*** Official "2003 Box Office Prediction and Discussion" Thread (1 Viewer)

[Tino]

The actuals are in and ROTK grossed $1 million less than estimated..$72.6 million..shades of FOTR
Matt, I think ROTK will play well into April, especially since it will win Best Picture and Best Director!
BTW, Mona Lisa Smile also came in less than estimated with $11.5 million.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

It will be interesting to see what kind of legs this film has. I'm used to the Reloaded/Revolutions flicks dropping off the face of the planet after the opening weekend.

I see no reason that such a drop would occur. Unquestionably it'll fall some next week, but given its rapturous reception, I doubt it'll dip too much. Since the past two did really well, there's absolutely no reason this one won't follow suit, especially since many seem to like it best of all! Heck, it might not dip at ALL given that I'm sure a lot of people skipped it in its first week because they wanted to avoid the teeming masses of fans...

 

[Paul_Scott]

Heck, it might not dip at ALL given that I'm sure a lot of people skipped it in its first week because they wanted to avoid the teeming masses of fans...

i'm jonesing to see it, but i would just as soon avoid all the crowds. i'll probably end up going once the kids go back to school and catch a matinee- so its still got my $8 to look forward to.

 

[Patrick Sun]

The reason why ROTK won't do a Revolutions-like drop is because ROTK gave the people what they wanted, and did its best to tug at the emotional heartstrings for its conclusion. The average movie-goer eats this stuff up.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

i'm jonesing to see it, but i would just as soon avoid all the crowds. i'll probably end up going once the kids go back to school and catch a matinee- so its still got my $8 to look forward to.

So if we see a weekly take of $8 for ROTK, New Line will know who to thank!

 

[Matt Stone]

The reason why ROTK won't do a Revolutions-like drop is because ROTK gave the people what they wanted, and did its best to tug at the emotional heartstrings for its conclusion. The average movie-goer eats this stuff up.

Well, obviously. I wasn't saying that I feared ROTK would have a Revolutions-like drop...I was saying that it will be a nice change of pace to see a film stay in the spotlight for an extended period of time.
I hope you're right, Tino

 

[Kevin Grey]

It will likely drop slightly quicker than TTT which dropped quicker than Fellowship. Also like TTT, the films higher initial gross should allow it to outgross the previous entry despite the quicker drop.

This says nothing to the movie's quality. ROTK is going to be more frontloaded simply for the fact that its the finale and audiences are likely to want to find out what happens earlier so they can join in as they hear others talk about it. I would expect the movie to end up with $350-370 million. Pretty impressive that each film grosses more than the previous installment considering all three will clear $300 million. A best picture win could boost it a bit but everyone with interest will likely have seen it by then anyway.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

A best picture win could boost it a bit but everyone with interest will likely have seen it by then anyway.

Yup - it'll probably be like Titanic, which didn't experience any Oscar "bump" at all. Of course, the fact it was still making $20 million+ a week three months after its release had something to do with that.

 

[Patrick Sun]

I tend to think that ROTK can't sustain the momentum to go over $330 million. Time will tell. Most conclusions to trilogies will have that "satisfied" movie-goer effect working against multiple screenings of the 3rd film in a trilogy.

I also don't think ROTK is a lock for either Best Film or Best Director.

 

[Scott Weinberg]

Wanna bet?

 

[Llappin]

ROTK did $13,600,000 on Monday. In second spot was “Mona Lisa Smiled” with $2,311,494.

 

[Matt Stone]

Any predictions for ROTK's Christmas take?

 

[Sean Laughter]

Wanna bet?

Never doubt the size of Weinstein's wallet.

 

[Craig S]

I tend to think that ROTK can't sustain the momentum to go over $330 million. Time will tell. Most conclusions to trilogies will have that "satisfied" movie-goer effect working against multiple screenings of the 3rd film in a trilogy.

??? What "satisfied movie-goer effect"? With all due respect, this sounds like something you just pulled out of your hat. We really have no history here, since RotK is arguably the first REALLY satisfying 3rd film of a trilogy. I do know from the RotK thread that MANY of us have already seen the film multiple times.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

quote:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I also don't think ROTK is a lock for either Best Film or Best Director.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Wanna bet?

I'm with Scott here. Unless there's some terrible backlash against ROTK between now and the Oscars, I don't see how it CAN'T win. If it'd been a somewhat iffy flick, that'd be one thing, but given its virtually universal plaudits, it merits consideration as BP all on its own. Given the amazing feat of three such flicks back to back to back, it seems highly unlikely the Academy won't want to honor Jackson and crew. If something incredibly strongly received - like Schindler's List - also came out this year, I'd think there'd be some competition, but frankly, the other flicks regarded as in contention don't seem all that noteworthy.

If ROTK doesn't win BP, I'll eat a bug!

 

[Kevin Grey]

This probably belongs in the Oscar thread but I don't think the Weinstein's have a chance this time. Cold Mountain is getting a very mixed reception and isn't really accessible enough to cross over and get "the popular vote." They will definitely get a best pic nom though.

At this point ROTK's chief Oscar competition is Mystic River. There may be a late game play for In America similar to The Pianist.

 

[Tino]

BOM has a Tuesday estimate up for ROTK already...$12.8 million.
Of course there is no guarantee that ROTK has BP and BD locked. Oscar history's odds are against it.
But I believe in this instance, those odds don't apply.
Imagine the outcry if it doesn't win??
Btw, as satisfied as I am with it, I will still be seeing it multiple times in the theater.

 

[Matt Stone]

Amen, Reverend Tino...Amen

 

[Malcolm R]

A Weta, perhaps?

 

[Paul_Scott]

Imagine the outcry if it doesn't win??

Buffy TVS was one of the best dramas on tv, yet it was never nominated for an emmy.
i don't think ROTK is a lock for anything.
the closest to a lock would be Jackson-
LOTRs largeness may work against it and members may feel that since everybody else will be voting for, they can afford to vote for an 'underdog' choice