OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT... (1 Viewer)

[Matt Stone]

Maybe we can get DonnyG back here so we can hear more "EVERY SHOW WAS SOLD OUT AT MY THEATER!" posts.

 

[James_Kiang]

I went to TTT today hoping that the crowds would have died down. Thank goodness my wife and I got there early as the show ended up to be sold out. Based on this, TTT seems to have a lot more life left at the box office.

Edwin, I'm surprised to hear such a generalization come from you . Clearly, even with the ~50% drop, TTT is indeed still making good money and should have quite a bit more life left in it. To be honest, I did not expect it to out-gross Fellowship (I believe my estimate was $300 mil).
To return to Edwin's quote though, I remember seeing Mystery Men in a packed theater when it came out, thinking it would make some decent money, then being quite surprised to see how low the numbers really were...

 

[TerryRL]

'Chamber of Secrets' has so far tallied $519 million overseas, bringing it's worldwide total to an eye-popping $771 million. TTT has so far earned $560 million worldwide. TTT has already passed the domestic total of COS and it'll be interesting to see if it does the same overseas.

 

[Brian W.]

Anyone care to guess as to when TTT will cross $300 million? It made almost $61 million last week, Monday-Sunday. If it drops no more than 36% this week, it will cross $300 million by the end of Sunday.

However, I'm going to guess it will drop a little more than that, since a new teen flick, "Just Married," is opening wide on Friday. I'm guessing $300 mil. will happen the following Wednesday, January 15th.

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

Edwin, I'm surprised to hear such a generalization come from you.

Well, I sure hope that sellout crowd yesterday wasn't just an anomaly in my area. Some of the audience members were also older (i.e. in their 40's and 50's) and their first time based on some musings before and after the screening.

Its nice to see TTT do so well.

~Edwin

 

[Brian W.]

Well, I've calculated a minimum final total for TTT's US box office. It's based on a 35% depreciation rate, and the first film's weekly drops rarely approached that, so that's why I say it's a minimum.

Rounding last week's total to a flat $61 million, an average weekly drop of 35% would earn it at least $377 million at the box office by the end of April. Like I said, FOTR rarely dropped 35%, so it should do a little better than that.

It probably can't reach $400 mil., though. Even if it could maintain a constant 30% depreciation rate, it would fall about half a million short. But you never know.

 

[Dana Fillhart]

Thanks for that calculation, Brian. I'm betting that TTT will depreciate in the 30's for a few more weekends until it levels to the low 2's to high 1's per weekend, and stays at that level for several weeks. If it's significantly over $360M by that point, and if that point is at least pushed back to the end of February, there's a decent chance it might make $400M taking in $4M/week for the next couple of months. You're right, though, it'll be close!
Also, there's a new thread for discussing 2003 Box Office predictions and other BO-related stuff. It's here. TTT is 2002, but its BO effect can be talked about both there and here.
[/Obligatory thread sales pitch]

 

[Brian W.]

If it's significantly over $360M by that point, and if that point is at least pushed back to the end of February, there's a decent chance it might make $400M taking in $4M/week for the next couple of months.

Yeah, the next 2 or 3 weeks are crucial. If it can keep the weekly depreciation well below 30% for the rest of January, then snag a Best Picture nomination in early February, it could potentially outgross Spider-man.

 

[Claire Panke]

Ummm, Edwin,watch that "older people in their 40's or 50's" stuff.

"Older people" to me are persons in their 60's or 70's!

BTW, boomers were the generation that first made LOTR hugely popular - you do know that, right??? So it's not too surprising they (we) turn up at TTT.

 

[Tom Ryan]

Ummm, Edwin,watch that "older people in their 40's or 50's" stuff.
"Older people" to me are persons in their 60's or 70's!

Now, don't you think that's rather disrespectful towards those chipper septuagenarians who know the only truly old people are in their 80's and 90's ?

 

[Matt Stone]

Haha...you people are all old
...j/k

 

[Brian W.]

Whew, I didn't take into account the New Year's holiday last week for my TTT estimate. Nor was I prepared for the HUGE weekday drops this week (though I should have been--they happened last year). Even if it only drops 20% this weekend (unlikely, since it's losing 4% of its theaters), it would only pull in $20 million for the weekend, for a total week's gross of only about $27 million -- and that's optimistic.

Even at that, it would be over a 50% drop from last week, which would be in line with FOTR for that week last year. I think we're looking more in the range of an $18 million gross for the weekend, plus about $7-8 million from Mon-Thurs. So basically its full week gross will be about equal to the previous weekend's.

Anyway, TTT ain't getting to $300 million till next weekend.