film...The Mummy. Any problems Spiderman may have, I doubt it's release date will be the cause.

 

[Terrell]

So you think AOTC won't have any effect on Spiderman? That Spiderman will do just as good if AOTC wasn't even opening this year? Hmm, not sure I agree with that. Mummy did well, but it didn't exactly set the world on fire. The Mummy made just over 13.5 million in TPM's opening weekend. So it's hard to tell if Star Wars had an effect or not. Looking at the figures, it looks as though The Mummy ran out of steam and died quickly, still taking in a very good sum. What's even more amazing is that TPM didn't actually set the world on fire in it's opening weekend, not nearly what I thought it would have made. It made over 64 million. Considering that's not a lot for a film as anticipated as it was, it's phenomenal that it went on to make 431 million dollars domestically. That meant it must have had some serious legs, especially when you take into account that Harry Potter opened with 93 million, and still came up 100 million dollars short of TPM.

I think AOTC makes it money much faster, and doesn't quite have the legs of TPM, simply because of more competition. I'm predicting at least 80 million in it's opening weekend, and 105-115 million in it's first four days.

 

[Dana Fillhart]

But for now I'm close to Dana's thinking.

Stop the presses! Call the NY Times, we have a showstoppin' headline!
Just kiddin'...I'm with ya -- my numbers are early guesstimates, and I reserve the right to fiddle with them as I deem necessary (how's that for legalese?) -- but any such tampering will be done in a separate reply instead of mucking with the originals, just to prove how much I suck at these sort of things

 

[Tino]

Hmmm.........
Still thinking.......

 

[Ricardo C]

1. AOTC: $400 million. Mark my words: EVERY SINGLE fan who hated, liked, or loved TPM WILL sit his/her ass down to watch AOTC. Multiple times, too. I can't tell you how many times at tfn some Comic Book Guy-like armchair critic has verbally destroyed TPM, only to admit he watched it 5+ times in theaters. AOTC owns the #1 spot. People just love SW films, even the "bad" ones. Considering that AOTC is on track to be exponentially better than TPM, I think it can very well martch TPM's box office totals.

2. TTT: $300-$320 million. It will pick up fans thanks to the FOTR DVD, and many of those who felt "burned" by the cliffhanger ending of FOTR will want to see the new installment.

3. HP and the COS: $275 million. I'd expect a slight drop thanks to those who didn't care for Columbus' touch, or for the overly literal adaptation of the book.

4. Spider-Man: $220 million. It'll surpass X-Men's totals, based on name power alone. But the juggernaut known as AOTC will not let it rise higher.

5. Minority Report: $200-$250 million. Spielberg and Cruise? Forget about A.I.'s totals. The talent is red-hot, the premise is fascinating, and many of the people who discovered A.I. through home video will turn up for this one.

 

[Adam_S]

I think one thing many people might forget to consider about Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets is that the fifth book is supposed to come out this fall as well, this could cause a surge in popularity and boost COS's numbers (Maybe if all the Harry Potter films do well enough filmmakers will complain and have them banned from the 'bestgross' list, ala the new york times bestseller list).

that said I think we'll see these as the top five

Attack of the Clones 350-400 million

Harry Potter and the COS 290-330 millin

The Two Towers 300 million (plus or minus twenty)

Lilo and Stitch 270 million

Spiderman 250 million

Adam

 

[Chris]

Interesting. I thought whispers through the grapevine indicated most fans think "Prisoner of Azkaban" is the best of the four books to date? Then again, I'm the only one so far to pick TTT over AOTC, so my title of "Grand Poobah of Predicting" as bestowed upon me by the Mr. Showbiz Swami may be in jeopardy

There are some neat things to like about Prisoner.. and it's not a "bad" book, but I didn't find it nearly as interesting as the Philosopher's Stone or Goblet of Fire. I also thought it had some really rough parts; I've always thought of it as the weakest.. but I'm sure others can disagree

 

[Paul Jenkins]

I'm horrible at predictions, but here goes, in order of gross
1) The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - $425 million First film took most people by surprise, second will be eagerly awaited and hyped all the more. People loved the first movie, and will turn out in droves for the second. Given the increase action and furthering of the storyline, together with the people who for the first time see the DVD and want more, I think this film will skyrocket ahead of all others this year.
2) Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets - $375 million Kids love it, parents love it. Story/plot should be better, if the acting can improve a bit, this movie is a lock at $200 million, if it is good it will skyrocket over that...
3) Attack of the Clones - $240 million My out of left field prediction Unless this movie is completely awesome, it will open huge and die even larger. People who aren't SW fans will NOT go see it if the reviews place it like TPM. If the movie kicks royal arse, and the reviews are positive, then watch out, but I think people have a negative view of AOTC already based on TPM. Of course, I will probably see the film 10 times, so my number is probably $200 million low
4) Minority Report - $220 million Hello, Tom Cruise, remember him? MI-2? Big box office draw, ladies love him. This film will be large.
5) Spiderman - $185 millin I'm basing this on the movie not doing that well in the reviews (C to B ratings). I just have a feeling this movie will not be that great, like Batman without the hype...

 

[DavidAC]

AotC-370-380mil AotC will be a huge hit but TPM did have 16 years of hype going for one of the most fan based trilogies ever, so it will be hard for AotC to do better. Having said that I also believe the summer competition is not as strong as it was for TPM IMO, plus never underestimate SW fans (which includes me) all gladly eat my words if AotC tops over 400.
LotR:TTT-325-350mil FotR was a great movie but quite frankly suprised me at how well it did in the BO. I believe FotR has gotten LotR a large fan base and theyll be eager for TTT come christmas 2002.
Harry Potter:COS-270-290mil Harry Potter I believe will not be as successful as the first. Could be dead wrong though.
Spiderman-200-225mil I think Spiderman will be a fun movie but seriously once AotC comes out Spidermans BO take will take a huge hit.
Austin Powers 3/Minority Report/Men in Black 2-150-200mil Could go either way for these movies but will have respectable numbers nonetheless.
So in the end AotC will reign supreme, and in 2005 EpIII will reign supreme, your pretty much screwed if your up against SW.