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*** Official "2003 Box Office Prediction and Discussion" Thread

Discussion in 'Movies' started by Dana Fillhart, Dec 30, 2002.

  1. Matt Stone

    Matt Stone Well-Known Member

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    Wow! Now that's some relatively unexpected news.
     
  2. TerryRL

    TerryRL Well-Known Member

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    Friday Estimates

    #1 "Just Married" $6.2 million
    #2 "Catch Me If You Can" $4.5 million ($109.2 million)
    #3 "The Two Towers" $3.9 million ($272.8 million)
    #4 "Two Weeks Notice" $2.2 million ($74.3 million)
    #5 "About Schmidt" $1.7 million ($16.9 million)
    #6 "Chicago" $1.6 million ($13.2 million)
    #7 "Maid in Manhatten" $1.5 million ($80.3 million)
    #8 "Gangs of New York" $1.4 million ($51.4 million)
    #9 "Antwone Fisher" $1.1 million
    #10 "Narc" $963K ($1.3 million)
     
  3. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Well-Known Member

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    Didn't this happen last fall with "Swimfan"? All the little teeny-boppers flocked to a piece of trash just because it was new?
    I also think TTT has saturated the marketplace more than FOTR did. I tried unsuccessfully to see FOTR twice last year in January and couldn't get in because it was still selling out in advance, then when I finally did get in during February/March, those shows were still selling out as well. But during all this time, FOTR was only showing on one screen. This year, TTT has been on two screens at this same theater since opening day. So, a lot of the people that gave FOTR it's exceptional legs have already been able to see it multiple times, rather than waiting until March to do so. It should still end up around $325-330M.
    And don't forget, holiday weekend coming up next weekend! [​IMG]
     
  4. MikeRS

    MikeRS Well-Known Member

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    Oh. My. [​IMG]
     
  5. Adam_S

    Adam_S Well-Known Member

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    Also many school kids are back in school now, and more and more college students are returning. My guess would be that the college crowd died down quite a lot this weekend because of returning to school or last minute parties, and as someone else said there was a lot of market saturation on TTT this time around, TTT is also losing the older crowd to CMIYC which is getting great word of mouth, and all the new oscar releases going into wider and wider releases--for instance in the medium size city I hail from there was absolutely no new releases between Catch Me If you Can (Dec. 25) and yesterday, but yesterday brought in Antwone Fischer, About Schmidt, and Just Married. I also expect Just Married to perform like Swimfan, about an 18 million weekend it looks like now and unlikely to make another 18 million (to a cumulative of 36) in its entire theatrical run. At least thats how I hope it performs. [​IMG] I hope that TTT continues to post 10million or better for several more weeks, but if it doesn't its not a big deal, the series is already exceeded beyond initial expectations and become quite profitable; those geeks amongst us just want it to succeed for bragging rights (come on! it has to make more than Attack of the Clones!).
    Adam
     
  6. Brian W.

    Brian W. Well-Known Member

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    Box Office Mojo is projecting, based on Friday's estimates, for Just Married at 16.7, TTT at 15.5 and Catch Me If You Can at 15. 15.5 would only about a 38% drop for TTT, which is what was initially estimated. So TTT is performing as expected, it's simply that Just Married did WAY better than anyone thought.

    I suspected this might happen last night when Zap2it.com was showing Just Married as the top movie showtime search.
     
  7. Brian W.

    Brian W. Well-Known Member

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    Here are Zap2It's most-searched movie times as of 1:00 a.m. Sunday morning. They are updated hourly. It will be interesting to see how their rank matches the actuals when they're released Monday. I bet it turns out to be a very good indicator.

    1 Just Married
    2 Catch Me If You Can
    3 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
    4 About Schmidt
    5 Two Weeks Notice
    6 Adaptation
    7 Antwone Fisher
    8 Gangs of New York
    9 25th Hour
    10 Kangaroo Jack
    11 Chicago
    12 Narc
    13 Maid in Manhattan
    14 Drumline
    15 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
    16 The Wild Thornberrys Movie
    17 My Big Fat Greek Wedding
    18 The Hot Chick
    19 Far from Heaven
    20 Die Another Day
    21 Star Trek: Nemesis
    22 Bowling for Columbine
    23 Treasure Planet
    24 Analyze That
    25 8 Mile
    26 The Pianist
    27 Empire
    28 Barbershop
    29 Frida
    30 The Hours
    31 Pinocchio
    32 The Emperor's Club
    33 Sweet Home Alabama
    34 Tuck Everlasting
    35 Nicholas Nickleby
    36 Darkness Falls
    37 Rabbit-Proof Fence
    38 The Fast and the Furious 2
    39 The Ring
    40 jackass the movie
    41 The Santa Clause 2
    42 Real Women Have Curves
    43 Evelyn
    44 Signs
    45 Biggie and Tupac
    46 Jeepers Creepers 2
    47 I Spy
    48 Friday After Next
    49 Solaris
    50 The Truth About Charlie
     
  8. TerryRL

    TerryRL Well-Known Member

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    Weekend Estimates

    #1 "Just Married" $18.0 million
    #2 "The Two Towers" $14.9 million ($283.6 million)
    #3 "Catch Me If You Can" $14.7 million ($119.7 million)
    #4 "Two Weeks Notice" $6.7 million ($79.0 million)
    #5 "About Schmidt" $6.2 million ($21.2 million)
    #6 "Chicago" $5.6 million ($17.1 million)
    #7 "Maid in Manhatten" $5.0 million ($83.7 million)
    #8 "Gangs of New York" $5.0 million ($55.1 million)
    #9 "Antwone Fisher" $3.8 million ($10.4 million)
    #10 "Adaptation" $2.9 million ($9.4 million)

    "Just Married" shocked the industry this weekend with it's very potent $18 million debut. It's doubtful that the movie will have any kind of longevity, but you never know. I predicted this one to make about $40 million, which would be a very nice haul for the romantic comedy.

    Next weekend will see the releases of "National Security", "Kangaroo Jack" and "A Guy Thing". Expect 'Security' and 'Jack' to battle it out for the top slot next week. With "Just Married" opening so big, it's safe to say that January is going to be a very strong month at the box office.
     
  9. Sean Laughter

    Sean Laughter Well-Known Member

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    Does Kangaroo Jack actually have any buzz to warrant thinking it will open big? The commercials looks pretty stupid to me and no one I know is interested in seeing it (yes, I know there are people that go to the movies that I don't know [​IMG] )
     
  10. Peter Kline

    Peter Kline Well-Known Member

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    The continued dumbing down of movies (and audiences):
     
  11. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Well-Known Member

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  12. Sean Laughter

    Sean Laughter Well-Known Member

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    Yes, but a "hip hopping" kangaroo, please tell me the public is better than THAT!! [​IMG]
     
  13. Timothy Alexander

    Timothy Alexander Well-Known Member

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    You'd be surprised.
     
  14. Aaron Cooke

    Aaron Cooke Well-Known Member

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    I'm thinking that Kangaroo movie is supposed to appeal more to kids. At least my 5 year old son wants to see it, and they've been advertising it a lot on Nickelodeon. It does look pretty stupid though.
     
  15. Matt Stone

    Matt Stone Well-Known Member

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    Don't allow him to see it [​IMG]
    ...j/k, I'm sure if I had a child I'd be going to Snow Dogs, etc too.
     
  16. Patrick Sun

    Patrick Sun Moderator
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    Just Married had a big promo campaign on TV for the week leading up to last Friday. Plus the trailer looks pretty funny (I realize you can't sustain that sort of "funny" for a long stretch, though). I am not surprise Just Married did well in its initial week of release, but I don't think it'll have legs, I expect a 50%-60% dropoff in next weekend's BO.
     
  17. Edwin Pereyra

    Edwin Pereyra Well-Known Member

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  18. Joel C

    Joel C Well-Known Member

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    I predict that "And now he hoppin' away" will become the hot new catch phrase that all the kids will be repeating.
     
  19. Brian W.

    Brian W. Well-Known Member

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    What a difference a day makes. Monday estimates have Two Towers back on top, followed closely by CMIYC, and Just Married way down at number three.
     
  20. Dana Fillhart

    Dana Fillhart Well-Known Member

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    Here are the top 30 for last weekend and the upcoming films. I'll update the Year Totals in the first post of the thread, as well as the weekend gross-guessers (if any), and add my comments, some time tomorrow.

    FILMS IN THEATRES FOR THE WEEKEND OF
    17 Jan 2003Title
    (Studio)Release Date (Week #)
    Current/max theatresWeekend Tally / Grand TotalClosest Guess Big Shot's Funeral
    Columbia Pictures17 Jan 2003 (0, L)
    ?/?(?)(?) City of God
    Miramax Films17 Jan 2003 (0, L)
    ?/?(?)(?) Close, Closed, Closure
    First Run Features / Icarus Films15 Jan 2003 (0, L)
    ?/?(?)(?) * Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
    Miramax Films31 Dec 2002 (2)
    ?/?(?)(?) Divine Intervention
    Avatar Films17 Jan 2003 (0, L)
    ?/?(?)(?) A Guy Thing
    MGM/UA17 Jan 2003 (0)
    ?/?(?)(?) Kangaroo Jack
    Warner Bros.10 Jan 2003 (0)
    ?/?(?)(?) Kira's Reason
    First Run Features17 Jan 2003 (0, L)
    ?/?(?)(?) National Security
    Columbia Pictures17 Jan 2003 (0)
    ?/?(?)(?) P.S. Your Cat Is Dead!
    TLA Releasing17 Jan 2003 (0, L)
    ?/?(?)(?)
    PREVIOUS TOTALS FOR THE WEEK ENDING
    12 Jan 2003
    1Just Married
    20th Century Fox10 Jan 2003 (1)
    2,766 / 2,766$17,548,993 / $17,548,993-2* The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
    New Line Cinema18 Dec 2002 (4)
    3,477 / 3,622$14,755,406 / $283,421,517-3* Catch Me If You Can
    Dreamworks Distribution, LLC25 Dec 2002 (3)
    3,225 / 3,225$14,630,444 / $119,370,261-4* Two Weeks Notice
    Warner Bros.20 Dec 2002 (4)
    2,755 / 2,755$6,833,423 / $78,993,281-5* About Schmidt
    New Line Cinema13 Dec 2002 (5)
    865 / 865$6,403,691 / $21,957,264-6* Chicago
    Miramax Films27 Dec 2002 (3)
    362 / 362$5,690,875 / $17,171,239-7* Maid in Manhattan
    Columbia Pictures13 Dec 2002 (5)
    2,926 / 3,050$5,144,633 / $83,850,874-8* Gangs of New York
    Miramax Films20 Dec 2002 (4)
    2,340 / 2,340$4,829,938 / $54,925,876-9* Antwone Fisher
    Fox Searchlight Pictures19 Dec 2002 (4)
    1,007 / 1,007$3,783,122 / $10,434,944-10* The Wild Thornberrys Movie
    Paramount Pictures20 Dec 2002 (4)
    2,608 / 3,012$2,844,770 / $35,165,937-11* 25th Hour
    Touchstone Pictures19 Dec 2002 (4)
    490 / 490$2,832,622 / $3,456,790-12* Narc
    Paramount Pictures20 Dec 2002 (4)
    822 / 822$2,825,807 / $3,175,704-13* Drumline
    20th Century Fox13 Dec 2002 (5)
    1,534 / 1,837$2,803,256 / $51,359,523-14* Adaptation.
    Columbia Pictures6 Dec 2002 (6)
    560 / 560$2,636,924 / $9,187,001-15* Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
    Warner Bros.15 Nov 2002 (9)
    1,550 / 3,682$2,408,476 / $255,449,301-16* My Big Fat Greek Wedding
    IFC Films19 Apr 2002 (39)
    1,212 / 2,016$2,102,547 / $230,876,712-17* The Hot Chick
    Touchstone Pictures13 Dec 2002 (5)
    1,601 / 2,246$1,718,807 / $32,543,830-18* Die Another Day
    MGM/UA22 Nov 2002 (8)
    1,180 / 3,314$1,489,564 / $156,156,363-19* Star Trek: Nemesis
    Paramount Pictures13 Dec 2002 (5)
    1,777 / 2,711$1,038,702 / $41,614,360-20* The Pianist
    Focus Films / Miramax Films27 Sep 2002 (3)
    161 / 161$1,019,754 / $2,414,040-21* The Lion King (IMAX)
    Buena Vista Pictures / Disney27 Dec 2002 (3)
    66 / 66$930,921 / $7,207,036-22* The Hours
    Paramount Pictures29 Nov 2002 (3)
    45 / 45$907,621 / $2,196,461-23* Treasure Planet
    Buena Vista Pictures / Disney27 Nov 2002 (7)
    759 / 3,227$544,843 / $36,560,387-24* Far from Heaven
    IFC Films8 Nov 2002 (10)
    291 / 291$498,551 / $11,971,502-25* Habla con Ella (Talk to Her)
    Sony Pictures Classics22 Nov 2002 (8)
    65 / 65$383,249 / $2,851,514-26* Frida
    Focus Films / Miramax Films25 Oct 2002 (12)
    237 / 794$381,650 / $21,900,693-27* Analyze That
    Warner Bros.6 Dec 2002 (6)
    502 / 2,635$374,326 / $31,507,422-28* Bowling for Columbine
    MGM/UA11 Oct 2002 (14)
    204 / 248$352,609 / $16,631,101-29* Empire
    Arenas Entertainment / Universal Studios6 Dec 2002 (6)
    324 / 869$328,860 / $17,188,725-30* Rabbit-Proof Fence
    Miramax Films27 Nov 2002 (7)
    94 / 94$321,667 / $2,144,138-
    ...
    >30Blue Collar Comedy Tour
    Warner Bros.10 Jan 2003 (1)
    - / - / ->30* Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
    Miramax Films31 Dec 2002 (2)
    5 / 5$81,812 / $308,027->30P.S. Your Cat Is Dead!
    TLA Releasing10 Jan 2003 (1)
    - / - / ->30The Slaughter Rule
    Cowboy Booking International10 Jan 2003 (1)
    2 / 2$1,464 / $2,523->30The Son
    New Yorker Films10 Jan 2003 (1)
    - / -$10,048 / $10,048-
     

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