OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT... (3 Viewers)

[Kami]

Can't disagree enough.

Yep!

Grass moves as Gollum's hands and feet hit it, he looks like he is there. What really did it for me was when he pulled Frodo out of the water. That was the moment where I completely forgot he was CG. Unbelievable.

 

[Dennis Pagoulatos]

I think New Line's prediction might be a little high...but not by much...we'll see in a few hours!
BobV: I'm glad you're not seeing what I saw, it makes the whole experience of watching the film more immersive if you're not distracted by stuff like that!
-Dennis

 

[Brian W.]

I suspect New Line is overestimating.

That was my first thought... I mean, it is a little strange that it grossed JUST ENOUGH to put it over $200 million. Fishy. I hope it turns out to be true, but I'm gonna guess the total gross is closer to $198 million.

 

[Seth Paxton]

All I know is that Tino is riding New Line for overestimation again. I don't suppose it has/had anything to do with his lame $175m (revised from 125 IIRC) FOTR guess and his equally lame $225m TTT guess?
Now if we could get New Line to hire Tino the 2 would cancel each other out in going over and under on their estimates. :p)

 

[Dave Mansell]

To be fair to Tino, the weekday figures last year were more often overestimates than underestimates, however as Brandon has made clear, New Line do not normally do day by day estimates at all. They usually only do them Thursday and Sunday, so it's not surprising if their weekday estimates are not as accurate as they could be.

On this particular case, if the figure got close enough to the $200m mark, New Line would be very tempted to add a few 100k to tip it over the top.

 

[Joshua_Y]

I saw it for my 9th time yesterday and it was sold out! Its doin amazing business!

 

[Joshua_Y]

Grass moves as Gollum's hands and feet hit it, he looks like he is there. What really did it for me was when he pulled Frodo out of the water. That was the moment where I completely forgot he was CG. Unbelievable.

I dont think Gollum interacted all that well with the ground, which is why many of the shots are close-ups to kinda hide the fact that he doesnt interact well with grass, etc. Watch the final scene where hes talkin to himself, he is just NOT interacting, hes moving over the ground in that CG way that just says ICKY!

Now, Yoda on the other hand, he interacts perfectly IMO. :wink:

 

[Dominik Droscher]

Joshua_Y, for one good example of his environment interaction watch the scene where he fights Frodo and Sam closely. He moves the blanket. Another example is when Frodo removes the rope around his neck, seamless. And the interaction with the hobbits is simply amazing. Forget Yoda, Gollum is the best CGI character ever created to date, and not only from a technical point of view.
But this should be better discussed in the appropriate discussuion thread.

 

[Malcolm R]

On this particular case, if the figure got close enough to the $200m mark, New Line would be very tempted to add a few 100k to tip it over the top.

I would. All the press ever reports is the estimates anyway. Why not get the free publicity?

 

[Patrick Sun]

Anyone know how many Movie Cash tickets were used for TTT? They expire as of tomorrow night. Could theaters be unethical and redeem the movie cash tickets for the full $10.50 (or whatever their evening ticket price is), which would pump up the gross a little bit, or are there accounting safeguards that lock in the Movie Cash ticket amount based on the time of day (matinee vs. evening showing) it was used?

 

[Malcolm R]

I'm not sure the MovieCash counts at all toward the gross. When I used mine, my stub indicated it was a "FREE" ticket. To me, that implies that $0.00 was credited toward TTT for my ticket.

I would think abuse of the MC would be rampant, but perhaps participating theaters have to provide statements as to their admission prices at each theater? Or at least a chain-wide "average"? I used mine for a $4 matinee (and their evening price is only $6). I'd think the theater would be sorely tempted to claim the entire $10.50, especially since this is a Hoyts theater that has had it's a** kicked by a locally-owned independent that opened a year ago with stadium seating and all digital sound.

 

[Malcolm R]

I suspect New Line is overestimating.

TTT Actual: $48,875,549 (per BO Mojo)
Oh ye of little faith!

 

[Patrick Sun]

When I used my Movie Cash for a TTT ticket, I got a $6 matinee ticket in exchange. The theaters will be presenting all the Movie Cash tickets in return for cold hard cash!

 

[Dennis Pagoulatos]

Dominik: joshua is right about the scene he is referring to. Look closely the next time you see the film. The scenes you refer to were all motion capture, that's why the interaction is more believable, because Serkis was there doing those exact things!
But you are right...let's move this to the Discussion Thread...and focus on...
the unbelievable box office performance of TTT!! Holy crap! I am stunned at how well it's doing, especially considering the length of the film. Obviously, word of mouth is mostly good! It could make $325 million at this pace...

 

[Brian W.]

It could make $325 million at this pace...

It could...but don't forget Attack of the Clones reached $200 million in the same 12-day period, and the standard version peaked out at around $302 million. If TTT doesn't get a Best Picture nomination, it's possible it could still gross less than FOTR.

But at $200,058,231 in 12 days, and with the extra holiday this week, it should easily shoot past $250 million by the end of next weekend.

 

[Malcolm R]

If TTT doesn't get a Best Picture nomination, it's possible it could still gross less than FOTR.

The nominations aren't even announced until February, correct? (EDIT: February 11 to be exact...just checked.) By then, it'll likely be over $300 million anyway.

 

[Seth Paxton]

Well, if TTT runs at an EQUAL pace to FOTR starting now (which would mean a drop to fall down to the FOTR level), then it would reach about $320m by Oscar noms. FOTR went from about $155 day 12 to $275 by the Feb noms.

Also, as I mentioned before, FOTR had Black Hawk Down open after it. Catch Me is a fine film and is doing good money, but BHD did 28m, 30m, 17m it's first 3 wide release weekends, so the competition is actually extremely similar.

Also, Oceans 11 was still making 26m during this week last year as FOTR competition. Potter did 16m, Vanilla Sky did 16m, Jimmy Neutron did 22m, and Monsters Inc was still running hard at 9m.

This year we have Catch Me doing 30m, but this Potter is already down to 6.5m, Gangs (the BHD of this year in terms of violence/action/adult themes) is only at 11m. Thornberries is only going at 7m at this point even.

Only the female oriented Maid and 2 Weeks are drawing any BO outside the big 2, both in the 12-16m range.

So you have a lot more buzz, less competition, a film that is no longer than the last one...these are all the things I was pointing to many months ago. Until Chicago hits TTT could be running strong.

As for AOTC, that film had a 40% and then a 50% drop it's 2nd and 3rd weekend, which strongly pointed to a quick demise after the huge opening. After that it was 30, 40, 40...

TTT dropped about 23%, not 40 or 50. And before you scream holiday, AOTC had Memorial Day early on and I am comparing the FRI-SUN numbers only which weren't holiday weekdays in either case. For reference FOTR dropped around 18% (rough estimate without doing the math) on it's 2nd weekend.

BTW, I think TTT IS TAPPING OUT THE BO. FOTR did not reach it's entire audience because despite a fanbase, the story was NOT in the popular culture (like Potter was/is). FOTR the film changed all that. ROTK might be able to hit TTT numbers, but it won't do what TTT is doing to FOTR.

 

[TerryRL]

After only 12 days, TTT has earned $403 million worldwide. The film is running 30% ahead of the pace of FOTR, which took in a total of $860 million worldwide.

The worldwide cume of "Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets" has reached a staggering $700 million in only 7 weeks of release. Amazing.

 

[Eric Franklin]

Monday Estimates from Showbizdata.

LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS 10.41 210.47 -29.5%

CATCH ME IF YOU CAN 6.14 54.82 -30%

TWO WEEKS NOTICE 3.43 46.47 -23%

MAID IN MANHATTAN 2.75 59.70

GANGS OF NEW YORK 2.24 32.12

WILD THORNBERRYS, THE 2.09 20.50

HARRY POTTER AND THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS 1.82 242.13

DRUMLINE 1.49 38.10

HOT CHICK, THE 1.12 23.32

DIE ANOTHER DAY .99 147.69

 

[Brian W.]

The nominations aren't even announced until February, correct? (EDIT: February 11 to be exact...just checked.) By then, it'll likely be over $300 million anyway.

I'm just saying we're assuming it will continue at this pace, and we don't know that for sure. It's very early in the run, and there's been an extra holiday each week for the past two weeks. It could have a 50% drop next week, for all we know.

But it could well be past $300 mil. by Oscar noms. After all, FOTR was at $271 mil. when the nominations were announced. It grossed about another $42 million after that over a six-month period. I don't think FOTR would have hit $300 mil. if it hadn't been for all its Oscar noms.